Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 05-26-2011, 11:45 PM   #701
AKQJ10
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Who am I? How did I get here?
Posts: 12,955
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

OK, thanks. I guess what i'm really trying to do is estimate the probability of x downswing or upswing. But in the bankroll calculators that i use, the denominator is something like per 100 hands. It shouldn't matter whether it's 100 hands or an hour, as long as i keep it consistent.

However, it seems like if i use (2 hours) as the denominator instead of hours, my winrate numerator will of course double. I'm too sleepy to think straight about whether my SD needs to double too to produce the same RoR.
AKQJ10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 12:46 AM   #702
chzbrglr
old hand
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 1,456
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I just take the result of every session and find the average profit per hour of each session to use when calculating my standard deviation
chzbrglr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 01:10 AM   #703
mofliedlice
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,610
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I don't know how to jump into this thread......but for those worrying about standard deviation and what not should be buying Poker Journal where it's kept track of for you.

As far as the discussion....Don't know where to jump in at this point....
mofliedlice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 01:35 AM   #704
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
OK, thanks. I guess what i'm really trying to do is estimate the probability of x downswing or upswing. But in the bankroll calculators that i use, the denominator is something like per 100 hands. It shouldn't matter whether it's 100 hands or an hour, as long as i keep it consistent.

However, it seems like if i use (2 hours) as the denominator instead of hours, my winrate numerator will of course double. I'm too sleepy to think straight about whether my SD needs to double too to produce the same RoR.
no.. TO produce a constant ror for a given bankroll your winrate has to double at the same rate as the square of your sd doubles

b/ln(r)=-(σ^2/2µ)

Last edited by AEPpoker; 05-27-2011 at 01:56 AM.
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 02:49 AM   #705
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hm so maybe we can estimate it

if y is the period multiplier (ie so if were going to double the period y is 2 if were going to triple it y=3 etc)

and X is the new standard deviation
and σ is the old standard deviation

could we say

x^2=y*σ ^2

so x=sqrt(yσ ^2)

so if were going to double the period the new sd is

x^2=2*σ ^2

x=root(2*σ ^2)

so if our std dev was 10bb/100 iif we changed the period to bb/200 it would be sqrt(2*10*10)=sqrt 200 = 14.12? yesnomaybe?

EDIT: OK, this is what i get for drinking too much coffee its actually a lot simpler than this. If x is the period, and we want to increase it by y, we just increase the sd by y^2.

So if the sd is 10bb/100 its 10*sqrt(2)/100*2=14.12

the effect of this is that the period has to double twice for the SD to double once.

Last edited by AEPpoker; 05-27-2011 at 03:18 AM.
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 06:40 PM   #706
BAEVentures
veteran
 
BAEVentures's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Grind on da mind
Posts: 2,963
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Gave an update in here back in November of the live hours I had tracked of my play. Figured it's been about 7 months and I'd throw out another update. I didn't play at all live from January through April as I was laid off from work and decided to take the online grind route instead. I have since returned to the live scene, am strictly playing $2/5 NL with the occasional donkament added in.

Stats for $1/2 and $1/3 NL ($200 and $300 max respectively). The large majority of these hours were played in the evenings during the week, at either Harrah's St. Louis or Lumiere Casino in St. Louis. The rake at both of these establishments is 10% up to $4 and an additional $1 for the BBJ. No rake nor BBJ is dropped unless the hand sees a flop. I must admit, that my game was not finely tuned for the majority of these sessions, additionally, I was still struggling with some tilt issues.

33 sessions
189 hours played
$1,156 profit
$6.11 / hour
3bb/hour
9bb/100


My live results for $2/5 NLHE ($300-500 max) are quite a different story.

Locations for $1/2/5 and $2/5 were a mix of Harrah's St. Louis, once again when I still had some major leaks and minor tilt problems in my game. More recently the Horseshoe casino in Hammond, IN (10% up to $5 and $1 BBJ), Hollywood Casino in Aurora, IL (10% up to $8 and $1 BBJ), Grand Victoria Casino in Elgin, IL (10% up to $8, pre-flop rake as well, no BBJ). Lastly, Rockford Charitable Games and Chicago Charitable Games (10% up to $5, no BBJ).

28 sessions
179 hours played
$12,997 profit
$72.61 / hour
14 bb/hour
42 bb/100


Let me conclude this by saying that I don't believe $72/hr to be sustainable in the $2/5 games I am playing. They are ridiculously soft, I do table select, and feel that I am one of the best players in this player pool, however, that being said, despite not running "above EV" over my last ~150 hours, I have not had many coolers, nor coolered a large number of other individuals.

