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Old 05-20-2014, 02:22 PM   #7226
GrindPokerAllDay
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

I'm taking the 15 minute drive for sure. If I later decide the games are too slow or the stacks too short then I''ll consider the other games but 15 minutes vs 1 hr is a big deal IMO.
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Old 05-20-2014, 02:23 PM   #7227
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

Facts + given assumptions:
1. The rakes are identical for all three.
2. We will always buy in at max.
3. All games are 9 handed.
4. Promotions/comps are relatively equal at each location.

Variables:
1. No automatic shuffler at option 1. That means seeing fewer hph, although that depends on dealer competence with other variables being equal across sites.
2. Drop can vary from $1/$2. Is it always static when we go, or does it change based upon time of day?
3. No flop/no drop vs. always drop.
4. Bankroll: Assuming we have sufficient for $1/$2, but unsure about $1/$3 and if that would play into our decision.
5. Length of sessions: Do we play for 2-3 hours or 6-10 hours? The longer we play, the less the drive is considered as lost play time.

It seems that the answer to this question is going to rely on you confirming whether or not the drops occur with no flop and the schedule for drop amounts. If every location always drops $2 and only drops with a flop, then they are relatively equal.

The other major variable is time lost to shuffling vs. drive time. The longer the session, the more a lack of shuffler is weighted.
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:03 PM   #7228
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica View Post
When I get ready to play a live session, I have three options, all of which 1 hour driving distance or less. Most of my poker career, I thought like an amateur, something like: "just pick one and hope for a good session". But I have evolved in my analysis of game selection (among many other aspects of my game), and now I know I can do better than that.

But how do I choose? I still feel like my selection is arbitrary. For the moment, I am a $1/$2 NL player, occasionally $2/$5 NL. Let's also assume that all poker rooms have the normal distribution of fish, regs etc so they are all equally beatable (based solely on the skill level variable).

Option 1
15 minute drive
$1/$2 runs anywhere from 4-7 tables most of the time
min buy-in $60, max buy-in $200
rake = 10% up to $5 + $1 or $2 for BBJ/promotions (no flop, no drop, but only 80% sure)
no automatic card shuffler

Option 2
1 hour drive
$1/$2 runs anywhere from 6-12 tables most of the time
min buy-in $60, max buy-in $300
rake = 10% up to $5 + $1 or $2 for BBJ/promotions (there's a drop even preflop)
has an automatic shuffler

Option 3
1 hour drive
no $1/$2, it's $1/$3, runs anywhere from 4-8 tables most of the time
min buy-in $100, max buy-in $300
rake = 10% up to $5 + $1 or $2 for BBJ/promotions (I don't know if drop occurs preflop or not)
has an automatic shuffler

I'm curious as to feedback on this. Thanks.
I'd go option 1. Definitely not 2. No flop no drop is a big gain. If 3 is no flop no drop its taken into consideration. without doing the math though my guess is that if you do 6 hour sessions or less option 1 is going to be the best game after expenses (assuming your winrate will be equal at all of the above: which assumes players are of equal skill)
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Old 05-20-2014, 04:37 PM   #7229
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Can't you make an arguent for factoring in travel time to the winrate? You essentially get an extra 90 minutes at the table from the same total time commitment with option one. Depending on winrate, that's a lot of money

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Old 05-20-2014, 08:03 PM   #7230
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If we think that we will make roughly the same BB / hour at 1/2 that we will at 1/3 then going to play 1/3 is almost always better.

Even if we assume that we will win less per hour, but that we are still a decent winner, then 1/3 is better.

Assume a natural win rate of $20 / hour at 1/2 which equiates to ~$10/hour after rake.
At 1/3 that win rate would be $30/hour. Then assume a skill increase and therefor a profit decrease of 25%, so we're down to $22.5/hour - rake $12.5/hour. So, we are making $2.5/hour more at 1/3 then 1/2. So, if we lose 90 minutes of drive time, we are losing $15 ($10/hour * 1.5 hours) so we need to be playing 6 hours to make up for that lost cost.

But the better the player we are say a natural win rate of $26/hour - $10/hour rake (8bb/hour is pretty reasonable win rate post rake) then we are making $16/hour.
Same $26/hour * 1.5 = $39/hour at 1/3 - 25% skill factor = $29.75/hour - rake = $19.75. So we are making $3.75 more per hour, so we only need to play 4.25 hours to make up for the loss in travel time.

If you are marginal player, go play 1/2. You will not recoup the playing time that you lose from driving. If you are pretty good player then go play 1/3 on your longer sessions, and 1/2 on your shorter sessions.

If you are a very good player, you should certainly go play 1/3 almost all of the time unles you are playing less than 3 hours at the table.

