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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
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[OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

06-10-2014 , 05:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyZ Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
2/3 game is the closest (25 miles) and anything bigger is 70-80 miles away. 2/3 already plays like 2/5 & the only difference is the $300 cap. I figured if I was gonna commute I might as well play 5/10. Skill levels seem the same as every other game I played.

Instead of taking another "shot" when i get to 18/20k I might try the $300-$1,000 5/5? Game @ the bike. Seems a lot "safer" for my BR.

Thanks for the input.
For playing full time I think that jumping up to the 5-10 with your bankroll is overly aggressive, grind the 2/3 for awhile longer. gl
06-10-2014 , 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Like, idk, I looked at my stats today and realized that I really have worked hard on my game... so how the **** am I break-even at 1/2 and 1/3 but winning 11bb/hr at 2/5 since I started playing live poker?
IMO it takes 400+ hours at a single game, a single stakes, a single location, to get a reasonable picture of whether or not you are beating that game, and by how much. How can you even think about winrate when you switch games so much?
06-10-2014 , 07:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
but I really don't get into many big pots at 1/2. If I stack someone, they're usually short-stacked... otherwise I'm just getting 1 street of value a lot and they fold the turn or they fold to a flop c-bet. People at 1/2 aren't stacking off for 100bb as lightly as they seem to do at 2/5.
You've identified a tendency? Perfect! Now exploit it! If you don't know how to exploit ALL tendencies, you need to learn more about poker.

I agree that the smallest games have the tendencies you describe, as compared to the next step up. I disagree that this is a problem. You don't make most of your money from stacking weak/tight, you make money from raise/c-betting them to death, and giving up when you're beat, which is easy to know when they practically show you their cards. And as they start to adjust to that strategy, voila, now you can stack them.
06-10-2014 , 11:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Tim Brice Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I somehow managed to book a winning May despite going on a $3600 downswing during the month. I have no clue how, but the numbers don't lie.
Nice job on winning overall for the month despite having a brutal downswing within the month.
06-11-2014 , 12:32 AM
finally about to receive a 10kish deposit to my bank from fulltilt within the next week (I was 2nd wave of payments)

obvious play is to take shots @ 5/10

going to vegas from mid June-early July.... which casino(s) theoretically should be the softest during this timeframe for 5/10?

thx
06-11-2014 , 09:28 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by timmay28 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
finally about to receive a 10kish deposit to my bank from fulltilt within the next week (I was 2nd wave of payments)

obvious play is to take shots @ 5/10

going to vegas from mid June-early July.... which casino(s) theoretically should be the softest during this timeframe for 5/10?

thx
Bellagio 5T
06-11-2014 , 01:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
so how the **** am I break-even at 1/2 and 1/3 but winning 11bb/hr at 2/5 since I started playing live poker?

I am sure this is the biggest culprit. But even doing dumb **** once in a while shouldn't take me from being a decent winner to being break-even? I am sure variance is playing a roll... but I really don't get into many big pots at 1/2. If I stack someone, they're usually short-stacked... otherwise I'm just getting 1 street of value a lot and they fold the turn or they fold to a flop c-bet. People at 1/2 aren't stacking off for 100bb as lightly as they seem to do at 2/5.
A bunch of us have periodically pointed out your fps in your pg&c. You sometimes get away from the fps, but apparently go back to it?

fwiw, my results are almost entirely a function of how fps/spewy I am during a given time period. Almost every losing session I can attribute to being too splashy/spewy. That's probably true for a lot of us. So yes doing dumb **** DOES lead to a reduction in wr, and when win rates are sensitive, as they are when hours aren't large, it could make wr=0.
06-12-2014 , 05:09 AM
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
FPS likely bro.

You are better than a lot of them. You know that you are better than them. So, you might do fancy stuff (like 3betting with ATC which happens to be T2o I seem to recall) to get them to fold or call.

Just because we can think on level 3 and 4 doesn't mean that they even understand what level 0 is. Just remember that.
This is the biggest leak I had. Not FPS, but assuming unknown players were decent players. I would make some really terrible calls thinking "he didn't chase the gut-shot to the river with a flush out there".

I have a decent WR at the 5/5 $500 here in LA. But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds. Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high-variance game. I actually prefer to play a $300 buyin game, but there aren't any soft ones where it's 100BB.
06-12-2014 , 12:45 PM
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Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
This is the biggest leak I had. Not FPS, but assuming unknown players were decent players. I would make some really terrible calls thinking "he didn't chase the gut-shot to the river with a flush out there".

I have a decent WR at the 5/5 $500 here in LA. But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds. Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high-variance game. I actually prefer to play a $300 buyin game, but there aren't any soft ones where it's 100BB.
Really? LATB a few weeks ago had a 2/3 game, $300 max buyin. Seemed pretty passive/soft.
06-12-2014 , 07:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds.
False

Quote:
Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high variance
True
06-13-2014 , 03:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by serio562 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
False



True
When you get 6 people calling your 12xBB PFR when you have a top 10 starting hand in late position, you're likely going to lose. Worst yet, with that many people calling, you're 2 options at flop is AI or fold. Even worse yet, the flop is likely going to contain a flush/strait draw which 1 to 3 Vs will chase until the river.

