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Old 04-18-2011, 09:06 PM   #601
agnostia
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Re: New to live low stakes

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Originally Posted by Giantsbran View Post
A good hourly rate for 1/2 would be anywhere from 20-30$. I had a player at my table a few days ago who bought in with $200, and 4 hours later left with $1500.
this is not normal, by any means. this guy ran like god and coolered the crap out of people. 6.5bi in 4 hrs just does not happen enough to be considered a factor in one's win rate.

$15-$25 per hour is much more reasonable at 1/2... the latter being if the game tends to play deep/has uncapped buy in.
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Old 04-19-2011, 10:21 PM   #602
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

What's the minimum number of hours for a large enough sample size to determine what your long term winrate is?
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Old 04-19-2011, 11:02 PM   #603
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

500 hours should give you a pretty good idea. 1000 better.
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Old 04-20-2011, 12:12 AM   #604
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

ya. i would say at 500 you can start looking at the winrate number, at 1000 to me it becomes a useful number. 2000 you are starting to get a pretty solid idea of your winrate.
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Old 04-20-2011, 06:45 AM   #605
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's tough to say that after "x" # hours you have a pretty good idea of you WR. While more hours logged certainly gives you a better idea of your WR, there are other factors at play (they have probably been mentioned already).

Your WR is not static. For example, I feel like I had improved my game a lot between hour 1 and hour 500. Maybe my historic WR is $25/hr, but I feel like I have $30/hr potential looking forward. Others may have tilt problems that negatively effected their game. Perhaps they have developed methods to control tilt between hours 200-300 that improved their WR by 10-25%. Another example; Some may have a high WR for 500 hours then go through personal problems that effect play for the next 50-150 hours.

Food for thought.
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Old 04-20-2011, 11:26 AM   #606
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Re: How much will live games take off?

About the posts where you guys are say NOBODY CAN MAKE 60K in a year at 1/2... You are WRONG!!!

I have a friend who make $38/hour and averages 145 hours a month. Our poker room is only open Tuesday-Friday 4-12 and SAT-SUN 2-12 so thats being there all the time. He was up 18K in the first 3 months of 2011 and thats with a 3 week break even stretch.

Now this makes me VERY VERY sad inside bc I cant beat the game for this amount. I was at $28/ hour and thought I sucked!!!!!! But now I hit a downswing--MASSIVE -30bin and I am feeling the pain.

He doesnt hit these downswings... He runs very well.... ALWAYS!!! I try to say that the downswing will come but it hasent yet. And his run bads are break even weeks--must be nice!
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Old 04-20-2011, 01:08 PM   #607
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
About the posts where you guys are say NOBODY CAN MAKE 60K in a year at 1/2... You are WRONG!!!

I have a friend who make $38/hour and averages 145 hours a month. Our poker room is only open Tuesday-Friday 4-12 and SAT-SUN 2-12 so thats being there all the time. He was up 18K in the first 3 months of 2011 and thats with a 3 week break even stretch.

Now this makes me VERY VERY sad inside bc I cant beat the game for this amount. I was at $28/ hour and thought I sucked!!!!!! But now I hit a downswing--MASSIVE -30bin and I am feeling the pain.

He doesnt hit these downswings... He runs very well.... ALWAYS!!! I try to say that the downswing will come but it hasent yet. And his run bads are break even weeks--must be nice!
wow @ you. how does one say "you can't beat the game for X amount", immediately followed by "i have a friend who beats the game for X amount"??
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Old 04-20-2011, 04:10 PM   #608
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

winrate discussions always break down somehow. it just feels like nothing every really gets accomplished in them.
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Old 04-20-2011, 04:26 PM   #609
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i'm gonna start referring people to this post when it comes to winrate/sample size discussions.

it's 2 quotes, one of a great post by Perc, and one of a post by me that sums up my understanding of the issue.
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Old 04-20-2011, 04:47 PM   #610
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^^^^^ does not link to a post
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Old 04-20-2011, 05:26 PM   #611
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
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^^^^^^ does not link to a post
rly? does for me

try this: https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=3102
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Old 04-20-2011, 06:54 PM   #612
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by OoberSick View Post
wow @ you. how does one say "you can't beat the game for X amount", immediately followed by "i have a friend who beats the game for X amount"??

