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Old 08-29-2014, 05:12 PM   #7851
FishInAPhoneBooth
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I believe Shania refers more so to the concept of range balancing though alot of what it says (about thinking in totality) goes with what I am saying.

I just came to the conclusion of "the flow of EV" after watching many videos with Raptor and Green Plastic both sometimes "waiting for better spots", notably in heads up play but still very applicable to 6max/FR poker, especially live poker.

There can be EV of a session. EV when villain is on tilt. EV when villain is stuck a buy in. EV when we are tilting. Etc.

An example:

You are 6 handed in a live 2/5 game. Villain has been spewing hard, you are on his direct left. He's in for $2K, currently $1k in front of him. You cover.

You know he has several more $K and that he will unload it all while stuck. He also keeps muttering under his breath "one more double up then I can go sleep"

He opens $25 UTG+1. You 3bet $80 with AsKs. He jams. While you are tanking he flips up his hand and shows you red JJ.

If we call we have a positive expected value of ~$5. Should we call?
This.
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:27 PM   #7852
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quick "next game up" bankroll question from me : Where I play, the highest NLHE games that go regularly every night are 2/5 games (100-500 BI) where most players buy in at a $100-300 clip. Games are nice and soft, typically little light raising & almost no light 3-betting going on there. Deep money situations are infrequent. It's a very "bread and butter" type of game where solid ABC play can kill it.

The "next game up" is a 5/5 NL (300-1K buyin) that gets going on weekends/holidays. In general, this game brings out the better 2/5 NL players (and even some great players that wouldn't bother coming for lower games). It also plays shorthanded much more than the other game. There's much more aggression & 3-betting.

What kind of roll would I want to play this 2/5 game? Where would I want to be at to shot take this 5/5 game, or should I even bother with it when I can just play a suddenly even more talent sapped 2/5 if it is running?
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:36 PM   #7853
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

10k for 2/5 maybe 15k for full ring 5/5 and 20k+ for short handed vs other good aggressive players

Winrate prob roughly the same unless you're one of the top players
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Old 08-29-2014, 08:51 PM   #7854
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishInAPhoneBooth View Post
I don't like using the word variance when discussing essentially up/down swings and how likely we are to encounter them.
However playing nit to TAG has had more "variance" than playing sLAG to LAG over the past years of playing. That is, if you only consider a swing greater than 2 (or maybe 3) buyin either way. The reason is as a tight player when a big pair gets cracked, it is half a session before you pick up another pair and MAYBE double up to get even. As a LAG you get many more playable hands and +ev spots to win $. I think it was in a Harrington book where he describes the extra hands LAG plays as a hedge that reduces swings.
LAGs also play smaller pots.

However, when the dynamics are such that you don't have much fold equity (such as when you're really stuck), you're primarily playing marginal hands to speculate or get thin value, which isn't particularly low-variance.
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Old 08-29-2014, 10:19 PM   #7855
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sounds good to me, Duke. Will probably stay away until I'm more built up and my game is stronger.
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Old 08-30-2014, 01:02 PM   #7856
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
how are you guys winning at such a big clip at 1/2 and 1/3 and not moving up?
not everyone lives near a room that offers 2/5+ regularly

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
I challenge anyone to post an unfabricated graph/stats of 30+/hr over 1k hours at 1/2 where the rake is somewhere around 5+1.

Skepticism aside, I'm legitimately interested.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using 2+2 Forums
as a rec player I have ~850 hrs at 1/2 with a 4+1 and I am at $29.50 an hr.
I am also a decent tipper
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Old 09-01-2014, 11:23 PM   #7857
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hi guys, I have been beating 2/4 in New Zealand for 30+/hr, where the rake was 10% capped at $15. This is pretty high however we don't tip here.

recently I've moved to the Gold Coast where the rake is criminal at Jupiter's casino. 10% capped at $20 for 2/3. this is close to 7 big blinds!!

do you guys think this is beatable? apparently the game is very fishy as the increased rake has made most regs go play at Brisbane instead.
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Old 09-02-2014, 07:36 AM   #7858
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think you could give it a short-term shot and see if it's really that fishy (aka run good from the start), but that rake seems too high for a home casino.

