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Old 07-22-2013, 02:36 PM   #5351
Havok
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
The irony is, people think that short stacking reduces variance when nothing can be further from the truth.

Short stacking INCREASES your variance and it also DECREASES the probability of you having a profitable session.

Here is a chart I developed a while ago regarding short stacking



as you can see, short stacking severely limits your "ability" to play.

It is counter intuitive but when you short stack, certain plays actually become not profitable. I did some modeling on set mining to show exactly what i'm talking about.

Here is a common situation (V1 raises to $14, V2 calls, Hero???) that occurs at 1/2nl just to SHOW how short stacking hurts your game. First lets take a look at being 100bb deep



now lets compare it to being 50bb deep



So what this means is that when you are short stack, you have to FOLD situations that could be very profitable simply because now as a short stack the situations is mathematically not profitable...


NOTE: The reason why 3-betting top ten hands is NO as a short stack is because raising ranges are typically JJ+, AK in LLSNL. Obviously, if you read that a particular aggro is raising wide then you can 3-bet a top ten hand against them.

NOTE 2: second graph says 3bb in the notes but should be 7bb
Excellent chart and reply. I've read about the theory of short and deep stack play in depth before, but it is really cool to see the numbers translated in to a chart and laid out like that. Bottom line: Don't short stack!
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Old 07-22-2013, 02:41 PM   #5352
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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Originally Posted by BackDownSouth View Post
Buy in short, play your hands HARD!!!!!!

Once you make money, dont wait around for everyone to get reads on you and what you might or might not do.

Buy in $60 turn it into $100 get up, Rebuy in at another table and now you have $20 invested and you can really start splashing it up with the LAGS

I just know the bigger my stack gets, the less desire I have to enter any pots,

I DONT RISK IT OR KICK MYSELF IN THE ASS WHEN I DO
Employing what I like to call the "squirrel" strategy will never help you become a long time winner. This is bad advice.
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Old 07-22-2013, 03:54 PM   #5353
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

These threads always give me a chuckle.

One of the main characteristics of 1/2 games are the ridiculously wide calling ranges of ridiculously large opens. Of course short stacking will show a fairly healthy profit. Somebody has a cool thread about it.

Problems are that

1. People who do it suck (like OP)
2. Lack of other games.

OP, you cannot take the risk out of poker without limiting yourself to a tiny winrate. Although they are not the same lots of people really use the work variance to mean downswings. Tiny win rate means lots of downswings. If you shortstack well AK and AQ will be big winners for you. Get lots of money in the pot with an equity edge. Profit.
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Old 07-22-2013, 03:57 PM   #5354
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

If this guy is trying to build a bankroll and get his live game right, he his foolish to buy in for $200 and keep topping off while players with light years more live playy and MORE MONEY (UNLIMITED) can just slowly bleed you

When books say hey if $25 wont fold him try $40 next time, then as much as you called short stacking squirelling, Its called survival with players with unlimited bankrolls (NOT EVEN BANKROLLS JUST UNLIMITED)

If someone is gonna make my game a one hand affair because he has $600 on the table, well that hand happens on my decision.

and If I busted out and rebuy back in for $60 I guess the table stays happy then HMMMM!!! Any player hates players they lose money to

I guess what I dotn get is, if I bust out I can leave the table with clean hands but if I leave the table after doubling up or more, im squirelling, NAH

I want to be a deepstack player, but until I reach that level, I aint playing to lose money

Last edited by BackDownSouth; 07-22-2013 at 04:04 PM.
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Old 07-22-2013, 04:27 PM   #5355
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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Originally Posted by BackDownSouth View Post
If this guy is trying to build a bankroll and get his live game right, he his foolish to buy in for $200 and keep topping off while players with light years more live playy and MORE MONEY (UNLIMITED) can just slowly bleed you

When books say hey if $25 wont fold him try $40 next time, then as much as you called short stacking squirelling, Its called survival with players with unlimited bankrolls (NOT EVEN BANKROLLS JUST UNLIMITED)

If someone is gonna make my game a one hand affair because he has $600 on the table, well that hand happens on my decision.

and If I busted out and rebuy back in for $60 I guess the table stays happy then HMMMM!!! Any player hates players they lose money to

