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Old 03-24-2014, 10:31 PM   #6801
The_Black_Swan
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
All of them except one depending on how bad the other player is.

On average the casino is taking $100 / hour from a $1/$2 table. So if you have someone buying in at an average rate of 1 BI / hour ($200 / hour) then everyone else at the table can average $11/hour or 5.5bb / hour. If you have two whales averaging $150/hour each in losses then the remaining 8 players can make $25/hour or 12.5bb / hour. It really just depends on how much other people are punting stacks.
Ok, I can understand your hypothetical, but how realistic/likely is this? Seems a very optimistic scenario to me. I am talking about on average over the long run, do you need to be the best player at the table to make money, or can you be second or third best? Also, even if you are the best, is it possible (realistically, not hypothetically) to still lose money because you are not beating the rake?
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:14 PM   #6802
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yes, it is 100% possible to be playing a in game where you are the best but everyone is solid. And the whole table is losing the the rake, including the best person.

If that's the case, though, you 100% need a table change.

If you're not at a table where the 3rd best person could be winning money, then it's likely that you should be looking for a different table.
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:32 PM   #6803
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
Yes, it is 100% possible to be playing a in game where you are the best but everyone is solid. And the whole table is losing the the rake, including the best person.

If that's the case, though, you 100% need a table change.

If you're not at a table where the 3rd best person could be winning money, then it's likely that you should be looking for a different table.
How long does it take you to determine whether you need a table change? Lately I have been forming an opinion after the first 30 minutes and then waiting another 30 minutes to see if things change or my suspicion was confirmed.

The first thing I want to see is effective stacks of 100+ BB for the majority of players. If stack sizes look good I want to see a moderately loose and non-nitty table where most flops are going 2-3 way. If that's the case I'll usually ask for the seat change button once I figure out where the action is is concentrated.

Is there anything else I should be considering here? I'm amazed at how many people just don't take the initiative in seat changing / table changing. Maybe if you are a rec player you wouldn't care but I look at this as a business and am trying to maximize my ROI. It seems to be one of the best tools in your arsenal for helping your win rate.
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Old 03-25-2014, 12:17 AM   #6804
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sometimes I know as soon as the floor points me to a table that I want a table change.

The presence of either tough players, tight/nit regs, or otherwise "known" bad spots will tip me off. If the table dynamic is otherwise bad, either due to the style of play or the stacks on the table, I'll ask for one within about an hour. When players leave or get replaced I'll re-asses that evaluation. Sometimes it only takes one new player to change the entire dynamic.

The problem is that there isn't always a better game to move to. At least in my local rooms there aren't many tables running, and a quick walk around the room usually reveals a couple of tables that appear effectively the same as the one I'm on.
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Old 03-25-2014, 01:16 AM   #6805
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

I think about 13-15bbs/hour is possible for the bestest of players for a game with 100bb cap with a rake of 5% up to $5 max. However there are tons of variables that can affect winrate like what time of day/what days are being played, table selection and seat selection, juiciness of the player pool, ect.
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Old 03-25-2014, 01:31 AM   #6806
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

About tree fiddy
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Old 03-25-2014, 04:40 AM   #6807
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

In deepish 1/2 games I definitely think $28/hr is possible. It's a stellar winrate obv, but in deep games against weak player pools, a talented player can do it. I haven't played 1/2 in a while, but my winrate 1/2 is about that over 400 hour (still small sample obv) at a certain pokerroom
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:29 AM   #6808
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Sometimes I know as soon as the floor points me to a table that I want a table change.

The presence of either tough players, tight/nit regs, or otherwise "known" bad spots will tip me off. If the table dynamic is otherwise bad, either due to the style of play or the stacks on the table, I'll ask for one within about an hour. When players leave or get replaced I'll re-asses that evaluation. Sometimes it only takes one new player to change the entire dynamic.

The problem is that there isn't always a better game to move to. At least in my local rooms there aren't many tables running, and a quick walk around the room usually reveals a couple of tables that appear effectively the same as the one I'm on.
This is very true, especially if you tend to start playing in the morning hours as games get started. My practice is to put in a request to move "to the new game" or another existing game as soon as possible....that is after they fill the game being seated on. I find that the floor is pretty responsive to this and also appreciates the fact that you are considering the needs of all games when asking.

Most of the time, if you are a regular in any cardroom, you can deduce the quality of the table with a quick glance. Familiar faces, stack sizes, any action occurring at the moment, and other available games can only take a moment to conclude that you want to move.
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Old 03-25-2014, 06:17 PM   #6809
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

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Originally Posted by daniel9861 View Post
I think about 13-15bbs/hour is possible for the bestest of players for a game with 100bb cap with a rake of 5% up to $5 max. However there are tons of variables that can affect winrate like what time of day/what days are being played, table selection and seat selection, juiciness of the player pool, ect.



This, barring some very unusual circumstances.
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Old 03-25-2014, 06:22 PM   #6810
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About tree fiddy
How was this not the first response?
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Old 03-25-2014, 06:41 PM   #6811
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

I am just going to interject that dealers are know it alls about everything but they tend to know very little about anything especially poker (ie. winrates, who is good, who is bad, how to play etc).

