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Old 01-14-2014, 01:00 PM   #6151
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yes.

You're really talking Coefficient of Variation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_variation, standard deviation over mean.
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Old 01-14-2014, 01:09 PM   #6152
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cool. thanks.

3 months. 280 hours. ridiculous win rate.



i know its not that much data... but it seems to follow a decent curve.
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Old 01-14-2014, 01:49 PM   #6153
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Slippery....Read again... "per winrate".

Variance by itself means squat... variance / WR is what determines downswing potential.

20/40 limit player with a $50/hr WR is going to require a bigger bankroll than 2/5 NL player with a $50/hr WR.

NL is not a swingy game when compared to many other forms of +EV gambling. Although, LO8 is about the most BR friendly game... provided youre not prone to tilt
fyp
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Old 01-14-2014, 01:53 PM   #6154
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I played limit for over 10 years. Switched to NL just 1.5 years ago. Limit is way more swingy than NL. Bank roll management is much easier with NL.
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Old 01-14-2014, 02:40 PM   #6155
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Originally Posted by SlipperyAces View Post
ok, maybe i get it now... so a 2/5 100 Spread game is a lower win rate, lower bankroll game then 2/5 NL... so while the SD of 2/5 NL will be larger then 2/5 100 spread... the 2/5 100 spread will have a higher variance then a comparable maybe 1/2 NL game?
(sd^2/2wr)*(1/ror)=br

if you look at the formula, youll notice that the effect of doubling the winrate is that it halves the required bankroll for the same ror (or alternatively you could say it doubles the ror for the same bankroll)
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Old 01-14-2014, 02:48 PM   #6156
SlipperyAces
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what is ROR?
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Old 01-14-2014, 02:50 PM   #6157
Todd Lapham
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Risk of ruin/going busto.
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Old 01-14-2014, 02:52 PM   #6158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Yeah - limit is higher variance per win rate compared to NLHE... so it actually takes longer to determine any meaningful stats.
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Originally Posted by Todd Lapham View Post
Risk of ruin/going busto.
this.

when youre figuring out your required bankroll, you get to decide how much of a chance of busto you are willing to tolerate
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Old 01-14-2014, 02:58 PM   #6159
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Moving down stakes also helps ROR ...
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:00 PM   #6160
SlipperyAces
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Quote:
(sd^2/2wr)*(1/ror)=br
SD and WR are both per hour and not session correct?

How do I decide on my ROR?
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:09 PM   #6161
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by SlipperyAces View Post
SD and WR are both per hour and not session correct?

How do I decide on my ROR?
if you're using the formula to find your ideal bankroll, the % for ROR will be dependent upon your own personal risk aversion (do i want a 5% chance of going broke? 1%?). if you're trying to find your own ROR for your br/games, do some algebra and solve for ROR
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:13 PM   #6162
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Originally Posted by SlipperyAces View Post
SD and WR are both per hour and not session correct?
The periods and the units have to be the same, but it doesnt matter what they are. That is to say, if your SD is X bbs/hr your wr has to be Y bbs/hr. If your SD is Xbbs/session, the winrate also has to be X bbs/session and your bankroll has to be in bbs.


Quote:
How do I decide on my ROR?
thats a personal question.... what percentage chance of going broke are you willing to tolerate. A big part of that is what happens to you if you go broke. If the answer to this question is "I am forced into a life of roadside prostitution" or "Teddy KGB tells gramma to shoot me in the face" then the number is probaly quite low. If the answer is "I wait for my net paycheck and start the grind all over again, it can be quite high.
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:15 PM   #6163
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Originally Posted by acerwin View Post
if you're using the formula to find your ideal bankroll, the % for ROR will be dependent upon your own personal risk aversion (do i want a 5% chance of going broke? 1%?). if you're trying to find your own ROR for your br/games, do some algebra and solve for ROR
e ^(-2WR*BR / SD^2)

E is 2.7... its a constant i dont know where it comes from.
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:19 PM   #6164
SlipperyAces
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is that percent of ruin any given session?!

I might be missing something.

I have an income so br management is mehh... but for the sake of this I plugged in a 25% chance of ruin... with a 25% chance of ruin... and my SD and WR and Avg buy-in... it says I need 25 buy-ins... no way.
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:23 PM   #6165
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Originally Posted by SlipperyAces View Post
is that percent of ruin any given session?!

I might be missing something.

I have an income so br management is mehh... but for the sake of this I plugged in a 25% chance of ruin... with a 25% chance of ruin... and my SD and WR and Avg buy-in... it says I need 25 buy-ins... no way.
Ror is not per session. It is the chance of intersecting zero while playing indefinitely.

