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Old 03-24-2014, 12:00 AM   #6776
PairPressure
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by captainondeck View Post
Yup at 5.5bb/hr that is sustainable and also could probably be increased if some leaks could be plugged. Generally speaking 10bb/hr is the "crushing it" line. Although 340 hours is a pretty small sample size to determine wr to any degree of certainty.

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So 10bb/hr is crushing the game. Wow that seems high but I guess there are players that can get that win rate playing live.
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Old 03-24-2014, 01:49 AM   #6777
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Originally Posted by PairPressure View Post
So 10bb/hr is crushing the game. Wow that seems high but I guess there are players that can get that win rate playing live.
What is the rake structure like at your casino? Because honestly 10bb/hr at 1/2 is pretty reasonable in most player pools.

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Old 03-24-2014, 05:52 AM   #6778
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
The game itself doesn't seem sustainable.

100bb at 2/4 is $400.

35 hands per hour at $8/hand = $280 an hour removed from the table.

$5 x 10 seats = $50, and divide that by 5 = $10/hr.

Combining both, we're talking about ~$300 removed from the table every hour.

So if everyone starts with 100bb, even without doing anything, almost one player drops out of the game automatically every hour.

Playing this game is not smart.
I've got a reasonably big sample and I would say it is beatable but nowhere near 10bb/hr.
Btw it plays 9 handed and players not allows to tip fwiw
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:03 AM   #6779
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For a laugh ..
5/5 game 1s don't play so the rake is rounded up.


Last edited by 1968; 03-24-2014 at 06:08 AM.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:06 AM   #6780
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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For a laugh ..
wow. those lowest games have to be unbeatable.
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Old 03-24-2014, 06:15 AM   #6781
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Ldo
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:10 AM   #6782
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possible win rate at $1-$2?

Playing at Horseshoe Cleveland on March 16, a reg asked a dealer about a mutual friend, who from what I could tell recently moved to Florida to play poker after destroying the locals.

The dealer said this woman wasn't doing as well in Florida as she had been in Cleveland, but was willing to trade a few dollars/hour for more games, tournaments, and nicer weather.

Apparently, she had been winning $28/hour playing $1-$2 at Horseshoe Cleveland. The mutual acquaintance and I were dubious.

Is this kind of win rate possible? That's basically averaging a buy in per 10-hour grind.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:18 AM   #6783
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quick question for anyone that plays tournaments:

If you are playing in a reentry tournament (not rebuy, because you don't get your same seat, and you are treated like a brand new entry) and you enter it twice, but you cash, would you count your entries as two and there for have an ITM %of 100% but a cost of 2x the buy in?
Or would you consider it two entries, and an ITM % of 50% but the buy in was still 1x.

I realize that it's all just screwing with numbers, and the end result is really the same, but I didn't know what was standard.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:22 AM   #6784
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

I think that's more than possible; that's really not even that high.

I'm currently doing about $50/hour at $1-2, have just had my first losing session of the month (-$50 over 10 hours). This is mainly because I play against the same people all the time, I have history on everyone; at this point, the people around me may as well be playing poker with their cards faced up. You get these old regs who have been playing the same way for 10+ years, with no ability to adjust, easily put on tilt, and very much luck-oriented. These players don't see the game as means to make money; when they sit down at a poker table, their buyin, in their minds, is considered a sunk cost as opposed to an investment.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:28 AM   #6785
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

I think when talking about win rates at live poker we need to more concerned with sample size first and hr/$ second. I have a friend who plays 10 hours a week or so and looooves to call me up and brag about his 152/hr week.

And to answer your question, no.

to accumulate a sufficient sample size at 1/2 considering you see 25 to 35 hands per hour would take a very long time. furthermore, somebody who is destroying 1/2 for 28/hr is most likely to move up in stakes for more profit before such a sample size can be gathered.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:29 AM   #6786
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

First things first: there's a whole thread that is just about win rates.

This question would really be better suited to be asked in that section.

It can be found here.

Beyond that, if you assume that there is a mostly normal distribution of win rates among winning players (only winning players, not winners and losers) and that the average person wins 6bb/hour at 1/2. And the standard deviation is 2.5bb/hour, then that's 3.2 standard deviations above the mean, which would give it about .05% chance of happening.

So, if she's better than 99.95% of all other winning poker players, then sure she is likely crushing the game for 28/hour. But it's unlikely.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:31 AM   #6787
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

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Originally Posted by kkotov100 View Post
I think that's more than possible; that's really not even that high.

I'm currently doing about $50/hour at $1-2, have just had my first losing session of the month (-$50 over 10 hours). This is mainly because I play against the same people all the time, I have history on everyone; at this point, the people around me may as well be playing poker with their cards faced up. You get these old regs who have been playing the same way for 10+ years, with no ability to adjust, easily put on tilt, and very much luck-oriented. These players don't see the game as means to make money; when they sit down at a poker table, their buyin, in their minds, is considered a sunk cost as opposed to an investment.
Congrats on the win streak so far!

Sample size bro?
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:33 AM   #6788
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I consider it two buy ins. when inputting stats I count it as two entries.