I would look at my statement as a double negative. I am saying that you can make that much, try and re-read it!
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Old 04-20-2011, 08:20 PM   #613
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Re: How much will live games take off?

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
About the posts where you guys are say NOBODY CAN MAKE 60K in a year at 1/2... You are WRONG!!!

I have a friend who make $38/hour and averages 145 hours a month. Our poker room is only open Tuesday-Friday 4-12 and SAT-SUN 2-12 so thats being there all the time. He was up 18K in the first 3 months of 2011 and thats with a 3 week break even stretch.

Now this makes me VERY VERY sad inside bc I cant beat the game for this amount. I was at $28/ hour and thought I sucked!!!!!! But now I hit a downswing--MASSIVE -30bin and I am feeling the pain.

He doesnt hit these downswings... He runs very well.... ALWAYS!!! I try to say that the downswing will come but it hasent yet. And his run bads are break even weeks--must be nice!
1) Nobody makes $38/hr at 1/2

2) Nobody makes $28/hr at 1/2

3) Almost nobody makes $15/hr at 1/2
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Old 04-20-2011, 09:46 PM   #614
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by SeeThomasHowl View Post
1) Nobody makes $38/hr at 1/2

2) Nobody makes $28/hr at 1/2

3) Almost nobody makes $15/hr at 1/2
Well I am sorry to tell you that you are wrong. To make a statement like NOBODY is not the smartest thing to do!

I made $28/hr then hit a huge downswing... Still beating the game over 1k hours.

I am 100% sure he makes 38/hr at the same game.
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Old 04-20-2011, 09:57 PM   #615
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
I made $28/hr then hit a huge downswing... Still beating the game over 1k hours.
lol
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Old 04-21-2011, 08:41 AM   #616
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
Well I am sorry to tell you that you are wrong. To make a statement like NOBODY is not the smartest thing to do!

I made $28/hr then hit a huge downswing... Still beating the game over 1k hours.

.
This is classic. Is there some kind of award we can nominate it for?

.
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Old 04-21-2011, 10:09 AM   #617
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

cap217, what is your new hourly rate when you calculate in your 30 bi downswing?
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Old 04-21-2011, 11:18 AM   #618
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$20.63
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Old 04-21-2011, 11:20 AM   #619
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Re: How much will live games take off?

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Originally Posted by 72winner View Post
This is classic. Is there some kind of award we can nominate it for?

.

You are saying if someone has 500 hours you can get an idea of a winrate. Well at 500 hours my winrate was very high. At 700 hours it was still high. At 900 hours it was close to $30/hr. At 1000 hours it was at $28. So hitting a downswing a year into 1/2 NL I hit a downswing and it took me down to low $20's.

What is your point?

At 1500 hours I might be at $27/hr. We dont know but 1000 hours is a good sample size for live...
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Old 04-21-2011, 11:22 AM   #620
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$32.00
$58.00
$609.00
$521.00
$15.00
$202.00
$0.00
$220.00
$309.00
$55.00
($12.00)
$367.00
$441.00
$14.00
$356.00
$447.00
$40.00
($1,140.00)
$356.00
($600.00)
$547.00
($630.00)
$564.00
$709.00
($49.00)
$213.00
$152.00
$326.00
$183.00
$34.00
($44.00)
($600.00)
$281.00
($150.00)
($740.00)
$120.00
($100.00)
($176.00)
($153.00)
($100.00)
$6.00
($530.00)
($370.00)
$445.00
($200.00)
($120.00)
($380.00)
$300.00
$226.00
($249.00)
$250.00
($18.00)
$143.00
$134.00
$268.00
($700.00)
$201.00
$12.00
$45.00
($546.00)
($280.00)
($372.00)
($600.00)
($500.00)



