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Old 08-02-2014, 12:32 PM   #7726
King Fish
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Keep a separate life roll. At this stage, be a bankroll nit. Build a cushion so you can shot take in comfort when your separate poker bankroll reaches the point where you can lose 2-3BI (at higher stakes) without "feeling" it. (Set clear goals with realistic expectations). In my experience, people who play with a combined roll play in fear. That's their rent/mortgage on the line, after all. Scared money may as well be a table donation, IMO.

Make sure your liferoll has the requisite 6 months, etc.

I've had 3 situations arise in last year where my bankroll (which is used to find unexpected and emergency issues that arise... part if an arrangement I have with my wife) has taken an unexpected 20 BI hit.

There are some thing you just can plan for, so you better plan for them.
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Old 08-03-2014, 01:25 PM   #7727
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Hi guys , another boring question about average Winrate. What would a good player average in a €2/4 game?
Average stacks is 100 BB and there are always 1-3 big fishes at the table .
Rake Is as follows :

- 0&euro; Rake when the pot is <75&euro;
- 5&euro; Rake, when the pot is 75 - 250 &euro;
- 10&euro; if 250 - 750
- 15&euro; if 750 - 1250
- 20&euro; if 1250 - 1750
- 25&euro; if 1750 - 2250

I know the Rake sucks but it's the best I can found in my area atm (germanys casinos sucks).

Do you think the game is beatable ?

In my area run another 2/4, with Rake 10% cap 10 Euro und max buy in 200BB. Do you think Is this game better or worse als the other one ? Player pool and skills are the same .

Sorry for the bad English !
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Old 08-03-2014, 01:40 PM   #7728
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I think the first game mentioned is a better rake structure.

I don't know much about European games but I'm gonna guess that 25-30/hr is solid with 40 probably being the max.

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Old 08-05-2014, 01:33 PM   #7729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Currently mired in my worst flatline and downswing at live 1/3NL:

Flatline: -$627 over last 154.5 hours (18 sessions, 10 wins vs 8 losses, -$4.06/hr)

Downswing: -$1967 over last 44.3 hours (-$44.40/hr)

Apparently, **** can happen. Who knew?

Goverall$28.53/hrover1818hoursG
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Old 08-05-2014, 05:38 PM   #7730
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Currently mired in my worst flatline and downswing at live 1/3NL:

Flatline: -$627 over last 154.5 hours (18 sessions, 10 wins vs 8 losses, -$4.06/hr)

Downswing: -$1967 over last 44.3 hours (-$44.40/hr)

Apparently, **** can happen. Who knew?

Goverall$28.53/hrover1818hoursG
It'll turn around eventually. Use this downer as motivation to improve your game though based on your posts, you seem pretty solid.
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Old 08-05-2014, 05:41 PM   #7731
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
The 12k is almost everything. I have a monthly nut of only a few hundred dollars. So I don't bother keeping a desperate life roll. I could make 1000 dollars last 6 months if need be. My wife has a decent job too.

I suppose I have some things that could be sold if life ever got hairy.

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Your monthly nut is a few hundred dollars and you are married. Do you live in Eastern Europe or something?
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Old 08-05-2014, 07:03 PM   #7732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Downswing: -$1967 over last 44.3 hours (-$44.40/hr)
This sounds similar to my February 2012, which at the time was one of, if not the, biggest downswings I'd had thus far.

I went on to win $17k over March/April/May.

Keep your chin up and make sure you keep tightening the screws on your game.

(Also, since that time, I've had sessions where I lost more than $1967. Not too many, fortunately.)
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Old 08-05-2014, 08:34 PM   #7733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

stick with it gg. I've just done some win rate analysis for the first time in a long while (because I'm on an upswing LDO) but it's proven how 'long' a downswing or an upswing can last for a keen rec player like you or me.

life situation - have a business that goes well but...a wife who doesn't have an income, three kids and three mortgages. So lots of 'wealth' but lots of debt and outgoings. I don't play poker for the money, I play because I enjoy it and for the challenge of getting better. But I won't ever dip into life roll for poker but do use poker roll sometimes for big expenses - bought a lounge suite, paid for a weekend away for wifey etc.

I forced myself to have a 4k BR before moving to 2/3 and a 7k BR before taking shots at 5/5. I average 300 hours a year

Currently have 1050 hours logged between a 1/1 home game (380ish hours) and the casino. Point of note is we have a hugely raked casino - 1/2 and 3/3 are $5ph table charge and then 10% to $10 per hand, 5/5 is $10ph and then 10% to $10 per hand. So we're paying $25-30ph to play and that impacts on win rate

The hour splits are pretty random but I've done this to prove a point about win rates

Hours 1-558, + $13899 at 15bb/hr, mainly crushing my 1/1 home game and the 1/2 and then 2/3 games

Hours 559-952 (394 hrs) - $947, winning 3bb/hr (where I still beat the small games but really struggled with both variance and the very different game conditions as I moved up to 5/5.)

