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Old 04-15-2014, 12:11 AM   #6976
Jake Stanton
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ashes to ashes View Post
this is where we brag about our winrates right ? well i dont keep track of my hours , but here are my stats:

ive played every day this month except one
i have won every day ive played except one
my only losing day was not even -.25 BI
avg ~ .80 BI/day
10k month at 2/5 ....?


annnnnnnd end jinx.
lol, sweet! i've never had a 10k month in poker (jealous) but i only play $1/$2. i got 43hrs in so far this month with an above average (for me anyway) 1.5k profit.
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Old 04-15-2014, 01:47 AM   #6977
Duke0424
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ashes to ashes View Post
this is where we brag about our winrates right ? well i dont keep track of my hours , but here are my stats:

ive played every day this month except one
i have won every day ive played except one
my only losing day was not even -.25 BI
avg ~ .80 BI/day
10k month at 2/5 ....?


annnnnnnd end jinx.
Lol why would you post this before the month is over?

Get ready for your downswing
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Old 04-15-2014, 01:49 AM   #6978
scourrge
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

swooooooong
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Old 04-15-2014, 09:05 AM   #6979
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Originally Posted by ashes to ashes View Post
this is where we jinx our winrates right ?
Fyp?

Jk gl on that 10k month!
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Old 04-15-2014, 02:05 PM   #6980
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Originally Posted by day'n'night View Post
I have very little live experience but I am going to barcelona and I will be splitting profits with 2 other good live grinders for 1 week. We plan to play 150 hours split into 3 for these 7 days.

From what I heard games are joke soft, and so what do you think is a possible hourly there? Or in general soft 2/4 games? Keep in mind I have very little live experience, but I do very well online at zoom (which I guess skill wise is much tougher, and so far I am at 5.5evbb over 500k hands at nl50).

Any advice would be greatly appreciated cheers !
ˇ Hola !

Not the best place to start playing live if you have very little experience. Barcelona is known to be one of the thoughtest place in europe (at least the 3/6€ for sure). The rake is something like 4-5% to 20€ (cap) but we nearly never tip.

The best players crush that limit around 10bb/hr, solid players from 7-10bb/hr.

On a 150 hours sample, the variance will decide the results for you, so it's better not to think about what a long term winrate can be... You may splitting the looses!

suerte
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Old 04-15-2014, 06:10 PM   #6981
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
Lol why would you post this before the month is over?

Get ready for your downswing
Agreed, poker gods aren't gonna like that...
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:00 AM   #6982
Pew_Pew
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Question: What are sustainable win rates for live 1/2, 2/5, 5/10? Also, what sample sizes are sufficient to determine a rough win rate?

Background:
Former online semi-pro that beat mostly 200NL with some 400NL and occasional shots at 3/6 and 5/10. Used the money to pay for tuition/room and board for a few years. Online poker went bye bye and I got away from it and spent my time partying way too much and got a "real job". Stopped partying so much and started to focus on live poker on the weekends. Built from nothing and absolutely crushed 1/2 and quickly moved up to 2/5. Current win rate is $135/hour over 100 hours of play at 2/5.

Live players, even the 2/5 regs are absolutely terrible compared to online. However, this win rate can't be sustainable, can it? I think this equates to like 100/bb 100 which is insane.

My question is:
How sustainable is this win rate?
What is an average win rate for someone absolutely crushing 2/5?
Also, what is a good # of hours to have a reliable win rate?
(Obviously you will never get the hundreds of thousands of hands you get online to somewhat accurately determine this, but you have to determine a rough win rate at some hours mark I would think)
How hot am I running?
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:04 AM   #6983
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Your win rate is not sustainable.

Most people agree that 10-12bb / hour is about the most that someone can sustain full time.

If you are in a super sick game, and you only play a few days a week it can be higher.
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:04 AM   #6984
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by corlath View Post
"There's your net worth, and after that it's all just accounting. You can say you have a poker bankroll, but really what you have is an imaginary wall between some of your money and the rest of it."

-Tommy Angelo
wow, something wise by tommy angelo. better said by Negreanu though imo.
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:10 AM   #6985
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
Question: What are sustainable win rates for live 1/2, 2/5, 5/10? Also, what sample sizes are sufficient to determine a rough win rate?

Background:
Former online semi-pro that beat mostly 200NL with some 400NL and occasional shots at 3/6 and 5/10. Used the money to pay for tuition/room and board for a few years. Online poker went bye bye and I got away from it and spent my time partying way too much and got a "real job". Stopped partying so much and started to focus on live poker on the weekends. Built from nothing and absolutely crushed 1/2 and quickly moved up to 2/5. Current win rate is $135/hour over 100 hours of play at 2/5.

Live players, even the 2/5 regs are absolutely terrible compared to online. However, this win rate can't be sustainable, can it? I think this equates to like 100/bb 100 which is insane.

