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Old 03-27-2014, 11:42 PM   #6851
Raidion
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I have about 2 years of poker results in spreadsheet form with just the standard stuff on it, game, location, start/end times, length of session, cash in/out, profit, etc.

Any cool stuff I should do with that data to gain insight into my game? Is standard deviation/other cool statistical metrics something that would actually benefit me?
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Old 03-28-2014, 12:09 AM   #6852
Richard Parker
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Standard deviation could probably benefit you in estimating what your stop loss should be, if that's an issue.

For example, if your standard deviation is $300, then your stop loss should be $600.
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Old 03-28-2014, 12:16 AM   #6853
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Standard deviation could probably benefit you in estimating what your stop loss should be, if that's an issue.

For example, if your standard deviation is $300, then your stop loss should be $600.
Can you elaborate how this works? I'm familiar with standard deviation, and I assume you're saying if I'm 2 std devs away from the mean (so a top tenth percentile of runbad) I should put my stop loss there. While I would tend to agree, why not 1.5x std dev?
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Old 03-28-2014, 09:12 AM   #6854
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Standard deviation could probably benefit you in estimating what your stop loss should be, if that's an issue.

For example, if your standard deviation is $300, then your stop loss should be $600.
I've never ever heard this and I'm not sure how it relates? Care to explain?
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Old 03-28-2014, 09:40 AM   #6855
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With large enough sample size, you could calculate standard deviation of your session cashout amount and get a pretty reliable idea of your swings.

For example, if your standard deviation is $300/session, that means 95% of all your sessions will fall between -$600 to +$600 range. So if you need a stop loss number, I would consider $600 as the marker, but keep in mind, it is not accounting for all those times where you may have bought in 5x for total of $1000 and won enough back to keep your loss below $600.

However, if you're someone that don't like to leave when you're stuck, and you probably are if you need a stop loss number, then I think a good number would be one just below 2 standard deviations.

Note: it's just my opinion, nothing more. Do feel free to attack it.

Last edited by Richard Parker; 03-28-2014 at 09:45 AM.
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Old 03-28-2014, 10:13 AM   #6856
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Not attacking just trying to figure out why you chose that number. I can understand why now.
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Old 03-28-2014, 10:15 AM   #6857
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What I meant was, feel free to attack my logic.
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Old 03-28-2014, 03:32 PM   #6858
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Standard deviation could probably benefit you in estimating what your stop loss should be, if that's an issue.

For example, if your standard deviation is $300, then your stop loss should be $600.
That's a neat idea. Thnx.
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Old 03-28-2014, 04:31 PM   #6859
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
i don't care if i'm the best player at the table or if i get bluffed. i'm going to be there to make $ and pay bills.

if i never play higher than $1/$3 the rest of my life, my ego isn't going to be bruised.

will i play higher? probably at some point i will at least sit at another $2/$5 game. but first i want to win $ and be able to pay all my bills, take a vacation and buy nice things for people i want to
I have never used poker to pay bills, but other than that, I used poker for the same kinds of things (vacations and treating people who were close to me) when I lived in Canada.

So let me tell you, from years of personal experience before and after: I was only able to regularly afford things like that AFTER I moved up to 2/5, not before.
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Old 03-28-2014, 05:19 PM   #6860
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RP - your stop loss figures are way too conservative.

While I think the methodology of using stdev to come up with a stop loss seems like good math - I don't know if it makes any practical sense. Why would outlier results indicate it is time to go? By the same logic, the person should stop win when they heat too fast...

Poker results are not very normally distributed in short duration samples... so stdev may not even be a very representative way to model/identify a freak short term result.

As always, I think stop losses are great - but people just need to be self aware of what they are preventing with the stop loss function... i.e. - what leads to non max EV play? Money pressure from big loss? Last buy in on table? Bad beat? ... design your stop loss or stop mechanism based on what makes you play non-optimal. Use logic that skips right around any stdev math based function IMO.
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Old 03-28-2014, 06:44 PM   #6861
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OK since we are talking about standard deviation. Can someone please explain this to me? Over 2k hour sample I have around 320 sessions or so logged. Half Omaha and half Hold em. Now my poker app says my standard deviation per hour is 340.(dollars) My observed wr is 62/hour. (Dollars) when I plug this into a calculator it says I only need like a 12k roll but I have been on multiple 10-15k downswings and I've had a 500 hour break even stretch? Either I'm ******ed or this can't be right???
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Old 03-28-2014, 06:59 PM   #6862
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Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
OK since we are talking about standard deviation. Can someone please explain this to me? Over 2k hour sample I have around 320 sessions or so logged. Half Omaha and half Hold em. Now my poker app says my standard deviation per hour is 340.(dollars) My observed wr is 62/hour. (Dollars) when I plug this into a calculator it says I only need like a 12k roll but I have been on multiple 10-15k downswings and I've had a 500 hour break even stretch? Either I'm ******ed or this can't be right???
You would have to break out the sessions by game type and stakes... mixing them together is going to screw up the WR / variance ratio.
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Old 03-28-2014, 07:00 PM   #6863
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I normalize everything to BBs and separate PLO from NLHE
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Old 03-29-2014, 11:42 AM   #6864
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by CallMeVernon View Post
I have never used poker to pay bills, but other than that, I used poker for the same kinds of things (vacations and treating people who were close to me) when I lived in Canada.

