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Old 09-04-2014, 12:14 PM   #7876
iraisetoomuch
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by pharaohofFUNK View Post
i've been 100% breakeven since i stopped playing.
Better than 80%+ of the player pool...
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Old 09-04-2014, 12:17 PM   #7877
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Looks to me like brain fatigue sets in after 40 hours of stimulus (work + pokers) in a week...
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Old 09-04-2014, 01:24 PM   #7878
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Looks to me like brain fatigue sets in after 40 hours of stimulus (work + pokers) in a week...

I'll just say I'm an IT employee and work from home a decent amt so it's pretty low stress most of the time but yeah sleep/rest is a very good answer. I also feel like I lose the "beat" when I'm not playing consecutive days if that makes sense, even though I read stuff on here and stove stuff during off days.
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Old 09-04-2014, 03:22 PM   #7879
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I thought of recording my sessions along with some variables once to see the ideal times I should play (time of day, hours since I woke up, day of the week, tables I was playing at once, stakes, etc). This was back in the online heyday circa 2008/9. And I stopped recording all of that after about 2 days because even if I had kept doing it, even now, 6 years later, I still wouldn't have a big enough sample size to say any results are significant.
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Old 09-04-2014, 04:45 PM   #7880
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Yea, your sample sizes for day-of-the-week results are always going to be on the "lol-small" size ... but I'm not convinced that there isn't still value there.

Depending on where you're playing your local rooms may have significantly different player compositions from day to day. Generally I'd lump Sun-Thurs together and Fri/Sat separately (basically days when people work in the morning vs not), but depending on your player pool you might be able to make finer distinctions.

I know a couple of specific whales that can't play during the week because of work. And I know some rooms that get crazy busy on Wednesdays when the low buy in tournament runs.

It's nearly impossible to just look at a winrate number and say "I shouldn't play on Monday". But I feel like it can at least prompt us to dig deeper into what else might be influencing our game.
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Old 09-04-2014, 11:24 PM   #7881
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I have a theory about Thrsday nights, no idea if it's valid.

A lot of guys with families can't play poker all night on a Friday or Saturday because of the children or his wife wanting to do stuff. But Thursday night, the children are sleeping for school and it's these guys one time a week that they can play all night and then sleepwalk through work on Friday. And these guys aren't rich but these same facets of their lives don't allow for a whole lot of study time.
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Old 09-13-2014, 01:34 PM   #7882
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think far too many people put way too much emphasis on their win-rate stats and especially on how their specific win-rate compares to other players who play similar stakes.

For aspiring professional poker players, you would be much better off with a weekly volume target and a monthly overall profit target. Why is that?

Well, volume (hours played) is the one of the most important factors that determine whether an aspiring pro will succeed or fail. So volume should be a serious Short-term target. Volume is also something that is almost 100% in the control of any poker player, so there is almost no excuse for poor volume.

Now, the end for all professional poker players is profit. Unfortunately, profit in the short run is highly dependent on variance. Therefore, professional poker players should focus on the long-run profits and try to ignore the "noise" of short-run upswings and downswings.

How does win-rate figure into all of this? It barely figures into the picture at all. So, all the questions about how whether $50/hour is sustainable at 2/5 NL or whether the top 1% of pros can make $75/hour at deep-stacked $5 big blind games...are all pretty much irrelevant navel-gazing.
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Old 09-13-2014, 01:49 PM   #7883
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Managers should worry about results, workers should worry about the process. Poker playing is a profession in the sense that you manage yourself but you should definitely be focused on putting in the time/work and the results will happen eventually
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Old 09-13-2014, 02:34 PM   #7884
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
I think far too many people put way too much emphasis on their win-rate stats and especially on how their specific win-rate compares to other players who play similar stakes.

For aspiring professional poker players, you would be much better off with a weekly volume target and a monthly overall profit target. Why is that?

Well, volume (hours played) is the one of the most important factors that determine whether an aspiring pro will succeed or fail. So volume should be a serious Short-term target. Volume is also something that is almost 100% in the control of any poker player, so there is almost no excuse for poor volume.

Now, the end for all professional poker players is profit. Unfortunately, profit in the short run is highly dependent on variance. Therefore, professional poker players should focus on the long-run profits and try to ignore the "noise" of short-run upswings and downswings.

How does win-rate figure into all of this? It barely figures into the picture at all. So, all the questions about how whether $50/hour is sustainable at 2/5 NL or whether the top 1% of pros can make $75/hour at deep-stacked $5 big blind games...are all pretty much irrelevant navel-gazing.
Yup completely agree. This is almost like a pep talk i give to myself because once you focus on hours as your goal, it helps you become immune to card-deadness/run bad during a session.

