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Old 06-09-2014, 06:02 PM   #7351
iraisetoomuch
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Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1 (and I don't believe Chippy has updated his PGC thread since turning pro)

Losing $4K+ at 1/3NL- (I'm assuming no 2/5 mixed in there?) seems more than run bad to me (although that may be cuz I'm a fish-on-a-heater-who-has-never-experienced-a-500bb-downswing).

GcluelessNLnoobG
And you're also a world class nit.
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Old 06-09-2014, 06:11 PM   #7352
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
And you're also a world class nit.
Compliment appreciated!

But seriously, I don't know exactly what sorta downswing Chippy is on (especially regarding stakes), but ex. a $4K one at 1/3 NL is 13BIs, which seems a little towards the unlikely side of things for a winning player. Might also be a function of all of a sudden putting in way more hours, and the added pressure of this now being his sole source of income, all of which I'm sure could screw with him mentally.

GbutIcouldbewrongG
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Old 06-09-2014, 09:46 PM   #7353
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Currently playing "professionally" & recently got my BR up to 15k and decided to start taking shots @ 5/10 $500-$1000, instead of my normal 2/3 1-300 game.

Played 8 short (28hrs total) winning sessions and was +4.5k (18k roll) and had my first (and biggest ever) loosing session a few days ago which was -2.3k.

I feel like I could beat the game but I think I should wait until I get my roll up to around 18-20k before I go back to taking any shots @ 5/10.

Thoughts? Suggestions?
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Old 06-09-2014, 10:14 PM   #7354
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Hey guys, I've been sitting around with 35+ BI in my safe at home to grind 1/2 fulltime and I was thinking of keeping some of this cash in the stock market or other investments.

To my other full time grinders; Do you guys keep that much cash sitting around?

I feel like I could be putting a % of my bankroll to work for me instead of sitting around in my safe instead of being lazy.
One reason I can understand for keeping bills around is because no one (the IRS) would be able to see it. Having your bank deposits on record in order to earn a nickel in interest over the year might not be worth it to some people. Not that I do this.

I also don't think investments are a great idea until you have a ton saved. If you might need the cash you put into the stock market in a few months, that's like guaranteeing you can make a profit in one six-hour session. The market, or other investments, are crapshoots unless you can afford to not need the money you're investing for years. Even if there's a stock you think is solid, what's 4-6 months going to do? Put in 15 buyins = $4500, Google year-to-date is up 0.65%, that's $29, minus probably $20 for the transaction fees to the brokerage house, leaving you with about $9. That's one specific example, not an EV for 6 months, but I don't think short term investments are worth it.
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Old 06-09-2014, 10:37 PM   #7355
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Quote:
Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
Hey guys, I've been sitting around with 35+ BI in my safe at home to grind 1/2 fulltime and I was thinking of keeping some of this cash in the stock market or other investments.

To my other full time grinders; Do you guys keep that much cash sitting around?

I feel like I could be putting a % of my bankroll to work for me instead of sitting around in my safe instead of being lazy.


Safety deposit box.
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Old 06-09-2014, 11:06 PM   #7356
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
+1 (and I don't believe Chippy has updated his PGC thread since turning pro)

Losing $4K+ at 1/3NL- (I'm assuming no 2/5 mixed in there?) seems more than run bad to me (although that may be cuz I'm a fish-on-a-heater-who-has-never-experienced-a-500bb-downswing).

GcluelessNLnoobG
Just seems impossible to never have had a 500bb downswing. I lost 420bb playing $1/2 yesterday in two hours just with a few coolers (QQ<AA, K9<A9 on 992 flop, flush over flush, trips against a boat in heads up pot, few three outer rivers, etc). Ended up with a 200bb win at end of day but that's a 620bb swing just in one 6 hour session. Doesn't matter how well you play, can't run like a champ forever. All of the best players I know seem to have a max of about 1000-1500bb downswing at some point depending on stakes/structure.
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Old 06-09-2014, 11:55 PM   #7357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Safety deposit box.
What would a safety deposit box accomplish that my safe doesn't?
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Old 06-09-2014, 11:57 PM   #7358
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What would a safety deposit box accomplish that my safe doesn't?
But thieves bro.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:06 AM   #7359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
But thieves bro.
But my safe is bolted into the floor, not to mention you need a key AND combination to get inside.

