I was tilted and was playing bad -- small mistakes, but as we all know, small mistakes can turn into big ones pretty quickly, especially if they're of the "I should have never been in this hand to begin with" variety.

I took a month off -- part because of personal commitments but part because of a downswing worse than yours in 1/2 and 2/5. I just started back last week and, through three sessions, am playing better and the results are there. This is probably the first time I actually cognizantly said "stop, take a break," so the sample size is small, but through 3 sessions it's worked.

Imo, there are 2 components to a downswing

#1 Negative variance
#2 Bad play

imo, most downswings are set off by #1 but are then exacerbated by #2.

You need to sit down and figure out EXACTLY what are the root causes of your losing sessions. Its too easy to just say, "meh bad beat cooler suck outs..." but the reality is, if you are honest with yourself, your losing sessions will have a #2 component.

Speaking for myself, when my downswings are mostly due to #2 (90% of my downswings are due to #2), then I take time off. First one day, then 2 days, then 4 days, then 8 days until I'm back to playing my A-game.

If my downswing is merely due to #1 and I'm still playing my A-game and B-game, I just push through it. Normally doesn't last more than 2 or 3 sessions at the most.

Again, it is vital that you are honest with yourself on the nature of your downswing. It helps to keep a poker journal you can review.

Check your range of hands played ... even a shift from NOT playing 98 v playing 9T can make a differnce. Just take a few hands out of your range, opponents will think you have tightened up (you have) and give more respect which will allow you to take down more pots without a showdown. I feel I am not playing my best when most of my hands get to a showdown. Sure, that would be a great discussion because technically you want 3 or 4 streets of value from all hands right? But the more streets you play the more you can be beat.

I also increase my raise (and less often) sizes to cut down on mutiway pots a bit.

If you feel you are pressing then a break is needed but if you are 'just playing my game' and getting hit with varriance, then just tighten the screws a bit and you will be fine.

I am finding more and more that you want to cut down on showdowns unless they are all-ins and you are putting your money in good. GL

I think the best remedy is to keep playing and study/review more. im currently on a 10bi downswing myself and am having a hard time staying positive. im trying to just keep playing process oriented poker and analyze my game and plug any leaks I can find. Remember that if you're not playing your hourly rate is a big fat ZERO, so if you feel okay and your not tilting too bad ride it out. Heres to a sick heater!

What exactly do you mean by a poker journal? what would the contents be?

only 2 or 3 sessions of a downswing at most? i think most people don´t realize how crazy poker variance can be. imo it is possible for a recreational live player to be on a lifetime upswing or lifetime downswing based on pure variance.

Thats a scary thought.

Not sure this qualifies as a downswing.

pretty easy to hit a 20k hands downswing. how much is that in live poker, 600 hours? how many beginning players would actually play through that without quitting if they actually happen to have such a downswing right from the start?
surely it is unlikely, but not as unlikely as somewhat might assume.

i´m down 2k bb in ev this month over 16k hands or so. sucks but i can take it now, and online poker is different (but only in terms of time frame), but if that had hit me when i started i´m sure i wouldnt play right now.

When I go through a downswing I am honest with myself and ask, Is this negatively affected my future sessions, if it is mentally I take a break for as long as I need , a day, a month whatever, if its honestly not affecting my play at all, I will keep playing forever

In 650 logged hours of 1/2 NLHE I am making $18.20 a hour and in the midst of a 120 hour break even stretch.

The biggest downswing I had would be 1400bb....

That included two days in a row of playing against maniacs where I chose to short buy, sit to their immediate right and shove $150 to $200 into their light $35 openings because they would play for stacks light.

I lost around ten pots like that, only twice did I get my money in bad.

Variance against maniacs can be a bitch.

The bad play within my downswing was a few bad hero calls and also calling oop with scs and axs to play 3 way pots....then just check/fold when I miss...no plan..pure fish trying to get even spew....

I have been told I could go as long as 500 hours break even easily...scary.

I resemble this remark!

Ghasyettobooka500bb"downswing"in1,217hrsatlive1/3NLG

If this is true then you really are on a sick lifetime heater. I've lost that in one session at 1/2 on several occasions while getting it in as a massive favorite or huge cooler (set over set) each time.

It for sure can be massive, if you get to feel how bad variance can strike you. But i believe in what DGI says also: the worst thing about variance is that it often will compound itself when you start playing horrible because of semitilt/frustration of variance.

I have my own way of handle bad beats,when i feel like i am about to boil over i am honest with myself to realize that- and i usually nit it up and fold hands until i feel more in balance. As i see it it is extremely important that you are able to be totally honest with yourself at this point, and dont lie for yourself. On rare ocassions i just get so tilted from ugly bad beats/coolers that i know i wont be able to play good anymore, and i just quit the session and take some days off poker.

The important thing is that you figure out a way to handle this aspect of poker- a way that will work for you. What works for person A not necessearly work for person B.

Yeah, this is something people often overlook. I had a discussion with a friend who is a top online cash grinder(he was #1 at his stake in 2011) and he told me when he almost quit when he had a 600k hand breakeven stretch. Think how many hands that is live. Most people haven't the slightest clue about what the long run is.

At 30 hands/hour, 20 hours per week, 52 weeks a year ...
that's 19.23 years. HOLY. ****.

yeah, but it is practically a statistical impossibility live. the same thing that happened to your friend could never happen to a live player. Playing llnl full time, even a BE year (about 50K hands) should be a once-in-a-lifetime experience for a top tier player...

Holy **** what live game are you in that you get 30 hph?

someone posited 30 hph recently as typical and no one corrected him... youre right though, it is high.

Gutter?

That's a pretty terrifying stat. Though it should make anyone who is on a live downswing and doubting their skills feel better about their situation. Or maybe worse, since nobody really knows anything and "long-run" is unattainable?

I've seen this stat all over the place, and it tracks with what I see in most rooms, give or take a little bit. When I've counted dealers on single downs the good ones can get between 15 and 18 hands in a half hour. Bad dealers get less. Weird downs or tables where some idiot is tanking hard all the time get you less, but they're not horribly common, 30 is a pretty good round number estimate for calculations like this.

Great thread. I can't believe I just now found it.

Do people still use Poker Journal?

What are today's best win rates at 1/2 and 2/5?

I disagree re: short stacking. If you're not playing for a living, it can be a nice way to learn the game w/o buying in deep. I started buying into $2/5 for $200 and worked my way up after getting comfortable and learning about how the game plays, etc.

Calling you out o. This 1 sir simply do not believe your statement that a top online grinder was b/e for 600k hands. I have played a ton online and live and know many online crushers none of whom ever went more than 50k break even. This encompasses an extremely large sample size of players and hands played. These are true crushers w/r greater than 3BB/100 online

Youre failing to take into account the massive difference between the ratio of SD to winrate in live and online poker.

The best live players make around 10bb/hr, which translates into about 30bb/100.

The best online players are making maybe what... 5bb/100. there are probably others who can probably give aq better estimate, but my understanding has always been that 5bb/100 is considered crushing most online stakes.

A lower winrate means that the same standard deviation can lead to much more severe downtrends.... think about it this way

600K hands at an expected winrate of 5bb/100 has an expectation of 30KBB. Assuming a SD of around 300BB/100 (which is around typical) you have a standard deviation for the whole 600K sample of around 23000... which means all you really have to do is run about 1.5SD below expectation or more to break even for the whole sample.

Now, assume a typical live crusher winrate of around 30bb/100 (im actually using an estimate ive seen you post)... now the expectation for 600K hands is around 180Kbb... the standard deviation is about the same live and online, so the standard deviation is going to vbe the same 300bb/100 or 23000bb for the whole sample. which puts you at a little under 8 standard deviations below expectation (a near statistical impossibility)....