How many hours at live to determine if you are a winning player? With nearly 200 hours my WR still jumps all over the place depending on the session. Currently running well at $40/hr over my last 50 hours.

maybe 600 hours but I just wouldn't worry about winrate.

My Guess: 95% winrate accuracy brackets +- ~$10 at 1000 hours live 2/5nl?

Any idea how to mathematically calculate this, and anyone else's take?

Can be done but 1000 hours is like 20,000 to 30,000 hands. I'd suggest looking playing around with this.

Just about hit the 1000 hour mark with PokerJournal. Didn't think early w/r was sustainable, but have been averaging a pretty consistent 15bb/hr at 2/5.

Granted my local casino is a bit behind the times when it comes to poker theorists and innovative minds, so not fully sure if results would be similar in Vegas/AC (granted I wouldn't be playing 2/5 if there was a bigger option, but still...)

Anyway, here are some quick screen grabs of data.









I'll go more in depth if anyone cares when time permits and answer any questions I can. Have already posted a bit about my style earlier ITT.

Sick results

Very nice work wj94 and King Fish! Thanks for the link 11t

Thanks for the link 11t. Well done kingfish

How do I figure out my standard deviation? I don't have poker journal, just an excel sheet with session results.

nasty results king fish. That is absolutely crushing. Well done sir

Congrats.

That's an amazing rate over that sample in hold em Any plo?

Yea I think it would be 1.96*std/sqrt(n), n = number of hours played

I use this post

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/25.../#post12876896

and I think it gives the same number as poker journal

Where do you play?

Lol. Sick 70% winning sessions - do they just close their eyes and push their chips around???

It's always been my impression that without playing super long average sessions, winning players tend to have somewhere around 55:45 or 60:40 wins:losses. (Looks like you average 3.6 hours/session, which isn't really that long.)

55 seems low. I'm at 64% over a reasonably relevant sample. Average session is 6-7 hours. In theory, the longer your session, the more likely your % winning sessions rises. Assuming you don't tilt. =]. That being said. My longest session was 17 hours and I got smoked.

I think good players should be around 65-75% winning sessions. I think I had 72% over like 300 sessions last year. Around 67% this year

How in the hell do you avg $70+ hr 1/2 in that sample. Did you seperate the red sea? Walk on water?

North east US. Easy enough to figure out my primary casino from posting history (when not trolling BBV )

Answer to part A: pretty much yes.
Results somewhat skewed by 1/2 (which included a 20- game WS and another in the high teens). 2/5 WR is about 66%.

Season averages are also probably skewed by 1/2, as I generally leave the table when a 2/5 gets going and sessions there tend to be shorter.

I usually only play 1/2 while waiting on a 2/5 seat, and this is the softest 1/2 I have ever played. Hands are played fairly face up.

Also I am quite aggro in general in 2/5 (as the SD seems to show), and players just assume I play the same game every day no adjustments. In truth I know the players well enough now to tailor my game to specific tables, players, instances etc.

At 1/2 I generally just build lots of small pots IP, abandon as needed, then jam and get called (because of false image) when I have the nuts. A decent number of players fear me because they know every confrontation could be playing for stacks and they let me walk over them. Others use that perception to try to get it all in with me light as they think I'll just call everything with any pair or draw.

Truth is the room is in a bit of a poker time warp and the players think they are exploiting my tendencies when in fact it is the other way around. I even get bumhunted sometimes by absolutely awful players who just don't grasp or understand what I am doing and how I manage to be so consistently "lucky."

I do what I can to give each player the desired image of me he/she wants. But reality and perception have no real correlation to each other. I consider this "marketing."

While I don't think the WR is sustainable over a significant sample, I do think $50/hr is doable AT THIS PARTICULAR CASINO.

It really is like playing them with their cards exposed. It takes a decent amount of bad luck to lose at 1/2 there, IMO.

King Fish,

Can you elaborate on the building small pots in position game?

There is a 5/10 player that does this when seated at my 2/5 tables and he absolutely crushes. Just like you describe people think he is a spewer/fish and people do actually bumhunt him. But from what I've seen (and from what a dealer friend says) he is one of the top players in the room.

Say there's 2 limps to him, he'll make it $15 with like 88/JT type hands. This is 2/5 and even if the standard raise at the table is 25-30 he still does this. Why is he doing this? (Yes I realize I can exploit this...and I do...but if the rest of the table isn't, what are the other benefits?)

I get the whole "building pots in position with speculative/medium value hands can't be a bad thing", but how is it superior to iso raising $25/$30?

