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Old 08-25-2014, 04:21 AM   #7826
Aleksei
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by dunderstron! View Post
...and I thought he was talking about lack of patience. Even fish can fold J2o when they are two tabling and getting many more hands online, and double that if they have a quick fold button.
The dynamics are way different in quick-fold games. Fish, I think, tend to fold too much rather than too little in quick-fold games, so that you can bluff scary runouts with abandon. They'll just fold and wait for a better spot.
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Old 08-25-2014, 02:35 PM   #7827
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
Just had my EIGHTH straight losing night.

Wondering how the hell that is possible?
I know how you feel. I went 1800 hours at 1/3 NL without ever booking more than 4 losses in a row (which I did twice). Just snapped my record 6 session losing streak with very small back-to-back wins (56bb and 22bb), although still stuck ~800bbs over this streak (my worst ever by +300bbs).

Can't imagine the stress you mush be going thru now that it's your main bread winner.

Ggoodluck,hopeitturnsaroundsoonG
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Old 08-25-2014, 09:43 PM   #7828
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
Just had my EIGHTH straight losing night.

Wondering how the hell that is possible?
I've lost 9 in a row at 2/5 before.
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Old 08-26-2014, 04:48 AM   #7829
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by acescracked84 View Post
I've lost 9 in a row at 2/5 before.
I mean, I know I have played badly at times in sessions but I also know I haven't flopped a set with any low pocket pair I've had and my big pocket pairs are getting cracked. Also AK is whiffing like a MFer every time I get it.

Monday night was 9 in a row in the losing column.

The worst part is, like I never even get up $1 at any point in the session.

Screw it. Taking at least two days off to do some fantasy football drafts and going to play anywhere but Harrah's Chester on Thursday.
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Old 08-26-2014, 07:30 AM   #7830
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

stay patient Chip and just make sure you're playing as close to perfectly as you know how to play

the cards will turn, you just need to make sure you squeeze every drop of value out of every hand, win the max, lose the minimum and work twice as hard

it may be my Protestant work ethic coming out, but I don't think taking two days off is the answer. I would put in short sharp sessions where you focus on every decision in every hand.
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:03 PM   #7831
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
the cards will turn, you just need to make sure you squeeze every drop of value out of every hand, win the max, lose the minimum and work twice as hard
It's not actually possible to squeeze every drop of value (winning max) while losing the minimum.

You have to kind of just face the fact that during downswings, there is more value in losing less than winning more. If a spot is +EV but thin, I would skip it.
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:07 PM   #7832
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you're advocating skipping thinv +EV spots when you are losing because it's tough for some people to deal with the downswings and thing spots tend to be high variance spots that can lead to big short term down swings then I agree.
If you are advocating it because some thin spots require bankrolls that are too big for the average player and we just can't sustain enough trials of them esp when we are on a losing streak and our BR is low because of it, then ok.

But, if you are advocating skipping thin +EV spots just because you are on a down swing and for no other reason then that's insane. If it's +EV it's +EV.
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:21 PM   #7833
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Why would I advocate skipping +EV spot besides reasons that would keep us from collecting future +EV spots?

And what would those be if such reasons exist, Cpt. Obvious?
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:25 PM   #7834
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shell Gas View Post
If a spot is +EV but thin, I would skip it.
Which is exactly what people advocate when suggesting short stacking on a short bankroll. It's not the short stack that reduces variance, it's passing on the thin spots that does.
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:33 PM   #7835
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Why would I advocate skipping +EV spot besides reasons that would keep us from collecting future +EV spots?

And what would those be if such reasons exist, Cpt. Obvious?
You're just as much of an ass in this form as you were in your old form.
At least some things never change.
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:34 PM   #7836
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Which is exactly what people advocate when suggesting short stacking on a short bankroll. It's not the short stack that reduces variance, it's passing on the thin spots that does.
It doesn't reduce long term variance, and in fact, it increases it, because by definition, +EV spots add to your win rate.

Here's a tool that calculates variance in poker: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

However, skipping thin spots will likely help our human emotions, and in turn, keep us in the game.

Bottom line, if you are not in the game, you can't win (assuming you're a winning player).
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:36 PM   #7837
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
You're just as much of an ass in this form as you were in your old form.
At least some things never change.
What are you talking about?

Do you have other obvious things to add to a discussion?
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Old 08-26-2014, 12:56 PM   #7838
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shell Gas View Post
It doesn't reduce long term variance, and in fact, it increases it, because by definition, +EV spots add to your win rate.

Here's a tool that calculates variance in poker: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

However, skipping thin spots will likely help our human emotions, and in turn, keep us in the game.

Bottom line, if you are not in the game, you can't win (assuming you're a winning player).
You can't tell me that folding a hand and losing $2 every single time is higher variance than shoving a stack in on a 51% edge for a +$2 EV spot. That's just crazy talk.

You keep harping on this win-rate ****, when the standard deviation term is just as important and much easier to manipulate significantly.
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Old 08-26-2014, 01:03 PM   #7839
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Calm down...

