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 05-26-2011, 11:45 PM #701 AKQJ10 Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Jun 2004 Location: Who am I? How did I get here? Posts: 12,955 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances OK, thanks. I guess what i'm really trying to do is estimate the probability of x downswing or upswing. But in the bankroll calculators that i use, the denominator is something like per 100 hands. It shouldn't matter whether it's 100 hands or an hour, as long as i keep it consistent. However, it seems like if i use (2 hours) as the denominator instead of hours, my winrate numerator will of course double. I'm too sleepy to think straight about whether my SD needs to double too to produce the same RoR.
 05-27-2011, 12:46 AM #702 chzbrglr old hand   Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,456 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I just take the result of every session and find the average profit per hour of each session to use when calculating my standard deviation
 05-27-2011, 01:10 AM #703 mofliedlice old hand   Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,610 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances I don't know how to jump into this thread......but for those worrying about standard deviation and what not should be buying Poker Journal where it's kept track of for you. As far as the discussion....Don't know where to jump in at this point....
05-27-2011, 01:35 AM   #704
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 OK, thanks. I guess what i'm really trying to do is estimate the probability of x downswing or upswing. But in the bankroll calculators that i use, the denominator is something like per 100 hands. It shouldn't matter whether it's 100 hands or an hour, as long as i keep it consistent. However, it seems like if i use (2 hours) as the denominator instead of hours, my winrate numerator will of course double. I'm too sleepy to think straight about whether my SD needs to double too to produce the same RoR.
no.. TO produce a constant ror for a given bankroll your winrate has to double at the same rate as the square of your sd doubles

b/ln(r)=-(σ^2/2µ)

Last edited by AEPpoker; 05-27-2011 at 01:56 AM.