But first you have to beat the dogs.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:55 AM   #7360
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SammyZ View Post
Currently playing "professionally" & recently got my BR up to 15k and decided to start taking shots @ 5/10 $500-$1000, instead of my normal 2/3 1-300 game.

Played 8 short (28hrs total) winning sessions and was +4.5k (18k roll) and had my first (and biggest ever) loosing session a few days ago which was -2.3k.

I feel like I could beat the game but I think I should wait until I get my roll up to around 18-20k before I go back to taking any shots @ 5/10.

Thoughts? Suggestions?
If there is no limit between 2/3 and 5/10 I think you should be more conservative with taking shots.. at $18k I would be taking 200bb shots at 5/10 at the most and move down if drop below $15k. Its going to take a huge grind/run good to get back a standard loss (3-4k) in a 5/10 by playing 2/3.
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Old 06-10-2014, 08:47 AM   #7361
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Originally Posted by de4df1sh View Post
But my safe is bolted into the floor, not to mention you need a key AND combination to get inside.

But first you have to beat the dogs.
let me know the address.. but not until its over $15k
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Old 06-10-2014, 09:52 AM   #7362
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Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
Safety deposit box.
Safety deposit boxes can be seized by the Feds or frozen if you run into trouble. Plus it's not completely unheard of for people's safety deposit boxes to be robbed by unscrupulous bank employees.
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:04 AM   #7363
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ok, serious question even though it is a very fishy question:

I know the sample sizes are small, but like, why is there such an enormous difference here? Can I draw any conclusions? Is anything here relevant?

Total Stats at 1/2, 1/3, and 2/3: 168.75 hours, +$1.64/hr, -0.13 BB/hr

More specifically...

1/2: 36.95 hours, -$18.53/hr
1/3: 128.05 hours, +$5.46/hr

Total Stats at 2/5, 3/5, and 5/5: 212.81 hours, +$49.00/hr

LA 500 NL: 111.14 hours, +$112.23/hr
Other 500 NL: 101.67 hours, -$20.11/hr

edit: Even adding my 2013 stats... I am +1.51 BB/hr at 1/2 and 1/3 for 2013... which makes my total +0.86 bb/hr at 1/2 and 1/3 lifetime

At 2/5 lifetime (including an 18 hour sample of 2/5 in 2013), I am at $55.32/hr total

Idk... I feel like there is something to it? Maybe I just WANT to believe there is something to it? Or is the only thing to it that I ran really really well at 2/5 and ran poorly at 1/2 and 1/3 and in reality, it'll converge somewhere right in the middle long-term?

Last edited by Duke0424; 06-10-2014 at 11:22 AM.
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:23 AM   #7364
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

IR2M, I spoke to you in Vegas about how I felt 1/2 was like really irritating to me and at times I felt it was not even beatable. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the above although I'm pretty sure you'll say its just weird variance.
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:31 AM   #7365
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
IR2M, I spoke to you in Vegas about how I felt 1/2 was like really irritating to me and at times I felt it was not even beatable. I'd like to hear your thoughts on the above although I'm pretty sure you'll say its just weird variance.
you ran hot in LA
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:43 AM   #7366
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slim, are you saying that a 22.5 bb/hr winrate is in fact NOT sustainable?
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Old 06-10-2014, 11:49 AM   #7367
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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slim, are you saying that a 22.5 bb/hr winrate is in fact NOT sustainable?
I believe that is exactly what I am saying...so yes
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:02 PM   #7368
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duke. out of curiosity, what prompted you to move up to 2/5 when you weren't beating 1/2? did you feel you were a winning player who was just running poorly? did you feel the rake was prohibitive at 1/2?
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:14 PM   #7369
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duke. out of curiosity, what prompted you to move up to 2/5 when you weren't beating 1/2? did you feel you were a winning player who was just running poorly? did you feel the rake was prohibitive at 1/2?
I first moved up to 1/3 from 1/2 because the 1/2 games at my home casino were sometimes pretty bad and the 1/3 game was always very good. I was beating 1/3, but not for as much as I wanted to... however, I built my roll to like $10k playing 1/3 as I continued to get better and then took a shot at the LA 5/5 games because I got coaching from a notable LA-crusher and could feel myself improving very quickly.