My question is:
How sustainable is this win rate?
What is an average win rate for someone absolutely crushing 2/5?
Also, what is a good # of hours to have a reliable win rate?
(Obviously you will never get the hundreds of thousands of hands you get online to somewhat accurately determine this, but you have to determine a rough win rate at some hours mark I would think)
How hot am I running?
You are running ridiculously hot and that winrate is not even remotely sustainable.
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:12 AM   #6986
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Re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by flip2win View Post
Poker Journal is sweet for the iPhone. I actually use Poker Income Pro...it's pretty sweet and think it's a bit better than Poker Journal. Also more expensive. You can even record vpip and player profiles.
Ive been using PJ for a while on iPhone. Its a good app but that thing that pisses me off is the developer RARELY releases updates.. When he does it is only stability fixes/bugs etc.

I would really like to have more graph options.. e.g. bar graphs for hours played per month, money won per month. The report feature is nice for stakes played but would prefer to see a more visual representation (graphs).
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:17 AM   #6987
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Your win rate is not sustainable.

Most people agree that 10-12bb / hour is about the most that someone can sustain full time.

If you are in a super sick game, and you only play a few days a week it can be higher.
Thanks for the reply. I play weekends only. Usually Friday for about 10-12 hours and Saturday for 10-12 hours. The games are always sick (I play in a small town not in Las Vegas and the players are terrible.

Given this, what do you think is sustainable? 12-15bb/hour at a terrible game on the weekends only? Or is even that running hot?
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:40 AM   #6988
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
Thanks for the reply. I play weekends only. Usually Friday for about 10-12 hours and Saturday for 10-12 hours. The games are always sick (I play in a small town not in Las Vegas and the players are terrible.

Given this, what do you think is sustainable? 12-15bb/hour at a terrible game on the weekends only? Or is even that running hot?
Prob not unless you are best in room and don't tilt much. Def doable for stretches but there will be some soul crushing times too. How you react to that obv v important.

But generally the wr you quote is more likely at 1/2 than 2/5 or 5/10.

I wouldn't worry about specific theoretical wr. Just put the time in and track your results
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:51 AM   #6989
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Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
Prob not unless you are best in room and don't tilt much. Def doable for stretches but there will be some soul crushing times too. How you react to that obv v important.

But generally the wr you quote is more likely at 1/2 than 2/5 or 5/10.

I wouldn't worry about specific theoretical wr. Just put the time in and track your results
I'm easily the best in the poker room in the town I play in. I've seen some decent players but no one that I think is better than me. 2/5 is the biggest game they run. I pretty much never tilt live. The live **** doesn't bother me all that much for some reason.

I'll keep tracking. Hoping to have a reasonably reliable WR at 200 hours and have something pretty accurate at 500 hours.
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:54 AM   #6990
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
I'm easily the best in the poker room in the town I play in. I've seen some decent players but no one that I think is better than me. 2/5 is the biggest game they run. I pretty much never tilt live. The live **** doesn't bother me all that much for some reason.

I'll keep tracking. Hoping to have a reasonably reliable WR at 200 hours and have something pretty accurate at 500 hours.
200 hours isn't reasonably reliable. I've had 200hr stretch at 15bb/hr and a 200hr losing stretch. And I've only been playing live since October
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Old 04-16-2014, 02:57 AM   #6991
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
I'm easily the best in the poker room in the town I play in. I've seen some decent players but no one that I think is better than me. 2/5 is the biggest game they run. I pretty much never tilt live. The live **** doesn't bother me all that much for some reason.

I'll keep tracking. Hoping to have a reasonably reliable WR at 200 hours and have something pretty accurate at 500 hours.
Hate to be another bubble-burster, especially when you're playing 20-25 hours/week, but think more like 1k hours for a reasonably reliable WR, and 2k+ for anything fairly accurate imo.

Obviously the higher your WR and the lower your variance, the smaller the sample you need, but 200 hours is laughable. Even in soft games, do you think 5k hands is going to be an accurate representation of your win-rate? Keep playing, track your results, and watch how much jumping around your win-rate does. That should inform you just as much if not more than listening to us imo.
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Old 04-16-2014, 04:16 AM   #6992
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

200 hours is a joke. I've been through 500 hour break even stretches and I crush $5 blind level games.
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Old 04-16-2014, 08:35 AM   #6993
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OL player transitioning to super juicy deep stacked live 2/2?

I'm an online player that's been grinding full time since December, beating 50NL for a mediocre WR and shot taking at 100NL. I've also played a little bit of live poker (12 sessions, average 8 hours per session) at an underground raked game and the action is super juicy, and I've made a tidy profit.

The game runs 5-6 times a week, and an old schoolmate of mine is one of the hosts (he also stakes me). It is usually a deep stacked game, most players will have about 200bb stacks, and it is not uncommon for there to be a couple of 400-500bb stacks at the table. Towards the end of sessions there can be several stacks of over 500bb. The level of play is SOOPER bad, like I've seen a 4 way all in on 3 6 8 flop and nobody has a set, deepest stacks are 600bb deep and one has an OESD and one has a K high FD, the other 2 players were shorter (around 150bb) and one had TPBK and the other had TP+FD. I pretty much haven't come across anybody that's more than a level 1 thinker/hand reader, and the even regs are people that couldn't beat online and "the bad beats are ridiculous, so I prefer playing live."

The question I have is, would it be more profitable for me to just transition to playing full time at this live game and scooping the $? I pretty much have no idea about what winrates look like live, even less so in such a deep stacked game. It probably plays more like a 2/5 game, as a function of stack sizes and people generally raising to ridiculous sizes preflop 7-12bb PFR is very standard. Rake is 5% capped at $50.

Oh, and finally, what kind of BR should I set aside to battle at this game to have low risk of ruin? I'm thinking of buying in 150bb until I get more comfortable playing deep stacked, then I probably buy in 200bb and top up everytime my stack drops below 150bb.

Any advice you guys can give to this OL kid would be appreciated.
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Old 04-16-2014, 10:32 AM   #6994
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hey guys,

I have been playing online for a long time with good results (so far this year 5.5ev bb at 50nl over 500K hands), and I decided to play live in london for the next couple of months. I have very little experience and I have a couple of questions to my fellow london grinders ( or anyone that knows about this). How good are the games in casinos generally at the 1-3 ? What casino is the best for what reasons? The only time I played live in london was for 2 hours at the vic at 1-2 and thought that the table was pretty soft? What hourly do you think is attainable for a player with good knowledge but litle to no live experience yet? And finally what bankroll would you suggest to play 1-3 and 2-5?

Looking forward to what you guys have to say; cheers !
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:53 AM   #6995
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm just starting to build a bankroll. I have $700 a month I can put towards it. I'm thinking of taking $400 to the casino to play 1/2 and since I just want to have a 2BI stop loss I'll only be going every time I have $400. Any money I win I'll be putting towards a growing bankroll along with sticking $700 a month into the bankroll. My ultimate goal is to have a sustainable bankroll to be frequent player in the 2/5 game but that is a long way away. I'll only be available to play on Friday and Saturdays so I will be limited. Does anyone see a flaw in doing it this way?
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Old 04-16-2014, 11:58 AM   #6996
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Originally Posted by rg3superbowl View Post
I'm just starting to build a bankroll. I have $700 a month I can put towards it. I'm thinking of taking $400 to the casino to play 1/2 and since I just want to have a 2BI stop loss I'll only be going every time I have $400. Any money I win I'll be putting towards a growing bankroll along with sticking $700 a month into the bankroll. My ultimate goal is to have a sustainable bankroll to be frequent player in the 2/5 game but that is a long way away. I'll only be available to play on Friday and Saturdays so I will be limited. Does anyone see a flaw in doing it this way?
No, this is fine if you have a job
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:19 PM   #6997
rg3superbowl
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Thank You Duke
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:22 PM   #6998
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thank You Duke
I concur with your SN
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Old 04-16-2014, 01:56 PM   #6999
Madmaniac21
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
Question: What are sustainable win rates for live 1/2, 2/5, 5/10? Also, what sample sizes are sufficient to determine a rough win rate?

Background:
Former online semi-pro that beat mostly 200NL with some 400NL and occasional shots at 3/6 and 5/10.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pew_Pew View Post
I'm easily the best in the poker room in the town I play in.
Player admits to beating 200 and 400nl online (and then put his money towards education), and everyone respond with comments about hours/running hot/skill level/etc.

I don't know if I'm more confused about the questions being asked that searching the forum would turn up (which I would expect a true 200nl+ beater to be able to do, so ?) or the responses given the info if believed.

Yes, you are running hot. If you're being factual with your history then achieving a higher winrate then the "norm"/standard should not be a problem in my opinion, particularly if you are the best player in the room.
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Old 04-16-2014, 02:04 PM   #7000
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Re: OL player transitioning to super juicy deep stacked live 2/2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SackofNuts View Post

The question I have is, would it be more profitable for me to just transition to playing full time at this live game and scooping the $? I pretty much have no idea about what winrates look like live, even less so in such a deep stacked game. It probably plays more like a 2/5 game, as a function of stack sizes and people generally raising to ridiculous sizes preflop 7-12bb PFR is very standard. Rake is 5% capped at $50.

Oh, and finally, what kind of BR should I set aside to battle at this game to have low risk of ruin? I'm thinking of buying in 150bb until I get more comfortable playing deep stacked, then I probably buy in 200bb and top up everytime my stack drops below 150bb.

Any advice you guys can give to this OL kid would be appreciated.
if that isn't a typo and the rake is uncapped at 50, then the game isn't beatable. Doesn't matter how good you are, all your winnings will go to rake eventually.

However in the short run you may be able to do well at a game like this.

If that is a typo, and the rake is capped at 5, then just as everyone says, a 10-15bb/hr winrate should be doable. I would personally say a 15-20k bankroll would be sufficient to not go busto
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