Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 10-28-2013, 04:58 AM   #5801
dgiharris
All Hail His Modness
 
dgiharris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: CA and Vegas
Posts: 12,294
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Neutrogena View Post
I have tough believing someone that lives in Vegas will remain in 1/2 when beating it for more than 15bb/hr.
why? If you are crushing a game and its guaranteed money, why move up if you are happy with your results?

there will be plenty of time to move up when he is good and ready... Its not a race...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
I am confused, are people questioning dgi leaving a good table if 20% of your roll is on the table?

If anything that rule is way too lenient, I had/have a 10% rule and for people with poker as their sole source of income it should probably be lower.

Sitting with 20% of your roll in front of you is terribad.
To be clear, my rule is 10% and I have a "special circumstances" exemption for super juicy tables and in that event THEN it moves to 20%...

So if you look at all my posts on this subject, I always say....

"... when 10% of our roll is on the table we should cash out, but if we are at a super juicy table then we can up it to 20%...."

or something to that effect
dgiharris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2013, 06:21 AM   #5802
Dream
old hand
 
Dream's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,289
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
To me, the "good short stacker" is like a unicorn, dragon, or leprechaun... some mythical creature of legend in which someone always claims to have seen one but can never provide proof.

I play 5 days a week in 3 different casinos, and there are no regular short stackers in any of my games that do well. Obviously I don't have any hard stats and can only give anecdotal observation, but I just don't see any short stackers that routinely buy in short and leave 2, 3, 4, BI's up.

but I see the opposite daily. I see people buy into my games for the minimum and they bust out a very high percentage of the time within a hour. They reload several times and I can't help but wonder why they just didn't take those 3-4 reloads and buy in full...

The problem with short stacking is simple. YOU NEED TO GET STRONG VALUE HANDS.

And therein lies the rub. If you buy-in full, you have more ways to win. You can bluff, semi-bluff, float, have proper odds to set mine and draw and then when you hit you can get PAID OFF.

Conversely, short stackers have fewer ways to win: they need hands that hold up at showdown and/or are strong enough to shove all-in... Not to mention when they finally do get a hand their hands are face up as JJ+, AK and good luck getting action all the time...

So sorry, I just don't have much love for short stack play. And I've tried it several times when my roll was on life support. My results and winrate when I buy in short are horrible compared to when I buy-in full.
From what I've seen with the 20bb shortstackers at 1/2.

1. They don't know that they are playing a short stack strategy. They are playing like they have 100bb stacks. Straddling, calling 6bb raises with inappropriate hands to "see a flop", callling and being passive with their made hands when they are less than a pot size bet away from all in, etc.

2. Or they actually play an OK shortstack strategy, as far as pf ranges, but once they get to 50-100 bbs, they completely fall apart. They keep playing the same exact way, and end up going broke with tptk type stuff.
Dream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2013, 09:18 AM   #5803
PairPressure
grinder
 
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 536
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

From my experience, short stackers are tourists who don't really know anything about playing deep. For them it's like plopping $100 on a blackjack table but with poker your $100 lasts a little longer than at BJ/Craps/Routlette etc. This is from a east coast perspective of course.

Just this weekend, in Atlantic City playing 1/2 - max buy in $500, there were 2 -3 players who bought in for $100. Sucks because when you get a big hand you don't maximize your profits against these guys (as they will pay you off a lot).
PairPressure is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2013, 09:39 AM   #5804
AlienBoy
Pooh-Bah
 
AlienBoy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Luckboxing for Dollars
Posts: 4,447
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you play live in Los Angeles, you'll HAVE to learn short stacking - nearly all the NL games are capped at 33 to 50 bb buy ins.

There are a few, such as the 2/3NL and above at The Bike, where you can buy in for 100 bb - but the best action and table selection is at commerce where buy ins are generally 50 bb. (And actually at the 2/3 and 3/5, the initial buy in is 100 and 200 respectively - but once you get felted, you can re buy up to 150 or 300 respectively).


Edit: the general strategy is look to get your stack to over 100 bb as soon as practical, then run over the table....

Last edited by AlienBoy; 10-28-2013 at 09:53 AM.
AlienBoy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2013, 10:16 AM   #5805
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by PairPressure View Post
From my experience, short stackers are tourists who don't really know anything about playing deep. For them it's like plopping $100 on a blackjack table but with poker your $100 lasts a little longer than at BJ/Craps/Routlette etc. This is from a east coast perspective of course.

Just this weekend, in Atlantic City playing 1/2 - max buy in $500, there were 2 -3 players who bought in for $100. Sucks because when you get a big hand you don't maximize your profits against these guys (as they will pay you off a lot).
On the other hand, they will pay you off a lot , it just doesn't happen all at once. The repeated-50bb-buyin seems to correlate pretty strongly with show-down-with-any-random-pair.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-28-2013, 11:27 PM   #5806
tercet
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
tercet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: thall
Posts: 7,674
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A local casino in my area has pokertek(electronic tables) tables for 1-2 with a 300max buyin..