Hours 952-1028 (76 hrs), + $8735 at 11.67bb/hr (had a mega loss at 1/1 which is affecting my bb/hr rate but am at 25bb/hr + at 2/3, 2/4 and 5/5, where I am literally running like Jebus)

Total 1029 hours +$21.6k at 7.5bb/hr

Stakes win rates are
+15 bb/hr at 1/1 (400 hours)
+10.5bb/hr at 1/2 (213 hours)
+9.3bb/hr at 2/3 (210 hours)
+5.5bb/hr at 2/4 (63 hours)
+5.5bb/hr at 5/5 (148 hours)

Both my 2/4 and 5/5 win rates look a lot better than they did 80 hours ago!

I don't know how good a player I am, what the overall EV situation of my personal variance is over the 1k hours etc, but I do know that for rec players, the long term takes a loooong time and we have to be super careful to invest any meaning at all into 50, 100, 200 etc up or down swings.

ATsai made a point a page or two back about the guys who give up poker if they run bad to start and I think that's exactly right. If I had had my break even/losing stretch of 400 hours at the beginning, I'm damn sure I wouldn't be here. I was really disillusioned late last year and was very fortunate to bink a $14k tourney score to bolster my flagging spirits.

I'm also very happy I had the discipline not to burn through my bankroll when I was winning early on. I'm reminding myself of that as I keep being tempted about taking a shot at a $3kBI donkament at my casino this weekend!
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Old 08-05-2014, 09:41 PM   #7734
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I won about 1.2k in ~40 hrs purely rec untracked 1/2 before this so the stats are a little better than shown. It's such a tiny amount of hands though, I am pretty sure my true rate is higher (or lower) than +3bb/hr. The sick thing is, the only way to find out is to play more hands, and that's quite an investment in live poker. Little different than cranking out 1k SNGs in a week and powering through a downswing.
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Old 08-05-2014, 10:17 PM   #7735
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Bro if you never tipped you'd up your win rate by almost 11%...

But seriously, if you were cranking out 1k SNGs a week online and you were winning, you should be able to beat 1/2 for more than this.

Good luck regardless.
If you post some hand histories we will be happy to give you some feed back.
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Old 08-05-2014, 11:19 PM   #7736
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7500 hands is not a lot of hands unless you're talking about a human
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Old 08-05-2014, 11:30 PM   #7737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

nice Duke.

also...1k sit n gos in a week? That would send me over the edge
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Old 08-06-2014, 05:07 AM   #7738
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Iraise

nice graph sir!

have you got your bb/hr numbers for the different levels you play?

assume you're playing 2/5 now where possible?
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Old 08-06-2014, 08:07 AM   #7739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
Iraise

nice graph sir!

have you got your bb/hr numbers for the different levels you play?

assume you're playing 2/5 now where possible?
I've got all the BB/Hour numbers and all that, but I don't really ever look at them. It's all just noise given the sample size at each level currently.

I never play 2/5 at my home casino (2 miles away) as they only have 1/2 and 5/5 which is a deep stack 100 - 500bb game and there are 3 professionals, and 3 very competent semi-pros, 1 random normally and 1 - 2 recs who play enough to not be idiots. Not really the crowd I feel like sitting down with. And my 1/2 games play like a 2/5 game anyway in that opening sizes for most of the regs are $14+, and normally 4+ people sitting 200bb deep or more.
The closest 2/5 games other than that are 45 minutes and 1.5 hours away, so I only get out there on the weekends when I have more time to stay (4+ hours).
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Old 08-06-2014, 12:08 PM   #7740
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
This sounds similar to my February 2012, which at the time was one of, if not the, biggest downswings I'd had thus far.

I went on to win $17k over March/April/May.

Keep your chin up and make sure you keep tightening the screws on your game.

(Also, since that time, I've had sessions where I lost more than $1967. Not too many, fortunately.)
The last time I flatlined like this I followed it up with my biggest upswing, so things can definitely turn on a dime.

Ya, tightening the screws is exactly what I'm doing. Really trying my best to play perfect (or, at least, my version of it) and try to reduce the number of hands in a session, that in hindsight, I feel I misplayed.

I'm assuming your > $1967 losses are in bigger stakes than 1/3 NL (cuz, otherwise, gross!).