I look forward to updating again at the end of the year when my $2/5 play has reached 800-1000 hours and I have a realistic idea of my achievable WR in these games (estimated @ $40-50/hour).

There are good reasons I play so many different locations, much has to do with the location of the charitable, the time of the day, the day of the week, certain casinos get games running on certain days that play better than others, etc.

Disclaimer: None of this information includes my travel expenses, time waiting for a table, travel time, food, beverages, etc. My profit stated is post tips/rake though obv. I tip $1 per winning hand in pots over $30, and $2 per winning hand in pots over $500.

Seriously, though, looking forward to updating at the 1000 hour mark.
BAEVentures is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 07:05 PM   #707
mofliedlice
old hand
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 1,610
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone got any stats on amount they've tipped this year? Since I got Poker Journal I been tracking it just because it's there. This year in 118 sessions and 433 hours at 1/3 I've tipped $1,007.
mofliedlice is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-27-2011, 07:06 PM   #708
quesuerte
Pooh-Bah
 
quesuerte's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: Barcelona
Posts: 4,335
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^ Congrats.
quesuerte is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 12:59 PM   #709
LolPony
Pooh-Bah
 
LolPony's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @DeTalores
Posts: 4,124
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yeah, Poker Journal has made me realize how much I was tipping. I'm doing it a lot less frequently now :S.

I started with a 2k roll with the intentions of reevaluating if I went bust and had another 2k if I deemed worthy to play more 1/2nl. I had a stop-loss of 600 so only carried that with me to the casino.
First day I went I won like 100 and then I ran reallllllly bad and lost the 600 the second day. Was very demoralizing. Then the third day I won ~750 and got my confidence back.

Since then I've played 93 hours at 32.6/hr. I just start out real tight until I get reads on the table and decide who I want to get in big pots with. Then I LAG it up pretty hard. Raising any playable hand in LP and attacking the straddles relentlessly. I almost always ask for the seat change button right when I get to the table haha, and if I recognize a table with droolers I'll ask for a table change.

Is the consensus that 2/5 is almost no different than 1/2 except there might be one decent player instead of none? Just a matter of BR requirements?
LolPony is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 01:04 PM   #710
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LolPony View Post
Is the consensus that 2/5 is almost no different than 1/2 except there might be one decent player instead of none? Just a matter of BR requirements?
Not ime.

It varies from game to game, but generally i would say most of your profit in a typical 1-2 game comes from calling stations who c/c 3 streets of value with marginal hands/draws.

In a typical 2-5 game, there will be ppl like this, though they wont be nearly as common. Most of your money in a typical 2/5 game will come from bad LAGs who bluff in bad/obvious spots and have value ranges that are way too wide
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 04:07 PM   #711
deesnuts
veteran
 
deesnuts's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Location: Maltese
Posts: 2,958
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by BAEVentures View Post



28 sessions
179 hours played
$12,997 profit
$72.61 / hour
14 bb/hour
42 bb/100

I'm having similar results since my return to live poker following Black Friday. Live NL is actually relatively new to my area because previously they had a $200 max bet.
I'm also looking forward to getting in 500-1000 hours to see where I'm at though it's going to take me a while because I have a full time job and I have little interest in spending more time at the casino than I already do.
deesnuts is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 05:21 PM   #712
yodachoda
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago IL suburbs
Posts: 2,936
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey guys. My results have deteriorated further. I'm at ~230 hours, $5/hour. Over the last 30 hours or so, I've lost $175.

Poker is tough because its hard to tell if you're unlucky or not playing optimally. I'm questioning whether it's best to just play the same way that villains whom I lose to play, super freakin nitty. I feel I'm just not lucky enough to play super freakin nitty. I just cant rely on sets + to win because it's not uncommon I go entire days without even making a set or better. These supernits flop sets and straights like its nothing, and that just doesn't happen to me.

I'm pushing small edges constantly, pushing all in for a $500 pot if I think it's +EV by a few bucks. I think I just need a much larger sample size to determine whether I'm playing bad or unlucky. Luckily my semester ends soon so I'll have some time to hit the felt. I haven't played poker in a few weeks now...
yodachoda is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 05:33 PM   #713
LolPony
Pooh-Bah
 
LolPony's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: @DeTalores
Posts: 4,124
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post

I'm pushing small edges constantly, pushing all in for a $500 pot if I think it's +EV by a few bucks.
I don't think this is really necessary. I'm assuming you're playing 1/2. Which means it's pretty easy to get a huge edge over 99.9% of 1/2 live players. Why get stuck in huge pots where your ev is only a few dollars, when there are so many other spots to crush them?