14bbs/hr is achievable at higher levels by the best of the best (no tilt...ever). I think it might be impossible to do so at 1/2 in the casino I play simply because of the rake which is relatively higher the smaller you play ($5 +$1 drop) and too often the games are shallow (min buyin is $100, 50bbs) and villains are too often nursing a 20bb or 30bb stack. Not to mention that 1/2 games tend to be limpy limpy which results in less hands per hour.
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Old 03-25-2014, 06:50 PM   #6812
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

A $1/2 game with $300 max BI and $4-5 rake should be beatable for 15bb/hour by a good player. I know at least a handful of friends winning more than that.
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Old 03-25-2014, 07:00 PM   #6813
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The problem with beating $1/2 for $30/hr is that you are playing too low.
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Old 03-25-2014, 07:10 PM   #6814
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

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The problem with beating $1/2 for $30/hr is that you are playing too low.
Probably, but the $2/5 game at my local casino is usually horrible with 3-4 solid LAGs that play for a living, 3-4 super nits, and the occasional fish. In the $1/2 game everyone sucks, so it's like going to the ATM with no variance. Life expenses also make $2/5 downswings suck a lot more.
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:10 PM   #6815
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I very much doubt that you are running into 3-4 solid winning lags at one table at 2-5. Where in the country do you play.
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:20 PM   #6816
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What makes even less sense is that his local is Red Rock in Vegas.
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:35 PM   #6817
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I very much doubt that you are running into 3-4 solid winning lags at one table at 2-5. Where in the country do you play.
Yes there are 3-4 very solid players that are in the 2/5 game there almost every day. Mostly play at red rock. Anyone who plays there should know who they are. One has $1M+ tourney cashes, they're all rolled for and play 5/T, and are all very good at playing deep and putting you in tough spots. None of that happens at 1/2. There's actually at least 5 now that I think about it. The "icebox" from Matt Moores Another Kid Another Dream post has also been playing there regularly past few weeks. Heard she never folds and plays super aggro but I'm sure there's a method to her madness.

Last edited by wj94; 03-25-2014 at 08:43 PM.
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Old 03-25-2014, 08:57 PM   #6818
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Sure makes a lot of sense that a well rolled 5/10 player is choosing to play 2/5 in Red Rock as his regular game.
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:03 PM   #6819
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I just counted 21 games running in Vegas that are 2/5 or higher, 1 in Red Rock.

If the guy is well rolled, obviously good, and that there are 3 other "tough LAG regs" there, why would he play there?
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Old 03-25-2014, 09:11 PM   #6820
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I just counted 21 games running in Vegas that are 2/5 or higher, 1 in Red Rock.

If the guy is well rolled, obviously good, and that there are 3 other "tough LAG regs" there, why would he play there?
I don't know, ask them. They're all friends, maybe they like the challenge of taking each other's money. When you live right near the casino, driving 20 minutes to the strip and 20 minutes back seems less attractive. The RR 2/5 game is the worst in town 90% of the time.
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Old 03-25-2014, 10:22 PM   #6821
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If it's generally the largest game running at that casino it makes sense that it's not that good.

LMAO @ not driving 20 minutes to a casino. FML, I have to drive 1hr 20 minutes lol.
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Old 03-26-2014, 07:24 AM   #6822
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Yes there are 3-4 very solid players that are in the 2/5 game there almost every day. Mostly play at red rock. Anyone who plays there should know who they are. One has $1M+ tourney cashes, they're all rolled for and play 5/T, and are all very good at playing deep and putting you in tough spots. None of that happens at 1/2. There's actually at least 5 now that I think about it. The "icebox" from Matt Moores Another Kid Another Dream post has also been playing there regularly past few weeks. Heard she never folds and plays super aggro but I'm sure there's a method to her madness.
Wait your in vegas?? You have a million options, go to bellagio and crush 2-5

Its prolly worth the drive to go from making $20/hr to $50/hr imo

And i still really doubt the red rock $2-5 is as tough as you say it is. Just doesnt make any sense for crushers to all be playing together on the same table of $2-5 when they live in vegas of all places.

It would be a total waste of time if they really are pro
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Old 03-26-2014, 07:56 AM   #6823
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So far ive logged 500 hours of 2-3-5 100bbcap nl at $50/hr
Got another 400ish hours before that of 2-4 at $40/hr

Hoping to move into 2-3-5deepstack ($1k buyin) and/or 5-T permanently in the next few months.

On average i spent 3-4 months at each level, my journey starting in aug-sept last year. I skipped 1-2 and started straight at 2-4. In the beginning I had a difficult learning curve where i spewed off ~20buyins and nearly went busto but eventually improved my game.

Things are looking bright for 2014. Hope it keeps going well!

Last edited by HappyLuckBox; 03-26-2014 at 08:08 AM.
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Old 03-26-2014, 07:58 AM   #6824
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Wait your in vegas?? You have a million options, go to bellagio and crush 2-5

Its prolly worth the drive to go from making $20/hr to $50/hr imo

And i still really doubt the red rock $2-5 is as tough as you say it is. Just doesnt make any sense for crushers to all be playing together on the same table of $2-5 when they live in vegas of all places.

It would be a total waste of time if they really are pro
Do you mean go to any on-strip Vegas casino

Or specifically Bellagio you think has a soft 2/5 game?
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Old 03-26-2014, 08:13 AM   #6825
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Do you mean go to any on-strip Vegas casino

Or specifically Bellagio you think has a soft 2/5 game?
I meant any strip game. I dont play in vegas normally so i cant say where is best
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