Gnot*too*worriedaboutit,morejustannoyedG
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Old 08-06-2014, 12:12 PM   #7741
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Quote:
Originally Posted by feel wrath View Post
but it's proven how 'long' a downswing or an upswing can last for a keen rec player like you or me.
Amen to this. I managed to book 568 hours as a rec player last year (I'm assuming on the decent end for a rec player), and that is sooooo just a drop in the bucket.

GlongtermkindatakesawhileG
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Old 08-06-2014, 07:01 PM   #7742
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been thinking about taking 3/5 shots. BR is $4800. I spend my BR on life sometimes. Have separate life roll and I do not live from poker in any way. The problem is, if I blow this roll, I will have to argue with my wife to get any more poker money. She owes me 1300 right now.

Should prolly wait, right? But I can always take one shot and step back to 1/3. Also jonesing for some plololololol. My casino has 2/2 with 5 bring in.

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Old 08-06-2014, 07:13 PM   #7743
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It's a little less than I took shots with. I started when I had 7k....logic being a 1k shot while leaving 2000bbs for 2/3

Definitely think it's a gradual process anyway. You can see my hours and results above but I still regularly play 3/3 if I think the 5/5 game looks too reg/pro infested and will continue to do so
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Old 08-06-2014, 07:19 PM   #7744
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yah, saw your stats above wrathy. I'm feeling impatient. Dumped $5k last year at 3/5. Feel I've been very disciplined playing 1/3 this year, feel ready for 3/5. 2BI max ($1k). Then back to the 1/3 grind. But hopefully off to the races instead. I might play plololol tonight though. Will check out 3/5 and 2/2 plololol.
Blame it on bip! Jelly of his results. Figure why not me ?
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Old 08-06-2014, 07:51 PM   #7745
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I ran pretty well my first two times - +1.3 and then +500 but then fared pretty badly

my 5/5 game can be pretty much like what iraise described earlier. We have 3 or 4 really tough pro guys and because the 10.20 no longer gets up (damn you Omaha), those guys play 5/5. I tried to sit down vs them and also tried to change my game to combat them and it resulted in bad play.

as long as you keep your ego in check and game select, you should be OK.

just make sure you flop lots of sets
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Old 08-12-2014, 08:55 PM   #7746
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Disclaimer; not a huge fan of posting stats over small sample sizes, but I felt this needed to be said in this thread

If you are a "Pro" who is not "crushing" (10bb/hr+ at your stake), you really should consider coaching. Ever since I received coaching my winrate has skyrocketed. Sample is small, sure but I see the difference. I have played a little $1/2 and $5/10 NOT included in this figure, but this is all my $2/5 strictly rolled up since mid-april when I received coaching. This is all with buyins of 100bb (500$)

Also highly recommend a mental coach or a lot of mental game books. Without that skills mean nothing. Note: I was wining 8.5 bb/hour historically at $2/5 prior to having a coach over 1k hours. I also don't think is this sustainable, but its nice to know I have the potential to make this kind of earn over a given 500 hour block.


Last edited by Pay4Myschool; 08-12-2014 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 08-12-2014, 09:26 PM   #7747
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Frish on a eater
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Old 08-13-2014, 03:14 AM   #7748
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by pokerodox View Post
I've been thinking about taking 3/5 shots. BR is $4800. I spend my BR on life sometimes. Have separate life roll and I do not live from poker in any way. The problem is, if I blow this roll, I will have to argue with my wife to get any more poker money. She owes me 1300 right now.

Should prolly wait, right? But I can always take one shot and step back to 1/3. Also jonesing for some plololololol. My casino has 2/2 with 5 bring in.

It depends on how much you spend our of your bankroll (more taken out means more money needed), But I'd say you need at least 8k for 2/5 or 2/2 PLO.
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Old 08-13-2014, 09:20 AM   #7749
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

P4MS,

Nice 2/5 NL stats. Once you have accumulated some more 5/10 NL volume throughout the rest of the year, I expect to see you achieving $100+/hour win-rates at 5/10 NL.
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Old 08-14-2014, 11:11 PM   #7750
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

2/5 is normally the biggest game spread at my local casino. The buy-in is uncapped and the grinder types usually have stacks of $1,500 or more. Typically the rec players and tourists buy in for $500 or so at a time.

I'm just starting to take shots at this game and I'm underrolled. I play for profit but have a full time job and am okay being aggressive with my bankroll. Is it totally fine buying in for $500 even though that will often put my in the bottom 1/3 of the table stack-wise? Are there any disadvantages other than sometimes not covering all the bad to mediocre players that I need to be aware of?

BR is currently at $4,700 and I'm willing to risk about $1,500 on this shot. I'm a teacher so the only real concern is that I have a decent enough roll to stay in action at least for 1/2 come next summer.
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