So basically time line goes like this:

October I started playing live poker and taking poker seriously... played 1/2, lost a lot

November I started playing 1/3 because the games were a lot better and won at like $21/hr or something for the next three months. I got aggressive with 2/5 shots during this time too and made like $2.3k+ in 18 hours. after that, I had a bit of a downswing, moved to Vegas, and continued to play a mixture of 1/3 and 2/5 and did ok in both (like 6bb/hr).

So it was a combination of getting better at poker, doing like ok-ish at 1/3, and aggressively shot taking 2/5 and running really well/playing really well at 2/5. I never moved up to 2/5 without a good reason imo.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:15 PM   #7370
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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duke. out of curiosity, what prompted you to move up to 2/5 when you weren't beating 1/2? did you feel you were a winning player who was just running poorly? did you feel the rake was prohibitive at 1/2?
This is a very valid question.

Also, regarding 1/2 and beating it:

1/2 is beatable. It's a fact. Or I run like god for the last 600 hours. I know a number of people who beat 1/2. At all of our local casinos.

People are just so terrible. Period. They call with such crap hands all the time OOP, IP, and check/fold so much on the flop/turn it's just laughable.
Raise, cBet, win.

Yes, the rake sucks. But the players are so bad that it's still very beatable.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:19 PM   #7371
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
This is a very valid question.

Also, regarding 1/2 and beating it:

1/2 is beatable. It's a fact. Or I run like god for the last 600 hours. I know a number of people who beat 1/2. At all of our local casinos.

People are just so terrible. Period. They call with such crap hands all the time OOP, IP, and check/fold so much on the flop/turn it's just laughable.
Raise, cBet, win.

Yes, the rake sucks. But the players are so bad that it's still very beatable.
yeah, fwiw im not saying its not beatable although i bet its coming off that way. i just dont know what exactly im doing so wrong at 1/2. it seems really easy, every time i play in a 1/2 game there are 6-8 fish who are either loose/passive or weak/tight. but i just never win
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:20 PM   #7372
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Also, I'm not saying that you can't beat the game.
And I'm not saying that you win rate is accurate or not accurate.

But sample size bro..
Seriously..

If you have 200 hours at a game (say 1/2 for example) and if at any time during that 200 hour stretch you gii with AA vs KK for 150bb each and you lose your 80% hand, you lose a 300bb pot. That's a 600bb swing in your winrate. So, you now move your entire win rate for your sample by 3bb hour. That's insane.

So, you talk about your 2/5 win rates, and your 1/2 or 1/3 win rates. But try to think about any big hand you played at either of these levels, the good ones and the bad ones and think about how they could be affecting your win rates. That's another reason why it's important to get a bigger sample before trying to put too much stock into your specific numbers (as opposed to your general trending).
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:21 PM   #7373
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You'll likely ignore me since we aren't "friends" but maybe you are not nearly as good as you think you are (or at least thought you were). I'm not saying this definitively I am saying this is a possibility.

Not saying you didn't have reasons to shot take and that seems fine but perhaps you aren't/weren't ready. Tighten up some leaks, put in monster hours at 1/2 and 1/3, stop spewing, ABC it up, listen to others who have significantly more experience and results to back it up, proft, rinse and repeat.

Just because you have the roll for a certain level doesn't mean you are ready to beat that level.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:22 PM   #7374
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Quote:
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yeah, fwiw im not saying its not beatable although i bet its coming off that way. i just dont know what exactly im doing so wrong at 1/2. it seems really easy, every time i play in a 1/2 game there are 6-8 fish who are either loose/passive or weak/tight. but i just never win
FPS likely bro.

You are better than a lot of them. You know that you are better than them. So, you might do fancy stuff (like 3betting with ATC which happens to be T2o I seem to recall) to get them to fold or call.

Just because we can think on level 3 and 4 doesn't mean that they even understand what level 0 is. Just remember that.
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Old 06-10-2014, 12:25 PM   #7375
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duke. out of curiosity, what prompted you to move up to 2/5 when you weren't beating 1/2? did you feel you were a winning player who was just running poorly? did you feel the rake was prohibitive at 1/2?
Seeking respect for his raises is obv
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