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Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
View Poll Results: What is your Win Rate in terms of BB per Housr
Less than 0 (losing)
5 6.41%
0-2.5
0 0%
2.5-5
6 7.69%
5-7.5
8 10.26%
7.5-10
15 19.23%
10+
26 33.33%
Not enough sample size/I don't know
18 23.08%

03-02-2014 , 08:47 AM
Telling us your all in bad beats don't really help with anything

But yes a 10 BI downswing is possible. Just keep getting your money in good. It will turn around. Try to minimize the losses as much as you can.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 08:50 AM
Sorry the typing seems to be jumbled. It won't give more space.

A few times I have shoved All-in and had callers with better hands. Like 10/10 vs JJ.

With me buying in short stack, $100, I am check calling flush and straight draws and when I hit I shove. I have found because I am ss, most will call if I semi-bluff shove so no point in doing that.

Last edited by Jazzed23; 03-02-2014 at 09:00 AM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 08:51 AM
Yea sometimes you'll have stretches where none of your big hands hold up.

Just keep getting your money in good. Eventually you'll go on a sick heater where everything holds.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 08:53 AM
Guys, sorry I shouldn't have said I am down 10 BI.

I am BREAK EVEN (up/down ~1-3 BI). $100 stack in $1/2.

But it just feels I am losing alot of big all-ins, when I have the best of it.

I guess those hands stick out cause there are so many loose callers who hit.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 08:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dumbluck13
EDIT: Also, if your go-to method for beating a 1/2 game is to get into 50-50 coinflip after coinflip, then you are doing it Very VERY Wrong. You have no one to blame for putting yourself into those spots if you can't find better than 50-50s vs average 1/2 opponents.
No, I'm not even playing for flips. Usually if there is dead $ on the table, like someone raises $10, 3 callers, and I got AK, then I'll shove it for the squeeze play. And inevitably I get callers with small pairs, AJ, you name it.

I shove with A/10, guy calls with A/4 suited.

Same when I have AK and 4/4 calls. if it's limped around I don't do that, only if there's already $30-50 in play already and I'm last to act.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HiroNakamara

BTW - what is your typical buy-in? Where I play, a typical buy-in for 1/2 ranges from 300 to 600. So losing 6k would be an indicator that you're playing bad. But if you're buying in for 50-100. You're probably experiencing some variance combined with bad play.

I am buying in $100 for $1/2. At my casino the buy-in is $100-$300 for $1/2.

As said before I am Break Even, up/down 1-3 BI's depending on a session.

And playing super tight, no bluffing...abc poker.

I am getting paid off for hands, like today limped all around. I have 2/2. K/10/2 flop. Overbet $25 on flop, guy raises to $50 and I shove for $100. Called, he has AK and loses. So guys will call with weaker hands.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:14 AM
For short stack $100 at $1/2. What's the best way to play JJ-AA if it's limped?

If I 3 bet too big, like $40-50 to a $10-20 raise, most everyone folds.

If I raise $15-20 and get 3 callers, then often I muck if there is alot of action or a wet board post-flop. I've shoved with 1 over and sometimes the guy has it and calls.

Any advice for playing the premium hands pre-flop?
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:17 AM
without further context, your frequent shoving comes across as a bit spewy.

also, sounds like you're attempting a short stack strategy, which is more high variance.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:26 AM
When we are talking about variance and downswings, i truly believe for many players that is also a part of playing with bigger risk, putting yourself in too many marginal situations and its a bad circle when your losing. The bad circle can often make sure you keep playing your B or C game, and/or keep putting yourself in more marginal situations than you would normally do.

One of the things i focus on when i face long breakeven stretches or downswings (like i am right now), its to analyze my own game from an honest view as i possibly can. If you can manage to keep focus and play your best game (and get your money in good) it will for sure turn around. This is where dicipline and patience really comes into play and can be a virtual gold mine compared to other players who lacks those abilites.

Not to forget that i sometimes can bounce on the fact that other opponents put me on tilt after getting drawn out on in a big pot, when i am actually not tilting.

Two days ago i lost a big confrontation when my top set lost to my opponents flushdraw when he binked on the river, in a 600 BB pot. That hurt quite alot at the time, because i had been waiting to get that aggro monkey to put all his money in with bad shape against me, and that did happen.

Very next hand after losing that hand i rebuy for 150 BB and i pick up KK. I limp in UTG +2. Raise in front of me and 3 callers. Back to me i waste noe time to announce allin, and the original raiser instacalls and tables AJ

Last edited by Gilmour; 03-02-2014 at 09:32 AM.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:35 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan
without further context, your frequent shoving comes across as a bit spewy.

also, sounds like you're attempting a short stack strategy, which is more high variance.

No, I'm not frequently shoving. As I said, I will limp with pairs 99 and under, and only raise with 10-10 and above.

Because I am short stacked, say there is $30-50 on table in calls. If I have $100 behind, it's pointless to just raise to $50 and fold, so I usually just shove if I feel I have the best hand. Which I often do, or it's a 50/50.

But I'm only doing it with dead $. Should I tighten up even more and not do that with AK, AQ, 10-10? I mean I feel I'm very nitty already.

Good point, short stack is more variance.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:48 AM
Not to keep this conversation going any longer than it needs to go...

But last thing I'll say to you is that you should just play full stacked and get better at poker

Read stickies in micro full ring and try to implement one new thing to your game at a time
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 09:50 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424
Not to keep this conversation going any longer than it needs to go...

