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Old 03-02-2014, 04:51 AM   #6526
HappyLuckBox
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Re: # of Buy-In Variance for 1/2

Ive had 1 10buyin downswing over the last 1000 hours.

It really shouldnt happen that often. And If you have a 20buyin downswing then you almost assuredly have major leaks or tilt
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Old 03-02-2014, 06:07 AM   #6527
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Re: # of Buy-In Variance for 1/2

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Originally Posted by Jazzed23 View Post
How many Buy-Ins up or down would be a good indication of a normal swing?

Seems like I"ve been getting my $ all in as 50-50 or better but have hit like 2 in 10.

So would a downswing of 10 BI be considered just running bad?
The truth is - there is no amount of buy-ins up or down that are considered a "normal swing." Cards sometimes favor you. Sometimes they don't.

But I couldn't agree more with other that say if you're getting all your money in as 50/50 or better, you're playing bad. On many occasions, I have jammed on the flop and turn (favored by 75% to win) - only to fold the river because I was (and knew that I was) beat.

If you have no room in your game for betting/folding or check/folding - then you will see bigger up and down swings. (You're also probably buying in too short.) IMO, poker is more a game of finesse where you're betting to cause your opponent to make mistakes - but you have to be willing to go with your reads and fold when it's obvious when you're beat - otherwise his poor play causes you to make mistakes.

BTW - what is your typical buy-in? Where I play, a typical buy-in for 1/2 ranges from 300 to 600. So losing 6k would be an indicator that you're playing bad. But if you're buying in for 50-100. You're probably experiencing some variance combined with bad play.
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Old 03-02-2014, 06:51 AM   #6528
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Re: # of Buy-In Variance for 1/2

Go to this website and plug in some numbers: http://pokerdope.com/poker-variance-calculator/

Replace BB with $ and 100 with hr. For number of hands just multiply the number of hours you want to simulate by 100. Results should be pretty eye opening.
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Old 03-02-2014, 07:25 AM   #6529
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To figure out whether you have leaks or just running bad, why dont you post a couple of big hands that you lost your BIs on? We can give you our opinions.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:37 AM   #6530
Jazzed23
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
Idk what you mean by that

10 BI downswing could be you just have huge leaks and are a losing player

But it could also be that you are running bad

No, I am playing ABC poker, very straightforward. No bluffs, limp calling pairs 9 and under.

Basically raising or 3 betting with the top 6-7 hands, AA,KK...

Trying to see the flop and getting my $ in good. Tonight shoved all in with 2 pair and got an open ender call me, 66% for me...of course he hits.

Also getting paid off when I hit sets and bet big, guys with TPTK or worse seem to call.

Could just be a very small sample size. I play 2-3 hours/session. probably 3-4x a week.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:42 AM   #6531
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Snowball2 View Post
To figure out whether you have leaks or just running bad, why dont you post a couple of big hands that you lost your BIs on? We can give you our opinions.
Ok the past few ALL-In's:

Hero: Villian: Flop

AK off vs 10/10 lost
Q8 vs Q/10 Q/10/x 2
KK vs 99 All-in pre flop. 9 hits
QJ vs AA 108x
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:47 AM   #6532
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Telling us your all in bad beats don't really help with anything

But yes a 10 BI downswing is possible. Just keep getting your money in good. It will turn around. Try to minimize the losses as much as you can.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:50 AM   #6533
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sorry the typing seems to be jumbled. It won't give more space.

A few times I have shoved All-in and had callers with better hands. Like 10/10 vs JJ.

With me buying in short stack, $100, I am check calling flush and straight draws and when I hit I shove. I have found because I am ss, most will call if I semi-bluff shove so no point in doing that.

Last edited by Jazzed23; 03-02-2014 at 09:00 AM.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:51 AM   #6534
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Yea sometimes you'll have stretches where none of your big hands hold up.

