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Old 08-18-2014, 07:29 PM   #7776
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have a lot of 50bb experience live and online it's not the win rate killer you would think.... People fail to adjust to your stack size which helps and you only really lose out if the first pot or two would have been a double up if you were full stacked other wise you either win a couple and are full stacked anyway or your BR variance is reduced

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Old 08-18-2014, 10:00 PM   #7777
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP View Post
I have a lot of 50bb experience live and online it's not the win rate killer you would think.... People fail to adjust to your stack size which helps and you only really lose out if the first pot or two would have been a double up if you were full stacked other wise you either win a couple and are full stacked anyway or your BR variance is reduced

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This is just poor advice and flawed thinking.

If I'm sitting with 300bb (nm what I bought in for, could be 50bb or in the game for 300bb already), and I get stacked, I can get back to that peak in a single hand, possibly the very next one, if my buyins are 150bb. If I buy in for 50bb, I have to double up twice to even get to 200bb.
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Old 08-19-2014, 12:10 AM   #7778
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP View Post
I have a lot of 50bb experience live and online it's not the win rate killer you would think.... People fail to adjust to your stack size which helps and you only really lose out if the first pot or two would have been a double up if you were full stacked other wise you either win a couple and are full stacked anyway or your BR variance is reduced

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No matter how you spin it, shorter stacks lead to higher variance.

If you don't believe it, post some scenarios and leave effective stacks blank, then start analyzing them using 50bb and 100bb effective stacks.

Tons of posters in the past think somehow tightening up to play only QQ+ can reduce variance, but what they fail to understand is that by playing only QQ+, you're forgoing a lot of +EV spots, thus translating to lower win rate.

And if you actually understand how poker variance is calculated, you would know that a key variable in calculating variance is WR.
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Old 08-19-2014, 03:50 AM   #7779
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Another thing you have to consider is that because of the massive open-raises you make live, 100bb is actually basically short already.

Think of it this way: online, you raise 3x, get one caller otb. Pot going into the flop is 7bb after drop, effective stacks are 97bb, so SPR is 14. Live, you raise to 7bb, get two callers. Pot going into the flop is 21bb, ESS is 93. SPR, then, would be a measly 4.
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Old 08-19-2014, 08:18 PM   #7780
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

30 hours is entirely irrelevant. Get to 1000 hours and you can START thinking about winrate. I'd say that would be about standard though. The better players probably more like 25-30.
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Old 08-19-2014, 08:53 PM   #7781
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

Sorry, I'm on my phone, so I can't move it myself, but please post this in the Winrates, Bankroll and Finances containment thread.

Edit: I'm back at my PC now. Thread re-opened and moved into the appropriate place.

Welcome to the forum, unranked. Please peruse this thread, but the general rule is that winning is a good winrate, but crushing is 10bb/hr+. I really don't think many 1/2 players are making $30/hr. Agreed that the sample size is very low.

Last edited by Garick; 08-19-2014 at 10:09 PM. Reason: merged threads
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Old 08-19-2014, 10:40 PM   #7782
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

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I agree entirely that I don't have any kind of sample to tell what my win rate is. But I'm just looking for some sort of benchmark to compare myself with.

25-30? That makes sense. Hard to imagine anybody doing much better than that. Thanks for taking the time to respond.

I'm not sure of the jump in quality of players to 2-5 NL (never played it). What would a $25/hr 1-2 NL player make at 2-5.
If you're looking for justification to play higher, you're not going to get any from a small sample size.

If not, what are you looking for in your post?
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Old 08-19-2014, 10:47 PM   #7783
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

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Hi guys, I haven't done a ton of live play in my life up to this point. Anywhere from 1-3 times per year for the past 11 years (since I turned 21). For whatever reason (My other hobbies got boring), I decided this summer to go more and dedicate myself a little bit to get better.

I really have no idea what a good win rate is. Am I running lucky, normal, or meh. It's a small sample size (5 trips, average 6 hours each) but maybe something can be derived from it. I had a hero call leak in some of the early sessions that I've worked on eliminating.

30-Jul, 5 Hours, +$140
5-Aug, 6 Hours, +$50
13-Aug, 7 Hours, -$43
18-Aug, 7.5 Hours, +$69
19-Aug, 5 Hours, +$167

30.5 Hours, +$383 ($12.56/hour)

I should include that this my net poker winnings. It's Cash Out - Buy Ins + All Tips (dealer & waitress).

Again, I don't have the foggiest clue if that's a decent rate or not, I'm guessing no because I feel like I could be playing a lot better. What should a nitty TAG 1/2 Live player expect?
I'm going to skip the whole small sample size bit and say that 30 hours is far too small to get an idea of win rate.

However 12/hr at 1/3 is a respectable rate that can be improved upon.

I think the absolute max the best 1/3 players can beat a 1/3 for is 25/hr depending on rake, buy in structure and player pool.


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Old 08-19-2014, 11:26 PM   #7784
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

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I think the absolute max the best 1/3 players can beat a 1/3 for is 25/hr depending on rake, buy in structure and player pool.
I've seen people beat 1/3 for $30 an hour playing just solid TAG, with a flat rake drop and short effective stacks. Mix in a few thin moves in +EV spots, exploiting scared money, etc. and I think a very very good 1/3 player can make up to $40 an hour. If it plays deep, that could easily go up to $50.

Aesah once theorized that 1/3 has the highest potential winrate (in terms of bb/hr) because it's the highest level at which one can get away with making gigantic open-raises. I disagree because so many people at 1/3 buy in short, but a deep 1/3 game with a generous rake structure? I wouldn't doubt it.
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Old 08-19-2014, 11:51 PM   #7785
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think that was a super long time ago when I had zero experience playing higher and just assumed people were good
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Old 08-20-2014, 12:49 AM   #7786
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Re: Good 1/2 Live Win Rates?