Assume a standard heads up pot where you open for 15, and get bets of 20 and 50 in, you're gonna pay the $2 small blind and your called open in rake ($17). Just feels like too much.
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Old 09-02-2014, 09:30 AM   #7859
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by FishInAPhoneBooth View Post
I don't like using the word variance when discussing essentially up/down swings and how likely we are to encounter them.
However playing nit to TAG has had more "variance" than playing sLAG to LAG over the past years of playing. That is, if you only consider a swing greater than 2 (or maybe 3) buyin either way. The reason is as a tight player when a big pair gets cracked, it is half a session before you pick up another pair and MAYBE double up to get even. As a LAG you get many more playable hands and +ev spots to win $. I think it was in a Harrington book where he describes the extra hands LAG plays as a hedge that reduces swings.
I've always thought the 'LAG vs TAG, who has greater variance?' discussion was this simple. LAG's play more hands per hour so they have a greater hourly variance. Just like anybody's 10 hour variance is greater than their hourly variance. But we want to play more hands in a shorter time frame so that we can reach the long term sooner and not have to worry so much about swings
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Old 09-02-2014, 10:24 AM   #7860
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Run2Vegas View Post
hi guys, I have been beating 2/4 in New Zealand for 30+/hr, where the rake was 10% capped at $15. This is pretty high however we don't tip here.

recently I've moved to the Gold Coast where the rake is criminal at Jupiter's casino. 10% capped at $20 for 2/3. this is close to 7 big blinds!!

do you guys think this is beatable? apparently the game is very fishy as the increased rake has made most regs go play at Brisbane instead.
What is your sample of 2/4 @ $40+ph ?? Are there not bigger games at GC? If not find the home games because that is rake rape.
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Old 09-02-2014, 01:38 PM   #7861
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi guys,

I play 1/2 $300 cap NL at Maryland Live in my spare time, about 3-5 times a week. I have been tracking my results to the minute from January 1st of this year.

My stats are:

Total Profit: $10,754 (109 sessions)
Wage/hour: $11.83
Total Pokertime: 909 hours
Rake: $5 max + $1 for bad beat (and I tip $1 every winning pot over $15)
Style: I play TAG. I have recently made the switch to bet/bet/bet line with all my value hands unless I have a serious excuse to slowplay. I probably am a little loose pre with calling with speculative hands where I shouldn't be, but I am definitely one of the tightest at my table in this regard at all times (not completing from the small blind with anything, folding KJ UTG, folding suited connectors unless I have 20 times the raise size in our effective stacks, etc)

My questions are:

--> At what point (how many hours/sessions) can I be comfortable with being a good enough sample size for my winrate? Is 909 hours too small with too much variance for my $11.83/hr winrate to be a solid number?

--> How many hours should I be at to think I have a solid idea of what my winrate per hour is? If 909 is enough, should I think I have a major leak in my game because I'm not making 10bbs/hr? Sidenote: I was making around $15-18/hr before I had a massive downswing in May.

--> If/when I move up to $2/5 and assume I have the same edge over the field at 1/2 that I do at 2/5 (which I think I will), what could I extrapolate/guess my winrate would be there if I'm currently making $11.83/hr at 1/2? I rarely bluff or squeeze, which I know if I did more often in the right spots I'd increase my winrate, but should I investigate my current game more before implementing these things into my sessions?

Last edited by Havax; 09-02-2014 at 01:51 PM.
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Old 09-02-2014, 03:51 PM   #7862
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

~1000 hours is good to know you won't drop below the $11.83. More is definitely possible. The playing should be the easy part. After you regularly are putting in enough time off the table, most people's hands should be face up to you at 1/2. The rake for these stakes makes it difficult to do more than 10BB/hour though.

2/5 is better for the smaller rake (relatively), the higher $/hour, and there are smaller stakes to drop to if you aren't feeling confident. You need to be way more rolled though. Not just the dollar amount, the buy-ins. I never even used a 1/2 roll, I went with $800 ($300 cap) and never lost it all in one night.
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Old 09-03-2014, 02:35 PM   #7863
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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
~1000 hours is good to know you won't drop below the $11.83. More is definitely possible. The playing should be the easy part. After you regularly are putting in enough time off the table, most people's hands should be face up to you at 1/2. The rake for these stakes makes it difficult to do more than 10BB/hour though.

