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Old 07-23-2013, 03:19 AM   #5376
maketimeeveryday
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Im a 1/2 live player and am currently on the biggest downswing in my allbeit short career. im currently -1600 for the month of july. typically my downswings are between 3-4BI. I am generally a TAG player if this helps.
Here's to us running and playing well! We're about to go on a sick heater
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:21 AM   #5377
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Here's to us running and playing well! We're about to go on a sick heater
we could sure use it!
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:22 AM   #5378
maketimeeveryday
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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I haven't played a ton live yet, so I don't have any input here. But I'd like to post a similar question.

Usually people say to do 10,000 repetitions at anything to see where you're at. How many hands per hour are we assuming? 1 hand every 2 minutes, 30 hands per hour, 10K hands will take about 333 hours and once I hit that I'll have a good benchmark on my hourly going forward?

Sorry to intrude on this post, but was thinking of making a thread for a few days, it's related to this.
I've read that you really want 1000 hrs logged before you can be too sure of anything. Pretty dumb of me to make this thread, but I was just curious as I'm approaching 500 hrs pretty soon, and wanted to see the types of swings other players have went through in a relatively short amount of time.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:22 AM   #5379
FullrackZack
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I haven't played a ton live yet, so I don't have any input here. But I'd like to post a similar question.

Usually people say to do 10,000 repetitions at anything to see where you're at. How many hands per hour are we assuming? 1 hand every 2 minutes, 30 hands per hour, 10K hands will take about 333 hours and once I hit that I'll have a good benchmark on my hourly going forward?

Sorry to intrude on this post, but was thinking of making a thread for a few days, it's related to this.
I think 25-30 an hour is an agreeable estimate.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:25 AM   #5380
Neutrogena
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

Plenty of players have played poker their entire lives and still suck at it.

Time has changed and so has poker.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:34 AM   #5381
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

From March to the start of June this year I had a 14-15k downswing playing 2/5, 1/3, 1/2. It's possible to run worse than you can conceive off. I was getting coolered in huge pots in so many spots it was unreal.
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Old 07-23-2013, 04:19 AM   #5382
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Buying in short and playing is alot more +EV then buying in full and only playing a lesser amount of time
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Old 07-23-2013, 05:17 AM   #5383
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm not sure it is. Most players at 1/2 are frankly staggeringly bad and by buying in short you are capping your win rate. Say you have a roll of 1k$us, then buying in a couple of times for 200$ is definitely the way to go.

You may easily run good, flop a few big hands and spin your stack up. Furthermore as commented the variance of buying in short is off the scale. People like to see flops in 1/2 (and 2/5 and 1/3 etc etc!). Too often you will go 4 ways to the flop and end up getting it in with a marginal holding because there is so much money in the middle and you have so little back. You will lose a lot of these all ins.

Also as you sit with more the rake becomes much less of a factor. If there is a jackpot in the game and they rake 10% cap 5 then 6$ will be going out of nearly every pot you win. If that pot is 4 times bigger then the same amount will still be coming out of the pot.
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Old 07-23-2013, 06:48 AM   #5384
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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But it's fun saying all-in a lot and looking like a boss.
Its awesome saying all in when playing cash LOL

Geeze I just dont think Im good enough to be a deepstack live player yet. BUt Im not sure why I think like this. Maybe like I said above, im getting comfortable with the admission being $60 and could last 10 secs or 5 hours. Start making the admission $200 might take me out of my comfort zone

I can try the deepstack thing but everyone here looks at the REWARD PART OF THIS, but I LOOK AT THE RISK PART OF THIS. YEa I might not win $200 but Im not mad when I win only $50 or $60 or lose it

UGG GOT TO GET OFF THIS MONEY THING, they are just weapons at my disposal. I do know at some point if I want to try these mega long sessions Im going to have to become a good deepstack player.

Im on ice till Weds anyway but after I get a few feel good sessions, I might go for the deepstack buy in, bet the regs jaws will drop
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Old 07-23-2013, 09:09 AM   #5385
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

200 isn't deep stack. It's just normal cash game poker.

Also you need to stop seeing what you are buying in with as an admission. It's the wrong mentality. We came to win; it's not a theme park.
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Old 07-23-2013, 09:11 AM   #5386
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The second time getting stacked for $200ish is a bit easier than the first time. Assuming they're both suckouts and you got it in with the best of it.
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Old 07-23-2013, 09:23 AM   #5387
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's all relative. The first time u get sucked out on in a 2k pot (£ not $ so 3k$) is a urgh moment but you get used to playing with more money. It's impossible to play if you are worried too much about losing, especially when for most of your opponents it will be a fairly trivial sum of money.
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Old 07-23-2013, 11:35 AM   #5388
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Short stacking tickles me. When I shipped into the DOC at a camp in Stokes county back in 1982 I had $20 and a radio. I lost my money pretty quick and sold my radio to one guy and pawned it to another to get back in the game. I was shipping out two days later so it was even money I'd get jammed up if I lost it all.

Won about $75 and got my radio back. Won the next night too. Took my winnings to the next camp, where I was on work release and bought the poker game there.

Never been without a roll since and I still have the radio. It still plays. General Electric.

Scared money never wins. The only place where shortstacking made sense was back in the online days when you could buy in short to a dozen tables. There is no place for it in llsnl.
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Old 07-23-2013, 11:59 AM   #5389
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

Been playing live since black Friday....started about 10 to 20 hours a week, now play 20 to 30 hours a week....mostly 1-2 now almost all deep tables 500 buy in...though I tend to buy in for less (unless there is a whale then I cap off fast)

I probably play a lower variance style then a lot of 2+2ers seem too...(smaller pre flop raises, play very nitty in multi way pots, which I play a lot of do to the smaller pre flop raises, few big river bluffs...small buy in's in very aggressive tables...less 3 bets then I should, love to play reg fests though still enjoy a few big whales

my worst down swing was about $1400 in about 3 weeks...and my tilting defiantly contributed heavily two it... but it did kick me in the ass to work a lot on my mental game, which I think was well worth the $1400

my longest breakeven was about 2 month...I prolonged it a bit by cutting down hours of play...watched lots of poker videos and read a ton instead using the time revamp my game...