Also, I think that assuming that 1/3 players are that much better than 1/2 players is pretty false. They are just as likely to be good or bad. And that makes the 1/3 option even more attractive, even for short sessions.
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Old 05-21-2014, 01:14 AM   #7231
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Cost to drive 2 hrs a session are not insignificant either (ie gas prices).
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Old 05-21-2014, 02:56 AM   #7232
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Always play at the place closest in driving distance. Being able to quit early and go home or go somewhere else when things aren't going well is a huge advantage. You're also not instantly down gas money and time like you would be driving a far distance. Chances are the quality of game does not outweigh the driving distance.
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Old 05-21-2014, 01:42 PM   #7233
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

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Originally Posted by GrindPokerAllDay View Post
I'm taking the 15 minute drive for sure. If I later decide the games are too slow or the stacks too short then I''ll consider the other games but 15 minutes vs 1 hr is a big deal IMO.
Perhaps I need to get out of the habit of my "either/or" thinking. So often, I feel like I must commit to one room or another in a given day.

GrindPoker, are you driving the 15 minutes 100% of the time? Then if the game sucks, drive the other 45 minutes to one of your other options? Is that what you meant?
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Old 05-21-2014, 01:53 PM   #7234
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Assume a natural win rate of $20 / hour at 1/2 which equiates to ~$10/hour after rake.
At 1/3 that win rate would be $30/hour. Then assume a skill increase and therefor a profit decrease of 25%, so we're down to $22.5/hour - rake $12.5/hour. So, we are making $2.5/hour more at 1/3 then 1/2. So, if we lose 90 minutes of drive time, we are losing $15 ($10/hour * 1.5 hours) so we need to be playing 6 hours to make up for that lost cost.

But the better the player we are say a natural win rate of $26/hour - $10/hour rake (8bb/hour is pretty reasonable win rate post rake) then we are making $16/hour.
Same $26/hour * 1.5 = $39/hour at 1/3 - 25% skill factor = $29.75/hour - rake = $19.75. So we are making $3.75 more per hour, so we only need to play 4.25 hours to make up for the loss in travel time.
I consider myself fairly good at math, but for some reason your subtractions of rake-per-hour are going over my head. Pardon me, but how did you come to the calculation of "minus $10/hour"?
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Old 05-21-2014, 02:07 PM   #7235
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica View Post
Perhaps I need to get out of the habit of my "either/or" thinking. So often, I feel like I must commit to one room or another in a given day.

GrindPoker, are you driving the 15 minutes 100% of the time? Then if the game sucks, drive the other 45 minutes to one of your other options? Is that what you meant?
I was just speaking in general, if the games are good at the casino 15 minutes away then that's where I'm playing. However, I like that plan if the casino is on the way to the other ones.
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Old 05-21-2014, 02:14 PM   #7236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica View Post
I consider myself fairly good at math, but for some reason your subtractions of rake-per-hour are going over my head. Pardon me, but how did you come to the calculation of "minus $10/hour"?
From talking to floor people / dealers at the casinos I frequent. They average ~$95 per hour in rake + bbj drop at a 10% $4+2bbj game. So a 5+1 would actually average slightly less; but i default to $100/hour for most basic calculations.

And at a 10 handed table, people pay an average of $10/hour in rake.
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Old 05-21-2014, 02:16 PM   #7237
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica View Post
I consider myself fairly good at math, but for some reason your subtractions of rake-per-hour are going over my head. Pardon me, but how did you come to the calculation of "minus $10/hour"?
I'm assuming that he guesstimated it (or new it to be standard). If there are 25 hands dealt an hour and each hand is max raked $6 (5+1) then tables are earning $150/hr in rake Divide that by the 9 players and each player would be paying an average of $16.67. Obviously not all hands are max-raked so his number makes sense to me even though I don't understand how it was derived.
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Old 05-21-2014, 09:26 PM   #7238
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Hey guys I just stayed playing live and realized where I play the rake is max 5 and a jackpot of 2!

Is the double jack pot dropgoing to make the games unbeatable long term @ 1/2?


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Old 05-21-2014, 09:27 PM   #7239
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Zy_69_yZ View Post
Hey guys I just stayed playing live and realized where I play the rake is max 5 and a jackpot of 2!

Is the double jack pot dropgoing to make the games unbeatable long term @ 1/2?


Zy

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Define beatable.
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Old 05-21-2014, 09:41 PM   #7240
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Define beatable.
I would think beatable would be at least 10 an hour.

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Old 05-21-2014, 09:44 PM   #7241
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Zy_69_yZ View Post
Hey guys I just stayed playing live and realized where I play the rake is max 5 and a jackpot of 2!

Is the double jack pot dropgoing to make the games unbeatable long term @ 1/2?


Zy

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100% beatable.

A solid player in the game should notice only a small drop in their win rate.
1/2 - 1 bb / hour at the most I'd say.
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Old 05-21-2014, 09:51 PM   #7242
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Ah OK perfect. Idk why 1$ seemed like so much to me. Probably because I play 50nl online lol.


