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Old 06-25-2014, 01:39 PM   #7476
gobbledygeek
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by fun101 View Post
Do you include breakeven sessions in your streak?
I've only ever had one breakeven session (i.e. exactly $0), although I recently shipped a $1 session. It doesn't really matter, this streak stuff is just for fun anyways, but a breakeven session is a breakeven session, not a winning session, not a losing session. So if it occurs in the middle of a winning streak then my suggestion is that your winning streak would be over but your unbeaten streak would not be (and ditto if it occurred in the middle of a losing streak).

GimoG
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Old 06-25-2014, 06:29 PM   #7477
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi all I'm an italian pro and I start playing online for living at the end of 2010.
Two month ago I figured out to start playing live cash games at the casino mainly for 3 reasons: first I love play live, second I think in live games there are the biggest whale and third the online gmes became more complex year after year.
I have a consistent roll 200k€+ and I'm player nl200/nl400 online hu cash but my plan is to became a live pro in about 3/4 years.
I start playing nl200 live because this is the lower stakes here in Italy and after 100h my winrates is about 25bb/h, I think there is a lot of goodrun because I miss so much value in several spots but definitely tehre are a lot of money to do.
In Italy there is 2 casinò that have only nl1k games and in these casino there are the biggest italian whale so I'm asking for a schedule for the shot at nl1k.
I'm thinking to play about 1kh at nl200 to learn about the live fishy dynamic and after go to nl500 and so on, but some friend tell me is very very too nitty so I find this 3d very cool and I hope some guy can help me
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Old 06-25-2014, 11:43 PM   #7478
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

200k BR and 25bb/hr WR.

You're too awesome for anyone here to be capable of helping you.
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Old 06-26-2014, 01:36 AM   #7479
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A guy with 1 post w/200k br asking for a stake to play 5/10. Sounds legit.
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Old 06-26-2014, 01:46 AM   #7480
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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
% of Winning Session Stat is relatively meaningless. Anyone can achieve a high % of winning session stat just by "hit and ruhning" when they are winning a little and playing 24 hours straight until they get "unstuck." Obviously, that would be a horrendous strategy for any poker player (and will make a pro poker player busto pretty quickly).

The only numbers that really matter are: hourly win-rate, hours played, and total profit. I would actually say that hourly win-rate is also an over-rated statistic because I know a lot of poker players who artificially inflate their hourly win-rate by taking long breaks when games are just average and/or table-changing and casino-hopping like madmen for very marginal win-rate improvements that actually hurt their total profit per session significantly.

it is pretty hilarious to see people "pause" their smartphone live poker tracking apps when they are walking around the casino when the game slows down and/or is short-handed...just because they refuse to play if the action isn't red hot and/or there isn't a full 9-handed table. These are the same deluded individuals who fancy themselves "pros" when they are really wannabees.

If you are a top-notch live pro, you should probably only care about high-quality hours played and total profit per session/month/year. Everything else is smoke and mirrors...even hourly win-rate.
Yep. Hourly rate * hours played = net profit. Generally speaking, guess which one of those numbers is the easiest to increase?

Net profit is all that matters. Hourly rate is a good indicator of someone's potential or lack thereof but without any actual hours put into it that's all it is...potential.
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Old 06-26-2014, 01:48 AM   #7481
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Your Mom had potential until I put some hours in.
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Old 06-26-2014, 02:24 AM   #7482
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Old 06-26-2014, 02:37 AM   #7483
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by scourrge View Post
I agree in part, but not sure this is quite the right way to think of it. There's an opportunity cost associated with literally everything. Even if the cost is just missing out on some sleeping, odds are that affects some stuff the next day.
I see what you're saying. That's a rich person's problem the way I see it though. Carlos Boozer can sleep 10 hours a day, who cares, he has $120M in just salary earnings since Duke. If the Bulls cut him, whatever. Jabari Parker has $0 in earnings, he'd be best off right now sleeping 3 hours per night. I don't expect everyone to agree with that, but I'm a workhorse. 5% of my sessions are 18+ hours, 15% are 12+ hours, 46% are 8+ hours.