I know it's an illusion, but it seems when I go card dead for a week or two (something I handle very well now), the damn just seems to break one day...and the cards flood my way.
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:13 PM   #5390
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My longest b/e stretch was 800 hrs. I've had a few 1000bb downswings during the 3500 hr sample I have.
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:20 PM   #5391
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

I ran probably about as bad as is humanly possible and broke even over 400 hours and lost like 15/18 sessions in one streak. Some poor play and bad Hero calls here and there but nothing that would lead me to think that my winning play before/after the break even streak somehow failed during it.

I would consider it to be a statistical outlier occurrence of running bad.
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Old 07-23-2013, 12:55 PM   #5392
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

My largest downswing this year in about 400 hours of poker is around 7BI. I have a winrate at $11 hour (6+1 rake is a killer). I have had 3 downswings this year, 6BI, 6BI, and 7BI, so you have have swings live, just don't worry about it and continue to play your A game.

Make sure you aren't tilted going into play when in a rut, it just makes it worse...
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Old 07-23-2013, 01:53 PM   #5393
maketimeeveryday
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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I ran probably about as bad as is humanly possible and broke even over 400 hours and lost like 15/18 sessions in one streak. Some poor play and bad Hero calls here and there but nothing that would lead me to think that my winning play before/after the break even streak somehow failed during it.

I would consider it to be a statistical outlier occurrence of running bad.
I have just pulled out of that very same streak. 3-15 over 18 sessions. Like you said, made a few bad hero's here and there, but I really didn't play any different over this period. Def messed with my head a good bit.
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Old 07-23-2013, 01:56 PM   #5394
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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My largest downswing this year in about 400 hours of poker is around 7BI. I have a winrate at $11 hour (6+1 rake is a killer). I have had 3 downswings this year, 6BI, 6BI, and 7BI, so you have have swings live, just don't worry about it and continue to play your A game.

Make sure you aren't tilted going into play when in a rut, it just makes it worse...
Wow that is some steep rake! I play at a 5+1 and it reeeeeaally sucks. Tilting is actually one of the easiest things for me to control when it comes to poker. When I feel it creep in, which is pretty rarely, I snap leave. Guess I'm lucky how easy it is for me. I've heard the horror stories of tilt lol
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Old 07-23-2013, 01:56 PM   #5395
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

No offense but I'm simply going to assume I'm much much better than you are so like you going 3-15 has no real correlation to me going 3-15.

I say that because I've never read any of your posts etc... and do not mean it as an insult. All you can do is work harder and play better. Downswings make poker players or break poker players imo but with the # hands and the high winrates/low std dev you might not take a big DS for years.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:12 PM   #5396
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

Had 6 straight sessions at 1/2 and 2/5 where I lost 2BI's per session in April. Took a break, studied, posted hands, talked with friends about strategy, etc.... Been on a 16BI upswing over the last 12 sessions (all winning sessions). Bottom line, if you get your mind right and stay focused on each individual hand as it comes (NOT YOUR WINRATE) everything will balance out and you'll be back on track. Good luck.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:13 PM   #5397
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

I started off 2012 with a 13-7-1 streak over 138.83 hours at 1/3 NL for a mere $300 profit ($2.16/hr = 0.72 bb/hr).

Shortly afterwards, I went on a 32-3 streak over 355.3 hours for $16,846 ($47.39/hr = 15.8 bb/hr).

All playing within the same player pool and more-or-less utilizing the same playing style.

**** happens.

FWIW, I'm sitting at 121-43-1 in live 1/3 NL (73.3%), but I wouldn't consider myself a TAG.

GinbeforemovedtoWinratethreadG
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:19 PM   #5398
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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Originally Posted by Zidane Valor View Post
You do realize most poker players HATE these types of people, right? You're essentially going south, except you're moving to a different table (presumably online) so you think it's okay.

That makes the game infinitely worse. If everyone took their starting stack off the table and just played with the "profit", that would kill the game since money keeps coming off the table.

If you're any kind of decent player, you shouldn't be taking money off the table during the game. You should be hoping your opponents put MORE money on the table. If you go up from $60 to $100, then double up, you get $100 more instead of $60 more.
This. Short stack limits 90% of your arsenal. Build your bankroll out of the cardroom until you have 4 bi's or so if you have money coming in monthly.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:23 PM   #5399
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
I haven't played a ton live yet, so I don't have any input here. But I'd like to post a similar question.

Usually people say to do 10,000 repetitions at anything to see where you're at. How many hands per hour are we assuming? 1 hand every 2 minutes, 30 hands per hour, 10K hands will take about 333 hours and once I hit that I'll have a good benchmark on my hourly going forward?

Sorry to intrude on this post, but was thinking of making a thread for a few days, it's related to this.
10k hands?
july so far.
http://imageshack.us/f/809/ar73.png/

i think some might be in for a bloody surprise
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:14 PM   #5400
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

People seem to struggle with this concept but

THERE IS NO MAGIC NUMBER

I know uncertainty in life makes some people uncomfortable but there it is. The bigger the number the more sure you can be it is accurate. If that idea is difficult trying to quantify it is unlikely to help because your "feel" for big numbers and accuracy rates is also likely to be bad.

Focus on playing better and playing more and **** the rest.
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