Im sure he means he raises ip with speculative hands but doesnt vary his raise size according to his hand strength. If he is making "pot sweetner" raises that is very easily exploitable

Here is my theory: The deeper you get into a hand, the more skill becomes a factor. With 2 cards, the decision process is rather simple: Do I have a good hand? If yes raise, if not fold. If I think my hand is really good then let's get as much money in the pot as possible!
Anyone can do this. It doesn't take much skill, just basic poker knowledge and little if any hand-reading analysis. Everyone gets cards pre flop. This is a standard situation to most players. The difference in skill from the best player in the game to an average player will not be very large.

On the flop again decisions are relatively simple. Do I have a good hand? Do I have a good draw? How many outs do I have if I think in behind and am I priced in to draw? Will he fold if I bet?

When a pot is blown up preflop, especially in a 100 BB game, then many of these decisions have already been made for the player, and math can dictate what to do. An average player with basic comprehension may make mistakes here, but they generally won't be egregious especially if math tells him how he should proceed. Again, these is a situation many poker players are familiar with at all levels. Often, this is where the hand ends.

The turn is where generally people don't have as much experience. Especially at lower levels. If the pot here is large then well it can really be simple math what to do. But if the pot was kept small, and stacks are significant, this is where a more experienced player can force average/bad players to make mistakes. It's unfamiliar territory for many. Pair plus flush draw on the turn in a 20 BB pot with 100BB effective stack sizes or TPTK similar Scenario facing sudden pressure what do u do? The answer I find most often is "I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT TO DO HERE OMG I DONT KNOW HERE IS SOME SPAZZ PLAY GO AHEAD LEAVE ME ALONE NOW!!

Of course I'm simplifying the above, but you get my gist. My standard opening raise (and again I do adjust to tables) is 3 BB from ep, and 3-4BB mid position. I want callers, I invite callers. I'm cool with making a horribad fold/call with AA OOP in a small pot on an uncoordinated board if I have to. (That again is built into my game. I afford myself lots of small mistakes.) On the flop, in position, I will often price in the flush draws. 20 BB pot, 2 spades, I have an OP? 9bb bet. Here u go I invite you to hit. (This is where a lot of my variance comes in but that is built into my game).

I just gave him appropriate odds (sort of, more on that another time). I want to get him relaxed and comfortable so I can take him out of his element on the later streets. I am a very good hand/person reader and usually know where I am at in a hand, so this affords me that luxury. I play to my strengths and skills. (If those don't happen to be your skill set, playing this type of game is suicide... Stick to math and fundamentals, u won't go wrong.)

I like to keep pots small, watch and observe, the go for the killshot when the time is right. This also means I make lots of bad folds and lots of bad calls. Again, it is built into my game. When I truly don't know where I am in a hand, my default becomes "screw it, jam and let the other guy figure it out." (Or when pot is small fold and eff it.)

If the pot is small and I am OOP, I'll often fold to marginal pressure an "let" the other player walk all over me. Or at least let him think I am his weak tight post-flop bitch.

I often let good hands in bad spots go preflop when OOP (ie I rarely call OOP 3 bets with AJs even with good odds, same with mid pairs... Much more likely to call with 56s if I think my call will induce a waterfall effect. Somewhat standard I think but ppl assume I call anything with any two. "You would have called with this hand!" Is something I hear a lot. And quite frankly it couldn't be farther than the truth.

I also show my cards when it suite me. As I said earlier I do what I can to give the players and table the image of me they want me to have. But I show only what I want you to see.

These moves generally don't work in higher games generally when people are more experienced post flop, and people are able to see thru my bull****. And online you Wil absolutely get crushed (obv.)

Also to my advantage is that if u never played with me and were to profile me, you would assume I was a goofy spewy fish just waiting to give his money away. So that gives me another slight EV edge. Watch my game and my bet sizing without paying careful attention and yup, I'm a fish.

Sorry for rambling and for all the typos that are likely to be above. Writing this on a cell phone while waiting for someone and my mind isn't a very linear place in general. Hopefully I answered the question at some point in my rant.

I also want to add to above that obviously I have different gears and speeds. If I think I have an edge in a hand, no matter how marginal, and I can jam all my chips into the middle I will do it (example pair+FD against an OP, I have little qualms 4/5/6 bet shoving for stacks here. Prefer not to be the one calling off but generally will if I have to.)

People know that any hand in which I am involved can quickly become for stacks, and I use that to both get action and affect the action as I want it to happen. (Also because of this I often get lots of free cards when I want them ).

As far as they know, I have no fear and little regard for my money or yours.

Must be nice to run like god

He plays higher.