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Old 04-17-2014, 08:48 AM   #7026
iraisetoomuch
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As for bank roll, that's pretty standard.
~25 buy ins of 100bb each is considered pretty acceptable.

If you can replenish your bank roll from life money, then less is obviously fine if you are a winning player.
If you can't, then you should have more. Like 35-45 BI.
As for win rates, I dunno, because I live in America.
Spoiler:

Depends on what sort of rake structure the casinos have.
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Old 04-17-2014, 08:53 AM   #7027
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SackofNuts View Post
Guys is 5% rake capped at 50$ for 1/2 beatable by any chance in the long run? Even under the most optimal table conditions, droolers, deep stacked (200bb+ for majority of stacks)

Or does the house just rape everyone regardless
The house does a really good job of raping everyone in the long run.

If the aveage pot is 50bb, then the average size is $100, and the house takes $5. Not so bad.

But when people are getting AA vs KK AIPF for 125bb each, that's a $500 pot, and the house will be taking $25 out! That's pretty massive. And the more fishy the people are the more the house will be taking as the pots will be bigger.

I'd think that a top winner in this game could still make a decent hourly if the games were always really good, but the better the games are (i.e. the bigger the pots are) the faster the casino is going rake away all of the money.

In most places, because the rake is capped at $5 or $7 the house stops taking a piece ~40bb into the pot. Sometimes less. So when the pots get bigger than that their effective % goes down. In a 200bb pot, the house still only takes 2.5bb. So, essentially 1% of the pot. But here, the house is always taking 5% of the pot, up to $50, which won't happen until the pot is a whopping $1,000!

The money will quickly dry up without whales that are continuing to bring more money into the economy or some sick promotions that will give some of the money back to the economy.
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Old 04-17-2014, 10:19 AM   #7028
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
Weekday afternoons and graveyard are the best times to play in Vegas IMO for a weekday
What is it about weekday afternoons that you find to be profitable? Are there not more grinders?
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Old 04-17-2014, 10:36 AM   #7029
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

@iraisetoomuch

So there's a twist in the story. I've been offered a "rakeback" deal by the host. The offer is 7% of net profit by hour.

So for example, if he runs the game for 15 hours and rakes 3.5k, after paying the dealers plus players food and drinks and transportation rebates, he's left with 3k profit. Which comes down to a profit of $200 per hour, of which I will get 7% for every hour I've played. So my hourly "rakeback" for that session would have been $14 per hour, and if I played 5 hours I would get $60.

How does this change the outlook for me? Is this a good deal? (All the above is for a 1/2 or 2/2 game, obviously examples are just to make calculations easier/clearer. I don't know how much the average rake of 5% capped at $50 would be per hour.)
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Old 04-17-2014, 01:02 PM   #7030
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Think about it, if you're really getting paid $14/hour - out of all the rake, ie it's not contributed rake - then you could literally play zero hands and profit, right?

Presumably, you can always play AA profitably (shoving all in preflop would always pre profitable, at minimum). Presumably you can also play KK profitably. So then let's assume there are some hands you can always play profitably. You just need to find the right balance. But the $14/hour is always going to outweigh the cost of the blinds around the table (unless you're playing like 4 orbits/hour).
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Old 04-17-2014, 01:43 PM   #7031
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tl;dr
With some basic assumptions, it's beatable with the rake back, esp if you can play nitty. But there's a lot of details that I'd want to ask him before I agreed to play.



Quote:
Originally Posted by SackofNuts View Post
@iraisetoomuch

So there's a twist in the story. I've been offered a "rakeback" deal by the host. The offer is 7% of net profit by hour.

So for example, if he runs the game for 15 hours and rakes 3.5k, after paying the dealers plus players food and drinks and transportation rebates, he's left with 3k profit. Which comes down to a profit of $200 per hour, of which I will get 7% for every hour I've played. So my hourly "rakeback" for that session would have been $14 per hour, and if I played 5 hours I would get $60.

How does this change the outlook for me? Is this a good deal? (All the above is for a 1/2 or 2/2 game, obviously examples are just to make calculations easier/clearer. I don't know how much the average rake of 5% capped at $50 would be per hour.)
So I think that there is a few things to consider here:

How much are the perks worth to you? Do you expect to get value from this 'transportation rebate', do you expect to be eating a lot of the food? Do the drinks help people to play worse?

Also, is he offering you rake back so that you will be a consistent player in the game? So that you will bring other people? Does he have any expectation on how much you will play? Does he expect you to be laggy? If not, this deal is likely pretty good for you as you can play pretty nitty and still make a nice profit on the side.

Also, will he be paying you that day, or will he be holding your money until some later date? Are you worried about the legality of this deal? Is home poker legal in your state? (I doubt it.)