2/5 is better for the smaller rake (relatively), the higher $/hour, and there are smaller stakes to drop to if you aren't feeling confident. You need to be way more rolled though. Not just the dollar amount, the buy-ins. I never even used a 1/2 roll, I went with $800 ($300 cap) and never lost it all in one night.
Thanks. Do you think $12,000 is ok to start playing 2/5? I have a business taking in about $2k a month after all expenses are paid to help my roll if needed. If I do move up to 2/5 should I always be buying in for the maximum $500 or should I be doing a little over the minimum ($200) at $350? I know the correct thing is to wait for 30 buy-ins, but does my job situation make this more flexible?
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Old 09-03-2014, 03:17 PM   #7864
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since you have a non-poker job, I think 12k is plenty to start 2/5. I'm not saying this from experience, but prevailing wisdom would say this I think. Just keep in mind you don't have to force yourself to be a "2/5 player." You are a poker player. You can always move to lower stakes if the game is filled with grinders, if the lower stake game is very juicy, if you are playing your B game, or any other reason really.
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Old 09-03-2014, 04:26 PM   #7865
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Also buy in full. Personally I would buy in for the max allowed at the table (unless it's uncapped, in which case buy in enough to cover the fish). Deeper stacks cushion variance.
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Old 09-03-2014, 06:24 PM   #7866
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Run2Vegas View Post
hi guys, I have been beating 2/4 in New Zealand for 30+/hr, where the rake was 10% capped at $15. This is pretty high however we don't tip here.

recently I've moved to the Gold Coast where the rake is criminal at Jupiter's casino. 10% capped at $20 for 2/3. this is close to 7 big blinds!!

do you guys think this is beatable? apparently the game is very fishy as the increased rake has made most regs go play at Brisbane instead.
Hey mate, I've played there a bit. It was the softest 2:5 game I've played. That rake is crazy though.

Other problem there is how few tables run and the wait lists can be huge.

From what I understand you should split time between GC and Bris depending on the day
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Old 09-03-2014, 06:33 PM   #7867
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Originally Posted by Havax View Post
Thanks. Do you think $12,000 is ok to start playing 2/5? I have a business taking in about $2k a month after all expenses are paid to help my roll if needed. If I do move up to 2/5 should I always be buying in for the maximum $500 or should I be doing a little over the minimum ($200) at $350? I know the correct thing is to wait for 30 buy-ins, but does my job situation make this more flexible?
I'd always play the most profitable game you're comfortable playing. I've seen more money on 1/3 tables than 2/5 tables in the same room. Some guys just can't play under 2/5 for ego but there's more $ to make at the 1/3. That doesn't mean a 5/T game with guys you've seen play poorly at 2/5 is a good idea. The potential of losing $1K+ in 1 hand will probably take you off you're A-game.
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Old 09-03-2014, 08:39 PM   #7868
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My first 100 hours of tracked 1/2 play are in the books. I started playing semi-seriously again in April. I basically took June/July off due to some work travel and home projects, but now I'm back baby.

Hours: 101.75
Sessions: 46
Winnings: $3051.00
Hourly: $29.99/hr.
Winning Sessions: 34
Losing Sessions: 12
Biggest Win: $404
Biggest Loss: -$303

It feels good. I definitely started on a massive heater which helped my wife get comfortable with the idea of me playing 6-10 hours per week. Since then my winrate has settled around $30/hr. and I hope it can stay there. I feel like I play in some pretty soft games. Almost all of this volume is on work nights (Sun-Thurs.) I feel like these games are just as profitable if not more so than the weekends. People still drink, and even though I'm 30 and sometimes the youngest at the table by 15 years, they aren't just a bunch of tight old men. Lots of straddling, limping, calling down light, playing any Ax, etc. The few times I've ventured out on the weekends each table is sprinkled with a couple 20 something TAG grinders, who aside from rare occasions, I never seen during the week.

Hard to say how I've ran overall in that 100 hours, but I can't say it's been bad. In this whole time I have never been felted. Any time I put my stack in against a bigger stack I won. I probably just jinxed it by writing it down. I'm debating starting a PG&C thread. I want to but I'm not sure if I'll be able to update it properly. Anyways, I know 100 hours is a lol small sample size, and it took me 5 months to get there, so I could be in for some losing years, but being able to say I'm up $3k feels pretty good.

I feel like my game has evolved a lot from grinding a small winrate in online, to starting off too loose in full ring live 1/2, to now constantly adjusting trying to develop a plan to target every weakness of every player at the table.

For what it's worth rake is $5+$1.
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Old 09-03-2014, 11:26 PM   #7869
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
My first 100 hours of tracked 1/2 play are in the books. I started playing semi-seriously again in April. I basically took June/July off due to some work travel and home projects, but now I'm back baby.