It would look like 50% itm. But like you said its the same thing in the end.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:40 AM   #6789
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

I would imagine that a woman with the right skill set would have a higher potential win-rate than a man with the same skill set.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:40 AM   #6790
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

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Originally Posted by kkotov100 View Post
I think that's more than possible; that's really not even that high.

I'm currently doing about $50/hour at $1-2, have just had my first losing session of the month (-$50 over 10 hours). This is mainly because I play against the same people all the time, I have history on everyone; at this point, the people around me may as well be playing poker with their cards faced up. You get these old regs who have been playing the same way for 10+ years, with no ability to adjust, easily put on tilt, and very much luck-oriented. These players don't see the game as means to make money; when they sit down at a poker table, their buyin, in their minds, is considered a sunk cost as opposed to an investment.
I think this is an anomaly. But then again I play mostly in AC and clubs in NYC so I think is win rate isn't attainable the casinos and clubs that I play in because I play against many different people. Not trying to hate but $50 hourly rate just seems it of the norm and probably unsustainable.
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Old 03-24-2014, 08:42 AM   #6791
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2 different entries for a ITM of 50% is standard.

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Old 03-24-2014, 11:07 AM   #6792
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
First things first: there's a whole thread that is just about win rates.

This question would really be better suited to be asked in that section.

It can be found here.

Beyond that, if you assume that there is a mostly normal distribution of win rates among winning players (only winning players, not winners and losers) and that the average person wins 6bb/hour at 1/2. And the standard deviation is 2.5bb/hour, then that's 3.2 standard deviations above the mean, which would give it about .05% chance of happening.

So, if she's better than 99.95% of all other winning poker players, then sure she is likely crushing the game for 28/hour. But it's unlikely.
Those are some pretty interesting assumptions you're making there. Any basis in empirical data or theory?
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Old 03-24-2014, 11:25 AM   #6793
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

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Those are some pretty interesting assumptions you're making there. Any basis in empirical data or theory?
Nope!

But it it generally agreed that people who crush the game (so figure that is top 5% of the population) beat the game for 10+ bb / hour, which is what my assumption suggest. And most break even players eventually bust out or quit, and those that don't tend to fall behind the curve and eventually turn into losing players because many break even player don't study the game enough. So, these players are not a large group as they constantly on the move. Most people in this category slowly shift towards better winners (and move toward the middle of the 6bb / hour curve) or drop out and down into the long term losers section.

I'm not saying that my numbers are right, just that from what I've read, gleaned, and experienced they seem to fit well. So I use them as a base.

If OP want some more detailed and rigrous anlysis then maybe he should actually read the thread that is completely devoted to talking about win rates.
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Old 03-24-2014, 12:01 PM   #6794
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Irtm, under your assumption of win rate being distributed normally among winning players, there would be more 6 bb/hr winners than 1 bb/hr winners. It would be better to think of the win rates of all players as being normally distributed. Not sure if this is a good Assumption either, but the probability of a player having a given win rate will definitely decrease as the win rate increases.
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:32 PM   #6795
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by kkotov100 View Post
I think that's more than possible; that's really not even that high.

I'm currently doing about $50/hour at $1-2, have just had my first losing session of the month (-$50 over 10 hours). This is mainly because I play against the same people all the time, I have history on everyone; at this point, the people around me may as well be playing poker with their cards faced up. You get these old regs who have been playing the same way for 10+ years, with no ability to adjust, easily put on tilt, and very much luck-oriented. These players don't see the game as means to make money; when they sit down at a poker table, their buyin, in their minds, is considered a sunk cost as opposed to an investment.
I wish I ran well enough to think that $50 an hour was sustainable.

What was your biggest downswing and how many hours have you played?
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:37 PM   #6796
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

15bb/hr is possible at almost every $1/2 table for the top players. The problem is the best players move up usually
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Old 03-24-2014, 09:56 PM   #6797
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Re: possible win rate at $1-$2?

10 big blinds the most you can make over the long run if you play perfect. All other stories are fish dreams that never come true. For a 1/2 NL with $200 buy in if you play long enough and are the best player at your table you can expect to make $20/hour.

This has been prooven many time over and over by my friends Izmet Fekaly and Jonny Downtown with their computer sims and live play. Ten big blinds per hour in no-limit. That's the solid norm, like Josef Stalin was saying in 1942 "Not a step back!"
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:07 PM   #6798
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many people can be profitable at a table at a time?

How many mistakes can you make and still be profitable? For example, say you call a $10 bet into a $10 pot and are only good there 1/6 of the time, that's a $5 loss. That seems like a tiny mistake but if crushing it is $20/hr (at 1/2), 4 mistakes per hour would wipe you out. Can you still be profitable if every other player at the table is making the same mistakes?
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:16 PM   #6799
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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How many people can be profitable at a table at a time?
All of them except one depending on how bad the other player is.

On average the casino is taking $100 / hour from a $1/$2 table. So if you have someone buying in at an average rate of 1 BI / hour ($200 / hour) then everyone else at the table can average $11/hour or 5.5bb / hour. If you have two whales averaging $150/hour each in losses then the remaining 8 players can make $25/hour or 12.5bb / hour. It really just depends on how much other people are punting stacks.
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Old 03-24-2014, 10:18 PM   #6800
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9 out of 10 can be profitable if there is one player losing a lot.
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