But last thing I'll say to you is that you should just play full stacked and get better at poker

Read stickies in micro full ring and try to implement one new thing to your game at a time

Not to forget the "best of" collection stickied in this forum, many threads and posters there have helped my game and approach to poker tremendously. Some serious gold there.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 11:37 AM
Jazzed,

Post your HH in new threads in this forum. Not here in the WBF thread.

Poker history is replete with stories of good players on huge downswings. 10BI downswing at NLHE is not only possible, but likely.

Sounds to me like you just need to open a 2+2Bank account so that you can better track and invest your G-bucks.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 01:09 PM
FWIW if you are truly short stacking it should be $60.

But if you are raising $20 pre with JJ-AA and getting 3+ callers you are printing money dude. Shove. Every. Single. Flop.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 02:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzed23
How many Buy-Ins up or down would be a good indication of a normal swing?

Seems like I"ve been getting my $ all in as 50-50 or better but have hit like 2 in 10.

So would a downswing of 10 BI be considered just running bad?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzed23
Ok the past few ALL-In's:

Hero: Villian: Flop

AK off vs 10/10 lost
Q8 vs Q/10 Q/10/x 2
KK vs 99 All-in pre flop. 9 hits
QJ vs AA 108x
A "normal" downswing doesn't exist. It all depend on your winrate what kind of swings you can expect.

If you're getting flips a lot, your swings will be pretty big. However, with as many bad players as there are at LLSNL, you shouldn't be flipping very often.

If you are running bad in the sense of getting your money in with a lot of equity and losing, then downswings can be minimized with a good red line. Your red line can be massive at LLSNL.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 03:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KyddDynamite
A "normal" downswing doesn't exist. It all depend on your winrate what kind of swings you can expect.

If you're getting flips a lot, your swings will be pretty big. However, with as many bad players as there are at LLSNL, you shouldn't be flipping very often.

If you are running bad in the sense of getting your money in with a lot of equity and losing, then downswings can be minimized with a good red line. Your red line can be massive at LLSNL.
I disagree, redline is not a major component to beating llsnl
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 04:17 PM
I actually think redline is a pretty big component of a good player's win-rate at 2/5 NL.

More or less, I agree with Kydd's post about strong redline numbers mitigating run bad at 2/5 NL.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 04:32 PM
That would imply llsnl is not filled with a ton of calling stations, and we know the truth is quite the opposite.

The majority of your profit is always going to be showdown winnings, aka value town
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 05:12 PM
HLB,

You're going to be limiting your winrate with that kind of thinking. If you go into every hand with the mindset of "well, nobody folds any piece of the board", your development as a poker player is going to peak pretty quickly. Identifying good boards/targets for cbets, multi-street barrels, and floats are necessary skills if you want to maximize your winrate and mitigate the natural variance inherent in LLSNL due to small sample size.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 05:50 PM
Red line is a very large component of someone who crushes 2/5 nlh w/r. For abc straight foreword types who win at a marginal rate it clearly is not.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzed23
No, I'm not even playing for flips. Usually if there is dead $ on the table, like someone raises $10, 3 callers, and I got AK, then I'll shove it for the squeeze play. And inevitably I get callers with small pairs, AJ, you name it.

I shove with A/10, guy calls with A/4 suited.

Same when I have AK and 4/4 calls. if it's limped around I don't do that, only if there's already $30-50 in play already and I'm last to act.
I have to agree with others - your play sounds spewy.
Shoving in poker should be your last line of defense - not your first.
Since you're rebuying multiple times - why not buy-in for the full 300 and play poker? You'll have more chips to use to protect your big hands and more opportunities to bet/fold when you're beat.

As others said - your short stack shoving strategy is really a high variance game and actually encourages others to call you down lightly. Guys who do this in our games are rarely winning players because they treat the poker table like a roulette table and shove any time they hit a piece of the board. So others play to trap them and eventually felt them.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 06:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyLuckBox
That would imply llsnl is not filled with a ton of calling stations, and we know the truth is quite the opposite.

The majority of your profit is always going to be showdown winnings, aka value town
That does not imply that LLSNL is filled with something other than calling stations (though games seem to be moving in that direction).

No one is contesting that showdown is where the majority of your winnings come from, but the point of a winrate thread is, I'd assume, is to see what the highest attainable winrates are.
If you aren't worried about your redline you aren't going to reach you highest possible winrate.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 06:22 PM
I think the biggest thing with trying to increase your redline is that you are going to do some pretty stupid **** at the onset, but this is pretty true every time you work on changing your game.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 06:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ATsai
I actually think redline is a pretty big component of a good player's win-rate at 2/5 NL.

More or less, I agree with Kydd's post about strong redline numbers mitigating run bad at 2/5 NL.
how big a component redline is of total wr is game dependent.

regardless, having a strong redline does not mitigate run bad. You can run just as bad on your redline as you do on your green line.
Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Quote
03-02-2014 , 06:59 PM
Noob question: What's redline? On-line statistic I assume?

Also, @Jazzed
Don't forget, a good player will take more 'bad beats' per day than a bad player.
It's a fact.

If you count the number of times that you are 1 outted, two outted, 5 outted and 10 outted per day, and compare it to any other random person in the room who is worse than you, you will see that you get more 'bad beats' than they do.

There is a reason for this:
If you are playing well, you are putting your money in as an equity favorite more of the time, so you don't have a chance to put bad beats on other people. You are putting you self into spots where you can get 5 outted a lot because you are consistently 80% to win the pot.

This isn't to imply that in the long term you will win or lose any more or less as a % than someone else in the room, everyone will win 80% of the hands that they are 80% to win in the long run (or something very close) but in any given day you will take more beats than them because you can't put a bad beat on someone else if you are getting your money in good.
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