Just keep getting your money in good. Eventually you'll go on a sick heater where everything holds.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:53 AM   #6535
Jazzed23
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Guys, sorry I shouldn't have said I am down 10 BI.

I am BREAK EVEN (up/down ~1-3 BI). $100 stack in $1/2.

But it just feels I am losing alot of big all-ins, when I have the best of it.

I guess those hands stick out cause there are so many loose callers who hit.
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Old 03-02-2014, 08:58 AM   #6536
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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EDIT: Also, if your go-to method for beating a 1/2 game is to get into 50-50 coinflip after coinflip, then you are doing it Very VERY Wrong. You have no one to blame for putting yourself into those spots if you can't find better than 50-50s vs average 1/2 opponents.
No, I'm not even playing for flips. Usually if there is dead $ on the table, like someone raises $10, 3 callers, and I got AK, then I'll shove it for the squeeze play. And inevitably I get callers with small pairs, AJ, you name it.

I shove with A/10, guy calls with A/4 suited.

Same when I have AK and 4/4 calls. if it's limped around I don't do that, only if there's already $30-50 in play already and I'm last to act.
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:12 AM   #6537
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Re: # of Buy-In Variance for 1/2

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Originally Posted by HiroNakamara View Post

BTW - what is your typical buy-in? Where I play, a typical buy-in for 1/2 ranges from 300 to 600. So losing 6k would be an indicator that you're playing bad. But if you're buying in for 50-100. You're probably experiencing some variance combined with bad play.

I am buying in $100 for $1/2. At my casino the buy-in is $100-$300 for $1/2.

As said before I am Break Even, up/down 1-3 BI's depending on a session.

And playing super tight, no bluffing...abc poker.

I am getting paid off for hands, like today limped all around. I have 2/2. K/10/2 flop. Overbet $25 on flop, guy raises to $50 and I shove for $100. Called, he has AK and loses. So guys will call with weaker hands.
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:14 AM   #6538
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

For short stack $100 at $1/2. What's the best way to play JJ-AA if it's limped?

If I 3 bet too big, like $40-50 to a $10-20 raise, most everyone folds.

If I raise $15-20 and get 3 callers, then often I muck if there is alot of action or a wet board post-flop. I've shoved with 1 over and sometimes the guy has it and calls.

Any advice for playing the premium hands pre-flop?
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:17 AM   #6539
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without further context, your frequent shoving comes across as a bit spewy.

also, sounds like you're attempting a short stack strategy, which is more high variance.
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:26 AM   #6540
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

When we are talking about variance and downswings, i truly believe for many players that is also a part of playing with bigger risk, putting yourself in too many marginal situations and its a bad circle when your losing. The bad circle can often make sure you keep playing your B or C game, and/or keep putting yourself in more marginal situations than you would normally do.

One of the things i focus on when i face long breakeven stretches or downswings (like i am right now), its to analyze my own game from an honest view as i possibly can. If you can manage to keep focus and play your best game (and get your money in good) it will for sure turn around. This is where dicipline and patience really comes into play and can be a virtual gold mine compared to other players who lacks those abilites.

Not to forget that i sometimes can bounce on the fact that other opponents put me on tilt after getting drawn out on in a big pot, when i am actually not tilting.

Two days ago i lost a big confrontation when my top set lost to my opponents flushdraw when he binked on the river, in a 600 BB pot. That hurt quite alot at the time, because i had been waiting to get that aggro monkey to put all his money in with bad shape against me, and that did happen.

Very next hand after losing that hand i rebuy for 150 BB and i pick up KK. I limp in UTG +2. Raise in front of me and 3 callers. Back to me i waste noe time to announce allin, and the original raiser instacalls and tables AJ

Last edited by Gilmour; 03-02-2014 at 09:32 AM.
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:35 AM   #6541
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
without further context, your frequent shoving comes across as a bit spewy.

also, sounds like you're attempting a short stack strategy, which is more high variance.

No, I'm not frequently shoving. As I said, I will limp with pairs 99 and under, and only raise with 10-10 and above.

Because I am short stacked, say there is $30-50 on table in calls. If I have $100 behind, it's pointless to just raise to $50 and fold, so I usually just shove if I feel I have the best hand. Which I often do, or it's a 50/50.

But I'm only doing it with dead $. Should I tighten up even more and not do that with AK, AQ, 10-10? I mean I feel I'm very nitty already.

Good point, short stack is more variance.
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:48 AM   #6542
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Not to keep this conversation going any longer than it needs to go...

But last thing I'll say to you is that you should just play full stacked and get better at poker

Read stickies in micro full ring and try to implement one new thing to your game at a time
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Old 03-02-2014, 09:50 AM   #6543
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
Not to keep this conversation going any longer than it needs to go...

But last thing I'll say to you is that you should just play full stacked and get better at poker

Read stickies in micro full ring and try to implement one new thing to your game at a time

Not to forget the "best of" collection stickied in this forum, many threads and posters there have helped my game and approach to poker tremendously. Some serious gold there.
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Old 03-02-2014, 11:37 AM   #6544
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Jazzed,

Post your HH in new threads in this forum. Not here in the WBF thread.

Poker history is replete with stories of good players on huge downswings. 10BI downswing at NLHE is not only possible, but likely.

Sounds to me like you just need to open a 2+2Bank account so that you can better track and invest your G-bucks.
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Old 03-02-2014, 01:09 PM   #6545
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

FWIW if you are truly short stacking it should be $60.

But if you are raising $20 pre with JJ-AA and getting 3+ callers you are printing money dude. Shove. Every. Single. Flop.
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Old 03-02-2014, 02:56 PM   #6546
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzed23 View Post
How many Buy-Ins up or down would be a good indication of a normal swing?

Seems like I"ve been getting my $ all in as 50-50 or better but have hit like 2 in 10.

So would a downswing of 10 BI be considered just running bad?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jazzed23 View Post
Ok the past few ALL-In's:

Hero: Villian: Flop

AK off vs 10/10 lost
Q8 vs Q/10 Q/10/x 2
KK vs 99 All-in pre flop. 9 hits
QJ vs AA 108x
A "normal" downswing doesn't exist. It all depend on your winrate what kind of swings you can expect.

If you're getting flips a lot, your swings will be pretty big. However, with as many bad players as there are at LLSNL, you shouldn't be flipping very often.

If you are running bad in the sense of getting your money in with a lot of equity and losing, then downswings can be minimized with a good red line. Your red line can be massive at LLSNL.
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Old 03-02-2014, 03:59 PM   #6547
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by KyddDynamite View Post
A "normal" downswing doesn't exist. It all depend on your winrate what kind of swings you can expect.

If you're getting flips a lot, your swings will be pretty big. However, with as many bad players as there are at LLSNL, you shouldn't be flipping very often.

If you are running bad in the sense of getting your money in with a lot of equity and losing, then downswings can be minimized with a good red line. Your red line can be massive at LLSNL.
I disagree, redline is not a major component to beating llsnl
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Old 03-02-2014, 04:17 PM   #6548
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I actually think redline is a pretty big component of a good player's win-rate at 2/5 NL.

More or less, I agree with Kydd's post about strong redline numbers mitigating run bad at 2/5 NL.
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Old 03-02-2014, 04:32 PM   #6549
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That would imply llsnl is not filled with a ton of calling stations, and we know the truth is quite the opposite.

The majority of your profit is always going to be showdown winnings, aka value town
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Old 03-02-2014, 05:12 PM   #6550
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

HLB,

You're going to be limiting your winrate with that kind of thinking. If you go into every hand with the mindset of "well, nobody folds any piece of the board", your development as a poker player is going to peak pretty quickly. Identifying good boards/targets for cbets, multi-street barrels, and floats are necessary skills if you want to maximize your winrate and mitigate the natural variance inherent in LLSNL due to small sample size.
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