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Old 04-16-2014, 02:31 PM   #7001
Phatty
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
I'm easily the best in the poker room in the town I play in. I've seen some decent players but no one that I think is better than me. 2/5 is the biggest game they run. I pretty much never tilt live. The live **** doesn't bother me all that much for some reason.

I'll keep tracking. Hoping to have a reasonably reliable WR at 200 hours and have something pretty accurate at 500 hours.
Many people seemed quick to want to rain on your parade, but I'll just say "inconclusive" at this time. If you were really a big winner online at 100NL/200NL, then if you can adjust to all the live poker variables (mostly being patient while you go card dead hours upon hours), there's no reason you shouldn't crush live 1/2 and 2/5. Ideally you'd move up to 5/10 or higher, but if 2/5 is the highest it goes, that's all you can do.

Probably the bigger factor for all of us trying to maintain a winrate is how long a particular group of fish stays in the game. Not all card rooms are created equally. Some have more fish than others and some have bigger whales than others. If you consistently have a big edge over your villains, that translates to a big winrate if you play enough hands.

Last edited by Phatty; 04-16-2014 at 02:36 PM.
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Old 04-16-2014, 03:23 PM   #7002
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What programs are ya'll using to track live results?
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Old 04-16-2014, 03:38 PM   #7003
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O.o

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Old 04-16-2014, 03:38 PM   #7004
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Originally Posted by Phatty View Post
Many people seemed quick to want to rain on your parade, but I'll just say "inconclusive" at this time. If you were really a big winner online at 100NL/200NL, then if you can adjust to all the live poker variables (mostly being patient while you go card dead hours upon hours), there's no reason you shouldn't crush live 1/2 and 2/5. Ideally you'd move up to 5/10 or higher, but if 2/5 is the highest it goes, that's all you can do.

Probably the bigger factor for all of us trying to maintain a winrate is how long a particular group of fish stays in the game. Not all card rooms are created equally. Some have more fish than others and some have bigger whales than others. If you consistently have a big edge over your villains, that translates to a big winrate if you play enough hands.
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Originally Posted by Madmaniac21 View Post
Player admits to beating 200 and 400nl online (and then put his money towards education), and everyone respond with comments about hours/running hot/skill level/etc.

I don't know if I'm more confused about the questions being asked that searching the forum would turn up (which I would expect a true 200nl+ beater to be able to do, so ?) or the responses given the info if believed.

Yes, you are running hot. If you're being factual with your history then achieving a higher winrate then the "norm"/standard should not be a problem in my opinion, particularly if you are the best player in the room.

I've been away for a few years doing the whole "get a real job/career thing" after graduation but I used to beat 200NL online at like 6bb/100 if I recall correctly (would have to find my old DBs somewhere) with a good amount of 400NL and 3/6 and 5/10 shots.

Pretty much stopped playing prior to black friday due to wayyy too much partying. Black Friday effectively killed it for me. Partied way too damn much on the weekends after graduation with just about 0 poker for several years. Now I've stopped partying and started putting my weekend time into live poker for the past few months. I'm constantly shocked at just how bad live poker players are. I think the players in my town are definitely worse than avg, but I've made a few vegas trips and besides the few kids that do it for a living, most of the tables at 2/5 in Vegas are pretty bad too. My winrate in Vegas was about 100/hour over a much smaller sample (not as high as my town but not way lower either).

Where I play, I play 2/5 with a 1.5k max, so I can play deep all the time, which is awesome (live players are terrible at adjusting). 2/5 live IMO is equivalent to about what 25NL (.10/.25) online used to be and 1/2 is like playing 5 or 10NL online, maybe even play money lol. Also, just about no one adjusts for short handed. So when it gets short handed, I loveeeeee it and just absolutely slaughter the game.

I forget my forum password/email because I haven't logged into 2+2 in years, hence the new account. I'm not sure why you think I would make this up. I've just been logging time in, time out, hours and profit on my phone and putting it into excel to get accurate info. I know there are apps out there that are much better at this. What is the preferred app that everyone here uses to track sessions? Anything close to PT or HEM? (obv you won't have as much details or a huge hand DB)

I made this post right after I crossed the 100 hour mark to see what sustainable win rates really are. I'm constantly shocked at just how bad live players are and obviously how insane high my winrate is compared to anything I used to play online. My hourly is significantly higher than my 9-5 but I clearly have a small sample. However, I don't feel like you need a 5 million hand sample to get a rough winrate live like you do online. The variance in the live game is just insane low, especially in the town I play in and deep-stacked. To give you an idea, I have never had a losing session at 2/5 (granted I've played my way out of a few with some long hours) and only 1 losing session back at 1/2.