I guess what I dotn get is, if I bust out I can leave the table with clean hands but if I leave the table after doubling up or more, im squirelling, NAH

I want to be a deepstack player, but until I reach that level, I aint playing to lose money
First, I'm not suggesting he tops off if he's learning. Just simply he's better buying in full than short stacked. The problem being short just isn't in how much you can lose, but your inability to win more when you do get a hand. If you think short stacking is a good strategy, you need to work a lot harder at improving your game. It's extremely rare for anyone to be able to build a bankroll employing a short stack strategy.
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Old 07-22-2013, 04:55 PM   #5356
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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F you need to work a lot harder at improving your game.
This is what Im trying to do. The next step for me is to buy for $100 before I would ever consider putting $200 of my money on the table. Aint gonna have some deepstack testing me to see what my betting comfort level is cause I raised a pot with $200 in front.

Honestly Im just now getting used to the fact that $60 is the admission and whatever happens happens and I can play my hands like I should but now you but $135 in front of me, I start not wanting to play a hand.

Its a bad leak but Im newer to live cash play. Im very hard on myself when I leave a table with profit if Im at the table for under an hour cause I feel I should be staying at the table to learn and the money is the cost of education but I live close enough to get this education everyday.

Hey I blew $60 the other day just to find spots to try to run bluffs. Im just not ready to put that much money on the table at once for self preservation.

The work to improve is there (I play live 4x a week), committing finical suicide is not.
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Old 07-22-2013, 05:16 PM   #5357
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Rather than play 4x a week I would recommend skimming old threads/reading a book instead.... then buy in full. In other words, skip shortstacking altogether.

Shortstacking generally sucks for reasons outlined; mostly it limits what you can do at the table. To be profitable ss'ing at all usually requires some sort of lengthy winning internet SNG background where you were adept at "pushbotting"/taking dead money.
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Old 07-22-2013, 05:29 PM   #5358
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I started out short stacking at 120 and have done quite well growing and improving my ability to start deeper. You have to get a really good read on the opponents/table you are playing against. I did a lot of limp calling with pocket pairs/AK/AQ/suited connectors. I agree with the previous post that unless you are going to become a regular player that you shouldn't be worried about balance.

When you get AA-JJ, even 99-TT maybe, then you can go to work depending on where you are in table position. If you decide to open-raise, dont do it unless you are committed to the hand all the way. The key to short stack play is timing and keeping your image in tact. Dont make big moves without the (near) nuts 98% of the time.

Your biggest friend will be the c/r or 3-bet on the Turn. With only one card to come you can price out quite a few opponents by bloating the pot and holding a solid image.

This will only work at a passive table. The more aggressive the table the LESS hands you want to play in as a short stack ... and play them in late possition so you can react/get out if you need to without putting in money you cant chase.

If you open, then open strong ... $16 to $20 ... to try and get HU. If you can use this tight image you should be able to double your stack only playing 1 hand or less per orbit in 2.5 hours or so. There is nothing wrong with picking up $12 or so of dead money when everyone folds to your PF raise from the HJ after 4 limps.

Someone will test you ... and hopefully the Flop goes your way. You are holding premium cards and your opponent will only hit the board less than 30% of the time. Dont be afraid to c-bet even if you dont hiit the board as your holdings are probably still good. GL
Lol. Smh

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Old 07-22-2013, 10:28 PM   #5359
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by timmay28 View Post
Rather than play 4x a week I would recommend skimming old threads/reading a book instead.... then buy in full. In other words, skip shortstacking altogether.

Shortstacking generally sucks for reasons outlined; mostly it limits what you can do at the table. To be profitable ss'ing at all usually requires some sort of lengthy winning internet SNG background where you were adept at "pushbotting"/taking dead money.
But it's fun saying all-in a lot and looking like a boss.
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Old 07-22-2013, 10:50 PM   #5360
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

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Originally Posted by BackDownSouth View Post
This is what Im trying to do. The next step for me is to buy for $100 before I would ever consider putting $200 of my money on the table. Aint gonna have some deepstack testing me to see what my betting comfort level is cause I raised a pot with $200 in front.

Honestly Im just now getting used to the fact that $60 is the admission and whatever happens happens and I can play my hands like I should but now you but $135 in front of me, I start not wanting to play a hand.

Its a bad leak but Im newer to live cash play. Im very hard on myself when I leave a table with profit if Im at the table for under an hour cause I feel I should be staying at the table to learn and the money is the cost of education but I live close enough to get this education everyday.

Hey I blew $60 the other day just to find spots to try to run bluffs. Im just not ready to put that much money on the table at once for self preservation.

The work to improve is there (I play live 4x a week), committing finical suicide is not.
Why do you play? (Serious question.) If you're on 2p2, it implies you're "serious" about the game. If you're trying to play seriously, you're better off playing 1 or 2 times a week for a standard buy-in ($200) than 4x a week for $60 a pop. Play a standard ABC game and avoiding trouble spots should be profitable.

If you're playing solely for entertainment value, by all means keep buying in for $60.
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Old 07-23-2013, 01:55 AM   #5361
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Okay so over the past 211 hours I've went through a small downswing (7 buyins) and ended up with a 1.1bb hourly at 1/3 through this time. Through out this period I've played 36 sessions while winning only 15 of them for a 42% winning session %. 4 of these wins were for under 30 bbs.

I guess what I'm asking is what is the longest breakeven stretch/bad run you've went through? I've used the search bar and read a bunch, but I'm still interested in hearing a few more opinions. If everyone is tired of talking this stuff go ahead and lock it up mods.

Also, what would you guys say is a normal winning session % for a tag? 60-70%?

Last edited by maketimeeveryday; 07-23-2013 at 02:16 AM.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:40 AM   #5362
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

It's not that hard to go on 100 hour losing stretches from time to time. 200 hour losing or break even stretches do happen but they should be very rare. This is assuming u are a winning reg with a big edge. Otherwise u will go thru downswings muh more often.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:41 AM   #5363
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

I have broken even over a period of 2 months one time and have had several other break even months separate from that time. That's about the worst of it for me. And yeah, ~70% wins sounds about right.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:43 AM   #5364
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

I would consider myself a TAG. Sessions are relative....they can be 1 hour or 10 hours. Just to give u an example....my winning sessions is about 60% if u go by 2 hour sessions. My winning days (I average 5.5 hours a day when I do play) is about 70%. This is over a 1k hour sample btw. I think other winning regs will have similar numbers
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:46 AM   #5365
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I have broken even over a period of 2 months one time and have had several other break even months separate from that time. That's about the worst of it for me. And yeah, ~70% wins sounds about right.
Thanks for the reply dude. If you dont mind me asking, were you playing full time? Just trying to get a timeframe for your experience in the matter. Also, how did it effect you mentally?
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:47 AM   #5366
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

What are you hoping to get out of this?
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:50 AM   #5367
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

The whole thing about losing or winning months is kinda ridiculous when u realize a lot of players play like 10 hours a week. Those guys can go on losing or breakeven stretches for months even if they're a top reg cause it takes so long for them to get a good sample size. I recently had my first losing month in April (I play 30-40 hours a week). Yes I ran terribly all month (coolers and bad beats constantly) but I still coulda broken even for the month if I hadn't misplayed several hands due to frustration of running bad for so long. My point is that as long as u put in the hours and have a huge edge and play your a game all the time you will rarely ever lose over a long period of time and things will turn around where u will win big again.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:51 AM   #5368
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It's not that hard to go on 100 hour losing stretches from time to time. 200 hour losing or break even stretches do happen but they should be very rare. This is assuming u are a winning reg with a big edge. Otherwise u will go thru downswings muh more often.
Im assuming I have a mediocre winrate (5.5bb/hr) Ran at 9.5bb/hr for my first 200 hrs, now this run has cut it almost in half. I know the sample size is still pretty dang small, so im probably speaking waaay too early anyway. Might be a losing player for all anyone knows.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:55 AM   #5369
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What are you hoping to get out of this?
I guess just some insight on the type of swings that can occur to a decent reg.
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Old 07-23-2013, 02:59 AM   #5370
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Thanks for the reply dude. If you dont mind me asking, were you playing full time? Just trying to get a timeframe for your experience in the matter. Also, how did it effect you mentally?
Yeah, I was/still do. I feel that it was sort of a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts, since I had been absolutely crushing the game for like a month and a half before then and knew that my run good wouldn't last forever lol. Mentally it was tough. Even after I knew it was going to happen. It taught me a lot about myself. I was in a situation where I wasn't under any pressure to make money, and most of what I was making was being saved. I couldn't figure out why this number effected my emotional state so much. It's so crazy. For example, even if I was making 20bb/hr over a period of time, if I then started making only 10bb/hr It would effect my thoughts and emotions. It really led me to search for myself in a sense. Evaluate what exactly made me happy. I found what I was looking for. Now I know that it isn't any physical object (money, material things, people) that makes me happy, but rather a conscious choice.

All good players go through down swings, but they don't last forever. The worst thing you can do is let your emotions affect your actions. I'm sure things will turn around for you.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:04 AM   #5371
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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Yeah, I was/still do. I feel that it was sort of a self fulfilling prophecy of sorts, since I had been absolutely crushing the game for like a month and a half before then and knew that my run good wouldn't last forever lol. Mentally it was tough. Even after I knew it was going to happen. It taught me a lot about myself. I was in a situation where I wasn't under any pressure to make money, and most of what I was making was being saved. I couldn't figure out why this number effected my emotional state so much. It's so crazy. For example, even if I was making 20bb/hr over a period of time, if I then started making only 10bb/hr It would effect my thoughts and emotions. It really led me to search for myself in a sense. Evaluate what exactly made me happy. I found what I was looking for. Now I know that it isn't any physical object (money, material things, people) that makes me happy, but rather a conscious choice.

All good players go through down swings, but they don't last forever. The worst thing you can do is let your emotions affect your actions. I'm sure things will turn around for you.
I'm glad to hear you got through it and it sounds like it actually helped you as a person. Thank you for taking the time to write this up and for the kind words of encouragement.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:09 AM   #5372
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

If you want to be a pro, you have to embrace losing.

There are 52 weeks in a year, assuming you play an average of 4 days a week, that's more than 200 sessions.

Even if you manage to win 70% of them, you are still going to lose 60 sessions a year.

If you're a 1/3 player, losing average of 300 - 400 per losing session is a pretty decent number. In other words, all those times that you walk out the casino with a losing session, you will leave a total of anywhere between $18,000 to $24,000 at the table in a year.

So ya, and that's someone who's winning 70% of sessions with average win very close to that of average loss.

Learn to embrace losing, or you won't make it.

Just to give you an idea of what to expect. I have already lost more than 32k this year in more than 60 sessions.

Edit: typed too fast.

Last edited by Neutrogena; 07-23-2013 at 03:23 AM.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:12 AM   #5373
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

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If you want to be a pro, you have to embrace losing.

There are 52 weeks in a week, assuming you play an average of 4 days a week, that's more than 200 sessions.

Even if you manage to win 70% of them, you are still going to lose 60 sessions a year.

If you're a 1/3 player, losing average of 300 - 400 per losing session is a pretty decent number. In other words, all those times that you walk out the casino after a losing session, you will leave a total of anywhere between $18,000 to $24,000 at the table in a year.

So ya, and that's someone who's winning 70% of sessions with average win very close to that of average loss.

Learn to embrace losing, or you won't make it.
You're completely right, I just gotta get back on the felt, play well, and realize that losing for an extended period of time is completely in the realm of possibility for a winning player. Thank you for the insight.

Crazy numbers btw, you must play in the big games. Even more thankful for the reply now lol

Last edited by maketimeeveryday; 07-23-2013 at 03:14 AM. Reason: Last line
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:16 AM   #5374
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

Im a 1/2 live player and am currently on the biggest downswing in my allbeit short career. im currently -1600 for the month of july. typically my downswings are between 3-4BI. I am generally a TAG player if this helps.
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Old 07-23-2013, 03:17 AM   #5375
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Re: Breakeven/Downswing Period

I haven't played a ton live yet, so I don't have any input here. But I'd like to post a similar question.

Usually people say to do 10,000 repetitions at anything to see where you're at. How many hands per hour are we assuming? 1 hand every 2 minutes, 30 hands per hour, 10K hands will take about 333 hours and once I hit that I'll have a good benchmark on my hourly going forward?

Sorry to intrude on this post, but was thinking of making a thread for a few days, it's related to this.
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