I'm not saying don't do +ev plays, because obv if they're +ev it's a good play, but when All it will do is increase your variance though and to me that doesnt really sound worth the few extra dollars. Pick better spots!

Also $175 in 30 hours doesnt sound bad at all? A lot of my 5-8 hour sessions I win/lose >400.
LolPony is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 06:30 PM   #714
joos
grinder
 
joos's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 453
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Whats best tracking for android that you guys are using?
joos is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 06:49 PM   #715
yodachoda
veteran
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: Chicago IL suburbs
Posts: 2,936
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LolPony View Post
I don't think this is really necessary. I'm assuming you're playing 1/2. Which means it's pretty easy to get a huge edge over 99.9% of 1/2 live players. Why get stuck in huge pots where your ev is only a few dollars, when there are so many other spots to crush them?

I'm not saying don't do +ev plays, because obv if they're +ev it's a good play, but when All it will do is increase your variance though and to me that doesnt really sound worth the few extra dollars. Pick better spots!

Also $175 in 30 hours doesnt sound bad at all? A lot of my 5-8 hour sessions I win/lose >400.
Because +EV is plus EV, whether its $5 or $50. I like to look at poker as a game where passing up on +EV situations is the same thing as lighting money on fire. It's just as bad as making bad calls. And I never forget poker is alot of luck and gambling.

Also, there are two more benefits of not passing on marginally +EV situations:

1. Gives you an action image, more likely to get paid off later, and villains are less likely to bluff you later.

2. It's fun! Folding is boring...Also I find it keeps me more mentally alert, I tend to get tired mentally if I go hours folding and folding.
yodachoda is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 08:02 PM   #716
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
Because +EV is plus EV,
No, its not. Because when you push what you perceive to be miniscule edges even small errors in ranging your opponents are magnified many times over. Because we are frequently pushing a perceived advantage rather than a perceived disadvantage in spots like this, our ranging errors are also magnified in only one direction.

Now you might say, "OK, i just wont make any errors" but it doesnt work like that. Your estimation of your opponents range is an estimation.

Quote:
1. Gives you an action image, more likely to get paid off later, and villains are less likely to bluff you later.
At the level youre playing, you dont need image to get action.
Quote:
2. It's fun! Folding is boring...Also I find it keeps me more mentally alert, I tend to get tired mentally if I go hours folding and folding.
You mean the scintillating company doesnt keep you occupied and entertained?
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 08:37 PM   #717
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LolPony View Post

I had a stop-loss of 600 so only carried that with me to the casino.

Curious folks' thoughts on stop loss. Sounds good to me in theory but then I have days like yesterday. 1/3, I keep buying in until I'm $1250 in, with $350 left on the table. An hour later I go up and I cash out $2350. (yes, it's deep for 1/3)

If you buy in $300 it's not long until you are in $900.

I often start a session kind of stupid and dump a bi the first orbit or two, then get paid off when I hit good hands.

Also curious on BR requirements. I'm a pretty high variance player. Mostly 1/2 but starting to play more 2/5 which suits my style better.

So how much would folks recommend I BR?

I have $5k set up for it, which seems like an ungodly amount of money. It's 50 bi at $100.

But this Spring I hit a downswing over $5k (was up $2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on $3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +$2400 to - $3000.

I'm getting close to being positive again but that was a big swing...

I'm wanting to buy in deeper in general ($300) but am wondering how many bi I need relative to my old $100 bi.

I need to work on my game (I make really brilliant plays, then really stupid plays, also play when exhausted, pissed off, underrolled, etc.) I know.

But I just want to have a sense now of what BR I should realistically be looking at if I'm doing $300 bi in general (assuming I plug my leaks OK).

Thx
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 08:38 PM   #718
poke4fun
veteran
 
poke4fun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,191
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Speaking of tips...why is it that we get ~$1 an hour in comps while dealers easily get 10 - 20x that in an hour? Not to mention that we pay for outrageous rakes...