I guess your definition of "soft" is different than mine. Being able to buyin only 33BB is definitely not a "soft" game to me. It just gives the fish a massive advantage and it really limits my play to PF & flop.
06-13-2014 , 03:40 AM
Go where they respect your raises then.
06-13-2014 , 03:48 AM
Would absolutely love to be in games where my raises get six callers lol
06-13-2014 , 05:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
When you get 6 people calling your 12xBB PFR
You can raise 20BB and get HU.
06-13-2014 , 05:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Would absolutely love to be in games where my raises get six callers lol
Cliche. Obviously, you want to be deep in these games, not 33BBs. Also, I think optimal is 1 to 3 callers PF, not 6. LOL. You do realize even with AA, you're going to lose the hand like 4 out of 5 times against that many players. I don't think anyone who knows stats likes having 1/3 of your stack in PF with any hand against that many people.
06-13-2014 , 05:26 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Cliche. Obviously, you want to be deep in these games, not 33BBs. Also, I think optimal is 1 to 3 callers PF, not 6. LOL. You do realize even with AA, you're going to lose the hand like 4 out of 5 times against that many players. I don't think anyone who knows stats likes having 1/3 of your stack in PF with any hand against that many people.
Pot odds though

Its not about AA even though you're still making a profit if you get 6 callers with that hand. Its when you call a raise, 5 other people follow you and you flop a set
06-13-2014 , 05:28 AM
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Originally Posted by eldiesel Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
You can raise 20BB and get HU.
I agree. That's more than half your stack, btw, so might as well go allin.

Back to my point: the short-stack 33BB games are not "super-soft". Some regulars I talk to say those games are unbeatable (mostly due to the ridiculous rake). My WR is much higher & variance is much lower in the higher games (100BB).
06-13-2014 , 05:30 AM
^ Ok. I thought you meant they weren't soft because of the player pool. You mean they're not soft because the no matter how bad the player pool is, the structure makes it's impossible for it to be soft, the structure is taking the skill out of the game. Makes sense now. It's LA though? There isn't a 100BB game nearby?
06-13-2014 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Pot odds though

Its not about AA even though you're still making a profit if you get 6 callers with that hand. Its when you call a raise, 5 other people follow you and you flop a set
Now we're going way off topic. I posted that my WR is higher in a 100BB game vs a 33BB game, which should be no surprise.

2nd, set-mining in a 33BB game is obviously -EV like 99% of the time.

3rd, don't be so certain until you've played at least 500 hrs. Trust me, a table of 8 fishing donkeys is most likely not going to be the best table unless you're running like god.
06-13-2014 , 05:45 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
^ Ok. I thought you meant they weren't soft because of the player pool. You mean they're not soft because the no matter how bad the player pool is, the structure makes it's impossible for it to be soft, the structure is taking the skill out of the game. Makes sense now. It's LA though? There isn't a 100BB game nearby?
It's actually the 3:

1. Rake is too damn high
2. Low buyin stucture
3. Too many bad players (I guess 2 & 3 are inter-related)
06-13-2014 , 05:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Now we're going way off topic. I posted that my WR is higher in a 100BB game vs a 33BB game, which should be no surprise.

2nd, set-mining in a 33BB game is obviously -EV like 99% of the time.

3rd, don't be so certain until you've played at least 500 hrs. Trust me, a table of 8 fishing donkeys is most likely not going to be the best table unless you're running like god.
100bb deep, a table of 8 donkeys who never fold is going to be the best game

You will make more money when you make hands than you'll lose when you don't make hands... By a lot

Just don't bluff and c/f every time you miss the flop... And get max value when you do hit it. Its so easy
06-13-2014 , 05:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
100bb deep, a table of 8 donkeys who never fold is going to be the best game

You will make more money when you make hands than you'll lose when you don't make hands... By a lot

Just don't bluff and c/f every time you miss the flop... And get max value when you do hit it. Its so easy
Facepalm. We were talking about a 33BB game. We've been talking about a 33BB game the whole time. I even said, don't be so certain until you've played like 500 hours at a 33BB game. Anyone who was reading our posts would know that we were talking about a 33BB game.

Anyways, if you won't take my word for it, try it yourself or ask reputable winning LA grinders. Actually, I take that back because most of them won't know cuz they don't ever play those games. LOL.
06-13-2014 , 05:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Facepalm. We were talking about a 33BB game. We've been talking about a 33BB game the whole time. I even said, don't be so certain until you've played like 500 hours at a 33BB game. Anyone who was reading our posts would know that we were talking about a 33BB game.

Anyways, if you won't take my word for it, try it yourself or ask reputable winning LA grinders. Actually, I take that back because most of them won't know cuz they don't ever play those games. LOL.
I know what you're talking about, I was just stating I wish I played in games where I was called in 5 spots every time and no one ever folded

Yea 33bb deep is not beatable. I thought that was a given.
06-13-2014 , 06:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
I know what you're talking about, I was just stating I wish I played in games where I was called in 5 spots every time and no one ever folded

Yea 33bb deep is not beatable. I thought that was a given.
I thought that was a given, too, but people are arguing against me. This is evident when I say:
Quote:
Originally Posted by charlie310 Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
Cliche. Obviously, you want to be deep in these games, not 33BBs. Also, I think optimal is 1 to 3 callers PF, not 6. LOL. You do realize even with AA, you're going to lose the hand like 4 out of 5 times against that many players. I don't think anyone who knows stats likes having 1/3 of your stack in PF with any hand against that many people.
and people are still arguing with me telling me it's profitable to set-mine in these games. LOL.

No offense, and I get it. These 33BB games don't really exist outside LA so it's not common knowledge how these games are.
06-13-2014 , 08:09 AM
If the play is really bad and you play super tight then it's probably beatable but likely not worth your time

      
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