If you knew a whale was going to be playing at 6pm Monday, I wouldn't make an all-nighter of it on Sunday. But almost always, I play the huge sessions when the game stays good all night, it doesn't happen that often so when it does I stick around. And you just don't play the next day, or sleep for 15 hours and then play again.
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Old 06-26-2014, 05:15 AM   #7484
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371 logged sessions. Average session length is 6.25 hours. 65% win percent. Hourly 70 per hour. Mostly plo. Biggest downswing is like 22k (this week, lol)

Standard deviation is a touch over 1000 dollars per hour.
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Old 06-26-2014, 09:35 AM   #7485
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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
A guy with 1 post w/200k br asking for a stake to play 5/10. Sounds legit.
I win online and I don't play a lot live game so I'm thinking about starting low stake and up in stakes after a while.
I'm asking when I have to move up in stake...

Here my last 2 years graph (In Italy rake is huge I pay like 7bb/100 at nl200 so the rakeback is also huge)

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Old 06-26-2014, 09:42 AM   #7486
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I work at 0630 a lot so my sessions currently run super short because I
ve to get up early or hit the wall early. It's a little frustrating. That being said I don't have to worry too much about B game because I'm forced to quit after 3-4 hours. Say I do get a long session in. I'm beginning to think its profitable to stick a 45 minute dinner break in around the 3-4 hr mark just to reset my brain. I'm thinking the profit lost in that 45 min might be made up in better play in the final 3-4 hrs. Anyone else do this?
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Old 06-26-2014, 10:29 AM   #7487
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Yes, take a dinner break for sure.
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Old 06-26-2014, 11:24 AM   #7488
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I work at 0630 a lot so my sessions currently run super short because I
ve to get up early or hit the wall early. It's a little frustrating. That being said I don't have to worry too much about B game because I'm forced to quit after 3-4 hours. Say I do get a long session in. I'm beginning to think its profitable to stick a 45 minute dinner break in around the 3-4 hr mark just to reset my brain. I'm thinking the profit lost in that 45 min might be made up in better play in the final 3-4 hrs. Anyone else do this?
Meh, I only leave the table for bathroom breaks. Eat dinner at the table, imo, and just practice playing longer sessions.

If you want to take a brain break, just zone out during some of your folded hands.

GimoG
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Old 06-26-2014, 11:38 AM   #7489
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Foldeverytime View Post
I win online and I don't play a lot live game so I'm thinking about starting low stake and up in stakes after a while.
I'm asking when I have to move up in stake...

Here my last 2 years graph (In Italy rake is huge I pay like 7bb/100 at nl200 so the rakeback is also huge)

Ah, my mistake. If that's true I think you should start at nl500 at the lowest, play 100-200 hours to get comfortable with live dynamics, then move up to nl1000.
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Old 06-26-2014, 11:52 AM   #7490
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I say just play 1/2 enough to get your bearings in live play. There's an adjustment period for everyone so do it as cheaply as possible. Then jump up ASAP.
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Old 06-26-2014, 01:31 PM   #7491
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ty all
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Old 06-26-2014, 06:53 PM   #7492
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I see what you're saying. That's a rich person's problem the way I see it though. Carlos Boozer can sleep 10 hours a day, who cares, he has $120M in just salary earnings since Duke. If the Bulls cut him, whatever. Jabari Parker has $0 in earnings, he'd be best off right now sleeping 3 hours per night. I don't expect everyone to agree with that, but I'm a workhorse. 5% of my sessions are 18+ hours, 15% are 12+ hours, 46% are 8+ hours.

If you knew a whale was going to be playing at 6pm Monday, I wouldn't make an all-nighter of it on Sunday. But almost always, I play the huge sessions when the game stays good all night, it doesn't happen that often so when it does I stick around. And you just don't play the next day, or sleep for 15 hours and then play again.
Before it seemed like you were saying to stay in the game for a long time even if it wasn't that good (this might not have been you saying this, but someone said if you rate to win $20 over the next 4 hours, that's still $20 in your pocket or w/e).