 05-27-2011, 02:49 AM #705 AEPpoker banned     Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: the banks of the rubicon Posts: 3,248 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances hm so maybe we can estimate it if y is the period multiplier (ie so if were going to double the period y is 2 if were going to triple it y=3 etc) and X is the new standard deviation and σ is the old standard deviation could we say x^2=y*σ ^2 so x=sqrt(yσ ^2) so if were going to double the period the new sd is x^2=2*σ ^2 x=root(2*σ ^2) so if our std dev was 10bb/100 iif we changed the period to bb/200 it would be sqrt(2*10*10)=sqrt 200 = 14.12? yesnomaybe? EDIT: OK, this is what i get for drinking too much coffee its actually a lot simpler than this. If x is the period, and we want to increase it by y, we just increase the sd by y^2. So if the sd is 10bb/100 its 10*sqrt(2)/100*2=14.12 the effect of this is that the period has to double twice for the SD to double once. Last edited by AEPpoker; 05-27-2011 at 03:18 AM.
 05-27-2011, 06:40 PM #706 BAEVentures veteran     Join Date: May 2010 Location: Grind on da mind Posts: 2,963 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Gave an update in here back in November of the live hours I had tracked of my play. Figured it's been about 7 months and I'd throw out another update. I didn't play at all live from January through April as I was laid off from work and decided to take the online grind route instead. I have since returned to the live scene, am strictly playing \$2/5 NL with the occasional donkament added in. Stats for \$1/2 and \$1/3 NL (\$200 and \$300 max respectively). The large majority of these hours were played in the evenings during the week, at either Harrah's St. Louis or Lumiere Casino in St. Louis. The rake at both of these establishments is 10% up to \$4 and an additional \$1 for the BBJ. No rake nor BBJ is dropped unless the hand sees a flop. I must admit, that my game was not finely tuned for the majority of these sessions, additionally, I was still struggling with some tilt issues. 33 sessions 189 hours played \$1,156 profit \$6.11 / hour 3bb/hour 9bb/100 My live results for \$2/5 NLHE (\$300-500 max) are quite a different story. Locations for \$1/2/5 and \$2/5 were a mix of Harrah's St. Louis, once again when I still had some major leaks and minor tilt problems in my game. More recently the Horseshoe casino in Hammond, IN (10% up to \$5 and \$1 BBJ), Hollywood Casino in Aurora, IL (10% up to \$8 and \$1 BBJ), Grand Victoria Casino in Elgin, IL (10% up to \$8, pre-flop rake as well, no BBJ). Lastly, Rockford Charitable Games and Chicago Charitable Games (10% up to \$5, no BBJ). 28 sessions 179 hours played \$12,997 profit \$72.61 / hour 14 bb/hour 42 bb/100 Let me conclude this by saying that I don't believe \$72/hr to be sustainable in the \$2/5 games I am playing. They are ridiculously soft, I do table select, and feel that I am one of the best players in this player pool, however, that being said, despite not running "above EV" over my last ~150 hours, I have not had many coolers, nor coolered a large number of other individuals. I look forward to updating again at the end of the year when my \$2/5 play has reached 800-1000 hours and I have a realistic idea of my achievable WR in these games (estimated @ \$40-50/hour). There are good reasons I play so many different locations, much has to do with the location of the charitable, the time of the day, the day of the week, certain casinos get games running on certain days that play better than others, etc. Disclaimer: None of this information includes my travel expenses, time waiting for a table, travel time, food, beverages, etc. My profit stated is post tips/rake though obv. I tip \$1 per winning hand in pots over \$30, and \$2 per winning hand in pots over \$500. Seriously, though, looking forward to updating at the 1000 hour mark.
 05-27-2011, 07:05 PM #707 mofliedlice old hand   Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,610 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Anyone got any stats on amount they've tipped this year? Since I got Poker Journal I been tracking it just because it's there. This year in 118 sessions and 433 hours at 1/3 I've tipped \$1,007.
 05-27-2011, 07:06 PM #708 quesuerte Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Barcelona Posts: 4,335 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances ^^^ Congrats.
 06-02-2011, 12:59 PM #709 LolPony Pooh-Bah     Join Date: Feb 2010 Location: @DeTalores Posts: 4,124 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Yeah, Poker Journal has made me realize how much I was tipping. I'm doing it a lot less frequently now :S. I started with a 2k roll with the intentions of reevaluating if I went bust and had another 2k if I deemed worthy to play more 1/2nl. I had a stop-loss of 600 so only carried that with me to the casino. First day I went I won like 100 and then I ran reallllllly bad and lost the 600 the second day. Was very demoralizing. Then the third day I won ~750 and got my confidence back. Since then I've played 93 hours at 32.6/hr. I just start out real tight until I get reads on the table and decide who I want to get in big pots with. Then I LAG it up pretty hard. Raising any playable hand in LP and attacking the straddles relentlessly. I almost always ask for the seat change button right when I get to the table haha, and if I recognize a table with droolers I'll ask for a table change. Is the consensus that 2/5 is almost no different than 1/2 except there might be one decent player instead of none? Just a matter of BR requirements?
06-02-2011, 01:04 PM   #710
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LolPony Is the consensus that 2/5 is almost no different than 1/2 except there might be one decent player instead of none? Just a matter of BR requirements?
Not ime.

It varies from game to game, but generally i would say most of your profit in a typical 1-2 game comes from calling stations who c/c 3 streets of value with marginal hands/draws.

In a typical 2-5 game, there will be ppl like this, though they wont be nearly as common. Most of your money in a typical 2/5 game will come from bad LAGs who bluff in bad/obvious spots and have value ranges that are way too wide

06-02-2011, 04:07 PM   #711
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by BAEVentures 28 sessions 179 hours played \$12,997 profit \$72.61 / hour 14 bb/hour 42 bb/100
I'm having similar results since my return to live poker following Black Friday. Live NL is actually relatively new to my area because previously they had a \$200 max bet.
I'm also looking forward to getting in 500-1000 hours to see where I'm at though it's going to take me a while because I have a full time job and I have little interest in spending more time at the casino than I already do.

 06-02-2011, 05:21 PM #712 yodachoda veteran   Join Date: Mar 2010 Location: Chicago IL suburbs Posts: 2,936 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Hey guys. My results have deteriorated further. I'm at ~230 hours, \$5/hour. Over the last 30 hours or so, I've lost \$175. Poker is tough because its hard to tell if you're unlucky or not playing optimally. I'm questioning whether it's best to just play the same way that villains whom I lose to play, super freakin nitty. I feel I'm just not lucky enough to play super freakin nitty. I just cant rely on sets + to win because it's not uncommon I go entire days without even making a set or better. These supernits flop sets and straights like its nothing, and that just doesn't happen to me. I'm pushing small edges constantly, pushing all in for a \$500 pot if I think it's +EV by a few bucks. I think I just need a much larger sample size to determine whether I'm playing bad or unlucky. Luckily my semester ends soon so I'll have some time to hit the felt. I haven't played poker in a few weeks now...
06-02-2011, 05:33 PM   #713
LolPony
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by yodachoda I'm pushing small edges constantly, pushing all in for a \$500 pot if I think it's +EV by a few bucks.
I don't think this is really necessary. I'm assuming you're playing 1/2. Which means it's pretty easy to get a huge edge over 99.9% of 1/2 live players. Why get stuck in huge pots where your ev is only a few dollars, when there are so many other spots to crush them?

