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Old 10-27-2014, 12:58 AM   #8076
Parallelflux
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Definitely 1/3.
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Old 10-30-2014, 12:57 AM   #8077
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-p...e-real-winners

Can anyone put this into perspective for me? Why is there such a large discrepancy between this guy's 1/2 200+ max expected win rate and a lot of other things I've heard?

Brick and mortar question of course.
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:05 AM   #8078
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*** Official Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ***

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chop4Lop View Post
http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-p...e-real-winners



Can anyone put this into perspective for me? Why is there such a large discrepancy between this guy's 1/2 200+ max expected win rate and a lot of other things I've heard?



Brick and mortar question of course.

He quoted WRs for the limit games in his stakes-categories. 1~2 Big Bets/ hour is commonly accepted as a good limit WR much like 10 bb / hr in NL.

FWIW - his assessment about % winning player distributions is pretty spot on IMO
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:11 AM   #8079
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chop4Lop View Post
http://www.pokerlistings.com/poker-p...e-real-winners

Can anyone put this into perspective for me? Why is there such a large discrepancy between this guy's 1/2 200+ max expected win rate and a lot of other things I've heard?

Brick and mortar question of course.
It honestly could be that his experience in 1/2 is limited because a 1-2BB/hr winner in that stake is doing something very wrong. I know of a lot of posters on this form with a ~10bb/hr over a substantial sample size. I personally have only put in about 600 hours at 1/2 and 1/3 but am a ~8.5bb/hr player with still a decent amount of leaks.

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Old 10-30-2014, 01:21 AM   #8080
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
He quoted WRs for the limit games in his stakes-categories. 1~2 Big Bets/ hour is commonly accepted as a good limit WR much like 10 bb / hr in NL.

FWIW - his assessment about % winning player distributions is pretty spot on IMO
You're right. Long day. I was very, very confused
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Old 10-30-2014, 01:28 AM   #8081
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Originally Posted by captainondeck View Post
It honestly could be that his experience in 1/2 is limited because a 1-2BB/hr winner in that stake is doing something very wrong. I know of a lot of posters on this form with a ~10bb/hr over a substantial sample size. I personally have only put in about 600 hours at 1/2 and 1/3 but am a ~8.5bb/hr player with still a decent amount of leaks.

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Ugh, me too. Leaks... Keep that presence of mind as sharp as you can. I find I leak much more after going on auto pilot having played for 6+ hours in a day. Played for much more today. -_- totally making excuses for understanding it should have pertained to limit without doubt
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Old 11-03-2014, 12:14 PM   #8082
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just got out of my worst ever downswing at 1/3 NL live.

Long story short, I reached the 1,774 hour mark of 1/3 NL having never officially booked a downswing >= $1,500 (500 bbs), cruising along at a $30.35/hr (10.12bb/hr) clip cuz poker is easy.

And then in 79 hour period I went on a $2,866 (955bb) downswing. Keep in mind that this was 2x worse than my previous two "bad" downswings. Pretty sure I didn't think that was possible in my game; who knew?

Just finally dug out of it, so over the past 163 hours I've shipped a grand total of $194 in profit ($1.19/hr = 0.40bb/hr). This period included my longest session losing streak of 6 straight sessions (if you don't count a 5 minute winning session within), a personal best by 2 sessions. It is also my longest ~flatline, surpassing my previous best of 139 hours.

My overall winrate dropped to $27.89/hr (9.30bb/hr), so the winrate took a 0.82bb/hr hit during this period.

And most disconcerting for you rec players like myself (I only get out once a week): this downswing/flatline lasted just shy of 4 months.

GalsorealizesitispossibleI'monlyaquarterofthewayth ruthisdownswingG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 11-03-2014 at 12:28 PM.
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Old 11-03-2014, 12:20 PM   #8083
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Yeah, im in a 2 month 500bb 55 hr. downswing myself right now. Every time i book some wins and think im on my way out of it, smacked back down. I only had a 10o hrs tracked before the swing. My wr went from 15bb/hr to 7.5bb/hr. Ouch.
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Old 11-03-2014, 12:20 PM   #8084
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Excellent job hanging tough gg and staying focused. It is cliche as hell but most have zero clue how bad it can get...sorry you had to experience it - and hopefully you can return to your smooth sailing ways and not have to experience that again for a very long time
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Old 11-03-2014, 12:27 PM   #8085
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Originally Posted by squid face View Post
but most have zero clue how bad it can get
Honestly, before this downswing if you hadda told me you were stuck 955bb in 79 hours, I would have told you your game needs a LOT of work. Really opens up your eyes as to how little needs to happen in order to run bad for a spell.

Of course, there is a lot of bad play on my part mixed in there. Funny thing is, I don't think I was playing any worse than I always do. Seriously, I don't play very well. But the game I play in is just sooooooooooo good that I can play horrible and still get good results.

Gthescariestthing:thisisprobablyjustscratchingthes urfaceofwhatispossibleG
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Old 11-03-2014, 01:18 PM   #8086
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
Yeah, im in a 2 month 500bb 55 hr. downswing myself right now. Every time i book some wins and think im on my way out of it, smacked back down. I only had a 10o hrs tracked before the swing. My wr went from 15bb/hr to 7.5bb/hr. Ouch.
500 bb is like a bad session for me!
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Old 11-03-2014, 01:26 PM   #8087
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I play 2 to 3 hour session so 500bb would be pretty brutal, but I think most of it was lost in about 20-30 hours which isnt far off from my 3-6 sessions 10 years ago.
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Old 11-03-2014, 05:11 PM   #8088
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I think another important takeaway from GG's downswing is his winrate only took a 10% hit during a very brutal downswing. So as much as these swings suck, with good bankroll management the swings can be weathered fairly comfortably.
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Old 11-03-2014, 05:19 PM   #8089
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10% hit still seems like a lot. Plus it has a devastating affect on yearly totals for us rec players. Even though I obviously ran like the sun last year, this year my winrate is exactly 1/2 of last years.