Forget the petty semantics, my points are there.

Clearly if you are super emotional about what I said, you could benefit in avoiding "high variance" spots that would stir up emotion.
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Old 08-26-2014, 01:34 PM   #7840
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Damn I love when people equate a few ****'s to "super emotional".

When you look at a single spot, you can take lower EV lines with significantly less variance than the best EV lines. That's pretty well known and fairly obvious. String a bunch of these together and you can have a low variance, lowish win rate strategy. Is it in any way optimal? No. But it's a good way for a new player on a short roll to build up some cash and some confidence. That's why people recommend it to them.
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Old 08-27-2014, 07:35 AM   #7841
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shell Gas View Post
It's not actually possible to squeeze every drop of value (winning max) while losing the minimum.

You have to kind of just face the fact that during downswings, there is more value in losing less than winning more. If a spot is +EV but thin, I would skip it.
I don't know. I'm not sure my logic will stand up to a water test theoretically, but in practice, if Chip can focus on squeezing as much value as he can out of every value hands while also never putting an extra dollar in when he suspects he's behind villain's range, then I think we both know his P&L will improve
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Old 08-27-2014, 12:50 PM   #7842
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
I don't know. I'm not sure my logic will stand up to a water test theoretically, but in practice, if Chip can focus on squeezing as much value as he can out of every value hands while also never putting an extra dollar in when he suspects he's behind villain's range, then I think we both know his P&L will improve
But what does it mean when you say "behind villain's range"?

In order to squeeze every dollar out of value hands, you cannot avoid any +EV spots, and +EV doesn't always mean ahead of villain's range.
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Old 08-27-2014, 06:04 PM   #7843
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
Hitting and running is smart when you are building a bankroll.

Double up and leave. The room will be there tomorrow, the next day.
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Old 08-27-2014, 06:28 PM   #7844
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Shell Gas View Post
But what does it mean when you say "behind villain's range"?

In order to squeeze every dollar out of value hands, you cannot avoid any +EV spots, and +EV doesn't always mean ahead of villain's range.
? Do you mean 'cannot avoid - ev spots'?
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Old 08-28-2014, 03:58 AM   #7845
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Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
? Do you mean 'cannot avoid - ev spots'?
Huh? To maximize winning, you cannot avoid +EV spots.

+EV doesn't always mean ahead of your opponent's range, because the spot can still be profitable even if you have less than 50% equity.
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Old 08-28-2014, 11:18 AM   #7846
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The big disagreement here lies between one side thinking EV refers to each hand and another that thinks EV refers to what I call a "flow"

I agree with both but have done a lot of work to steer my game towards the flow of EV

Raptor, who is one of the biggest spew monkeys of all time, passes on +EV spots often in his videos. +EV in reference to the hand, not the flow.
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Old 08-29-2014, 03:43 AM   #7847
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
The big disagreement here lies between one side thinking EV refers to each hand and another that thinks EV refers to what I call a "flow"

I agree with both but have done a lot of work to steer my game towards the flow of EV

Raptor, who is one of the biggest spew monkeys of all time, passes on +EV spots often in his videos. +EV in reference to the hand, not the flow.
Sounds like "Shania"


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Old 08-29-2014, 09:44 AM   #7848
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I believe Shania refers more so to the concept of range balancing though alot of what it says (about thinking in totality) goes with what I am saying.

I just came to the conclusion of "the flow of EV" after watching many videos with Raptor and Green Plastic both sometimes "waiting for better spots", notably in heads up play but still very applicable to 6max/FR poker, especially live poker.

There can be EV of a session. EV when villain is on tilt. EV when villain is stuck a buy in. EV when we are tilting. Etc.

An example:

You are 6 handed in a live 2/5 game. Villain has been spewing hard, you are on his direct left. He's in for $2K, currently $1k in front of him. You cover.

You know he has several more $K and that he will unload it all while stuck. He also keeps muttering under his breath "one more double up then I can go sleep"

He opens $25 UTG+1. You 3bet $80 with AsKs. He jams. While you are tanking he flips up his hand and shows you red JJ.

If we call we have a positive expected value of ~$5. Should we call?
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Old 08-29-2014, 09:49 AM   #7849
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ava, are you secretly Alan Schoonaker?

The writing style of your example is a match.

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Old 08-29-2014, 04:58 PM   #7850
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't like using the word variance when discussing essentially up/down swings and how likely we are to encounter them.
However playing nit to TAG has had more "variance" than playing sLAG to LAG over the past years of playing. That is, if you only consider a swing greater than 2 (or maybe 3) buyin either way. The reason is as a tight player when a big pair gets cracked, it is half a session before you pick up another pair and MAYBE double up to get even. As a LAG you get many more playable hands and +ev spots to win $. I think it was in a Harrington book where he describes the extra hands LAG plays as a hedge that reduces swings.

Last edited by FishInAPhoneBooth; 08-29-2014 at 05:10 PM.
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