I'm not saying don't do +ev plays, because obv if they're +ev it's a good play, but when All it will do is increase your variance though and to me that doesnt really sound worth the few extra dollars. Pick better spots!

Also \$175 in 30 hours doesnt sound bad at all? A lot of my 5-8 hour sessions I win/lose >400.

 06-02-2011, 06:30 PM #714 joos grinder     Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 453 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Whats best tracking for android that you guys are using?
06-02-2011, 06:49 PM   #715
yodachoda
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LolPony I don't think this is really necessary. I'm assuming you're playing 1/2. Which means it's pretty easy to get a huge edge over 99.9% of 1/2 live players. Why get stuck in huge pots where your ev is only a few dollars, when there are so many other spots to crush them? I'm not saying don't do +ev plays, because obv if they're +ev it's a good play, but when All it will do is increase your variance though and to me that doesnt really sound worth the few extra dollars. Pick better spots! Also \$175 in 30 hours doesnt sound bad at all? A lot of my 5-8 hour sessions I win/lose >400.
Because +EV is plus EV, whether its \$5 or \$50. I like to look at poker as a game where passing up on +EV situations is the same thing as lighting money on fire. It's just as bad as making bad calls. And I never forget poker is alot of luck and gambling.

Also, there are two more benefits of not passing on marginally +EV situations:

1. Gives you an action image, more likely to get paid off later, and villains are less likely to bluff you later.

2. It's fun! Folding is boring...Also I find it keeps me more mentally alert, I tend to get tired mentally if I go hours folding and folding.

06-02-2011, 08:02 PM   #716
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by yodachoda Because +EV is plus EV,
No, its not. Because when you push what you perceive to be miniscule edges even small errors in ranging your opponents are magnified many times over. Because we are frequently pushing a perceived advantage rather than a perceived disadvantage in spots like this, our ranging errors are also magnified in only one direction.

Now you might say, "OK, i just wont make any errors" but it doesnt work like that. Your estimation of your opponents range is an estimation.

Quote:
 1. Gives you an action image, more likely to get paid off later, and villains are less likely to bluff you later.
At the level youre playing, you dont need image to get action.
Quote:
 2. It's fun! Folding is boring...Also I find it keeps me more mentally alert, I tend to get tired mentally if I go hours folding and folding.
You mean the scintillating company doesnt keep you occupied and entertained?

06-02-2011, 08:37 PM   #717
72winner

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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by LolPony I had a stop-loss of 600 so only carried that with me to the casino.
Curious folks' thoughts on stop loss. Sounds good to me in theory but then I have days like yesterday. 1/3, I keep buying in until I'm \$1250 in, with \$350 left on the table. An hour later I go up and I cash out \$2350. (yes, it's deep for 1/3)

If you buy in \$300 it's not long until you are in \$900.

I often start a session kind of stupid and dump a bi the first orbit or two, then get paid off when I hit good hands.

Also curious on BR requirements. I'm a pretty high variance player. Mostly 1/2 but starting to play more 2/5 which suits my style better.

So how much would folks recommend I BR?

I have \$5k set up for it, which seems like an ungodly amount of money. It's 50 bi at \$100.

But this Spring I hit a downswing over \$5k (was up \$2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on \$3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +\$2400 to - \$3000.

I'm getting close to being positive again but that was a big swing...

I'm wanting to buy in deeper in general (\$300) but am wondering how many bi I need relative to my old \$100 bi.

I need to work on my game (I make really brilliant plays, then really stupid plays, also play when exhausted, pissed off, underrolled, etc.) I know.

But I just want to have a sense now of what BR I should realistically be looking at if I'm doing \$300 bi in general (assuming I plug my leaks OK).