Not that it matters but you can see where the DOWNSWING started...
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Old 04-21-2011, 11:43 AM   #621
72winner
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
$32.00
$58.00
$609.00
$521.00
$15.00
$202.00
$0.00
$220.00
$309.00
$55.00
($12.00)
$367.00
$441.00
$14.00
$356.00
$447.00
$40.00
($1,140.00)
$356.00
($600.00)
$547.00
($630.00)
$564.00
$709.00
($49.00)
$213.00
$152.00
$326.00
$183.00
$34.00
($44.00)
($600.00)
$281.00
($150.00)
($740.00)
$120.00
($100.00)
($176.00)
($153.00)
($100.00)
$6.00
($530.00)
($370.00)
$445.00
($200.00)
($120.00)
($380.00)
$300.00
$226.00
($249.00)
$250.00
($18.00)
$143.00
$134.00
$268.00
($700.00)
$201.00
$12.00
$45.00
($546.00)
($280.00)
($372.00)
($600.00)
($500.00)



Not that it matters but you can see where the DOWNSWING started...
What are we looking at?

If you have 1000+ hours logged you either:
1. Have 20+ hour sessions
2. Are reporting weekly or some other data
3. Don't have 1000 hrs logged.

65 sessions for 1000+ hours is 14 hrs avg (IE some 20+ sessions prolly)

If it was sessions I'd say you need to work on your tilt issues and institute a stoploss.

Your wins tend to be pretty big relative to your losses. If it's not going well, just go home, light one up, and watch UFC.

Sometimes it's an actual downswing, sometimes you start playing worse.
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Old 04-21-2011, 11:59 AM   #622
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This was the past # of sessions before the downswing started. So now add about 20 losses in a row.

I couldnt paste everything I guess.

I am just showing sessions at 1/2 and what you can win and lose.
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Old 04-21-2011, 01:40 PM   #623
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by cap217 View Post
This was the past # of sessions before the downswing started. So now add about 20 losses in a row.

I couldnt paste everything I guess.

I am just showing sessions at 1/2 and what you can win and lose.
I suspect you play a somewhat high variance game. You can win a lot and lose a lot. Then you need more hrs to calculate your real win rate.

Assuming you're playing exactly the same this seems to be a testament for playing longer before really establishing win rate.

Most people when they have such a down swing get tilt issues, loss of confidence, etc. which exacerbates their swing. So I suspect you have some bad luck recently but also are not playing as well as you did when you were confident.

Not sure about $1100 loss in a day playing 1/2. Seems like you need to quit sooner. I'd suggest $300 frankly. Danger of getting tilted too great. Why chase losses.
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Old 04-21-2011, 01:51 PM   #624
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 72winner View Post
I suspect you play a somewhat high variance game. You can win a lot and lose a lot. Then you need more hrs to calculate your real win rate.

Assuming you're playing exactly the same this seems to be a testament for playing longer before really establishing win rate.

Most people when they have such a down swing get tilt issues, loss of confidence, etc. which exacerbates their swing. So I suspect you have some bad luck recently but also are not playing as well as you did when you were confident.

Not sure about $1100 loss in a day playing 1/2. Seems like you need to quit sooner. I'd suggest $300 frankly. Danger of getting tilted too great. Why chase losses.
I have tried to leave after losing a certain amount. With my spreadsheet the cutoff should be $450 but if I am playing well I stay. Losing over $1K is hard to do but I have done it 3 times. Tilt? I would say no but it has to be!!!!

I got some back luck lately for sure and that made me question decisions and made me play worse. I am on a break until May and clearing my head of negative thoughts.

I dont think I play a high variance style, I do play a high varaince game though where donks are NUTS! I assume all 1/2's are like this butI guess not.
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Old 04-21-2011, 09:44 PM   #625
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Re: How much will live games take off?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeeThomasHowl View Post
1) Nobody makes $38/hr at 1/2

2) Nobody makes $28/hr at 1/2

3) Almost nobody makes $15/hr at 1/2
Seriously? I agree that only the best players make $20+/hr over a large sample size (assuming the buyin is capped at 100bb), but it's not that hard to make $15/hr at 1/2 in most areas if you're playing at peak times.
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