So let me tell you, from years of personal experience before and after: I was only able to regularly afford things like that AFTER I moved up to 2/5, not before.
+1.
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Old 03-29-2014, 11:43 AM   #6865
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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
RP - your stop loss figures are way too conservative.

While I think the methodology of using stdev to come up with a stop loss seems like good math - I don't know if it makes any practical sense. Why would outlier results indicate it is time to go? By the same logic, the person should stop win when they heat too fast...

Poker results are not very normally distributed in short duration samples... so stdev may not even be a very representative way to model/identify a freak short term result.

As always, I think stop losses are great - but people just need to be self aware of what they are preventing with the stop loss function... i.e. - what leads to non max EV play? Money pressure from big loss? Last buy in on table? Bad beat? ... design your stop loss or stop mechanism based on what makes you play non-optimal. Use logic that skips right around any stdev math based function IMO.
+1
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Old 03-29-2014, 11:51 AM   #6866
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

fwiw my stop loss is right around 2x my SD / session so it could be a decent guideline.. But I agree it should't really need to be calculated as it depends mainly on other factors. i.e. how big your roll actually is, how well you play when stuck etc..
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Old 04-01-2014, 01:54 PM   #6867
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Winrate and variance.

I'm a university student who doesn't have the roll to move up too 500NL and 1000NL yet. I have played poker seriously for less than two months I'm posting this the medium high stakes because I feel like 1000NL players are most qualified to answer this question.

I know a win-rate of 30bb/100 is very high. But I also know that the 1-2 live games are softer than my dick on a saturday night. I have played about 100 hours at 1-2 live and won just over 3.2k

If i do all of the following:
- Play 1-2 live mostly on friday and saturday between 8pm and 4am
- Play afternoons on sundays
- Constantly am hunting for the best table
- Seat change whenever it is optimal
- Never tilt
- Always watch hands of other players
- Send strong false tells
- Am a very good hand reader
- Don't play donk poker

Is it possible to maintain a winrate of 30bb/100, or even increase this winrate? Is this standard for sharks who play 1-2? Is this win-rate from an upswing or is it not that uncommon? I'm asking this on the 1000NL forums because I don't want a bunch of micro stakes players to talk about how 1-2 live is unbeatable. If you guys played 1-2 on a friday night, would you easily be able to walk away with an average of $180 profit every 3 hours? Seems so easy when i put it like that. I wan't to know if i can expect to maintain this if i play good poker my next 100 hours

Rake is 10% to $5 and no BBJ, rakeback is nothing like $5 every 10 hours or something. Buy in is 300NL 1-2. Avrge pot size ranges from $60-$130.

I don't want to brag, but where i play i feel like im probably the best reg who plays 300NL at my casino (kind of like being the highest bencher out of a group of armless children). I just want to know if this winrate is sustainable

Last edited by TheSamasaurus; 04-01-2014 at 02:05 PM.
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Old 04-01-2014, 02:08 PM   #6868
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You should read the thread...Heck, just read THIS PAGE...before you ask a question that has been discussed already (and is pretty much the raison d'etre of this whole thread).

Sorry if this sounds harsh, but....
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Old 04-01-2014, 02:10 PM   #6869
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You should read the thread...Heck, just read THIS PAGE...before you ask a question that has been discussed already (and is pretty much the raison d'etre of this whole thread).

Sorry if this sounds harsh, but....
Not at all, thanks for redirecting me
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Old 04-01-2014, 02:59 PM   #6870
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Pretty good March, started off bad with a $1500 downswing the first few days, but ended the month on a pretty good run. Probably more 2/5 at the strip this month. These results are all from 1/2 and 1/3:



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Old 04-01-2014, 03:24 PM   #6871
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
You should read the thread...Heck, just read THIS PAGE...before you ask a question that has been discussed already (and is pretty much the raison d'etre of this whole thread).

Sorry if this sounds harsh, but....
only Murican in this here thread
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Old 04-01-2014, 05:51 PM   #6872
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
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i feel like making a graph of my march results.

it was a seriously sick (good) month.
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Old 04-01-2014, 07:56 PM   #6873
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
i feel like making a graph of my march results.

it was a seriously sick (good) month.
same here but whenever I post graphs I get doomswitched. put in some decent hours too which worked out well..
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Old 04-01-2014, 09:14 PM   #6874
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

wj94,

what is your secret to booking big winning sessions?

i must be doing something wrong. i win about 75% of my sessions (2/3), my avg. loss is about the same as yours but my avg win is only half of yours.
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Old 04-01-2014, 10:32 PM   #6875
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wj94,

what is your secret to booking big winning sessions?

i must be doing something wrong. i win about 75% of my sessions (2/3), my avg. loss is about the same as yours but my avg win is only half of yours.
No secret...find the deepest tables, punish the limpers, play most of your big pots in position, flop a set here and there, apply max pressure with combo draws.
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