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Old 06-10-2014, 12:28 PM   #7376
bwslim69
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
FPS likely bro.

You are better than a lot of them. You know that you are better than them. So, you might do fancy stuff (like 3betting with ATC which happens to be T2o I seem to recall) to get them to fold or call.

Just because we can think on level 3 and 4 doesn't mean that they even understand what level 0 is. Just remember that.
Probably the number 1 trait that defines "better" IMO is understanding how your player pool thinks and only playing 1 step ahead of them (or more appropriately stated adjusting to their level of play). Not 2 or 3 levels higher than they think. That's spewy FPS and is a trait of a player that really isn't "better". Yeah that player may have more theoretical poker knowledge but applies it incorrectly, in the wrong spots, etc. Not sure if that is the case with Duke though I suspect it is at least partially true.

but yeah sample sizes
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:34 PM   #7377
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
You'll likely ignore me since we aren't "friends" but maybe you are not nearly as good as you think you are (or at least thought you were). I'm not saying this definitively I am saying this is a possibility.

Not saying you didn't have reasons to shot take and that seems fine but perhaps you aren't/weren't ready. Tighten up some leaks, put in monster hours at 1/2 and 1/3, stop spewing, ABC it up, listen to others who have significantly more experience and results to back it up, proft, rinse and repeat.

Just because you have the roll for a certain level doesn't mean you are ready to beat that level.
Yeah, I think you're right. I try to play very ABC at 1/2 but at times, I just can't help myself. And I'll look at HHs and try to convert the numbers to BBs and ask myself if I would ever make this play at a 2/5 game. I usually wouldn't, but it just feels so easy to throw $10 in or $20 in at 1/2.

FWIW, I know I seem like a huge clown to you who is destined for busto, but I have received coaching from ATsai to tighten up my leaks, I have subscriptions to a bunch of training sites, and I talk about poker with friends on and off pretty much for hours and hours every day (like not straight through, but usually there is always someone texting me a hand or whatever). Like, idk, I looked at my stats today and realized that I really have worked hard on my game... so how the **** am I break-even at 1/2 and 1/3 but winning 11bb/hr at 2/5 since I started playing live poker?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
FPS likely bro.

You are better than a lot of them. You know that you are better than them. So, you might do fancy stuff (like 3betting with ATC which happens to be T2o I seem to recall) to get them to fold or call.

Just because we can think on level 3 and 4 doesn't mean that they even understand what level 0 is. Just remember that.
I am sure this is the biggest culprit. But even doing dumb **** once in a while shouldn't take me from being a decent winner to being break-even? I am sure variance is playing a roll... but I really don't get into many big pots at 1/2. If I stack someone, they're usually short-stacked... otherwise I'm just getting 1 street of value a lot and they fold the turn or they fold to a flop c-bet. People at 1/2 aren't stacking off for 100bb as lightly as they seem to do at 2/5.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:35 PM   #7378
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Just seems impossible to never have had a 500bb downswing. I lost 420bb playing $1/2 yesterday in two hours just with a few coolers (QQ<AA, K9<A9 on 992 flop, flush over flush, trips against a boat in heads up pot, few three outer rivers, etc). Ended up with a 200bb win at end of day but that's a 620bb swing just in one 6 hour session. Doesn't matter how well you play, can't run like a champ forever. All of the best players I know seem to have a max of about 1000-1500bb downswing at some point depending on stakes/structure.
Only a 1,724 hour sample size, so still just starting out; no doubt I have a 5 BI downswing waiting for me around the corner. About a month ago I was stuck ~450bb in a single session before turning that particular session around for just an average biggish loss, so yeah, it'll happen.

Gbutithasn't.happened.yet.G
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:59 PM   #7379
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Only a 1,724 hour sample size, so still just starting out; no doubt I have a 5 BI downswing waiting for me around the corner. About a month ago I was stuck ~450bb in a single session before turning that particular session around for just an average biggish loss, so yeah, it'll happen.

Gbutithasn't.happened.yet.G
That's still insane over 1700 hours...but nice work. I've seen solid players lose 600+bb in a single session before, especially if the game is good and they are running bad.
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Old 06-10-2014, 01:21 PM   #7380
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I somehow managed to book a winning May despite going on a $3600 downswing during the month. I have no clue how, but the numbers don't lie.
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Old 06-10-2014, 04:29 PM   #7381
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If there is no limit between 2/3 and 5/10 I think you should be more conservative with taking shots.. at $18k I would be taking 200bb shots at 5/10 at the most and move down if drop below $15k. Its going to take a huge grind/run good to get back a standard loss (3-4k) in a 5/10 by playing 2/3.
2/3 game is the closest (25 miles) and anything bigger is 70-80 miles away. 2/3 already plays like 2/5 & the only difference is the $300 cap. I figured if I was gonna commute I might as well play 5/10. Skill levels seem the same as every other game I played.