Sigh...I just have to pretend that I don't notice these kind of things if I want to keep playing in B&M.
poke4fun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 08:40 PM   #719
poke4fun
veteran
 
poke4fun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Posts: 3,191
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72winner View Post
Curious folks' thoughts on stop loss. Sounds good to me in theory but then I have days like yesterday. 1/3, I keep buying in until I'm $1250 in, with $350 left on the table. An hour later I go up and I cash out $2350. (yes, it's deep for 1/3)

If you buy in $300 it's not long until you are in $900.

I often start a session kind of stupid and dump a bi the first orbit or two, then get paid off when I hit good hands.

Also curious on BR requirements. I'm a pretty high variance player. Mostly 1/2 but starting to play more 2/5 which suits my style better.

So how much would folks recommend I BR?

I have $5k set up for it, which seems like an ungodly amount of money. It's 50 bi at $100.

But this Spring I hit a downswing over $5k (was up $2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on $3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +$2400 to - $3000.

I'm getting close to being positive again but that was a big swing...

I'm wanting to buy in deeper in general ($300) but am wondering how many bi I need relative to my old $100 bi.

I need to work on my game (I make really brilliant plays, then really stupid plays, also play when exhausted, pissed off, underrolled, etc.) I know.

But I just want to have a sense now of what BR I should realistically be looking at if I'm doing $300 bi in general (assuming I plug my leaks OK).

Thx
Looking at my PokerJournal stats, I can tell you that my winning sessions are mostly off 1 or 2 buy-ins, and my losing sessions can go anywhere between 2 to...sigh.

So if you're in deep, chances are you will only dig deeper.
poke4fun is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 11:06 PM   #720
waar
journeyman
 
waar's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Philadelphia
Posts: 375
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

With Poker Journal how do you make it so your graph starts off at zero? If you enter your first session as a winning session then it starts your graph at the amount you won...
waar is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-02-2011, 11:36 PM   #721
AKQJ10
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: Who am I? How did I get here?
Posts: 12,955
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72winner View Post
So how much would folks recommend I BR?
What's your estimated winrate?

I am and will continue to be a broken record about this until it's so ingrained in the culture here that people don't even consider asking for BR with estimating WR. (Risk of ruin too, for that matter, but 1% is a standard assumption for risk tolerance.)

Distance = rate * time, so how far you can drive if you go 100 km/h (or 60 mph, take your pick)? How should you play 98 after the flop? How big is a box?
AKQJ10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2011, 12:29 AM   #722
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Very right. The challenge is I'm just getting going so I don't have a good win rate established.

Right now I'm pretty much break even but that includes some really stupid stuff (playing totally exhausted and spacey, on my D game, bluffing too much at calling stations, etc.) that I am getting away from.

I crush the game some times and then do really stupid stuff when I'm tired/tilted.

If I adjust for the really stupid stuff I wont do again and extreme bad luck (EG losing 3 consecutive entire night earnings with final turn shoves 90% 81% and 90% ahead) I'd estimate $10/hr.

But my variance is massive. I'll often be up $100/hr from a session but will be down the next session.

I mostly need to know how many bi I should have in the bank to where if I run through it I should pretty well know that it's me being bad, not bad luck.

I feel like I've been running bad but difficult to tell. Flopping a queen high flush I usually try to get money in. When twice in a week someone FLOPS ace high flush at the SAME time as I flop queen high flush I feel like I'm unlucky.

But I need some neutral metric to determine. (EG X# of hours, Y # of bi at risk).




.
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2011, 09:09 AM   #723
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AKQJ10 View Post
I am and will continue to be a broken record about this until it's so ingrained in the culture here that people don't even consider asking for BR with estimating WR. (Risk of ruin too, for that matter, but 1% is a standard assumption for risk tolerance.)
+1. this is universal on 2p2 -- even from people you would expect to know better.
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2011, 09:12 AM   #724
AEPpoker
banned
 
AEPpoker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2009
Location: the banks of the rubicon
Posts: 3,248
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 72winner View Post

But this Spring I hit a downswing over $5k (was up $2400 then hit got felted 90% ahead, 81% ahead, 90% ahead- missing out on $3200 of winnings on those 3 session-ending hands then lost more money in other sessions being dumb, etc.) Went from +$2400 to - $3000.
How deep are you buying in/playing?
AEPpoker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 06-03-2011, 09:24 AM   #725
72winner
adept
 
72winner's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Ohio
Posts: 1,078
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by AEPpoker View Post
How deep are you buying in/playing?
$300 typically now.

$200-300 at 1/2 and $400 at 2/5
72winner is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:50 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive