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Old 10-05-2013, 05:07 PM   #5726
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monsieur View Post
question about live results tracking.

Standard procedure is (right?): log in start time and buy in, log in if you add money, log time & cashing when you get out.

Dosen't this hide the variance within session?

Do people just accept this or is there a way to get a finer grain with apps today? (ie. create check spots within session?)
That's pretty much what I do. Yea it hides a little bit of the variance, but it's not as bad as logging only sessions online would be. Live you're getting about 30 hands/hour, so you're still getting a pretty frequent sampling every 200 hands or so on average.

I wouldn't want to dick with an app at the table for more detailed numbers, it distracts from watching the rest of the game, which is much more +EV than knowing just how stuck I am at the moment.
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Old 10-06-2013, 03:05 AM   #5727
boyrico
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Since 8/1/2013
5/5 commerce
Thoughts?

Can probably say I've been running more good than bad, but also have been trying to minimize losses on coolers.. Trying to make better folds but still make ******ed Q-high hero calls here and there


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Old 10-06-2013, 07:15 AM   #5728
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Teach me Master
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Old 10-06-2013, 11:50 AM   #5729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Crozbee View Post
KF, are you the Pau Gasol looking dude that I always see at CT?
Nope, but I know who you are talking about. Haven't seen him since live opened.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Az0r_au View Post
@KF, jesus you're beating 1/2 for 40bb/hr over like 120hrs that's insane. Nice work man.
Thanks. Doubt it is sustainable but they are amazingly easy games. I had seperate 20+ and 12+ (I have to go back to look at exact numbers) win streaks.

Based on raw data I should just play 1/2 full time, but I'm sure it would drop 10+BI if I had significant volume.
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Old 10-07-2013, 11:59 AM   #5730
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A very simple Question. The only live Game that i can play in my area is a 2/2 € Max buy in 400. rake is 10% cap to 10€, only when Flop Drops. (Pretty High). Player Pool is fishy (a few tags and a lot of weak tight/passive and aggro donks) and There are always 3-4 Big stacks 200+BB at the table. What Hourly can Archive a Good TAG in such a Game?

Last edited by Twentythrees; 10-07-2013 at 12:06 PM.
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Old 10-07-2013, 07:57 PM   #5731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If I have a $4000 BR playing 1/2, should I leave the game once I've made a certain amount? In other words, what is the maximum percentage of my BR should I have on the table?
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Old 10-07-2013, 08:21 PM   #5732
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by n0npareil View Post
If I have a $4000 BR playing 1/2, should I leave the game once I've made a certain amount? In other words, what is the maximum percentage of my BR should I have on the table?
I see no reason to quit and pull money off based on % of bankroll when you're up. If you were rolled to start the session, losing everything that you have in front of you when you're up won't change that fact. You'll still be rolled to play the game.

Now if you find that you're changing your play style when you get up big, or you're only deep against players that are better than you (fish all have $200-300, sharks have $800, you have $800), then there are game condition arguments to be made for leaving the game.

But if the table is still favorable, winning $400 is not enough reason to leave. (Or whatever number.)
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Old 10-07-2013, 09:07 PM   #5733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twentythrees View Post
A very simple Question. The only live Game that i can play in my area is a 2/2 € Max buy in 400. rake is 10% cap to 10€, only when Flop Drops. (Pretty High). Player Pool is fishy (a few tags and a lot of weak tight/passive and aggro donks) and There are always 3-4 Big stacks 200+BB at the table. What Hourly can Archive a Good TAG in such a Game?

Anyone???
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Old 10-08-2013, 12:39 AM   #5734
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What hourly? Play to find out.
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Old 10-08-2013, 01:10 AM   #5735
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Twentythrees View Post
Anyone???
maybe like $15 if youre really good

idk
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Old 10-09-2013, 12:57 AM   #5736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Monsieur View Post
question about live results tracking.

Standard procedure is (right?): log in start time and buy in, log in if you add money, log time & cashing when you get out.

Dosen't this hide the variance within session?

Do people just accept this or is there a way to get a finer grain with apps today? (ie. create check spots within session?)
I've just started playing live seriously (used to play online as my only source of income during college) and was actually just thinking about this exact question.

Even if you only observe your profits at random time points, you can still estimate the variance of your hourly profit based on these data using a formula I came up with. This is useful if you want to build confidence interval estimates on your hourly rate that take into account sample size considerations. You'd still need a reasonable sample size for the confidence intervals to be valid though. I don't know of an app that does this, but I'll probably just do it "manually."

Also, looking at profits every several hours in a sense inflates variance because you're looking at sums of hourly profits instead of the hourly profits themselves. I suppose if you're graphing the data and interpolating between data points, then yeah, you're hiding some variance in that case.

Last edited by d_saxton; 10-09-2013 at 01:02 AM.
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Old 10-10-2013, 02:55 PM   #5737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

nobody cares?
cool
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Old 10-10-2013, 11:44 PM   #5738
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by n0npareil View Post
If I have a $4000 BR playing 1/2, should I leave the game once I've made a certain amount? In other words, what is the maximum percentage of my BR should I have on the table?
There is a camp that believes fervently that you don't leave a game no matter what as long as you are on your A-game...

but as someone who has had to grow a roll from scratch several times, my answer is more pragmatic.

There is only so much risk we should be willing to take with our rolls. I mean, the whole point is to grow our rolls and we can't grow our rolls if we aren't able to leave tables when we are up.

To that end, my advice is that when you are at $4k, the most "profit" you should be willing to risk is 20%, so when you hit $800-ish, it's time to just pack it up and leave.

It really comes down to objectives. When my bankroll is $4k, my objective is to BUILD MY ROLL. To that end, there is only so much risk I should be willing to take. Or put another way, lets say there is a table full of mega-donks at the 25/50nl table. These players are the worst players EVER, they love to overcall and gamboool. Minimum buy-in to the game is $4k. Should we take our entire $4k bankroll over to that game?

No. No we shouldn't. Because we can not afford the consequences of busting our entire roll (google "Utility of Money")

If I were to flip the argument around and look at it from a different point of view, A good question to ask would be: "What are the consequences of cashing out when 10% or 20% of our bankroll is on the table?" Is it really so bad to do so?

Below are two tables which show a 10% BRM and 20% BRM winstop respectively

Sessions.... 10% winstop... 20% winstop

......0 ...............4000...............4000
......1 ...............4400............... 4800
......2 ...............4840............... 5760
......3 ...............5324............... 6912
......4............... 5856 ............... 8294
......5 ...............6442............... 9953
......6 ...............7086............... 11944
......7 ...............7795............... 14333
......8 ...............8574............... 17199
......9 ...............9432............... 20639
......10...............10375............... 24767

So as you can see, there are worst things in the world than increasing our bankroll in 10% and 20% chunks. Obviously there will be some losing sessions in there as well... but the point really is about risk vs reward and how much risk can/should we tolerate in building our rolls.

This kinda reminds me of the tortiose vs the hare. Slow and steady wins the race. Poker is one long session, so we can take a deep breath, relax, and cash out. The game will be there tomorrow.

Another aspect is the mental aspect of cashing out repeatedly. The piece of mind that comes from making money and cashing out goes a long ways towards keeping us on our A-game for the next session. The reverse of this is having a $4k roll, being at a super juicy table, getting up to $1.2k and then getting coolered or a bad beat. The fact that we made $2k in Sklansky bucks but have no real money to show for it isn't going to help our mental state. We will be obsessing about that "suck out" all the way to our next session. Gee, wonder how good we will play with that ball of tilt inside our chest???

Anyways, when I am in "build my bankroll" mode then I adhere to the 10% - 20% rule of thumb, I will cash out once 10% of my bankroll is reached, but if I'm at a super juicy table I will double that to 20%.

Once I have a healthy bankroll, then I can loosen my BRM or even take shots at bigger games or tolerate more risk and play with even 30% of my bankroll on the table if I'm at a ridiculously juicy table that can make my entire monthly nut in one night... But until I'm well rolled, I will adhere faithfully to my 10% - 20% rule of thumb depending on the table dynamics.
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:22 AM   #5739
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Finally hit my goal of $50k in one year. Started keeping track of every-day results on 11/16/12 and made it to $50k as of 10/7/13, almost all of it at 1/2. Some stats and graph:

Total sessions - 256
Total profit - $50,368
Biggest win - $2,156 ($1/2)
Biggest loss - $1,855 (combo of $1/3 and 5/10)
Longest win streak - 25
Longest losing streak - 4
Total winning sessions - 190
Total losing sessions - 66
Win percentage - 74.2%
Average win - $196.75
1 session of 5/10, 21 sessions of 2/5, 234 sessions of 1/2

Total profit:

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Old 10-11-2013, 04:42 AM   #5740
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Finally hit my goal of $50k in one year. Started keeping track of every-day results on 11/16/12 and made it to $50k as of 10/7/13, almost all of it at 1/2. Some stats and graph:

Total sessions - 256
Total profit - $50,368
Biggest win - $2,156 ($1/2)
Biggest loss - $1,855 (combo of $1/3 and 5/10)
Longest win streak - 25
Longest losing streak - 4
Total winning sessions - 190
Total losing sessions - 66
Win percentage - 74.2%
Average win - $196.75
1 session of 5/10, 21 sessions of 2/5, 234 sessions of 1/2

Total profit:

Congrats man that's awesome. What was max buy in for the 1/2 game? How many hours was this over? 50k to me is a really big number to hit with mainly 1/2 games (the game I play is 200 max BI) so that is really impressive.
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:47 AM   #5741
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Originally Posted by Big Run View Post
Congrats man that's awesome. What was max buy in for the 1/2 game? How many hours was this over? 50k to me is a really big number to hit with mainly 1/2 games (the game I play is 200 max BI) so that is really impressive.
Thanks, I'm pretty happy to have hit my goal with a month to spare. I'm pretty sure I posted my $50k goal somewhere in this thread or one of the "what's your goal for 2013" threads. Max buy-in at Red Rock is $300 which is where I play most of the time. I don't keep track of hours but my average session is around 5-6 hours. Can't really play longer than that without getting off my game and going into semi-spew mode.
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Old 10-11-2013, 07:57 AM   #5742
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Finally hit my goal of $50k in one year. Started keeping track of every-day results on 11/16/12 and made it to $50k as of 10/7/13, almost all of it at 1/2. Some stats and graph:

Total sessions - 256
Total profit - $50,368
Biggest win - $2,156 ($1/2)
Biggest loss - $1,855 (combo of $1/3 and 5/10)
Longest win streak - 25
Longest losing streak - 4
Total winning sessions - 190
Total losing sessions - 66
Win percentage - 74.2%
Average win - $196.75
1 session of 5/10, 21 sessions of 2/5, 234 sessions of 1/2

Total profit:

Impressive work ethic! I've heard good things about the quality of games at Red Rock. Congrats.
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Old 10-11-2013, 08:21 AM   #5743
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Finally hit my goal of $50k in one year. Started keeping track of every-day results on 11/16/12 and made it to $50k as of 10/7/13, almost all of it at 1/2. Some stats and graph:

Total sessions - 256
Total profit - $50,368
Biggest win - $2,156 ($1/2)
Biggest loss - $1,855 (combo of $1/3 and 5/10)
Longest win streak - 25
Longest losing streak - 4
Total winning sessions - 190
Total losing sessions - 66
Win percentage - 74.2%
Average win - $196.75
1 session of 5/10, 21 sessions of 2/5, 234 sessions of 1/2
Sick results! One glaring statistic missing though: Hours Played.
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Old 10-11-2013, 08:52 AM   #5744
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Thanks, I'm pretty happy to have hit my goal with a month to spare. I'm pretty sure I posted my $50k goal somewhere in this thread or one of the "what's your goal for 2013" threads. Max buy-in at Red Rock is $300 which is where I play most of the time. I don't keep track of hours but my average session is around 5-6 hours. Can't really play longer than that without getting off my game and going into semi-spew mode.
Especially impressive since isn't Red Rock often an OMC-fest?

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
There is a camp that believes fervently that you don't leave a game no matter what as long as you are on your A-game...

but as someone who has had to grow a roll from scratch several times, my answer is more pragmatic.

There is only so much risk we should be willing to take with our rolls. I mean, the whole point is to grow our rolls and we can't grow our rolls if we aren't able to leave tables when we are up.
.
.
.
Once I have a healthy bankroll, then I can loosen my BRM or even take shots at bigger games or tolerate more risk and play with even 30% of my bankroll on the table if I'm at a ridiculously juicy table that can make my entire monthly nut in one night... But until I'm well rolled, I will adhere faithfully to my 10% - 20% rule of thumb depending on the table dynamics.
Another excellent dgi post. I finally am realizing that to grow any sort of a roll I need to do it one buy-in at a time. Sure, I would LOVE to be the crusher with $1000+ stack at 1/2, but that guy's been playing a lot longer, has a solid bankroll, and is LAGing it up. I can't do that yet. Double up, cash out, be motivated for the "next" session.
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Old 10-11-2013, 09:42 AM   #5745
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If you're avg session is 5.5 hours, then 50k profit is $35 an hour. Wtf

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Old 10-11-2013, 10:41 AM   #5746
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've only recently moved up to 2/5 from 1/2 and it's depressing that my 2/5 hourly is less than some people's 1/2 hourly. I've only played 200 hours, so I know it probably is 90% variance.

Still though, just thinking of 1/2 (and 2/5!) games that juicy makes me jealous.

Alternatively, I could just suck at poker and you could be a wizard. That might also be a reason.
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Old 10-11-2013, 11:49 AM   #5747
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Illiterate View Post
Impressive work ethic! I've heard good things about the quality of games at Red Rock. Congrats.
Thanks. I also work full time during the day, but I work from home, so it's not really work I guess. The RR games are pretty good at night.

Quote:
Originally Posted by fredd-bird View Post
Sick results! One glaring statistic missing though: Hours Played.
Thanks. I don't keep track of hours, doesn't really matter to me. I just figure my average session is 4-6 hours (closer to 5-6 though) so somewhere between $33-39/hr

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Especially impressive since isn't Red Rock often an OMC-fest?
Daytime yes it is, I would never play in the afternoon there. The games at night are pretty good, plenty of action and fishy players to go around. There are a few solid regs, but it's still $1/2...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Duke0424 View Post
If you're avg session is 5.5 hours, then 50k profit is $35 an hour. Wtf

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Sounds about right
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Old 10-11-2013, 12:24 PM   #5748
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
There is a camp that believes fervently that you don't leave a game no matter what as long as you are on your A-game...

but as someone who has had to grow a roll from scratch several times, my answer is more pragmatic.

There is only so much risk we should be willing to take with our rolls. I mean, the whole point is to grow our rolls and we can't grow our rolls if we aren't able to leave tables when we are up.

To that end, my advice is that when you are at $4k, the most "profit" you should be willing to risk is 20%, so when you hit $800-ish, it's time to just pack it up and leave.

It really comes down to objectives. When my bankroll is $4k, my objective is to BUILD MY ROLL. To that end, there is only so much risk I should be willing to take. Or put another way, lets say there is a table full of mega-donks at the 25/50nl table. These players are the worst players EVER, they love to overcall and gamboool. Minimum buy-in to the game is $4k. Should we take our entire $4k bankroll over to that game?

No. No we shouldn't. Because we can not afford the consequences of busting our entire roll (google "Utility of Money")

If I were to flip the argument around and look at it from a different point of view, A good question to ask would be: "What are the consequences of cashing out when 10% or 20% of our bankroll is on the table?" Is it really so bad to do so?

Below are two tables which show a 10% BRM and 20% BRM winstop respectively

Sessions.... 10% winstop... 20% winstop

......0 ...............4000...............4000
......1 ...............4400............... 4800
......2 ...............4840............... 5760
......3 ...............5324............... 6912
......4............... 5856 ............... 8294
......5 ...............6442............... 9953
......6 ...............7086............... 11944
......7 ...............7795............... 14333
......8 ...............8574............... 17199
......9 ...............9432............... 20639
......10...............10375............... 24767

So as you can see, there are worst things in the world than increasing our bankroll in 10% and 20% chunks. Obviously there will be some losing sessions in there as well... but the point really is about risk vs reward and how much risk can/should we tolerate in building our rolls.

This kinda reminds me of the tortiose vs the hare. Slow and steady wins the race. Poker is one long session, so we can take a deep breath, relax, and cash out. The game will be there tomorrow.

Another aspect is the mental aspect of cashing out repeatedly. The piece of mind that comes from making money and cashing out goes a long ways towards keeping us on our A-game for the next session. The reverse of this is having a $4k roll, being at a super juicy table, getting up to $1.2k and then getting coolered or a bad beat. The fact that we made $2k in Sklansky bucks but have no real money to show for it isn't going to help our mental state. We will be obsessing about that "suck out" all the way to our next session. Gee, wonder how good we will play with that ball of tilt inside our chest???

Anyways, when I am in "build my bankroll" mode then I adhere to the 10% - 20% rule of thumb, I will cash out once 10% of my bankroll is reached, but if I'm at a super juicy table I will double that to 20%.

Once I have a healthy bankroll, then I can loosen my BRM or even take shots at bigger games or tolerate more risk and play with even 30% of my bankroll on the table if I'm at a ridiculously juicy table that can make my entire monthly nut in one night... But until I'm well rolled, I will adhere faithfully to my 10% - 20% rule of thumb depending on the table dynamics.
Appreciate this post dgi, explained it pretty well. Thanks.
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:01 PM   #5749
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by zoltan View Post
Especially impressive since isn't Red Rock often an OMC-fest?



Another excellent dgi post. I finally am realizing that to grow any sort of a roll I need to do it one buy-in at a time. Sure, I would LOVE to be the crusher with $1000+ stack at 1/2, but that guy's been playing a lot longer, has a solid bankroll, and is LAGing it up. I can't do that yet. Double up, cash out, be motivated for the "next" session.
I remember one time I was growing my roll. My bankroll was $6k and I was playing 2/5nl.

I bought into the game $400 and very first hand I got something ridiculous like AA/KK vs 3 opponents, flopped top set and got it all-in on the flop and got 2 callers.

BOOM, I won $900-ish dollars.

Within two orbits it occurs to me this table is super juicy, villains are the worst aggros ever. Later, I limp in a multiway pot and turn the stone cold nuts, 1 villain shoves, I call and BOOM I win another $1k.

So within 1 hour I managed to win $2k and the table was still ridiculously juicy. Two of the super donks are sitting $3k deep, everyone else is around $1k deep... but I just crossed over the 20% threshold.

I'm at a dream table, people are drinking, bets in the dark, etc etc but....
30% of my bankroll is on the table. I was on the button and I immediately folded my hand without looking at it, racked up, and cashed out.

leaving that table was hard, but I knew that if I could leave that table and follow my rules, then I could make it as a pro. You see, if you can't follow your own rules then you have no chance of making it as a pro. Discipline is just as important as patience which is just as important as focus which is just as important as a hundred other intangible concepts that separate consistent winners from everyone else.


The following joke helps keep me in the right state of mind as far as all of this is concerned.

A young bull and an old bull are on a hill overlooking a field of cows. The young bull turns to the old bull and says, "Hey, I got an idea, lets run down the hill, screw a cow, and run back up the hill."

The old bull chews on a tuft of grass for a minute and then turns to the young eager bull and says, "Hell son, i've got a better idea, lets walk down the hill and screw them all..."


Players that could "never leave such a juicy table" remind me of the young bull. Players that can't follow their own rules remind of the young bull. Players that don't truly appreciate risk and the consequences of their actions remind me of the young bull.

And I vow to not be that young bull. I want to be the old bull. So when I'm building my bankroll and I hit that 20% then it is time to go. No ifs ands or buts. No next hand, no one more orbit, no waiting till the blinds... just rack it up and leave...
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Old 10-11-2013, 04:09 PM   #5750
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
I'm at a dream table, people are drinking, bets in the dark, etc etc but....
30% of my bankroll is on the table. I was on the button and I immediately folded my hand without looking at it, racked up, and cashed out.

I have a little more tolerance for sticking around than you do ... but good god man, I hope you took a walk, grabbed a meal, and came an hour later to sit back down in that game with a standard buy in.
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