Gcliffs:downswingssuck;avoidthem,imoG
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Old 11-20-2014, 05:26 PM   #8090
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Back in the swing of things after a break for a while. Beeeeen running prettty good these last couple of months.
95% 1/2 5% 1/3.
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Old 11-20-2014, 05:43 PM   #8091
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Wow, jelly of your stats Ponyboy.

GniceG
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Old 11-20-2014, 05:48 PM   #8092
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Good work pony.
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Old 11-20-2014, 05:50 PM   #8093
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^Crushing.


I thought my $28/hr over 230 hours was good.
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Old 11-20-2014, 06:02 PM   #8094
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I've been running real good recently as well. YTD for 2014




here's my not very often updated PGC if anyone is intereated. 100% 1/2 NL from a "serious" rec player: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...llsnl-1410059/

Last edited by Dubey; 11-20-2014 at 06:07 PM.
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Old 11-20-2014, 06:16 PM   #8095
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I've been running real good recently as well. YTD for 2014




here's my not very often updated PGC if anyone is intereated. 100% 1/2 NL from a "serious" rec player: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...llsnl-1410059/

10 in tips over 200 hr?


.....the shame.....
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Old 11-20-2014, 06:28 PM   #8096
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10 in tips over 200 hr?


.....the shame.....
haha, I don't track tips. I used to be a dealer so if anything I tip too much. I think that $10 was for a meal I bought out of my stack and decided to track 1 time.
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Old 11-20-2014, 06:45 PM   #8097
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haha, I don't track tips. I used to be a dealer so if anything I tip too much. I think that $10 was for a meal I bought out of my stack and decided to track 1 time.
Same. I'd say I push the toke button maybe 1/2 the time I tip.
The 1/3 game I play in is pretty sick. Always a high hand promo going so people play like ******s. Haven't won less than 1k any time I play that game hah.
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Old 11-20-2014, 10:30 PM   #8098
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Appreciate some advice on grinding 2-100 spread limit live HE

I just moved to a state where they do not have NL, but have a max bet of 100 so the closest game to nl it seems is 1-2-100max. Come mid January I will have $2-$3k to use as a bankroll. I am currently taking online classes full time and work part time whenever I choose to so I am not tied down by a schedule. I have downpaid an entire year for rent so I do not have to factor that in, I am fine with buying a few loafs of bread, some mayo, tuna and whatever to live on sandwiches and whatever else is cheap while I grind instead of eating in the resuraunts. I live about 80 miles from the Casino, so gas would be the biggest expense. However, two of the casinos have really great comp deals. One has sun-thurs free hotel room with 6 hours of play that day and another has a rakeback deal of $150 for 30 hours of play/week plus $5 each hour after that initial 30. The rake is steep at $5/$2 and opens of 10-20x seem to be standard. So my thinking on this is to play a very solid tight game and valuebet the **** out TPTK and pot control scary boards. Thus reducing rake as much as possible. Set mining and marginal hands don't seem profitable with high rake and crazy high opens. This would be my first time grinding live, but have had success every time ive played in Durant, OK at Choctaw playing 1/2nl when I visit my uncle, paying for my whole trip each time. Obviously the free hotel is a sick comp and would save me $50-$100 in gas as my car gets about 400-450 miles per 12 gallon tank so at $3 gal=$36 and id get about 2.5-3 round trips each tank. Plus the 2+ Hours travel time=lost profit. So I am not sure which is more valuable. The Rakeback deal or the free hotel room deal. Free hotel I could go 3-4 days a week and grind like a madman 60 hours or so, Or take the Rakeback deal and grind 3-4 10+ hr days for $200+/wk in rakeback- $50 or so/wk in gas and $30/$50 in food. I feel like I would play more hands with the hotel, but have more guaranteed profits from the rakeback. What are yalls opinions? What would yall do? 4-5bb/hr attainable?

Cliff notes:

$2-3k bankroll
Starting game 1/2-100max spread holdem
Comps to chose from or possibly manipulate and combine, 6+hrs=free hotel sun-thurs or $150 rakeback after 30+hrs played and $5 each hour after/week.
I live 80 miles from casino and car gets 400-450 mi/tank
rent is paid for next year so not part of expenses
Taking 20 credit hrs online classes and work 20hrs or so/wk on my own schedule.

Thoughts on situation? grind till I can play 10/20 limit? or stick with 2-100?
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Old 11-20-2014, 10:56 PM   #8099
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Re: Appreciate some advice on grinding 2-100 spread limit live HE

How many hours of 1/2 have you logged at what winrate?


And this is a strategy forum, you could possibly take this to PG&C or maybe Brick & Mortar, it's probably better for those.
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Old 11-20-2014, 11:07 PM   #8100
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Re: Appreciate some advice on grinding 2-100 spread limit live HE

FWIW, this exact post was written at about the same time on a different poker forum by "AlaskanShark."

I haven't read more than two words of the post, but that about raises an orange flag for me right there.
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