Instead of taking another "shot" when i get to 18/20k I might try the $300-$1,000 5/5? Game @ the bike. Seems a lot "safer" for my BR.

Thanks for the input.
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Old 06-10-2014, 05:18 PM   #7382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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2/3 game is the closest (25 miles) and anything bigger is 70-80 miles away. 2/3 already plays like 2/5 & the only difference is the $300 cap. I figured if I was gonna commute I might as well play 5/10. Skill levels seem the same as every other game I played.

Instead of taking another "shot" when i get to 18/20k I might try the $300-$1,000 5/5? Game @ the bike. Seems a lot "safer" for my BR.

Thanks for the input.
For playing full time I think that jumping up to the 5-10 with your bankroll is overly aggressive, grind the 2/3 for awhile longer. gl
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Old 06-10-2014, 07:10 PM   #7383
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Like, idk, I looked at my stats today and realized that I really have worked hard on my game... so how the **** am I break-even at 1/2 and 1/3 but winning 11bb/hr at 2/5 since I started playing live poker?
IMO it takes 400+ hours at a single game, a single stakes, a single location, to get a reasonable picture of whether or not you are beating that game, and by how much. How can you even think about winrate when you switch games so much?
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Old 06-10-2014, 07:17 PM   #7384
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but I really don't get into many big pots at 1/2. If I stack someone, they're usually short-stacked... otherwise I'm just getting 1 street of value a lot and they fold the turn or they fold to a flop c-bet. People at 1/2 aren't stacking off for 100bb as lightly as they seem to do at 2/5.
You've identified a tendency? Perfect! Now exploit it! If you don't know how to exploit ALL tendencies, you need to learn more about poker.

I agree that the smallest games have the tendencies you describe, as compared to the next step up. I disagree that this is a problem. You don't make most of your money from stacking weak/tight, you make money from raise/c-betting them to death, and giving up when you're beat, which is easy to know when they practically show you their cards. And as they start to adjust to that strategy, voila, now you can stack them.
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:57 PM   #7385
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
I somehow managed to book a winning May despite going on a $3600 downswing during the month. I have no clue how, but the numbers don't lie.
Nice job on winning overall for the month despite having a brutal downswing within the month.
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Old 06-11-2014, 12:32 AM   #7386
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

finally about to receive a 10kish deposit to my bank from fulltilt within the next week (I was 2nd wave of payments)

obvious play is to take shots @ 5/10

going to vegas from mid June-early July.... which casino(s) theoretically should be the softest during this timeframe for 5/10?

thx
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Old 06-11-2014, 09:28 AM   #7387
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Originally Posted by timmay28 View Post
finally about to receive a 10kish deposit to my bank from fulltilt within the next week (I was 2nd wave of payments)

obvious play is to take shots @ 5/10

going to vegas from mid June-early July.... which casino(s) theoretically should be the softest during this timeframe for 5/10?

thx
Bellagio 5T
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Old 06-11-2014, 01:40 PM   #7388
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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
so how the **** am I break-even at 1/2 and 1/3 but winning 11bb/hr at 2/5 since I started playing live poker?

I am sure this is the biggest culprit. But even doing dumb **** once in a while shouldn't take me from being a decent winner to being break-even? I am sure variance is playing a roll... but I really don't get into many big pots at 1/2. If I stack someone, they're usually short-stacked... otherwise I'm just getting 1 street of value a lot and they fold the turn or they fold to a flop c-bet. People at 1/2 aren't stacking off for 100bb as lightly as they seem to do at 2/5.
A bunch of us have periodically pointed out your fps in your pg&c. You sometimes get away from the fps, but apparently go back to it?

fwiw, my results are almost entirely a function of how fps/spewy I am during a given time period. Almost every losing session I can attribute to being too splashy/spewy. That's probably true for a lot of us. So yes doing dumb **** DOES lead to a reduction in wr, and when win rates are sensitive, as they are when hours aren't large, it could make wr=0.
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Old 06-12-2014, 05:09 AM   #7389
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
FPS likely bro.

