Two Plus Two Poker Forums [OFFICIAL] Winrates, bankrolls, and finances
 Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read TwoPlusTwo.com

 Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

01-15-2014, 08:44 PM   #6176
Turyia
banned

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Alleged awesome guy Turyia/Moksha
Posts: 1,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by nutinsider Thanks for the response, turyia. Lets assume a bankroll of like 80k. The sample consists of 280 sessions and average session length is 6 hours. The longest session is 17 hours, shortest is like 2 or 3. As far as each individual session...yikes! My average profit per session is \$238.18. Is it possible to get a rough idea of my deviation without having every single data point? Don't think I have that information readily at hand. However my best three sessions are \$8400. \$5585. \$5285. my worst three are \$5500. \$5000. and \$4500. Not sure if this helps at all?
Depends on how rough is good enough.

You don't have enough data to calculate your standard deviation... Based on others reports of observed SD, an overwhelming majority of winning poker players fall between 100 and 250 bbs per hour. which would be 245 -613 bbs/session (assuming 6 hour sessions). Since your winrate is in dollars, you will have to convert those numbers to dollars as well.

Generally, more aggressive players tend to fall at the top of this range, and more conservative players at the bottom... so make a spitball estimate at where you fall or just do the math with 245 and 613 and come up with a range.... not optimal and probably not very precise, but given the data its the best you can do and probably better than nothing.

Last edited by Turyia; 01-15-2014 at 08:50 PM.

01-15-2014, 08:49 PM   #6177
Turyia
banned

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Alleged awesome guy Turyia/Moksha
Posts: 1,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch The whole point of determining your standard deviation is to determine how much your data fluctuates from the mean if I remember correctly. Lets look at two simple samples: -300, -200, -100, 0, 100, 200, 300 Average profit: \$0 Std dev: \$216 -100,-100,-100,0,100,100,100 Average profit: \$0 Std dev: \$100 So, that's why you actually need the individual sessions to get accurate results.
math is incorrect in both examples... 200 and 92.6

01-15-2014, 09:01 PM   #6178
iraisetoomuch
banned

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,456
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Turyia math is incorrect in both examples... 200 and 92.6
Shrug. I put =stdev(numbers) into excel. I trusted its results.

01-15-2014, 09:43 PM   #6179
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch Shrug. I put =stdev(numbers) into excel. I trusted its results.
Never trust excel stats.

 01-16-2014, 12:08 PM #6180 bwslim69 I'm a Diva, Bruh     Join Date: Oct 2009 Location: TPS reports Posts: 24,043 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Start to 2014...sustainable This does not include my \$1.25/hr in comps
01-16-2014, 12:16 PM   #6181
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,673
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch Shrug. I put =stdev(numbers) into excel. I trusted its results.
Use stdevp()...

01-16-2014, 12:20 PM   #6182
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bwslim69 Start to 2014...sustainable This does not include my \$1.25/hr in comps
Lol! Impressive session lengths so far though!

01-16-2014, 12:33 PM   #6183
iraisetoomuch
banned

Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 34,456
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Lol! Impressive session lengths so far though! Gmylifetime2/4Limitwinrateiscurrentlysittingat\$1.99/hr,nojokeG
I'm a 2/4 limit fish.

Life time stats:
6 sessions
2.01 hours
Profit: -\$85
Profit/Hour: -\$42.5/hour
BB/Hour: -10.65/hour

Wheee!

01-16-2014, 12:48 PM   #6184
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,043
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by gobbledygeek Lol! Impressive session lengths so far though! Gmylifetime2/4Limitwinrateiscurrentlysittingat\$1.99/hr,nojokeG
Yah I play a lot of 10-11 sessions interrupted by small breaks

01-16-2014, 12:55 PM   #6185
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch I'm a 2/4 limit fish. Life time stats: 6 sessions 2.01 hours Profit: -\$85 Profit/Hour: -\$42.5/hour BB/Hour: -10.65/hour Wheee!
Keep in mind that 2/4 Limit is basically unbeatable due to rake.

GcluelessNLnoobG

01-16-2014, 01:04 PM   #6186
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by bwslim69 Yah I play a lot of 10-11 sessions interrupted by small breaks
Tips and tricks?

I've been forced to play marathon sessions lately (fewer available days to play + great evening games) and I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours.

It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+

It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.

01-16-2014, 01:17 PM   #6187
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,407
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia Tips and tricks? I've been forced to play marathon sessions lately (fewer available days to play + great evening games) and I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours. It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+ It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.
Practice makes perfect. I'm trying to play my once a week session on a weekend, so my session length can be 10 - 11 hours depending on when the game starts (my average session length over my 201 sessions is now sitting at ~7.5 hours). Just really have to keep in mind that it's all one session, so it doesn't matter if you are at the start or at the middle or at the end of a particular session, or if you're up/down/even; you just have to play each individual hand as best you can.

I get up and stretch my legs/back constantly (although only missing a hand when I take a pee break). I drink water the whole time, and have a meal or two at the table. I'm guessing that helps a bit.