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I've seen people beat 1/3 for $30 an hour playing just solid TAG, with a flat rake drop and short effective stacks. Mix in a few thin moves in +EV spots, exploiting scared money, etc. and I think a very very good 1/3 player can make up to $40 an hour. If it plays deep, that could easily go up to $50.

Aesah once theorized that 1/3 has the highest potential winrate (in terms of bb/hr) because it's the highest level at which one can get away with making gigantic open-raises. I disagree because so many people at 1/3 buy in short, but a deep 1/3 game with a generous rake structure? I wouldn't doubt it.
Agreed, theres a couple ppl in my area beating 1/2nl for 16-19bbs/hr and they have shown me 1k+ hour samples. Didn't think it was possible with the rake myself but I never put in the volume to really know.

Games are very good here though.
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:34 AM   #7787
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Aesah View Post
I think that was a super long time ago when I had zero experience playing higher and just assumed people were good
Actually I think you'd been playing 5/10 for a while and then went down to 1/2 because that was what was available or something, and you were like "holy **** these people are BAAAAD."
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Old 08-20-2014, 01:35 AM   #7788
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I challenge anyone to post an unfabricated graph/stats of 30+/hr over 1k hours at 1/2 where the rake is somewhere around 5+1.

Skepticism aside, I'm legitimately interested.

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Old 08-20-2014, 01:42 AM   #7789
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I'm actually interested too. I've seen people who make $75 an hour at 2/5, but not that.
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Old 08-20-2014, 02:17 AM   #7790
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
I challenge anyone to post an unfabricated graph/stats of 30+/hr over 1k hours at 1/2 where the rake is somewhere around 5+1.

Skepticism aside, I'm legitimately interested.

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664 hours of 4+1. Was around $40/hr before recent downswing:



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Old 08-20-2014, 05:46 AM   #7791
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Last night had a pretty sick run short stacking. First I lost AIPF AK vs AJ for 60bbs at 2/5. Then I was called to 5/10 and lost AK vs KQ AIPF (started hand with 60bbs). I pulled out $1000 to buy in full but then realized I still had $140ish left after losing the pot so I decided to save my other buyin. I then doubled up vs the same guy KJ vs Jx, and in less than 10 minutes was back to my $600 starting stack after 3betting AIPF a couple times and taking down dead money. I then ran that up to $2300 within 45 minutes. On my last hand I limp folded 77 but had I called I would have been all in 3 ways on a 7 high flop and my stack would have been $6k. Would have been epic $140 to $6k in less than an hour, but my fold was the correct decision bleh.
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Old 08-20-2014, 07:07 AM   #7792
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

buy in full
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Old 08-20-2014, 10:33 AM   #7793
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
I challenge anyone to post an unfabricated graph/stats of 30+/hr over 1k hours at 1/2 where the rake is somewhere around 5+1.

Skepticism aside, I'm legitimately interested.

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Not quite, but.... (If you look close at the graph though, you can certainly deduce that the last 1k hours is most surely 30+)

[IMG][/IMG]
[IMG][/IMG]

Last edited by gila; 08-20-2014 at 10:43 AM. Reason: add info
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Old 08-21-2014, 09:53 PM   #7794
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

how are you guys winning at such a big clip at 1/2 and 1/3 and not moving up?
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Old 08-21-2014, 09:59 PM   #7795
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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how are you guys winning at such a big clip at 1/2 and 1/3 and not moving up?
Moving up to what?

A single $2/5 game with a small player pool of grinders?

In some places it's not worth it to "move up".
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Old 08-21-2014, 10:18 PM   #7796
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Moving up to what?

A single $2/5 game with a small player pool of grinders?

In some places it's not worth it to "move up".

I experienced this recently in my only local room. Tried the 2/5 game for 4 sessions. Won a modest amount and concluded that it's just not worth it. Plus my 1/2 games are 300 max or up to the biggest stack. Often just as much money on the table as normal 2/5 games.
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Old 08-21-2014, 10:32 PM   #7797
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

sure, if you're a rec player and you're just playing for enjoyment and some extra money (although that describes me and for my enjoyment I want to continue to grow and improve and that means challenging myself to beat better villains in a bigger game)

but if you're playing FT, then you're limiting your growth and earning potential by staying in a small game. realise being a big fish in a small pond makes you feel great and may be easy money but are you really going to be happy beating 1/2 for $30 an hour in two, four and ten years time?
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Old 08-21-2014, 11:07 PM   #7798
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agree that if you're a pro or aspiring pro you either need to become the best player in a less than soft game or move to a place with a bigger player pool at higher levels than 1/2.

I'm just an estimated 500hr/yr player who wants to make some side income so I'm happy at 1/2. Will likely never live anywhere near a major poker room so time spent becoming a supreme poker crusher would likely be a waste. Plus I already did that with LHE, and we know how that turned out, lol.
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Old 08-21-2014, 11:13 PM   #7799
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I don't actually (know how limit turned out for you) but fair enough re your objectives for playing.

I certainly had some growing pains 'moving up' to 5/5 which is the biggest hold em game in my room and is sometimes infested with pro players better than me and I still play the 3/3 when 5/5 looks nasty. I think I'm finally conditioned to the bigger game now, with like 170 hours of 5/5 over 18 months (I play 300 ish hours annually

It's definitely more enjoyable poker though and I enjoy the challenge far more than at 1/2
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Old 08-21-2014, 11:44 PM   #7800
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I imagine the limit Holdem game dried up. Just a guess.
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