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Old 05-21-2014, 11:26 PM   #7243
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Promo drop shouldn't diminish winrate, assuming the money is returned to cg players in the form of high hands, bbj, splash pots etc. Some places use promo drop to cover tournament guarantees so in that case it would affect the winrates of cg players.

Some venues run better promos during certain hrs so you should be aware of that too.

Last edited by pure_aggression; 05-21-2014 at 11:51 PM.
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Old 05-21-2014, 11:36 PM   #7244
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by pure_aggression View Post
Promo drop shouldn't diminish winrate, assuming the money is returned to cg players in the form of high hands, bbj, splash pots etc. Some places use promo drop to cover tournament guarantees so in that case it would affect the winratss of cg players.

Some venues run better promos during certain hrs so you should be aware of that too.
Accurate.

As long as 100% is returned to players at a mostly even distribution.
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Old 05-21-2014, 11:57 PM   #7245
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by pure_aggression View Post
Promo drop shouldn't diminish winrate, assuming the money is returned to cg players in the form of high hands, bbj, splash pots etc. Some places use promo drop to cover tournament guarantees so in that case it would affect the winrates of cg players.

Some venues run better promos during certain hrs so you should be aware of that too.
That's a huge assumption. At the casino I play at they say the drop is for the BBJ but the amount that goes to the BBJ is likely 10 to 20%.
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Old 05-21-2014, 11:57 PM   #7246
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Old 05-22-2014, 12:17 AM   #7247
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Quote:
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That's a huge assumption. At the casino I play at they say the drop is for the BBJ but the amount that goes to the BBJ is likely 10 to 20%.
Well I guess every place is different, I am pretty sure there are regulations in NV that promo drop must be returned to the players in one fashion or another.
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Old 05-22-2014, 12:44 AM   #7248
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Re: poker room selection based on location/rake, how to decide?

Quote:
Originally Posted by filimaica View Post
When I get ready to play a live session, I have three options, all of which 1 hour driving distance or less. Most of my poker career, I thought like an amateur, something like: "just pick one and hope for a good session". But I have evolved in my analysis of game selection (among many other aspects of my game), and now I know I can do better than that.

But how do I choose? I still feel like my selection is arbitrary. For the moment, I am a $1/$2 NL player, occasionally $2/$5 NL. Let's also assume that all poker rooms have the normal distribution of fish, regs etc so they are all equally beatable (based solely on the skill level variable).
.
I've had a similar dilemma as well. I have found that if I go to the 15 minute game, it is super beneficial for booking my wins. When I drive an hour I feel like i need to stay for probably way longer than I should. I play optimally for 5 hours on most nights, when faced with an hour drive home I generally exceed that.
Another factor for me is that i know every player now at the game close to my house. I have so much info on all of them. It also makes the time much more enjoyable. I reserve the hour drive now for when I would like to play higher.
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Old 05-25-2014, 05:30 PM   #7249
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I have a similar what game should i play situation as ZY...

My background is similar. I was a full time pro prior to Black Friday. Played mostly SSNL with some success at MSNL....

Flash foward to the present and i now have 4k worth of full tilt monies to play with. Im no longer a pro ldo and havent played much these past few years but i assume I still have fundamentals to win at a good clip live.

Assuming 4k bankroll. Im a student with a 26 per hour week job that covers my expenses. Not like this money is life changing but it would be disapponting to bust it... I wont have much time to play. Probably 20 hours week max, often 4-5 hour blocks at a time...occassionally longer on some weekends...

What game(s) are you playing?

Option 1) 1/2 NL (with $2 mandatory straddle on BTN, effectively a 3 blind game) 60-200 max. 5+2 rake. 15 minute drive. Solid game selection. Plenty of tables to choose from.

Option 2) 2/5 NL, 200-500 max. 5+2 rake. 15 minute drive. 2-3 tables on average.

Option 3) 1/2 NL 60-300 max. 5+2 rake. 45 minute drive. Solid game selection. Plenty of tables to choose from

Option 4) 2/5 NL 200-500 max. 5+2 rake. 45 minute drive. Soild game selection. 4-6 tables on average.

Option 5) 2/5 NL. 300-1000 max. 5+2 rake. 45 minute drive. Usually just 1-2 tables.

Option 6)1/2 NL 100-300 max. 5+2 rake. 1 hour drive. Lots of tables. Great game selection.

Option 7) 2-5 NL 200-600 max. 5+2 rake. 1 hour drive. Good game selection. Lots of weekend action.

Preciate the input
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Old 05-25-2014, 05:50 PM   #7250
Duvdar
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Hey All

I play 2/5 Live at a place that has a minimum $200 maximum $500. Long story short I started playing it for part time income while earning the rest of my income in another part time job.

I am rolling with $10,000 which is 20 buy ins. Since I play live I do not have graphs but I have always done fairly well. Do you feel 20 buy ins is still the right bench mark or should I shoot for more and if so how much more? Also when you are running bad how many buy ins do you need to drop before you would move down to 1/2?

Thanks in advance.
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