I know these are a lot of questions, but I just want to give you the tools to help you analyse your situation and the possible outcomes.

Having said all of that: The average casino deals 32 hands / hour. (Including chops, hands that are raised pre flop, and no one calls, and everything else.) So, we will assume that your home game will only deal 25 hands / hour.
If we assume average pot sizes of 100bb (which seems a bit large, but whatever) that means that we are seeing ~$2,500 in hour being wagered. Host takes 5% (since it's pretty unlikely that a pot will grow over $1,000) so $250 / hour in rake. If the game runs 10 hours a day (6pm - 4 am), he's taking in $2,500 in rake for the day.

Dealer is getting $20/hour if he's not getting tipped, $200. Drinks are going to cost $200 or so. Food will cost $200 or so. This transportation cost whatever it is will likely cost $200 or so. So, now we are down to $1,700 in net rake. Your 7% take? $119. That's $11.9 / hour in rake back. Not a bad deal.

So, if you are a winning player a normal casino making 5bb/hour which is a true win rate of 10bb/hour (5bb/hour * $2 + $10/hour in rake) you are making $20/hour from your skill in the game. In this game, you are still making $20/hour - $25/hour in rake + $11.9/hour in rake back = $6.9/hour or ~3.5bb/hour. Seems like it's beatable, but will give you a worse winrate overall.
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Old 04-17-2014, 06:47 PM   #7032
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
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Old 04-17-2014, 07:00 PM   #7033
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

-15 or 20 buy ins.
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Old 04-17-2014, 07:02 PM   #7034
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan View Post
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
About $6k over 240ish hours. Playing mostly $1/2NL, varying caps ($200 or $300 depending on the room), with a little bit of $1/2 PLO in there.

Then another 200 hours or so that was just about break even after that.

It was enough to get me to reassess my game and if I was a winning player. Looking back on it, I shouldn't have played PLO in there, and some of it was various forms of tilt (not always calling too much, sometimes folding too much). But there were some really gnarly coolers in there too. 2 outed on the river for $1000 pot, etc.
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Old 04-17-2014, 07:48 PM   #7035
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan View Post
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
~$9k in 400 hours at 2/5 and 5/5. Knew I was a winning player but certainly felt like crap.
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Old 04-17-2014, 08:15 PM   #7036
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

OK, gonna try this picture posting thing. OMC alert.

1/3 2014
http://i1278.photobucket.com/albums/...ps67449a5c.png

all 2014 (including 1/3, plus 2 sessions at 3/5 and 2/5)
http://i1278.photobucket.com/albums/...ps2ff8ac03.png
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Old 04-18-2014, 03:20 AM   #7037
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan View Post
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?



Two separate 500 hour break even stretches.
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Old 04-18-2014, 03:51 AM   #7038
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i got smashed today ... this little azn girl raped me.. and not the good kind of rape either. the bad kind, the money kind. -3 buyins , so 10k month is lookin prettttty, prettttty, prettty far away now.

my graph looks like




/ \
\
/ \
/ \
/
/
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Old 04-18-2014, 03:51 AM   #7039
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ok that didntgd work like i wanted it to
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Old 04-19-2014, 02:35 PM   #7040
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ashes to ashes View Post
i got smashed today ... this little azn girl raped me.. and not the good kind of rape either. the bad kind, the money kind. -3 buyins , so 10k month is lookin prettttty, prettttty, prettty far away now.

my graph looks like




/ \
\
/ \
/ \
/
/
Damn. She raped you so hard that your graph turned into the countdown numbers from Predator.
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Old 04-20-2014, 08:09 AM   #7041
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Originally Posted by acescracked84 View Post
~$9k in 400 hours at 2/5 and 5/5. Knew I was a winning player but certainly felt like crap.
You lost 9 k during this time span? If so, that's quite scary
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Old 04-20-2014, 08:11 AM   #7042
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Black_Swan View Post
What's the worst downswing you guys have ever experienced? In terms of both sessions lost (not just consecutive sessions, but like worst losing percentage over a certain time period) and total BB's lost. If you're a winning player, what's the worst downswing you would endure before you began to seriously question whether you were a winning player at all?
200 hours and counting right now. 8 straight losing sessions and 6.2 k downswing at 2/5 and 5/5. I'm in the midst of it now. I've made back half of that 6.2k but it's the toughest stretch I've had
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Old 04-20-2014, 08:13 AM   #7043
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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200 hours and counting right now. 8 straight losing sessions and 6.2 k downswing at 2/5 and 5/5. I'm in the midst of it now. I've made back half of that 6.2k but it's the toughest stretch I've had

Wow, pretty sick. I havent experienced close to that hard of a swing. Think 3 straight losing sessions is my "record".