Buyin never comes into it... give me your SD WR and ill show you how to do it
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:28 PM   #6166
SlipperyAces
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

422.71
50.04

this is at 2/5 100 spread... and done by short stacking
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:33 PM   #6167
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Originally Posted by SlipperyAces View Post
422.71
50.04

this is at 2/5 100 spread... and done by short stacking
(422.71*422.71)/(2*50.04)*(1/.25)=bankroll

(178683.7441/100.08)4=7090.62


Im not sure if thats in BBs or $(edit -- given the numbers im assuming dollars), but that means you need a total bankroll of 7090 to be able to play the game youre playing and have a 25% of going busto at some point if you keep playing forever.

this might seem like a lowish BR requirement, but most people would say that your acceptable RoR is pretty high.
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Old 01-14-2014, 03:35 PM   #6168
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per hour and $

....

and as i said earlier. w/ 284$ average buyin 7090.62/284 = ~25 buy in's lol

Last edited by SlipperyAces; 01-14-2014 at 03:40 PM.
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Old 01-15-2014, 06:53 AM   #6169
nutinsider
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Hey guys, since we are on the topic of ROR and standard deviation and stuff, I'm wondering if anyone can help me? I have a droid so I don't have poker journal, I use poker manager and it doesnt give me the useful standard deviation statistic. I'm hoping that someone can look at the numbers below and calculate it for me. I would like to know this so I can calculate my risk of ruin. I would like to know my risk of ruin for bankroll requirement purposes.



Bought in cash out profit hours hourly Sessions
$339,261 $405,712 $66,451.00 1640.5 $40.51 280


Is it possible to calculate my standard deviation and ROR with the given data or is more required?

The data is from mostly house games. 75% hold em and 25% PLO.


Thanks!
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Old 01-15-2014, 12:31 PM   #6170
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^ to calculate stdev, you need the actual data set of each individual session
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Old 01-15-2014, 12:39 PM   #6171
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ya, you best exporting to excel and then going from there if you can.
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Old 01-15-2014, 01:50 PM   #6172
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Quote:
Is it possible to calculate my standard deviation and ROR with the given data or is more required?

The data is from mostly house games. 75% hold em and 25% PLO.


Thanks!
youd also need your bankroll

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
^ to calculate stdev, you need the actual data set of each individual session
Assuming there isn't a huge difference in the length of the sessions, he can just do it by session. IMO hourly is too short a period anyway. Of course if he does this, he has so few data points as to make the results meaningless regardless.
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Old 01-15-2014, 07:28 PM   #6173
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Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
youd also need your bankroll



Assuming there isn't a huge difference in the length of the sessions, he can just do it by session. IMO hourly is too short a period anyway. Of course if he does this, he has so few data points as to make the results meaningless regardless.


Thanks for the response, turyia. Lets assume a bankroll of like 80k. The sample consists of 280 sessions and average session length is 6 hours. The longest session is 17 hours, shortest is like 2 or 3. As far as each individual session...yikes! My average profit per session is $238.18. Is it possible to get a rough idea of my deviation without having every single data point?

Don't think I have that information readily at hand. However my best three sessions are $8400. $5585. $5285. my worst three are $5500. $5000. and $4500. Not sure if this helps at all?
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Old 01-15-2014, 07:39 PM   #6174
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by nutinsider View Post
Thanks for the response, turyia. Lets assume a bankroll of like 80k. The sample consists of 280 sessions and average session length is 6 hours. The longest session is 17 hours, shortest is like 2 or 3. As far as each individual session...yikes! My average profit per session is $238.18. Is it possible to get a rough idea of my deviation without having every single data point?

Don't think I have that information readily at hand. However my best three sessions are $8400. $5585. $5285. my worst three are $5500. $5000. and $4500. Not sure if this helps at all?
The whole point of determining your standard deviation is to determine how much your data fluctuates from the mean if I remember correctly.

Lets look at two simple samples:

-300, -200, -100, 0, 100, 200, 300
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $216

-100,-100,-100,0,100,100,100
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $100

So, that's why you actually need the individual sessions to get accurate results.
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Old 01-15-2014, 08:14 PM   #6175
nutinsider
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Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch View Post
The whole point of determining your standard deviation is to determine how much your data fluctuates from the mean if I remember correctly.

Lets look at two simple samples:

-300, -200, -100, 0, 100, 200, 300
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $216

-100,-100,-100,0,100,100,100
Average profit: $0
Std dev: $100

So, that's why you actually need the individual sessions to get accurate results.

That makes a lotta sense. I just exported all my sessions from my app to excel! Gotta go to a game now but I'll work more on this when I return, thanks again
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