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Old 01-03-2014, 02:56 PM   #6101
Lucere
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I knew it! Bath salts are a *****.
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:06 PM   #6102
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by 11t View Post
Obviously you took the right path to over come poor play/play better but its important to be mentally strong and understand the nature of the game etc...
Agreed on both fronts...

I will say that short run variance over the 150 sample was fine/good, but I would estimate at least $15 of the $45/hour increase was dealt to me based on playing better and playing when not tired. If I didn't read the book I would guestimate I'd be making maybe $45/hour over Q4 without adjusting anything.
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:08 PM   #6103
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It is bizarre how I can relate to almost everything in this post. I also refer to time periods as quarters which I think is funny and my Q3 was terrible but Q4 I crushed. My saving grace was playing a lot less and studying the game a lot more.

I have MGOP 1, what is added in 2?

Good luck in the poker world, may I ask what job you're leaving?
Thank you, I was a Financial Analyst intern for 2 years. My job entailed more accounting than finance. I just got my bachelors in Finance.
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:10 PM   #6104
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Congrats man. Do you think the jump had anythingto do with the bizarre Michigan "make money when it snows" phenomenon?

Also, my life is very much settled down these days so I'll be looking to shot take 2/5 over your way in the not too distant future. Beware.
That has some to do with it, yes. There is a lot more money flying around but that jump in winrate can't be attributed to softer games alone. I am to blame for trying to play cards at inopportune times earlier in the year (Q3) and my play was B and C usually when I was tired (raising pre too light, etc).
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:16 PM   #6105
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thank you, I was a Financial Analyst intern for 2 years. My job entailed more accounting than finance. I just got my bachelors in Finance.
We are basically the same person. Good luck.

Thoughts on healthcare? Location selection? Plan B?
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:42 PM   #6106
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We are basically the same person. Good luck.

Thoughts on healthcare? Location selection? Plan B?
Check out my PCG thread, but location is MOST likely South florida, with an outside chance of las vegas or Cali. Plan B? Well, I have an education now and I am studying to be certified as a personal trainer to do that on the side because I have always loved fitness.
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Old 01-03-2014, 03:50 PM   #6107
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's funny a lot of my accounting friends are now financial analysts for fortune 500 companies. I hate it when people equate finance is the same as accounting.
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Old 01-06-2014, 12:06 AM   #6108
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

hi havent read all the thread coz its huge, but i have a rake question. the rake at my casino has just gone up from 10% capped at $12 at 2/3 to being 10% capped at $20 and at 5/5 its gone from 5% capped at $20 to 10% capped at $20
with win rates at 30/hr at 2/3 and 40/hr at 5/5 prior to the rake increase are we able to calculate the new win rates or at least get an idea?
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Old 01-06-2014, 12:12 AM   #6109
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That rake made me vomit
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Old 01-06-2014, 12:59 AM   #6110
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That rake made me vomit
this. jesus man, where do you play.

i go at the problem from the opposite direction.

prior to the change, you were paying half the rake, and making only $10 an hour more. If you were winning $100 or more pots an hour, the disparity in your hourly between the two games would come entirely from the reduced rake.

Now that theyre raked the same, it seems like you would be making less in the bigger game.

I realize that the rake reduction was not quite 50%, since the rake cap on the larger game was higher, but i would think that would not have a huge effect, since the rake caps were already quite high.
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Old 01-06-2014, 01:19 AM   #6111
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MILLIONAIRE77 View Post
hi havent read all the thread coz its huge, but i have a rake question. the rake at my casino has just gone up from 10% capped at $12 at 2/3 to being 10% capped at $20 and at 5/5 its gone from 5% capped at $20 to 10% capped at $20
with win rates at 30/hr at 2/3 and 40/hr at 5/5 prior to the rake increase are we able to calculate the new win rates or at least get an idea?
Players in your pool would have to be insanely deep pocket for this game to persist.

My suggestion...walk away for good while you're still ahead.
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Old 01-06-2014, 01:26 AM   #6112
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That is a truly awful rake structure. Kind of unbeatable I'd say. Maybe barely beatable. Not worth your time certainly.
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Old 01-06-2014, 01:28 AM   #6113
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It doesn't even matter if it's beatable by an individual player because the house is literally chopping away legs of its players.
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Old 01-06-2014, 01:46 AM   #6114
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the casino is Jupiter's on the gold coast of Australia.

thx for the feed bk i have only played at the casino once since the change and after hearing your thoughts im probably never going bk. massive shame as the games are super soft.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:02 AM   #6115
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Cash Game Count: 44
Wins: 30
Losses: 14 Total Won/Lost: $7,645.00
Average / Hour: $30.70
Std. Dev. (Amount): $321.94 Total Hours: 249h 0m

how many more hours do I need to get to know for sure if I am a solid winner?

edit: this is also 1/2 nl

Last edited by dcor; 01-06-2014 at 02:08 AM.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:04 AM   #6116
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i was about to ask the same question to you math guys, at average 2/5 nl live how many hours is a decent sample?
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:07 AM   #6117
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Halfway to my 2/5 bankroll. Need to rub heads for run good.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:26 AM   #6118
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Some say 300-500 hrs.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:30 AM   #6119
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4-500 hours is a good sample to tell if you are likely a winning vs breakeven vs losing player.

But it's no where close for estimating your true hourly rate. 1500+ hours to get it within a BB or two. But by then it will have changed, or your competition will have changed, or a number of other factors, so it's essentially impossible. But you can get reasonable estimates.
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Old 01-06-2014, 02:55 AM   #6120
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I always just assume I'm a 20bb/hr winner no matter what.

Last edited by spikeraw22; 01-06-2014 at 02:55 AM. Reason: I'm also drunk right now.
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Old 01-06-2014, 06:10 AM   #6121
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boss^^^
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Old 01-06-2014, 07:44 AM   #6122
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MILLIONAIRE77 View Post
the casino is Jupiter's on the gold coast of Australia.

thx for the feed bk i have only played at the casino once since the change and after hearing your thoughts im probably never going bk. massive shame as the games are super soft.
i think i recall reading that tipping isnt legal in Aus... if so, that makes it a little better, though its still super high
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Old 01-06-2014, 09:52 AM   #6123
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In terms of actual mathmatics 1,500 to 2,000 hours would provide a meaningful sample

In terns of realizing if you can beat droolers in live poker, you should have a good feel at 500 hours imo. Feel and win rate are two different things here. Your wr is meaningless at 500 hours.
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Old 01-06-2014, 10:01 AM   #6124
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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
In terms of actual mathmatics 1,500 to 2,000 hours would provide a meaningful sample

In terns of realizing if you can beat droolers in live poker, you should have a good feel at 500 hours imo. Feel and win rate are two different things here. Your wr is meaningless at 500 hours.
im not sure you understand the "mathmatics"... your statement is untrue.

500 hours is not sufficient to provide a very high level of confidence or pinpoint your precise winrate, but it is certainly statistically meaningful.

Last edited by Turyia; 01-06-2014 at 10:13 AM.
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Old 01-06-2014, 11:28 AM   #6125
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I agree with 500 being a good first chunk.
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