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Old 11-29-2014, 04:11 PM   #8176
11t
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Fwiw i think 10k at a 200xbb game with regular straddles is inevitable but straddling is way less prevalent in Vegas than other places
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:01 PM   #8177
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by 11t View Post
Fwiw i think 10k at a 200xbb game with regular straddles is inevitable but straddling is way less prevalent in Vegas than other places
I pretty sure it's understood we are talking 20BI in standard 100BB game, Obv if you buy in for 200BB, and most of table is buying in for more than 100BB, or if there is a mandatory straddle, then u can't compare it to a normal game. If your average buy in is 1k then a 20BI downswing is $20k, not $10k.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:05 PM   #8178
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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10k+ at what stake?

Plausible for 2/5 100bbs but 5/T+ i would be very surprised
the discussion was 20+buy ins at 2/5...so I was referring to 2/5 game. For what its worth I buy in at 2/5 for 1k and most of my pals do as well...none of whom have gone on a 10K+ downswing at 2/5
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:50 PM   #8179
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Update: I am on a 2 BI downswing currently because these fools can't lay down TP2k to a 3 barrel bluff shove.


I need to move up to 5/T where the swings aren't so bad.
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Old 11-29-2014, 05:59 PM   #8180
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Update: I am on a 2 BI downswing currently because these fools can't lay down TP2k to a 3 barrel bluff shove.


I need to move up to 5/T where the swings aren't so bad.
Or you could move down where your upswing is BIx2
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Old 11-29-2014, 08:21 PM   #8181
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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the discussion was 20+buy ins at 2/5...so I was referring to 2/5 game. For what its worth I buy in at 2/5 for 1k and most of my pals do as well...none of whom have gone on a 10K+ downswing at 2/5
You have to assume that 1) no one is misreporting (lol ego) and 2) sufficient sample size - as i recall you have mentioned on multiple times that you have seen more people entering and leaving this poker-pro business than you can remember. Are you saying that throughout your 7 years every single one of your friends that you had this 10BI conversation with is still around and still never had a 10BI downswing?

Fwiw, I know for a fact that a few players you/or most people would consider good have lost 10k+ in a row before, some multiple times.

Downswing CAN be a player's excuse for playing poorly (and most of the times it is), but very rarely it might just be variance. Im saying while it's usually easy (and correct) to go with the former, the latter does happen.

Poker skill isnt black and white - you aren't either "good" or "bad". Most players have various numbers of leaks and they are just a LOT more amplified when cards arent falling their way. When a person is running hot it's just too easy to tell someone else that they are bad, even though they themselves might be no better.
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Old 11-29-2014, 08:50 PM   #8182
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Biggest factors to my 21-bi downswing were

Accumulated tilt
playing like a hero
not being good at poker
No patience

I think that's everyone's problem
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Old 11-29-2014, 09:04 PM   #8183
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been slightly above break even for the last 50-100 hours and I'd say various rearrangements of Duke's list pretty much nail it.

I think it's pretty tough for all of a 20BI downswing to be variance simply because by the time you're halfway there, you're likely to start contributing to the problem on your own.
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:38 PM   #8184
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Snowball's smart.

Current winners think they can use their tiny sample size of a few thousand hours or whatever and then extrapolate it. It doesn't work that way. You'd need way more
hands in order to try something like that.

They also think whoever busted their roll or chose to stop playing for whatever reason just wasn't good enough to win.

unless all your pals are 40 year vets, you just don't have a big enough sample size to draw any hard conclusions (other than you're a winner)
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:44 PM   #8185
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Discussion has gone full ******
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:49 PM   #8186
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

100k hour sample or gtfo.

Everyone that went broke was running bad and had zero leaks (obviously).
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:49 PM   #8187
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No kidding.
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:52 PM   #8188
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
100k hour sample or gtfo.

Everyone that went broke was running bad and had zero leaks (obviously).


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Old 11-29-2014, 10:53 PM   #8189
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How do I know if i suck at the poker and am just on a lifetime heater?
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Old 11-29-2014, 10:57 PM   #8190
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You don't, unless you have tracked a million hands.
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Old 11-29-2014, 11:05 PM   #8191
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Coming from online where a 50-100k hand sample (one month of play) isn't hard data, or even an entire year isn't enough... I think it's funny to see live players think a few thousand hours is large enough to make predictions or even generalizations about all live players swings

but you guys can think whatever you want. I didn't mean to bruise anyones ego. All of you are crushers who will never go on a downswing. Ever. I'd tell you good luck but you guys obviously don't need it
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Old 11-29-2014, 11:16 PM   #8192
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Siculamente View Post
Coming from online where a 50-100k hand sample (one month of play) isn't hard data, or even an entire year isn't enough... I think it's funny to see live players think a few thousand hours is large enough to make predictions or even generalizations about all live players swings

but you guys can think whatever you want. I didn't mean to bruise anyones ego. All of you are crushers who will never go on a downswing. Ever. I'd tell you good luck but you guys obviously don't need it
Then you should also know that the variance in onlinegames where people mass multitabling with often razorthin edges is something very different.

I often play with an experienced reg who plays usually 2 games every week. Between 10 and 20 hours pr week on average,little more on holidays and so on. He has done this for more than 10 years straight now and is winning in the game every single year.

Do you want me to tell him that he dont have a large enough samplesize to predict if he is a winning player and that the downswing of his life is just around the corner? I mean are you serious?

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Old 11-29-2014, 11:18 PM   #8193
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry. I'm just a live fish. I'll let y'all git back to yer discussion
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Old 11-29-2014, 11:30 PM   #8194
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Live /= online so trying to compare winrates and results is pointless. So all we can go off of experiences of winning players.

I will say I think mtt variance will never be overcome live simply due to the top heavy nature of them.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:17 AM   #8195
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I remember reading somewhere that 50K hand breakeven stretch online for winning players happen a fair amount of the time. Something like once or twice per year in 200nl or 400nl. That is pretty striking to me since to me, this means 50K hand as a sample size is somewhat unreliable.
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:29 AM   #8196
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Parallelflux View Post
I remember reading somewhere that 50K hand breakeven stretch online for winning players happen a fair amount of the time. Something like once or twice per year in 200nl or 400nl. That is pretty striking to me since to me, this means 50K hand as a sample size is somewhat unreliable.
Variance is correlated to bb/100 so 50k is very reliable live if you are winning 30bb/100
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Old 11-30-2014, 12:30 AM   #8197
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will lay 500-1 that I won't have a losing year in the next five years if anyone wants to book.
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Old 11-30-2014, 06:31 AM   #8198
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Lol how much action are you willing to take? Sounds like a terrible proposition for you.
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Old 11-30-2014, 08:37 AM   #8199
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I'll take action up to 50 million of exposure from my side.

Lol, on a more serious and practical note if someone did seriously want to bet me on say me having a losing year next year I would be willing to negotiate odds.

When I posted that I wasn't really considering the practicality of having money escrowed for years and considering the fact that if I won the main event I would quit poker.
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Old 11-30-2014, 09:30 AM   #8200
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I know at least 1 strong big winner Vegas 2/5 NL pro who has had a 5-figure downswing at strictly 2/5 NL in the recent past.

In LA, I know several strong pros who have had several 2000bb+ downswings in their careers (I hate measuring downswings in terms of buyins...big blinds is much more accurate).

With that said, the vast majority of people are just lighting money on fire when they have a downswing (and they whine abiut the bad luck knstead of owning up to the bad play). So it is way too hard to know if you are running horribly or just playing horribly unless you are a very self-aware poker player who is brutally honest with yourself.
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