Like I said, I used to beat 200NL regularly with some 400NL and higher shots. I'm easily the best player in the town I play in and I play only on weekends. I haven't seen anyone that could even beat 100NL online IMO. The only negative is they only spread 2/5 on the weekends (which is the only time I have time to play anyway) and no or super rare 5/10. So if I ever wanted to move up, I would probably have to move to another town or take frequent flights to Vegas or something.

Also, I don't mind any of the raining on my parade stuff. I really just want to know what sort of win rate is actually sustainable. I feel like I am and will continue to crush the game, just looking for a somewhat accurate/reasonable/possible winrate for someone in my situation. 135/hour is like 27bb/hour and everyone is telling me 10-12 is the most someone can crush the game for. Is this accurate or can someone in my situation beat it for more like 15-20bb/hour?
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Old 04-16-2014, 03:42 PM   #7005
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You bring up a great point about live variance just being so much lower than online so the hand requirements to attain a rough idea of winrate is definitely much lower. Hope you keep up the run good and keep crushing.
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Old 04-16-2014, 04:01 PM   #7006
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if that isn't a typo and the rake is uncapped at 50, then the game isn't beatable. Doesn't matter how good you are, all your winnings will go to rake eventually.

However in the short run you may be able to do well at a game like this.

If that is a typo, and the rake is capped at 5, then just as everyone says, a 10-15bb/hr winrate should be doable. I would personally say a 15-20k bankroll would be sufficient to not go busto
Thanks for taking the time to respond.
The max rake for a pot is $50, yes. So the game is unbeatable in the long run by any standard? I thought the $50 pretty much just means there is no cap on rake but seeing as the stacks are usually very deep i didnt know what to make of it
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Old 04-16-2014, 04:02 PM   #7007
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@ Pew:

Again, no one is claiming you need a 5 million hand sample to know your WR live. To reiterate, you mentioned 200 hours. To put this in perspective, this is somewhere around 5,000 hands. I mentioned the number 1,000 hours, which is probably 20-30k hands, mostly because others tend to cite it. I think this gives you an estimate, but obviously still won't be particularly converged or anything. Nothing wrong in using that as an hourly after 1kish hours though imo. You just need to know that your WR will still fluctuate after that point. But it's likely you'll have moved up by then anyway if you're as skilled a player as you say.

In live poker, it's simultaneously about the long run, and not. You can't really get too excited about winning for a couple months or down about losing for a couple months. But also, most people who are skilled won't need very much time to move up (if they have outside income), simply because their win-rates will be so high (in terms of bb/buyins).
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Old 04-16-2014, 04:22 PM   #7008
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@pew- the best $2/$5 $500max winrates at foxwoods are ~$60/hr. In a $1500max $2/$5 game with worse players who actually buy in deep and comparable rake, I could see myself doubling that winrate pretty easily. Your data doesn't mean much yet, but obviously will mean progressively more as time goes on and is fun to watch. 1000 hours WR accuracy +-$10 seems reasonable. 500 hours +-$30 accuracy may be roughly correct.

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Old 04-16-2014, 04:27 PM   #7009
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
Thanks for the reply. I play weekends only. Usually Friday for about 10-12 hours and Saturday for 10-12 hours. The games are always sick (I play in a small town not in Las Vegas and the players are terrible.

Given this, what do you think is sustainable? 12-15bb/hour at a terrible game on the weekends only? Or is even that running hot?
honestly if you are always only playing in nut games, you never tilt, you table select well, and rake is low in your area i think you can beat your 2/5 for a little less than 100/hr over the long run. especially if it is deep and people routinely get it in without the nuts and you never pay them off when they have the nuts

my area has high rake and games tend to be nitty yet i have sustained fairly high winrates following the above conditions over the course of a the last year and a half playing 25hrs/week
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Old 04-16-2014, 05:04 PM   #7010
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@ Pew:

Again, no one is claiming you need a 5 million hand sample to know your WR live. To reiterate, you mentioned 200 hours. To put this in perspective, this is somewhere around 5,000 hands. I mentioned the number 1,000 hours, which is probably 20-30k hands, mostly because others tend to cite it. I think this gives you an estimate, but obviously still won't be particularly converged or anything. Nothing wrong in using that as an hourly after 1kish hours though imo. You just need to know that your WR will still fluctuate after that point. But it's likely you'll have moved up by then anyway if you're as skilled a player as you say.