8 losing sessions in a row sounds horrible. I believe you learn much about yourself and a player during such a downswing?
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Old 04-20-2014, 09:05 AM   #7044
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Wow, pretty sick. I havent experienced close to that hard of a swing. Think 3 straight losing sessions is my "record".

8 losing sessions in a row sounds horrible. I believe you learn much about yourself and a player during such a downswing?
Yeah it's humbling , that's for sure 10bi downswings are going to happen occasionally for any pro that plays high variance, but it's a reminder to not take upswings for granted and to play the best you can always

I actually got my stats mixed up, 8 straight winning sessions is my record this year, 6 losing sessions is my max, still a healthy number though
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Old 04-20-2014, 09:25 AM   #7045
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Originally Posted by Pay4Myschool View Post
Yeah it's humbling , that's for sure 10bi downswings are going to happen occasionally for any pro that plays high variance, but it's a reminder to not take upswings for granted and to play the best you can always

I actually got my stats mixed up, 8 straight winning sessions is my record this year, 6 losing sessions is my max, still a healthy number though

Yes for sure. Any losing session is hard, but i think you defintely can come out on the other end as both a better person and a better poker player.

Think my winning streak record is 12 or 13 sessions in a row, wich i am quite proud of actually
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Old 04-20-2014, 11:51 AM   #7046
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Losing sessions in 9 out of last 10. How did I deal with it? By taking a break, should be back in action in a week.
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Old 04-21-2014, 02:09 AM   #7047
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
tl;dr
With some basic assumptions, it's beatable with the rake back, esp if you can play nitty. But there's a lot of details that I'd want to ask him before I agreed to play.





So I think that there is a few things to consider here:

How much are the perks worth to you? Do you expect to get value from this 'transportation rebate', do you expect to be eating a lot of the food? Do the drinks help people to play worse?

Also, is he offering you rake back so that you will be a consistent player in the game? So that you will bring other people? Does he have any expectation on how much you will play? Does he expect you to be laggy? If not, this deal is likely pretty good for you as you can play pretty nitty and still make a nice profit on the side.

Also, will he be paying you that day, or will he be holding your money until some later date? Are you worried about the legality of this deal? Is home poker legal in your state? (I doubt it.)

I know these are a lot of questions, but I just want to give you the tools to help you analyse your situation and the possible outcomes.

Having said all of that: The average casino deals 32 hands / hour. (Including chops, hands that are raised pre flop, and no one calls, and everything else.) So, we will assume that your home game will only deal 25 hands / hour.
If we assume average pot sizes of 100bb (which seems a bit large, but whatever) that means that we are seeing ~$2,500 in hour being wagered. Host takes 5% (since it's pretty unlikely that a pot will grow over $1,000) so $250 / hour in rake. If the game runs 10 hours a day (6pm - 4 am), he's taking in $2,500 in rake for the day.

Dealer is getting $20/hour if he's not getting tipped, $200. Drinks are going to cost $200 or so. Food will cost $200 or so. This transportation cost whatever it is will likely cost $200 or so. So, now we are down to $1,700 in net rake. Your 7% take? $119. That's $11.9 / hour in rake back. Not a bad deal.

So, if you are a winning player a normal casino making 5bb/hour which is a true win rate of 10bb/hour (5bb/hour * $2 + $10/hour in rake) you are making $20/hour from your skill in the game. In this game, you are still making $20/hour - $25/hour in rake + $11.9/hour in rake back = $6.9/hour or ~3.5bb/hour. Seems like it's beatable, but will give you a worse winrate overall.

This was really good analysis. So even if we are playing pretty tight, 7% is still unlikely to cover all of our contributed rake? I'm estimating at 10 handed my VPIP is 15% at most.

The host of this game is trying to establish a new game, and he wants me to be a reg at the game, the exact figures haven't been discussed yet but basically i'll have to play twice a week there.
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Old 04-21-2014, 08:41 PM   #7048
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
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Old 04-21-2014, 09:10 PM   #7049
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Meh, I'm not doing this for a living obv, but I turn it Session Logger on when I sit, add rebuys when needed, and cash out when I finish. There's so much win rate variance, and you're probably doing the same thing for the most part (i.e., taking a 30 minute meal break once a session), it's PROBABLY not going to make that much difference?

I would think it's way more useful to keep track of mental state and playing level during a session if possible. That would be way more productive/useful I think.
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Old 04-21-2014, 10:13 PM   #7050
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
i start and end a session on my phone ... i add rebuys ... but i don't hit pause every time i step away from the table. should i not worry about this if it's 5-10 minutes? only worry about a break when i am eating or taking at least 30 minutes?
Who cares really?.. I usually take 30mins every 4 hours (on average). So if I want to calc my actual table hourly then I can, but the number doesn't mean anything to me since I cannot play without taking breaks. I also round up my playing hours to closest 30min to take into account travel time to/from casino.
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