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Old 07-09-2013, 05:22 PM   #5301
Angrist
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
The fish go to the lake, have cook-outs, go on vacations, etc during the summer.

And the $1/2 (3) games in Vegas during the series were awful at just about every casino I played at, but in particular at the Venetian. You would have to do a lot of table selecting to find a good game. Because even if they aren't grinders, they came to town with a grinder that taught them something about the game.
You know that saying about "if you can't spot the fish in the first 20 minutes ..."?

Last time I was out during the end of the series (during ME) the games were soft everywhere I went. Hell, *every* time I've gone to Vegas the games have been soft.

Thing is, the grinders come out when the fish come out. So even if the traffic is slower at Noon on a Tuesday as opposed to Thurs-Sat night ... there's still a lot of weak players. Older 'recreational' players come out during the day. The 50-60 year old guy in the sandals and polo shirt is there to relax during the day. His type doesn't attract the real tough (semi-) pro type players since he doesn't splash around enough money. You only get the comp-grinders at those hours. So the whole table is weak passive and you can just rob them blind.

The young, drunk, Ivey wannabes don't come out until later at night. Pre and post clubbing, post pool, etc. They're throwing money around and they attract the better of the local pro scene (as far as LLSNL pros go). Those are the really juicy games.


Either way, there's always a game, and it's always weak somehow. The adjustments needed to crush it just vary a bit from hour to hour.


(Damn, why am I not flying to Vegas every other weekend )
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Old 07-09-2013, 05:56 PM   #5302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A clueless noob reaches 1200 hours of live 1/3 NL:

$34,964 over exactly 1200 hours = $29.14/hr

163 sessions = 119 wins (73%) vs 43 losses vs 1 tie

I sorta feel like I'm not playing so good right now, making too many big hand mistakes (which can really destroy a session). Also feel the tables aren't as good sometimes (especially table selection as it often seems there's only one, maybe two tables running); last week I even did something I can't ever recall doing, which was simply racking up and leaving the lone bad table with a couple of possible hours still left in my session. That said, the stats of my last 200 hours say things are going swimmingly ($30.15/hr over the last 198.3 hours), so whatever, I guess.

I will say I don't really have much confidence in my winrate, as I think a fairly recent crazy upswing has really skewed results. I also booked 6 $1000+ wins in 27 sessions within that upswing, but I haven't booked any that large in my last 27 sessions. Having said that, I still haven't gone on any downswing whatsoever in these first 1200 hours at live 1/3 NL, as I've yet to book a 5 BI (i.e. $1500) downswing.

Cliffs:

- doesn't feel I'm playing particularly well
- summer month tables don't quite seem as good
- not particularly confident in my game at the moment
- my stats all suggest otherwise and that everything is a-ok

GcluelessNLnoobG
GG- I honestly think you need to move up. Mostly to keep the feeling that poker is a "fresh challenge"... although IMO you will crush 2/5 just as much.

2/5 ever run in your secret lab?
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Old 07-09-2013, 06:08 PM   #5303
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
You know that saying about "if you can't spot the fish in the first 20 minutes ..."?

Last time I was out during the end of the series (during ME) the games were soft everywhere I went. Hell, *every* time I've gone to Vegas the games have been soft.

Thing is, the grinders come out when the fish come out. So even if the traffic is slower at Noon on a Tuesday as opposed to Thurs-Sat night ... there's still a lot of weak players. Older 'recreational' players come out during the day. The 50-60 year old guy in the sandals and polo shirt is there to relax during the day. His type doesn't attract the real tough (semi-) pro type players since he doesn't splash around enough money. You only get the comp-grinders at those hours. So the whole table is weak passive and you can just rob them blind.

The young, drunk, Ivey wannabes don't come out until later at night. Pre and post clubbing, post pool, etc. They're throwing money around and they attract the better of the local pro scene (as far as LLSNL pros go). Those are the really juicy games.