Thx

 06-02-2011, 08:38 PM #718 poke4fun veteran     Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 3,191 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Speaking of tips...why is it that we get ~\$1 an hour in comps while dealers easily get 10 - 20x that in an hour? Not to mention that we pay for outrageous rakes... Sigh...I just have to pretend that I don't notice these kind of things if I want to keep playing in B&M.
06-02-2011, 08:40 PM   #719
poke4fun
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 72winner Curious folks' thoughts on stop loss. Sounds good to me in theory but then I have days like yesterday. 1/3, I keep buying in until I'm \$1250 in, with \$350 left on the table. An hour later I go up and I cash out \$2350. (yes, it's deep for 1/3) If you buy in \$300 it's not long until you are in \$900. I often start a session kind of stupid and dump a bi the first orbit or two, then get paid off when I hit good hands. Also curious on BR requirements. I'm a pretty high variance player. Mostly 1/2 but starting to play more 2/5 which suits my style better. So how much would folks recommend I BR? I have \$5k set up for it, which seems like an ungodly amount of money. It's 50 bi at \$100. But this Spring I hit a downswing over \$5k (was up \$2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on \$3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +\$2400 to - \$3000. I'm getting close to being positive again but that was a big swing... I'm wanting to buy in deeper in general (\$300) but am wondering how many bi I need relative to my old \$100 bi. I need to work on my game (I make really brilliant plays, then really stupid plays, also play when exhausted, pissed off, underrolled, etc.) I know. But I just want to have a sense now of what BR I should realistically be looking at if I'm doing \$300 bi in general (assuming I plug my leaks OK). Thx
Looking at my PokerJournal stats, I can tell you that my winning sessions are mostly off 1 or 2 buy-ins, and my losing sessions can go anywhere between 2 to...sigh.

So if you're in deep, chances are you will only dig deeper.

 06-02-2011, 11:06 PM #720 waar journeyman     Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: Philadelphia Posts: 375 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances With Poker Journal how do you make it so your graph starts off at zero? If you enter your first session as a winning session then it starts your graph at the amount you won...
06-02-2011, 11:36 PM   #721
AKQJ10
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by 72winner So how much would folks recommend I BR?

I am and will continue to be a broken record about this until it's so ingrained in the culture here that people don't even consider asking for BR with estimating WR. (Risk of ruin too, for that matter, but 1% is a standard assumption for risk tolerance.)

Distance = rate * time, so how far you can drive if you go 100 km/h (or 60 mph, take your pick)? How should you play 98 after the flop? How big is a box?

 06-03-2011, 12:29 AM #722 72winner adept     Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Ohio Posts: 1,078 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Very right. The challenge is I'm just getting going so I don't have a good win rate established. Right now I'm pretty much break even but that includes some really stupid stuff (playing totally exhausted and spacey, on my D game, bluffing too much at calling stations, etc.) that I am getting away from. I crush the game some times and then do really stupid stuff when I'm tired/tilted. If I adjust for the really stupid stuff I wont do again and extreme bad luck (EG losing 3 consecutive entire night earnings with final turn shoves 90% 81% and 90% ahead) I'd estimate \$10/hr. But my variance is massive. I'll often be up \$100/hr from a session but will be down the next session. I mostly need to know how many bi I should have in the bank to where if I run through it I should pretty well know that it's me being bad, not bad luck. I feel like I've been running bad but difficult to tell. Flopping a queen high flush I usually try to get money in. When twice in a week someone FLOPS ace high flush at the SAME time as I flop queen high flush I feel like I'm unlucky. But I need some neutral metric to determine. (EG X# of hours, Y # of bi at risk). .
06-03-2011, 09:09 AM   #723
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AKQJ10 I am and will continue to be a broken record about this until it's so ingrained in the culture here that people don't even consider asking for BR with estimating WR. (Risk of ruin too, for that matter, but 1% is a standard assumption for risk tolerance.)
+1. this is universal on 2p2 -- even from people you would expect to know better.

06-03-2011, 09:12 AM   #724
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Quote:
 Originally Posted by 72winner But this Spring I hit a downswing over \$5k (was up \$2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on \$3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +\$2400 to - \$3000.
How deep are you buying in/playing?

06-03-2011, 09:24 AM   #725
72winner

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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by AEPpoker How deep are you buying in/playing?
\$300 typically now.

\$200-300 at 1/2 and \$400 at 2/5

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