Hours: 101.75
Sessions: 46
Winnings: $3051.00
Hourly: $29.99/hr.
Winning Sessions: 34
Losing Sessions: 12
Biggest Win: $404
Biggest Loss: -$303

It feels good. I definitely started on a massive heater which helped my wife get comfortable with the idea of me playing 6-10 hours per week. Since then my winrate has settled around $30/hr. and I hope it can stay there. I feel like I play in some pretty soft games. Almost all of this volume is on work nights (Sun-Thurs.) I feel like these games are just as profitable if not more so than the weekends. People still drink, and even though I'm 30 and sometimes the youngest at the table by 15 years, they aren't just a bunch of tight old men. Lots of straddling, limping, calling down light, playing any Ax, etc. The few times I've ventured out on the weekends each table is sprinkled with a couple 20 something TAG grinders, who aside from rare occasions, I never seen during the week.

Hard to say how I've ran overall in that 100 hours, but I can't say it's been bad. In this whole time I have never been felted. Any time I put my stack in against a bigger stack I won. I probably just jinxed it by writing it down. I'm debating starting a PG&C thread. I want to but I'm not sure if I'll be able to update it properly. Anyways, I know 100 hours is a lol small sample size, and it took me 5 months to get there, so I could be in for some losing years, but being able to say I'm up $3k feels pretty good.

I feel like my game has evolved a lot from grinding a small winrate in online, to starting off too loose in full ring live 1/2, to now constantly adjusting trying to develop a plan to target every weakness of every player at the table.

For what it's worth rake is $5+$1.
Congrats, well done. I started hot when I started tracking my results at the start of this year too. Then I hit an ugly sick downswing in May which dipped my hourly rate under $15/hr and dinked my confidence. Just be prepared for it, it'll happen but you just need to grind through it.

You mentioned winning all your all-ins. I vividly remember one session where I was literally playing against the worst players on earth. They were calling my $100 3bets when I had QQ+, and stacked me 3 times for $300 in the span of TWO rotations. Q9 > KK on a Q74 board all-in on the flop, J6o > AA on a J57 flop all in on the flop, and then 9Ts > QQ all-in on a AQ4 flop and he hit his flush. It was one of the most frustrating things ever and I felt powerless.
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Old 09-03-2014, 11:29 PM   #7870
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss View Post
My first 100 hours of tracked 1/2 play are in the books. I started playing semi-seriously again in April. I basically took June/July off due to some work travel and home projects, but now I'm back baby.

Hours: 101.75
Sessions: 46
Winnings: $3051.00
Hourly: $29.99/hr.
Winning Sessions: 34
Losing Sessions: 12
Biggest Win: $404
Biggest Loss: -$303
That's really consistent with no wins bigger than $404. The last time I was at $30/hour at 1/2, I had had 3 $1K+ days. Hats off.
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Old 09-03-2014, 11:40 PM   #7871
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
That's really consistent with no wins bigger than $404. The last time I was at $30/hour at 1/2, I had had 3 $1K+ days. Hats off.
My average session length is only 2 hours so thats probably a big factor. If I re-tally it as 8 hour sessions im sure theres a lot more swinginess in there.
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Old 09-03-2014, 11:49 PM   #7872
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Originally Posted by Havax View Post
Congrats, well done. I started hot when I started tracking my results at the start of this year too. Then I hit an ugly sick downswing in May which dipped my hourly rate under $15/hr and dinked my confidence. Just be prepared for it, it'll happen but you just need to grind through it.
I definitely remember having 5-10 bi downswings online so I wont be too shocked. The only reason I dont want to say ive run good is the few times ive been at thise dream tables with multiple whales ive barely been able to tread water. Im probably down overall at great tables.
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Old 09-04-2014, 08:19 AM   #7873
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I think I've identified a leak, any advice?

I have ft m-f job, so I usually play from 5pm to 9-11 on weekdays. I very rarely play on Wednesdays due to a weekly commitment. So that means Thursday, Friday and Saturday are the days I'm most likely coming back to the game after a 48+ hour break. And if I'm playing Monday, I probably played all weekend too. Same thing with Tuesday.

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Old 09-04-2014, 11:33 AM   #7874
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Koss - nice start, congrats!

Homer - unless you've put in some *serious* hours on each of your days, my guess is that your day stat differences is nothing more than statistical noise.
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Old 09-04-2014, 11:44 AM   #7875
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i've been 100% breakeven since i stopped playing.
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