Agree stick around when the game is good, but again that's still talking in terms of opportunity cost. If the game is good, the expected profit of sticking around a long time is larger than the opportunity cost in being forced to stay in a casino for hours on end and not sleeping etc.

In fact pretty much everything you just said refers to opportunity cost:
- Knowing a whale will play the next day means not sleeping represents higher cost
- Good game going currently = greater chance of negating the opportunity cost

Anyway, not trying to be a stickler or whatever, but I think it's a relevant concept in a lot of situations. I've played a lot of sessions for a lot longer than it made sense to given the cost/reward, so it's not like I'm claiming to be perfect about it lol. But I def think that thinking about it in that way can help people make better decisions.
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Old 06-26-2014, 07:43 PM   #7493
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
I work at 0630 a lot so my sessions currently run super short because I
ve to get up early or hit the wall early. It's a little frustrating. That being said I don't have to worry too much about B game because I'm forced to quit after 3-4 hours. Say I do get a long session in. I'm beginning to think its profitable to stick a 45 minute dinner break in around the 3-4 hr mark just to reset my brain. I'm thinking the profit lost in that 45 min might be made up in better play in the final 3-4 hrs. Anyone else do this?
Play all night, keep an extra dress shirt, a tooth brush, and deodorant in your car. Just play till 5:45. Quickly change, brush, and spray then head to work. You are not a true degen till you have done this.

I haven't done this but I am thinking about doing it soon.
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Old 06-26-2014, 08:26 PM   #7494
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Quote:
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Play all night, keep an extra dress shirt, a tooth brush, and deodorant in your car. Just play till 5:45. Quickly change, brush, and spray then head to work. You are not a true degen till you have done this.

I haven't done this but I am thinking about doing it soon.
It sounds fun but you will regret it the minute you do it. Go home, get a good nights sleep, go to work rested, play poker later.
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Old 06-26-2014, 09:05 PM   #7495
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When evaluating how much value there is in playing a game, most players simply look at the other players in the game. However, that is only half of the equation. The other half of the equation is how well you are playing. I often get to the casino at midnight or later and it's crazy how bad players start playing when they are tired. Even good players often start making silly mistakes and the craziest thing about it is that they often don't even realize they are playing poorly.
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Old 06-26-2014, 10:58 PM   #7496
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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
Yep. Hourly rate * hours played = net profit.
while this is true, there is going to be a point where hours played will decrease your win rate to a point where it is just not profitable enough.
I see so many live regs playing 14hrs+ 6 days a week when they could be playing ~10hrs/5 days with the same profit (imo).
not only is it bad for your hourly, its so fkn bad for your health.
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Old 06-26-2014, 11:29 PM   #7497
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It's also bad for your personal life.
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Old 06-26-2014, 11:30 PM   #7498
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by fun101 View Post
Play all night, keep an extra dress shirt, a tooth brush, and deodorant in your car. Just play till 5:45. Quickly change, brush, and spray then head to work. You are not a true degen till you have done this.

I haven't done this but I am thinking about doing it soon.
Done similar for work. Stayed at the office working all night, grabbed some deodorant from the car, took a 30 min cat-nap at my desk, and stuck around for most of the rest day. Sucked donkey balls. It really screwed you up.

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It sounds fun but you will regret it the minute you do it. Go home, get a good nights sleep, go to work rested, play poker later.
I'd actually be tempted to sleep in the afternoon after work for 6 hours, get up at 9pm or whatever, and head to the poker room for an overnight session. Basically just rotate my whole schedule.
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Old 06-27-2014, 01:19 AM   #7499
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I have played golf many times after not sleeping at all though mainly for non-poker reasons. I don't think it would be too big a deal to work after a full night of poker especially if you are young and your job is not too mentally or physically draining.
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Old 06-27-2014, 12:29 PM   #7500
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I work for a children's hospital so that's not really an option.

The day games are proving to be pretty beatable anyway just in a different way. Super lag is fun!
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