Over my first 100 hours Ive averaged 40/hr

Is this sustainable?

Ive been at a bit of a breakeven stretch at 2/5 for a while, and I'm looking to buy a car in the next month or two from poker / real-job funds. I'm just going to play weak games I see at 1/2 or 2/5.
tercet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2013, 10:42 AM   #5807
andees10
veteran
 
andees10's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Posts: 3,278
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How many hands per hour?
andees10 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2013, 12:54 PM   #5808
tercet
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
tercet's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: thall
Posts: 7,674
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

50-65 table dependent
tercet is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 10-29-2013, 02:35 PM   #5809
Avaritia
Confirmed 2500 hour haver
 
Avaritia's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Location: Florida
Posts: 12,215
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I will say that 100 hours is pretty worthless in terms of sample, but that $40 an hour at 60 hands per hour sounds pretty reasonable, actually with a $300 buy in it could be a tad more.

The go-to quoted metric in llsnl is 10bb/hr, I think that is a very "if you are crushing" number, but it seems about right. As most live games see ~30 hands per hour, it would stand to reason that your hourly would be double of the regular expectation.

Basically:

If 10bb/hr is the expectation, and we see 30 hands per hour:

10bb/30 = 20bb/60 = 33bb/100
Avaritia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:00 PM   #5810
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Managed to play every day in October, good results with couple of 2/5 sessions mixed in. Probably put in 300 hours this month between work and poker

wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:03 PM   #5811
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
Lol 2 losing sessions in a month? That's so gross.
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:07 PM   #5812
zoltan
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
zoltan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Off my lawn you little punk!
Posts: 21,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think the red are 2/5? There are like a dozen negative-profit days in that sheet.
zoltan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:09 PM   #5813
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
Oh haha I just glanced at the first one any my jaw dropped
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:09 PM   #5814
Dream
old hand
 
Dream's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,289
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Heater (or not runbad) activated!



Easy game. I find that during this run, flopping sets and getting it all in, or getting it all in with KK+ pf has been a good strategy. Also, try to make sure they don't hit flushes on you when you are all in.

Dream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:10 PM   #5815
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
I think the red are 2/5? There are like a dozen negative-profit days in that sheet.
Yeah, this. 2/5 days are in red. Think I had like 12 losing days in October.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:13 PM   #5816
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dream View Post
Heater (or not runbad) activated!



Easy game. I find that during this run, flopping sets and getting it all in, or getting it all in with KK+ pf has been a good strategy. Also, try to make sure they don't hit flushes on you when you are all in.

What software/app is this?
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:14 PM   #5817
Dream
old hand
 
Dream's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,289
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
What software/app is this?
Pokercharts. It's cheap, easy to use, and I like the stats.
Dream is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 02:38 PM   #5818
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I laughed at ROI vs. DJIA

brb cashing out my retirement funds and investing in 10/25
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 03:29 PM   #5819
dgiharris
All Hail His Modness
 
dgiharris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2009
Location: CA and Vegas
Posts: 12,294
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Managed to play every day in October, good results with couple of 2/5 sessions mixed in. Probably put in 300 hours this month between work and poker

Its official,

I hate you

Have a nice day

EDIT: oh, I misread the chart, I thought out of the entire month you only had 2 losing sessions...

okay, Now I see the daily profits and that you are in fact human. Okay, I don't hate you anymore though you have had some impressive streaks that have made me jealous...
dgiharris is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 03:31 PM   #5820
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
Its official,

I hate you

Have a nice day
Come play at the Red Rock, easy money! I also hear they love locals.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 03:37 PM   #5821
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Come play at the Red Rock, easy money! I also hear they love locals.
You don't like the challenge of higher games and yet you invite challenges.

Doesn't make sense.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 04:11 PM   #5822
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,722
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
You don't like the challenge of higher games and yet you invite challenges.

Doesn't make sense.
I'm not challenging anyone...where'd you get that from? I like the low-variance "like taking a trip to the ATM" $1/2 pokers free money machine. 2/5 is good too, but the game at Red Rock usually sucks.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 04:25 PM   #5823
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
You're good...
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 05:38 PM   #5824
lbrasci
journeyman
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: Value Town, USA
Posts: 380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I was thinking about this and just wanted to get an opinion from other players.

For example, say Player X is a full time 2/5NL poker player and his winrate is 10bb/ hr while playing 160 hours a month (same total hours as a are a regular person working a full time job). So player X monthly income would be $50*160 = $8000/ month.

So my question would be: Wouldn't Player X's actual true winrate be lower since he spends many hours during the month studying poker? Unlike a regular person who doesn't bring home work or studies for work?

Say player X spends 2 hours a day studying poker in a month so that's 60 hours. So would his true winrate be $8000/ (160hrs+60hrs) = 7.27bb/ hour instead of 10bb/ hour?

I didn't include commuting, breaks, dinner etc cux regular people with regular jobs do not get paid for those things.

Your thoughts?
lbrasci is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-01-2013, 06:35 PM   #5825
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
What's the point of making such differentiation?
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 11:09 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive