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Old 10-11-2013, 04:14 PM   #5751
wj94
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I have a little more tolerance for sticking around than you do ... but good god man, I hope you took a walk, grabbed a meal, and came an hour later to sit back down in that game with a standard buy in.
x2, dream table!
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:19 PM   #5752
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I have a little more tolerance for sticking around than you do ... but good god man, I hope you took a walk, grabbed a meal, and came an hour later to sit back down in that game with a standard buy in.
No, it was Friday or Saturday night-- board was insane and there was a table change list a mile long to get on that table

So I knew getting up was getting up for the day.

But on a related point, I believe that when we are in "build a bankroll mode" , I think it is really good for our state of mind to end the session for the day in these spots, take the money home, relax, do something else.

the psychological benefit of locking down a solid win and building our bankroll is extremely positive and powerful reinforcer to our long term success. Not to say there is anything wrong with table changing, ratholing, and then starting another session. As long as we are on our A-game, that is fine as well. But I'm a big fan of locking down wins and building our bankroll when we are in that fragile state of having fledgling anemic bankrolls (if that makes any sense).

if we do the above, it doesn't take too long to build a healthy roll. usually, we can build a healthy roll inside of a month.
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:23 PM   #5753
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Finally hit my goal of $50k in one year. Started keeping track of every-day results on 11/16/12 and made it to $50k as of 10/7/13, almost all of it at 1/2. Some stats and graph:

Total sessions - 256
Total profit - $50,368
Biggest win - $2,156 ($1/2)
Biggest loss - $1,855 (combo of $1/3 and 5/10)
Longest win streak - 25
Longest losing streak - 4
Total winning sessions - 190
Total losing sessions - 66
Win percentage - 74.2%
Average win - $196.75
1 session of 5/10, 21 sessions of 2/5, 234 sessions of 1/2

Total profit:

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Old 10-11-2013, 04:28 PM   #5754
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when I'm building my bankroll and I hit that 20% then it is time to go. No ifs ands or buts. No next hand, no one more orbit, no waiting till the blinds... just rack it up and leave...
But if you look at the big picture you never stop playing, you just change tables. If you're at a juicy table today and you leave for a lesser table tomorrow, you're really just opting for poor table selection.

I understand mitigating risk but is variance really so high that you bust 20% of the time you're deep at a juicy table?
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:31 PM   #5755
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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No, it was Friday or Saturday night-- board was insane and there was a table change list a mile long to get on that table
That's a shame

All good points on the mental side of building a bankroll though. I think that just getting up immediately and leaving is *much* better than what I see a lot of people do, which is to just shut down and try to play super tight. It kills their winrate, bleeds them of chips by playing suboptimally, then when they do get into a hand everyone knows that they have a tight range and only gives them action when crushed. When it's time to go it's time to go, just leave.
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Old 10-11-2013, 06:23 PM   #5756
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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The following joke helps keep me in the right state of mind as far as all of this is concerned.

A young bull and an old bull are on a hill overlooking a field of cows. The young bull turns to the old bull and says, "Hey, I got an idea, lets run down the hill, screw a cow, and run back up the hill."

The old bull chews on a tuft of grass for a minute and then turns to the young eager bull and says, "Hell son, i've got a better idea, lets walk down the hill and screw them all..."


Players that could "never leave such a juicy table" remind me of the young bull. Players that can't follow their own rules remind of the young bull. Players that don't truly appreciate risk and the consequences of their actions remind me of the young bull.

And I vow to not be that young bull. I want to be the old bull. So when I'm building my bankroll and I hit that 20% then it is time to go. No ifs ands or buts. No next hand, no one more orbit, no waiting till the blinds... just rack it up and leave...
Thanks for this. Invaluable advice.
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Old 10-11-2013, 06:39 PM   #5757
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Sol Reader View Post
But but but but I've already shown a table of 35bb/hour over 426 hours. >.>


And it's actually more because it includes some 1/1 pounds and 1/2 USD.
<3
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Originally Posted by n0npareil View Post
If I have a $4000 BR playing 1/2, should I leave the game once I've made a certain amount? In other words, what is the maximum percentage of my BR should I have on the table?
no. and only worry about effective stacks anyway. that is all that matters in that regard. plus you can always just play low variance/OMC for a bit.
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A very simple Question. The only live Game that i can play in my area is a 2/2 &euro; Max buy in 400. rake is 10% cap to 10&euro;, only when Flop Drops. (Pretty High). Player Pool is fishy (a few tags and a lot of weak tight/passive and aggro donks) and There are always 3-4 Big stacks 200+BB at the table. What Hourly can Archive a Good TAG in such a Game?
GOOD= about 20hr
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Originally Posted by Guy on the End View Post
But if you look at the big picture you never stop playing, you just change tables. If you're at a juicy table today and you leave for a lesser table tomorrow, you're really just opting for poor table selection.

I understand mitigating risk but is variance really so high that you bust 20% of the time you're deep at a juicy table?
x1000
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Originally Posted by SkatingIsTough View Post
Thanks for this. Invaluable advice.
the human looks down and thinks to himself, silly cows, I have them all trained to take care of my grass for me and they dont even notice because they stand around ****ing themselves all day.

he then gets in his car and drives away to his freedom
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Old 10-12-2013, 03:42 AM   #5758
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
There is a camp that believes fervently that you don't leave a game no matter what as long as you are on your A-game...

but as someone who has had to grow a roll from scratch several times, my answer is more pragmatic.

There is only so much risk we should be willing to take with our rolls. I mean, the whole point is to grow our rolls and we can't grow our rolls if we aren't able to leave tables when we are up.

To that end, my advice is that when you are at $4k, the most "profit" you should be willing to risk is 20%, so when you hit $800-ish, it's time to just pack it up and leave.

It really comes down to objectives. When my bankroll is $4k, my objective is to BUILD MY ROLL. To that end, there is only so much risk I should be willing to take. Or put another way, lets say there is a table full of mega-donks at the 25/50nl table. These players are the worst players EVER, they love to overcall and gamboool. Minimum buy-in to the game is $4k. Should we take our entire $4k bankroll over to that game?

No. No we shouldn't. Because we can not afford the consequences of busting our entire roll (google "Utility of Money")

If I were to flip the argument around and look at it from a different point of view, A good question to ask would be: "What are the consequences of cashing out when 10% or 20% of our bankroll is on the table?" Is it really so bad to do so?

Below are two tables which show a 10% BRM and 20% BRM winstop respectively

Sessions.... 10% winstop... 20% winstop

......0 ...............4000...............4000
......1 ...............4400............... 4800
......2 ...............4840............... 5760
......3 ...............5324............... 6912
......4............... 5856 ............... 8294
......5 ...............6442............... 9953
......6 ...............7086............... 11944
......7 ...............7795............... 14333
......8 ...............8574............... 17199
......9 ...............9432............... 20639
......10...............10375............... 24767

So as you can see, there are worst things in the world than increasing our bankroll in 10% and 20% chunks. Obviously there will be some losing sessions in there as well... but the point really is about risk vs reward and how much risk can/should we tolerate in building our rolls.

This kinda reminds me of the tortiose vs the hare. Slow and steady wins the race. Poker is one long session, so we can take a deep breath, relax, and cash out. The game will be there tomorrow.

Another aspect is the mental aspect of cashing out repeatedly. The piece of mind that comes from making money and cashing out goes a long ways towards keeping us on our A-game for the next session. The reverse of this is having a $4k roll, being at a super juicy table, getting up to $1.2k and then getting coolered or a bad beat. The fact that we made $2k in Sklansky bucks but have no real money to show for it isn't going to help our mental state. We will be obsessing about that "suck out" all the way to our next session. Gee, wonder how good we will play with that ball of tilt inside our chest???

Anyways, when I am in "build my bankroll" mode then I adhere to the 10% - 20% rule of thumb, I will cash out once 10% of my bankroll is reached, but if I'm at a super juicy table I will double that to 20%.

Once I have a healthy bankroll, then I can loosen my BRM or even take shots at bigger games or tolerate more risk and play with even 30% of my bankroll on the table if I'm at a ridiculously juicy table that can make my entire monthly nut in one night... But until I'm well rolled, I will adhere faithfully to my 10% - 20% rule of thumb depending on the table dynamics.
Here's a question, If we are practicing the 10-20% rule of thumb but are playing well is there anything wrong with pocketing our profit then moving on to the next poker room so we only have 1 buy-in on the table if that is an option where we live?
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Old 10-12-2013, 06:40 AM   #5759
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Guy on the End View Post
But if you look at the big picture you never stop playing, you just change tables. If you're at a juicy table today and you leave for a lesser table tomorrow, you're really just opting for poor table selection.

I understand mitigating risk but is variance really so high that you bust 20% of the time you're deep at a juicy table?
In a word, Yes.

How often does AA beat 72o?
How often does 88 beat KQ on a 8 J T board???

I hear what you are saying, its all one long game right?

Not quite. In terms of our play, yes.
In terms of actually building our bankroll.... No.

Trust me, cashing out when you've got 10% - 20% of your roll on the table is a must when you are building your roll. Seriously, look at that table I generated. Is it really so bad growing your Bankroll in 10% and 20% chunks???

Truth be told, it is RARE for us to be 80%+ ahead in a hand. Usually, we will have 60% - 70% equity in most favorable situations. How many 70% flips can you win before you lose one? How many times are you going to risk 20% of your total bankroll???

Or put another way, what is the point of being a winning player if you can't get your money to the cage.

Lets say there are one of two mistakes you could make:

#1) You cash out too early
#2) You cash out too late

if you have to error, error on the side of cashing out too early. Becuase when you cash out too early, you leave with money in your pocket. But when you cash out too late, you leave with Sklansky bucks in your pocket.

And as much as I love Sklansky bucks, you can't spend it at the mall.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FoldingLaundry View Post
Here's a question, If we are practicing the 10-20% rule of thumb but are playing well is there anything wrong with pocketing our profit then moving on to the next poker room so we only have 1 buy-in on the table if that is an option where we live?
There Absolutely nothing wrong with this and I HIGHLY recommend it because in essence it is starting the next session.

When I'm in building a bankroll mode, I will table change, rathole, put the profits in my pocket, and buy-in to the next table and I will rinse and repeat this all day as long as I'm playing my A-game or B-game... So yeah, if you can somehow pocket the profits in accordance with your casinos rules, then do so. If you have to change poker rooms that is fine as well. Sometimes, I'll take a break, go eat, come back in an hour, and buy back in (most casinos require you to be gone for an hour before you can buy back in for less)

Last edited by dgiharris; 10-12-2013 at 06:52 AM.
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Old 10-12-2013, 06:52 AM   #5760
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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That's a shame

All good points on the mental side of building a bankroll though. I think that just getting up immediately and leaving is *much* better than what I see a lot of people do, which is to just shut down and try to play super tight. It kills their winrate, bleeds them of chips by playing suboptimally, then when they do get into a hand everyone knows that they have a tight range and only gives them action when crushed. When it's time to go it's time to go, just leave.
I had an interesting problem/dilemma tonight.

I murdered the 10/25nl game but since its such a small player pool and close knit community I didn't want to be perceived as a hit-n-runner, so I stayed two more orbits and folded everything but AA/KK. After the two orbits, I called it a day.

Had I been in Vegas or LA or a casino I don't often play in, I would have just hit-n-run after I hit my monster pot. But since this is my main casino, I didn't want to be known as "that guy".

But for what its worth, I had completely mentally checked out of the game and snap folded several playable hands. Once I had stayed for an acceptable amount of time, I racked up and left.

You can check it out on my PG&C thread,
https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...inder-1333131/[/COLOR]
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Old 10-12-2013, 11:30 AM   #5761
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Thanks, I'm pretty happy to have hit my goal with a month to spare. I'm pretty sure I posted my $50k goal somewhere in this thread or one of the "what's your goal for 2013" threads. Max buy-in at Red Rock is $300 which is where I play most of the time. I don't keep track of hours but my average session is around 5-6 hours. Can't really play longer than that without getting off my game and going into semi-spew mode.
6hrs/session X 256 sessions = 1536 hrs. $50,000 / 1536 = $ 32.55 per hour

From what i've read that would be a very good rate for $2/$5. Is this just a year long heater or am i missing something ?
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Old 10-12-2013, 12:32 PM   #5762
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Originally Posted by Guy on the End View Post

I understand mitigating risk but is variance really so high that you bust 20% of the time you're deep at a juicy table?
Back when the structure for all games below 10/20 at Commerce were 40bb buyins or so, I used to play 3/5 (200 buyin) whenever I didn't have to work weekends. I'd roll in at around 8 or 9 PM on Friday after work with 150-200bb on me. I'd generally play like a jackass with the 40bb stack until I got it up to 100bb or so. If I managed to run it up close to 200bb before I started feeling tired, I was locked in for some mega 30+ hour grind due to how horrendously everyone in that game played a deepstack.

In one of these multi-day sessions, I managed to get ~500bb in by the turn with 88 on a AdKd8s9s board vs AKo. Even though in that case I was only a ~10% chance to lose, he could have easily had AsKs, or a big combo draw that put him close to a 30% chance to bust me. Pretty sure that hand inspired me to seek advice in this thread: NL Stack:Bankroll Issue

Spoiler:


As for ratholing/hit-and-run/going south: please don't. Unless you have previous constraints on your time, it's an easy spot to keep people happier and the game running. Pretty typical scenario is when two big stacks go at it and a whale gets stacked. Stacker snap quits and the whale gets angry and quits as well, causing the game to effectively break.

Even by just giving the illusion that an opponent's money can still be won back (even though you're in lockdown), you'll greatly improve the game short-term, and may actually show other people that it's the correct play as well. These types of metagame decisions shouldn't be made by only considering your immediate situation.
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Old 10-12-2013, 01:19 PM   #5763
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Everyone should read Tommy Angelo's "Elements of Poker" especially the elements on quitting.

Last night I played $1/2 and lost $60 in an hour while waiting for $3/5. I get called to $3/5 and win over $1200 in just under 4 hours. My happiness was at an 8.

I could continue playing and if I win it might go to a 9 or even a 10 if I have a +$2K session. If I maintain or lose $100-300 my happiness drops from an 8 to a 4/5. If I get coolered for my stack my happiness goes negative (madness) and I might tilt off the $800 I have in my wallet.

I cashed out, got a delicious ribeye steak with my points and am still happy this morning.
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Old 10-12-2013, 01:49 PM   #5764
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Originally Posted by stran View Post
6hrs/session X 256 sessions = 1536 hrs. $50,000 / 1536 = $ 32.55 per hour

From what i've read that would be a very good rate for $2/$5. Is this just a year long heater or am i missing something ?
Sounds about right. 1/2 is easy.
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Old 10-16-2013, 06:04 PM   #5765
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Sounds about right. 1/2 is easy.
Let's say optimistically 30 hands/hour. That's 54 bb/100. Pretty sure that's not a sustainable win rate anywhere, not even 2 NL.
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Old 10-16-2013, 06:55 PM   #5766
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Originally Posted by BradleyT View Post
Everyone should read Tommy Angelo's "Elements of Poker" especially the elements on quitting.

Last night I played $1/2 and lost $60 in an hour while waiting for $3/5. I get called to $3/5 and win over $1200 in just under 4 hours. My happiness was at an 8.

I could continue playing and if I win it might go to a 9 or even a 10 if I have a +$2K session. If I maintain or lose $100-300 my happiness drops from an 8 to a 4/5. If I get coolered for my stack my happiness goes negative (madness) and I might tilt off the $800 I have in my wallet.

I cashed out, got a delicious ribeye steak with my points and am still happy this morning.
In b4 your -2k session with Advil for breakfast.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:32 PM   #5767
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Let's say optimistically 30 hands/hour. That's 54 bb/100. Pretty sure that's not a sustainable win rate anywhere, not even 2 NL.
Come play at the Red Rock, it sure is. Up $3,926 so far this month.
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Old 10-16-2013, 08:36 PM   #5768
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I have tough believing someone that lives in Vegas will remain in 1/2 when beating it for more than 15bb/hr.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:14 PM   #5769
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I have tough believing someone that lives in Vegas will remain in 1/2 when beating it for more than 15bb/hr.
I just play for fun and 1/2 is low variance easy money. Also just spent a lot on a house down payment and reno, draining the life roll a bit.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:17 PM   #5770
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Still doesn't make sense.

Would I play 4/8 limit even though it is low variance easy money? No.

Your other reasoning still just sounds like some weird excuse. Why do you even post here is my question when you're literally crushing it as hard as it is humanly possible.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:26 PM   #5771
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Still doesn't make sense.

Would I play 4/8 limit even though it is low variance easy money? No.

Your other reasoning still just sounds like some weird excuse. Why do you even post here is my question when you're literally crushing it as hard as it is humanly possible.
If 4/8 was fun for you, sure. I don't play to make a living. I do play 2/5 on occasion when the game looks good, but the game at RR usually sucks.
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Old 10-16-2013, 09:36 PM   #5772
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Just curious why anyone would rather enjoy being the biggest gold fish in the bowl, especially when that bowl is placed next to the ocean.
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Old 10-16-2013, 10:14 PM   #5773
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Still doesn't make sense.

Would I play 4/8 limit even though it is low variance easy money? No.

Your other reasoning still just sounds like some weird excuse. Why do you even post here is my question when you're literally crushing it as hard as it is humanly possible.
Surely you kid when you say 4/8 is easy money and low variance
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Old 10-16-2013, 11:19 PM   #5774
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am confused, are people questioning dgi leaving a good table if 20% of your roll is on the table?

If anything that rule is way too lenient, I had/have a 10% rule and for people with poker as their sole source of income it should probably be lower.

Sitting with 20% of your roll in front of you is terribad.
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Old 10-17-2013, 12:07 AM   #5775
peac b the journey
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BOT or at least 30% of it. That's how Ivey climes the ranks.

Obviously this isn't true for all players including me. But after playing poker in the casino since I was 16 and I'm now 27.5... Played for three years for a living, wsop circuit ring etc... I find the game will not fulfill a happy life unless you are playing 5-10+ on a regular basis with a comfortable roll. Think about it, it's not worth the stress unless you're balling. Any of you grinding 1-2 for a living I'm sure can make money elsewhere in life.

Go big or go home.
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