In live poker, it's simultaneously about the long run, and not. You can't really get too excited about winning for a couple months or down about losing for a couple months. But also, most people who are skilled won't need very much time to move up (if they have outside income), simply because their win-rates will be so high (in terms of bb/buyins).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ECGrinder View Post
@pew- the best $2/$5 $500max winrates at foxwoods are ~$60/hr. In a $1500max $2/$5 game with worse players who actually buy in deep and comparable rake, I could see myself doubling that winrate pretty easily. Your data doesn't mean much yet, but obviously will mean progressively more as time goes on and is fun to watch. 1000 hours WR accuracy +-$10 seems reasonable. 500 hours +-$30 accuracy may be roughly correct.

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Quote:
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honestly if you are always only playing in nut games, you never tilt, you table select well, and rake is low in your area i think you can beat your 2/5 for a little less than 100/hr over the long run. especially if it is deep and people routinely get it in without the nuts and you never pay them off when they have the nuts

my area has high rake and games tend to be nitty yet i have sustained fairly high winrates following the above conditions over the course of a the last year and a half playing 25hrs/week
@scourrge: I completely agree with you scourrge, 100 hours is like 2500 hands and obviously a very small sample, especially coming from online. However, with the super low live variance, I feel like 2500 hands live = like 25,000 hands online. Still small, but starting to mean something.

@ECGrinder: To give you an idea, there are no online pros that I have noticed and really no pros at all here. The "good regs" are really just live players that have a decent enough game and understanding to beat the lowest games at 1/2 and play at 2/5. I'll check out Poker Journal, thanks. I'll PM you the town. Middle of nowhere town. Pretty sure you won't be stopping by often.

@CallMeLucid: I wouldn't say these are ALWAYS nut games, but there is often a couple really terrible/ultra bad players. I played there this past weekend and it was super slow. None of these types of players, just regs and a couple shorter stack tourist/newguy types. Despite this, I still walked away +3k over 12 hours. The regs aren't good and are very exploitable. They remind me of 25NL type/level of players. Especially if it gets short handed, they are super easily to exploit, like ATM status. There is usually only 1-3 2/5 tables max, so not a lot of table select although I try to maximize the terrible opponents though by never leaving the table while they are there. Just curious, what is your winrate at 2/5 and over how many hands?
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Old 04-16-2014, 05:36 PM   #7011
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Nobody is beating 2/5 for $100/hr, you guys are nuts. If you really believe that, you haven't been through a significant downswing. $50-60 is much more realistic over a real sample size.
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Old 04-16-2014, 05:53 PM   #7012
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Nobody here blinks an eye at a -2BI session. When a common occurrence like that swings your win-rate by 33% you can just LOL at your sample size.
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Old 04-16-2014, 06:37 PM   #7013
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Nobody is beating 2/5 for $100/hr, you guys are nuts. If you really believe that, you haven't been through a significant downswing. $50-60 is much more realistic over a real sample size.
If you play in great games only during primetime hours, its possible to do so

You don't ever sit at games for hours at a time where you estimate your WR at that specific game to be $100+?
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Old 04-16-2014, 07:46 PM   #7014
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Every once in a while I get that dream table where there are no decent players and like 5 deep stacked droolers that love to gamble and I think to myself "If I could play poker against these guys every day I'd quit my job right now." The real question is how often do those tables even exist to be selected? I suppose some people out there could achieve an unthinkable winrate if they only sat in near perfect conditions and passed on the cardroom altogether when tables were tougher, but they would be sacrificing total profit for winrate, not a smart move.
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Old 04-16-2014, 07:50 PM   #7015
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Every once in a while I get that dream table where there are no decent players and like 5 deep stacked droolers that love to gamble and I think to myself "If I could play poker against these guys every day I'd quit my job right now." The real question is how often do those tables even exist to be selected? I suppose some people out there could achieve an unthinkable winrate if they only sat in near perfect conditions and passed on the cardroom altogether when tables were tougher, but they would be sacrificing total profit for winrate, not a smart move.
If you are fine with the ego hit of playing lower occasionally it is definitely do able. (Which is what I see a lot of 5/10 pros doing)

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Old 04-16-2014, 08:14 PM   #7016
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Every once in a while I get that dream table where there are no decent players and like 5 deep stacked droolers that love to gamble and I think to myself "If I could play poker against these guys every day I'd quit my job right now." The real question is how often do those tables even exist to be selected? I suppose some people out there could achieve an unthinkable winrate if they only sat in near perfect conditions and passed on the cardroom altogether when tables were tougher, but they would be sacrificing total profit for winrate, not a smart move.

Home games. =]
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Old 04-16-2014, 10:54 PM   #7017
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Right.

So, the thing here as some people have eluded to, but not really said straight out:

There are amazing tables, where we can win 20bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are pretty good tables, where we can win 15bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are reasonable tables, where we can win 10bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are meh tables, where we can win 5bb/hour at the over the long term.

If amazing tables only exist 5 hours a week, and that's all we play, we will average 100bb/week in profit, and 20bb/hour. (Assume 2/5) We will make $500 per week, and $100/hour.
If pretty good tables exist for 10 hours per week, and we play those and the amazing tables, we will average 250bb/week in profit, and 16.6bb/hour. We will make $1,245 per week, and $83/hour.
If reasonable tables exist for 30 hours a week, and we play those and the better tables, we will average 550bb/week in profit, and 12.2bb/hour. We will make $2,750 a week, and $61.1/hour.
So on and so forth, you get the idea.

So, yes, by playing less we can improve our win rate. But how much money do we need to live? And how much do we want to make? Keeping our win rate in terms of $'s/hour really high is stupid if it means that we are still turning down profitable opportunities on other areas. Yes, our max win rate might be over $100 / hour at 2/5, but that doesn't mean that we don't want to take the $40/hour sessions because they will 'bring down our average'.
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:20 PM   #7018
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@iraisetomuch nice post man. To lazy to do the math for your examples myself, but that's essentially how it works for a full time player
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:20 PM   #7019
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Right.

So, the thing here as some people have eluded to, but not really said straight out:

There are amazing tables, where we can win 20bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are pretty good tables, where we can win 15bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are reasonable tables, where we can win 10bb/hour at them over the long term.
There are meh tables, where we can win 5bb/hour at the over the long term.

If amazing tables only exist 5 hours a week, and that's all we play, we will average 100bb/week in profit, and 20bb/hour. (Assume 2/5) We will make $500 per week, and $100/hour.
If pretty good tables exist for 10 hours per week, and we play those and the amazing tables, we will average 250bb/week in profit, and 16.6bb/hour. We will make $1,245 per week, and $83/hour.
If reasonable tables exist for 30 hours a week, and we play those and the better tables, we will average 550bb/week in profit, and 12.2bb/hour. We will make $2,750 a week, and $61.1/hour.
So on and so forth, you get the idea.

So, yes, by playing less we can improve our win rate. But how much money do we need to live? And how much do we want to make? Keeping our win rate in terms of $'s/hour really high is stupid if it means that we are still turning down profitable opportunities on other areas. Yes, our max win rate might be over $100 / hour at 2/5, but that doesn't mean that we don't want to take the $40/hour sessions because they will 'bring down our average'.
Agreed with this. I work a 9-5 so it works out for me that I get to play at optimum hours (weekends only).

I'm curious, for those playing for a living in Vegas, obviously the weekends will be the juciest games but what about weekdays? On my few trips there, I experienced juicy touristy weekend games, but also many businessmen playing on the weekdays. How does your WR compare on weekdays vs weekends?
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:27 PM   #7020
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Agreed with this. I work a 9-5 so it works out for me that I get to play at optimum hours (weekends only).

I'm curious, for those playing for a living in Vegas, obviously the weekends will be the juciest games but what about weekdays? On my few trips there, I experienced juicy touristy weekend games, but also many businessmen playing on the weekdays. How does your WR compare on weekdays vs weekends?



California better for poker 10 months out of the year.
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:34 PM   #7021
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Weekday afternoons and graveyard are the best times to play in Vegas IMO for a weekday
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:36 PM   #7022
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California better for poker 10 months out of the year.
Interesting. Where in CA exactly? And why is this? Just more pros in Vegas?
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:53 PM   #7023
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Guessing LA.
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Old 04-17-2014, 03:26 AM   #7024
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Guys is 5% rake capped at 50$ for 1/2 beatable by any chance in the long run? Even under the most optimal table conditions, droolers, deep stacked (200bb+ for majority of stacks)

Or does the house just rape everyone regardless
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Old 04-17-2014, 08:42 AM   #7025
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Ill try again since I really need to know

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hey guys,

I have been playing online for a long time with good results (so far this year 5.5ev bb at 50nl over 500K hands), and I decided to play live in london for the next couple of months. I have very little experience and I have a couple of questions to my fellow london grinders ( or anyone that knows about this). How good are the games in casinos generally at the 1-3 ? What casino is the best for what reasons? The only time I played live in london was for 2 hours at the vic at 1-2 and thought that the table was pretty soft? What hourly do you think is attainable for a player with good knowledge but litle to no live experience yet? And finally what bankroll would you suggest to play 1-3 and 2-5?

Looking forward to what you guys have to say; cheers !
if this isnt the right place to ask these questions please let me know
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