My only two focuses are making right plays and putting in hours. It has been really, really great for my mental game as I have been pretty tilt-prone and unbothered by big losing sessions.
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Old 09-13-2014, 02:40 PM   #7885
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Thanks. Do you think $12,000 is ok to start playing 2/5? I have a business taking in about $2k a month after all expenses are paid to help my roll if needed. If I do move up to 2/5 should I always be buying in for the maximum $500 or should I be doing a little over the minimum ($200) at $350? I know the correct thing is to wait for 30 buy-ins, but does my job situation make this more flexible?
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Since you have a non-poker job, I think 12k is plenty to start 2/5. I'm not saying this from experience
Once upon a time I moved up, and I started taking shots at 2/5 with way less than 12k in my roll. The key is that you aren't using poker money for your life expenses. If you aren't, then yeah, absolutely, 12k is more than enough. I use 20 buy-ins as my benchmark, not 30. By that standard I would consider you to be fully rolled for 2/5 as long as you aren't taking money out of your roll for life expenses.

As for the buy-in, I'd say don't listen to the inevitable "only buy in full" responses. Buy in whatever you want as you get used to the higher stakes (just know how to adjust for playing a short stack though). Eventually you probably will want to work your way up to buying in $500 at a time though.
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Old 09-13-2014, 02:42 PM   #7886
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I built my 2/5 roll from $700. True story.
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Old 09-13-2014, 03:17 PM   #7887
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I built my 2/5 roll from $700. True story.
$400. Do I win something?
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Old 09-13-2014, 03:43 PM   #7888
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$400. Do I win something?
I built my entire life roll from a 40$ deposit on stars.
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Old 09-13-2014, 04:40 PM   #7889
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I built a house for $3.50
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Old 09-13-2014, 04:49 PM   #7890
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Some penny slots luck box out there has you all beat
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Old 09-13-2014, 05:12 PM   #7891
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Some penny slots luck box out there has you all beat
Free roll ftw.
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Old 09-13-2014, 05:20 PM   #7892
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i sold play chips on ebay then worked my way up.

Spoiler:
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Old 09-13-2014, 10:03 PM   #7893
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
I think far too many people put way too much emphasis on their win-rate stats and especially on how their specific win-rate compares to other players who play similar stakes.

For aspiring professional poker players, you would be much better off with a weekly volume target and a monthly overall profit target. Why is that?

Well, volume (hours played) is the one of the most important factors that determine whether an aspiring pro will succeed or fail. So volume should be a serious Short-term target. Volume is also something that is almost 100% in the control of any poker player, so there is almost no excuse for poor volume.

Now, the end for all professional poker players is profit. Unfortunately, profit in the short run is highly dependent on variance. Therefore, professional poker players should focus on the long-run profits and try to ignore the "noise" of short-run upswings and downswings.

How does win-rate figure into all of this? It barely figures into the picture at all. So, all the questions about how whether $50/hour is sustainable at 2/5 NL or whether the top 1% of pros can make $75/hour at deep-stacked $5 big blind games...are all pretty much irrelevant navel-gazing.
Seems like a pretty obvious concept but this was well said and worth reinforcing. Thanks for posting!
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Old 09-13-2014, 10:05 PM   #7894
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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
Yup

My only two focuses are making right plays and putting in hours. It has been really, really great for my mental game as I have been pretty tilt-prone and unbothered by big losing sessions.
I need to adopt this mindset. Thanks for posting
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Old 09-14-2014, 12:12 AM   #7895
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I need to adopt this mindset. Thanks for posting
Happy to help
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Old 09-14-2014, 02:28 AM   #7896
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Some penny slots luck box out there has you all beat
I got comped 20$ recently.

Runidup! >


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Old 09-14-2014, 02:33 AM   #7897
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
I got comped 20$ recently.

Runidup! >


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Smash the max bet button
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Old 09-14-2014, 02:38 AM   #7898
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Wadda ya think? Slow grind it up at .01?

Or take the leap of faith and do one spin on 1$?

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Old 09-14-2014, 04:06 AM   #7899
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What's everyones opinion on a $100-$300 capped 5-10NL game? How would you go about this?

I have a lot of experience short stacking, but never with anything less than 25BB buyin. I assume some people will be $1k+ at this sort of table. Would this game play like you would play late in a tourny?
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Old 09-14-2014, 04:25 AM   #7900
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What's everyones opinion on a $100-$300 capped 5-10NL game? How would you go about this?

I have a lot of experience short stacking, but never with anything less than 25BB buyin. I assume some people will be $1k+ at this sort of table. Would this game play like you would play late in a tourny?
Yeah I would pretty much just play it like a tourney. I guess you could maybe do some pre flop squeezing but that's about it.

IMHO that structure isn't worth it.


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