hey guys .. newb poaster , just came in to complain about my live life grinding 1/2 at maryland live! ,

my month sessions so far are like this (daily ):

+300
+400
+140
+670
+350
+980 (weee! this game is ez!)
-500 (oops, first losing sesh : (
+500 (haha! im back!)
-100
-550
-400
-400 (ugh .. feels like i cannot log a win ever again)

so i took the weekend off.. to regroup and read 2p2 and get my sh*t together. Ive been pretty sick , from this guy that was sitting next to me coughing this wheezy cough, i thought to myself, man i know this guy is gonna get me sick.. sure enough, now im sitting here with this stupid wheezy cough.

and yesterday i played a hand, where i look down at 57s , i limp , i call some bets with oesd multiway, and bingoooo! , i hit the nuts on the river, and can it be-- this CALLBOX donk is betting into me LARGE on the riv ... weeee, i 3! the HELL out of her , she makes it 60, i make it 200 .. and ofc, she calls ! I flip up my cards .. and to my dismay , i immediately see that i have 47 suited, with a 7 high nothing, and she scoops the pot with like J5 two pair on a flushed/straight board where everything got there.

awesome!

Hi guys, over the years of reading this and other threads, unless I've missed something, I've accepted that the general consensus seems to be that making 8-10 big blinds per hour in a 2/5 or 3/5 or 5/10 live NL game is an excellent win rate. My question is, for those of us who live in areas with betting caps and tight buy-in restrictions, what would be a modified target win rate? Or is the difference negligible?

Consider this restriction: 2/5, 300 max buy in, 500 max bet.
Or, 3/5, 500 max buy in, 500 max bet.
Finally, 5/10, variable max buy in, 500 max bet.

If this has already been answered, sorry, couldn't find it.

Yikes. Not an expert here, but depending on the rebuy dynamics that the average player employs, it's likely that such a small capped buyin and capped bets (for the 5/10 in particular) will really cut into your win-rate potential... I can't really put a number to it, but I'm guessing it's far from being negligible.

Ashes,

My 2/5 results for the year at MD Live!

1/4 +1100
1/11 +515
1/18 +2285
1/25 +625
2/1 -2600
2/6 +600
2/8 +2270
2/13 -500
2/15 -2000

+2325 over 111.8 hours $20.79 an hour or about 16bb/100 hands

I think even with solid play swings of 5 buy ins can be the norm at MD Live! just due to the wide range of player types and normal variance. Two friends who have played 2/5 40+ hours a week at Live since the day they opened are at $28 and $26 an hour. They both pretty much play ABC poker and are solid players.





Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I317 using 2+2 Forums

What's the Max buy-in there

not too shabby IG ,

oh absolutely 5bi swings are norm especially at 1/2 i wouldnt be surprised by 10bi or more , variance is a bitch with so many lagtards and callbox donks , and i can admit right away that i have made some big mistakes and spewed a bit in my last couple sessions and it was not ALL runbad ...

if you see me at the tables say whatsup ! im the white kid, look like im in my 20's with tattooed on the knuckles of my left hand .. im there pretty much every day except ive been really sick the past week so i havent been playing much .. cheers , and gl

Picture of hand please? That's pretty cool really want to see that.

id take a better pic but my phone is broken so this is all ive got

It's already been said, but the RoR formula assumes 100% of your win rate is put into your bank roll. If you take 100% of your wins as profit then your win rate for the RoR formula is actually 0, and your probability of going bust is 1.

GL with poker, hopefully you're a crusher. Guess its safe to say he's "all in"

Mikko,

Max buy in at 2/5 is 500....:-(

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I317 using 2+2 Forums

Both of these statements are incorrect. Though the second is just carries the error of the first forward, since someone with a winrate of zero and a non zero SD is certain to go broke.

There is a way to factor in only returning a certain percentage of your winnings to your bankroll, but it isnt this. Ill look it up and post it if i get the chance.

If i am reading the above correct then:
Say you make $20/hour long term playing poker and play 120 hours a month, that is $2400 a month and your bills are $1500 a month then for ROR formula purposes your hourly would be only $7.50/hour(after taking out bill money) with your Standard Deviation to get your ROR %.

Not sure what error you're seeing? If you always pull out money when you win so that you're back to starting bankroll, but always allow your BR to replenish to "full" if you've lost recently, then your average bankroll (if you're a winning player) would be your starting bankroll. And the probability of going bust is = 1 in the limit of infinity, because you'd have to go on a downswing that is the size of your starting bankroll - that's all.

Correct. Your bankroll's hourly is $7.50. You'd use the bankroll's "stats" for ROR calculations.

I won't get into the math of it -- tbh because i don't know it off hand and dont really have the time to look it up atm.

but think of it this way -- Imagine two players with the same SD and the same bankroll who both practice this policy. One has a WR of 3bb/hr and one has a WR of 30bb/hr.

The model you pose says that from a RoR perspective, these players are the same. However, it should be easy to see that the first player is much more likely to go broke than the second player.

Or imagine the two players have the same WR and SD, but one has a 50bi BR and one has a 5000bi BR. Again, the model you propose assigns the same ROR to both players even though it should be clear that it is much more likely for the first player to bust.

Only if you are taking money out of your bankroll when your $1500 monthly expenses exceed your monthly win.

what do elite 1/2 (200 max) players make per month?

There really aren't any "elite" 1/2 players. Even if there were playing elite hours in elite games would be a lot more important at that level. That said about 3500.

Edit: Basically, what is the probability that you go on a 50BI downswing at some point if you keep playing for the rest of eternity? 100%. The same holds for any bankroll if you can never add to it, because EVENTUALLY (with a finite bankroll), you will go on a large enough downswing to lose.

Keep in mind, the time-scales we're talking about aren't even slightly reasonable, which is why for the 50 BI to 5,000 BI comparison, it's purely theoretical. But how many people do you know with a 5,000BI bankroll anyway?

about the same number that I know who are planning to play for infinity?

Well we kind of have to deal with infinity. Or, estimate how many hands you are going to play over the rest of your life. The infinity, as I already said, is a theoretical. But saying that P(going bust) =/= 1 at time = infinity just because infinity isn't "practical" doesn't make sense.

But just for ****s'n'giggles, let's say I play 30 hands/hr for 40 hrs/wk for 50 wks/year for the next 50 yrs of my life:

30hands/hr x 40 hrs/wk x 50 wks/year x 50 years = 3,000,000 hands, or for hourly stuffs, = 100,000 hours

Now you can have a blast deciding how likely it is you go bust if you maintain whatever exact win-rate for the rest of your life.

For whatever it's worth, I just looked at a variance calculator, plugging in: 3,000,000 hands, a win-rate of 30bb/100 (~$18/hr at 1/2 for example), and a standard deviation of 300bb/100 (no idea how realistic this is though, since I guess I'd have to have data on the standard deviation of approximately 3 and 1/3 hour sessions).

Probabilities of downswing >= 50 BI's was ~10%.

That's what I thought.

I knew one of these monkeys, and he typed Hamlet.

But there was typo in Act III, Scene1.

Careless ****in monkey!

how many hours/sessions before Standard deviation/hour becomes a useable statistic?

FYP bruh.

Pretty sure if you're making money, you're making money.

If you are trying to use this to predict future gains / losses / swings, don't.
That leads to people putting too much stock into short term results normally.

[x] Keep playing well.
..
..
[x] Profit.
[x] Do coke off a hooker boobs.
[x] Die.

It's a solid plan.