FWIW: I think I play like on autopilot most of the time, but my game can be beaten handily on autopilot.

GautopilotG

 01-16-2014, 01:20 PM #6188 Neutrogena grinder   Join Date: Jul 2013 Posts: 462 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances Tricks to these old geezers playing long sessions are actually pretty simple: 1. Play nitty - simplest of all strategy 2. Don't do anything crazy - doesn't require additional brain power 3. Knowing that go home means dealing with old lady and doing things that are more mundane than here - motivation
01-16-2014, 01:20 PM   #6189
Gilmour
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013
Location: Norway
Posts: 3,930
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia Tips and tricks? I've been forced to play marathon sessions lately (fewer available days to play + great evening games) and I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours. It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+ It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.
I play 10 hours almost every session (i usually has 1 hour drive to the casino or home games i attend), getting used to it now. For me personally it works to be aware of hand selection to yourself the whole time.

If you can remind yourself about keeping focused and remember how important it is not to spew/play to many hands/force things, i find that huge for my game. As you say, its so damn easy to play good for a long time and be up a lot, and then getting tired/lose your patience and then tilt/spew off a good amount of money.

Sit back and relaxe, take a cup of cofee or tea- and just focus of maintain your concentration. Make sure you eat and dont sit there hungry, thats a disaster for your patience. I often talk to myself inside my head when sitting there folding garbage when i am carddead: "this is earning me money, this is one of my edges, being able to keep calm and fold hands other players would play- and dont spew after playing for 8 hours."

Last edited by Gilmour; 01-16-2014 at 01:28 PM.

01-16-2014, 01:36 PM   #6190
bwslim69
I'm a Diva, Bruh

Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: TPS reports
Posts: 24,043
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia Tips and tricks? I've been forced to play marathon sessions lately (fewer available days to play + great evening games) and I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours. It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+ It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.
I don't really have any tips. I'm sure I am not as fresh in hour 9 as I am when I sit down but I have always had an ability to do things pretty well in long stretches. I do get up every 90 mins or so and walk a bit. i also leave to get dinner even though they would deliver to the table just to get a little walk and clear my head.

But I might just be lucky that I can play long sessions. When I was playing golf competitively and had to walk and carry 36 in a day I almost always shot lower scores in the afternoon round. I also have to work marathon sessions as I approach filing deadline (mostly April 15) and have always been able to get **** done late at night even though I am tired.

01-16-2014, 02:26 PM   #6191
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia Tips and tricks? I've been forced to play marathon sessions lately (fewer available days to play + great evening games) and I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours. It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+ It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.
I put a list of reminders on my phone and it just takes practice

01-16-2014, 03:26 PM   #6192
NitroJake
centurion

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 115
Quote:
 Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch I'm a 2/4 limit fish...
This quote triggered an immediate nap.

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Avaritia ...I keep spewing hard into like the 8-10 hours. It's like perfect play, up \$1K in hours 1-5. Drift off autopilot bleed \$100 in hours 6-7. Comical/entertaining horrispew in hours 8+ It is seriously a consistent thing I've noticed.
Where can I find you at this hour? Also, if I may suggest something im a huge proponent of for long, brain-strenuous activity are B-vitamins, Alpha Brain, Rhodiola Rosea, and Omega3/fish oil. They promote mental focus, stamina and energy. Alpha Brain is a Nootropic sold by Onnit.com read more about it there... the vitamins/oil I use every morning and then in the afternoon or early evening before a session. My daily routine for the past year has been: up at 645 (vitamins then foo), work till 4, home for 15 minute nap + b-vitas/alpha brain + food, then poker till 1-2am with rhodiola around 9pm. As of next friday, im done working and will be playing poker full time

Hope this helps.
Jake

 01-16-2014, 03:27 PM #6193 Phatty old hand   Join Date: Aug 2009 Location: USA Posts: 1,834 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances My advice would be to NOT put in long sessions. Most people play better when they play shorter sessions and take breaks. Most players would probably play MUCH better and make a lot more money on average playing 4 hours taking an hour break and playing another 4 hour session versus 9 hours straight.
01-16-2014, 04:00 PM   #6194
NitroJake
centurion

Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 115
Re

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Phatty My advice would be to NOT put in long sessions. Most people play better when they play shorter sessions and take breaks. Most players would probably play MUCH better and make a lot more money on average playing 4 hours taking an hour break and playing another 4 hour session versus 9 hours straight.
This is good advice, too, and has been proven time and again. However, if youre in a mega juicy game, it may not be in your best interest to leave just yet. First off, if youre tired and playing, youre technically practicing your B or C-game, which will help your tilt and create more opportunities if u find yourself in a juicy game at a late hour by maintaining a high level of play.