You are better than a lot of them. You know that you are better than them. So, you might do fancy stuff (like 3betting with ATC which happens to be T2o I seem to recall) to get them to fold or call.

Just because we can think on level 3 and 4 doesn't mean that they even understand what level 0 is. Just remember that.
This is the biggest leak I had. Not FPS, but assuming unknown players were decent players. I would make some really terrible calls thinking "he didn't chase the gut-shot to the river with a flush out there".

I have a decent WR at the 5/5 $500 here in LA. But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds. Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high-variance game. I actually prefer to play a $300 buyin game, but there aren't any soft ones where it's 100BB.
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Old 06-12-2014, 12:45 PM   #7390
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Originally Posted by charlie310 View Post
This is the biggest leak I had. Not FPS, but assuming unknown players were decent players. I would make some really terrible calls thinking "he didn't chase the gut-shot to the river with a flush out there".

I have a decent WR at the 5/5 $500 here in LA. But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds. Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high-variance game. I actually prefer to play a $300 buyin game, but there aren't any soft ones where it's 100BB.
Really? LATB a few weeks ago had a 2/3 game, $300 max buyin. Seemed pretty passive/soft.
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Old 06-12-2014, 07:31 PM   #7391
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But, my WR at 3-5 & 2-3 is atrocious. Anyone who says these games are super-soft is out of their minds.
False

Quote:
Having a buyin of 33-60bb with horrible players makes it an extremely high variance
True
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Old 06-13-2014, 03:30 AM   #7392
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False



True
When you get 6 people calling your 12xBB PFR when you have a top 10 starting hand in late position, you're likely going to lose. Worst yet, with that many people calling, you're 2 options at flop is AI or fold. Even worse yet, the flop is likely going to contain a flush/strait draw which 1 to 3 Vs will chase until the river.

I guess your definition of "soft" is different than mine. Being able to buyin only 33BB is definitely not a "soft" game to me. It just gives the fish a massive advantage and it really limits my play to PF & flop.
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Old 06-13-2014, 03:40 AM   #7393
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Go where they respect your raises then.
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Old 06-13-2014, 03:48 AM   #7394
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Would absolutely love to be in games where my raises get six callers lol
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:10 AM   #7395
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When you get 6 people calling your 12xBB PFR
You can raise 20BB and get HU.
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:18 AM   #7396
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Would absolutely love to be in games where my raises get six callers lol
Cliche. Obviously, you want to be deep in these games, not 33BBs. Also, I think optimal is 1 to 3 callers PF, not 6. LOL. You do realize even with AA, you're going to lose the hand like 4 out of 5 times against that many players. I don't think anyone who knows stats likes having 1/3 of your stack in PF with any hand against that many people.
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:26 AM   #7397
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Cliche. Obviously, you want to be deep in these games, not 33BBs. Also, I think optimal is 1 to 3 callers PF, not 6. LOL. You do realize even with AA, you're going to lose the hand like 4 out of 5 times against that many players. I don't think anyone who knows stats likes having 1/3 of your stack in PF with any hand against that many people.
Pot odds though

Its not about AA even though you're still making a profit if you get 6 callers with that hand. Its when you call a raise, 5 other people follow you and you flop a set
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:28 AM   #7398
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You can raise 20BB and get HU.
I agree. That's more than half your stack, btw, so might as well go allin.

Back to my point: the short-stack 33BB games are not "super-soft". Some regulars I talk to say those games are unbeatable (mostly due to the ridiculous rake). My WR is much higher & variance is much lower in the higher games (100BB).
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:30 AM   #7399
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^ Ok. I thought you meant they weren't soft because of the player pool. You mean they're not soft because the no matter how bad the player pool is, the structure makes it's impossible for it to be soft, the structure is taking the skill out of the game. Makes sense now. It's LA though? There isn't a 100BB game nearby?
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Old 06-13-2014, 05:42 AM   #7400
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Pot odds though

Its not about AA even though you're still making a profit if you get 6 callers with that hand. Its when you call a raise, 5 other people follow you and you flop a set
Now we're going way off topic. I posted that my WR is higher in a 100BB game vs a 33BB game, which should be no surprise.

2nd, set-mining in a 33BB game is obviously -EV like 99% of the time.

3rd, don't be so certain until you've played at least 500 hrs. Trust me, a table of 8 fishing donkeys is most likely not going to be the best table unless you're running like god.
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