01-16-2014, 04:24 PM   #6195
kb coolman
Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: must...not...feed...trolls
Posts: 5,452
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
 Originally Posted by Phatty My advice would be to NOT put in long sessions. Most people play better when they play shorter sessions and take breaks. Most players would probably play MUCH better and make a lot more money on average playing 4 hours taking an hour break and playing another 4 hour session versus 9 hours straight.
This is really good advice. I usually play twice a week...one shorter 2-4 hour session during the week at a home game, then a longer ~8hr session on the weekends at the casino. At those longer sessions I've gotten into a bad habit lately of eating my comp meal at the table, when I used to get up and go to another restaurant in the Casino to relax and actually enjoy my meal. It's only a 30 minute break, but it makes a big difference in the later hours of my play. I need to re-commit to taking that break at the 4-hour mark.

01-16-2014, 04:40 PM   #6196
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Russian Troll
Posts: 22,424
Quote:
 Originally Posted by NitroJake This quote triggered an immediate nap. Where can I find you at this hour? Also, if I may suggest something im a huge proponent of for long, brain-strenuous activity are B-vitamins, Alpha Brain, Rhodiola Rosea, and Omega3/fish oil. They promote mental focus, stamina and energy. Alpha Brain is a Nootropic sold by Onnit.com read more about it there... the vitamins/oil I use every morning and then in the afternoon or early evening before a session. My daily routine for the past year has been: up at 645 (vitamins then foo), work till 4, home for 15 minute nap + b-vitas/alpha brain + food, then poker till 1-2am with rhodiola around 9pm. As of next friday, im done working and will be playing poker full time Hope this helps. Jake
Interesting post

 01-16-2014, 04:49 PM #6197 adios Carpal \'Tunnel   Join Date: Sep 2002 Location: Russian Troll Posts: 22,424 I have found that players tend to play longer when they're stuck. Good for you guys who can play longer sessions and play well even when way ahead.
 01-16-2014, 05:02 PM #6198 Lapidator LLSNL Frequent Flyer     Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: lying dog-faced pony soldier Posts: 13,763 re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances According to bip!'s PGC thread, we should be hit-n-run'ing...
01-16-2014, 05:05 PM   #6199
Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Russian Troll
Posts: 22,424
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Lapidator According to bip!'s PGC thread, we should be hit-n-run'ing...
As long as there are enough tables. It has some merit but it is time consuming live. Could be convinced otherwise.

01-16-2014, 05:19 PM   #6200
bip!
Slow Pony

Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,673
Quote:
 Originally Posted by Lapidator According to bip!'s PGC thread, we should be hit-n-run'ing...
Lol :P

... \$100k roll guaranteed If you sign up for my 30 week course, we teach you all the essential forms of "running":
- hit n running
- sun running
- running for stall 4 when you forget what happened the last time you ordered that...

 Thread Tools Display Modes Linear Mode

 Posting Rules You may not post new threads You may not post replies You may not post attachments You may not edit your posts BB code is On Smilies are On [IMG] code is On HTML code is Off Forum Rules
 Forum Jump User Control Panel Private Messages Subscriptions Who's Online Search Forums Forums Home Poker News & Discussion     News, Views, and Gossip     Poker Blogs and Goals     Poker Beats, Brags, and Variance     YouTube Podcasts & Twitch Streams     General Poker Discussion Online Poker Sites & Marketplaces     Online Poker Sites         Discussion of Poker Sites         Global Poker         BetOnline.ag         PokerStars: General discussion     Coaches & Schools         Seeking Coaching         Study Groups         General Coaching & Schools Discussion     Staking         Seeking Stakes         Selling Shares - Live         Selling Shares - Online         Staking Rails     Poker Software         Hand2Note         General Software Discussion     General Marketplace     Transaction Feedback & Disputes Live Poker     Las Vegas Lifestyle     Venues & Communities     Tournament Events         WPT.com     Home Poker     Casino & Cardroom Poker Poker Strategy     Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash     Online No-Limit Hold’em Cash     No Limit Tournaments         Heads Up SNG and Spin and Gos     Mid-High Stakes MTT     Omaha         Omaha/8     Other Poker Games         Mid-High Stakes Limit         Micro-Small Stakes Limit         Stud     Psychology     Books and Publications     Poker Theory & GTO     Beginners and General Questions 2+2 Communities     Other Other Topics         OOTV     The Lounge: Discussion+Review     BBV4Life         omg omg omg     House of Blogs Sports and Games     Sporting Events         Single-Team Season Threads         Fantasy Sports     Sports Betting     Fantasy Sports         Sporting Events     Wrestling     Golf     Chess and Other Board Games         Backgammon Forum hosted by Bill Robertie.     Video Games         League of Legends         Hearthstone     Puzzles and Other Games Other Topics     Politics and Society     Business, Finance, and Investing     History     Health and Fitness     Travel     Science, Math, and Philosophy     Religion, God, and Theology     Laughs or Links!     Probability     Other Gambling Games     Computer and Technical Help Two Plus Two     About the Forums

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:16 PM.

 Contact Us - Two Plus Two Publishing LLC - Privacy Statement - Top