Either way, there's always a game, and it's always weak somehow. The adjustments needed to crush it just vary a bit from hour to hour.

)
This is really solid information. The games will be changing a little with the end of the WSOP, but still very beatable.
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Old 07-09-2013, 06:20 PM   #5304
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Malucci View Post
This is really solid information. The games will be changing a little with the end of the WSOP, but still very beatable.
Yea, I hear **** about some of the local rooms in Detroit all the time "that casino has no action", "this charity room's too crazy", "this room's too nitty", etc.

It gets really frustrating hearing people that never play in more than one casino talk **** about the action in the other rooms. They're all very beatable, they just sometimes require different adjustments.
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Old 07-09-2013, 06:31 PM   #5305
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
Yea, I hear **** about some of the local rooms in Detroit all the time "that casino has no action", "this charity room's too crazy", "this room's too nitty", etc.

It gets really frustrating hearing people that never play in more than one casino talk **** about the action in the other rooms. They're all very beatable, they just sometimes require different adjustments.
+1. I've found that the easiest crowd at my regular casino is Sunday afternoons. You get a lot of old-timer/rock types that are so easy to exploit with very little variance. Raise the limpers, take down small $10-12 pots 3-5 times per hour, and it's an easy $40/hr game. No rush from scooping a big pot, but profitable. And in my book, profitable>>>entertaining.
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Old 07-10-2013, 12:16 AM   #5306
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. And in my book, profitable>>>entertaining.
Nah ainec. Ill take 30/hr having fun over 40/hr bored any day. And ur crazy cheap/lame/square if you say otherwise.

Edit: people play poker for a living because its better than a real job. Anyone capeable of beating poker for a liveable wage is smart enough to get a job making 100k a year. Its about freedom and fun.

Sent from my SAMSUNG-SGH-I337 using 2+2 Forums

Last edited by drowski; 07-10-2013 at 12:34 AM.
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Old 07-10-2013, 11:43 AM   #5307
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Lol, losing 10% is much less of a mind **** than losing 45%. I don't see how you can't understand this.
tbh, both a breakeven stretch where i lost 10% and a breakeven stretch where i lost 45% would be a bit of a mind**** for me.
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Old 07-10-2013, 12:03 PM   #5308
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

well by definition losing isn't a break even stretch now is it
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Old 07-10-2013, 12:28 PM   #5309
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bip! View Post
GG- I honestly think you need to move up. Mostly to keep the feeling that poker is a "fresh challenge"... although IMO you will crush 2/5 just as much.

2/5 ever run in your secret lab?
I honestly can't recall the last time I've seen the 2/5 game run here. I've heard rumors of it running when I'm not around, but I personally haven't seen it run in, I dunno, many many many months, maybe even upward of a year (because I've been making a note to scout it out for a while now).

I could probably (?) find one elsewhere but that would involve traffic and bridges and traffic and longer driving, meh.

Doesn't really matter though. I do mostly play for fun, and 1/3 NL is fun.

GhappyasaclamwhereIamG
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Old 07-11-2013, 07:15 AM   #5310
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Brag of the day

Yesterday i pulled off my biggest winning session ever. Played for 12 hours in a home game sess, and booked a 1300 BB win or 13 buyins up. It was an incredible feeling when the game broke up and i sat there with my massive stack. And one more positive thing is that this was my session number 8 in a row with a profit in each of em.

I owe a big thanks to 2+2 also for my results lately, my reading,thinking and development as a player has really gotten up in speed the last couple of months.
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Old 07-11-2013, 09:52 AM   #5311
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I honestly can't recall the last time I've seen the 2/5 game run here. I've heard rumors of it running when I'm not around, but I personally haven't seen it run in, I dunno, many many many months, maybe even upward of a year (because I've been making a note to scout it out for a while now).

I could probably (?) find one elsewhere but that would involve traffic and bridges and traffic and longer driving, meh.

Doesn't really matter though. I do mostly play for fun, and 1/3 NL is fun.

GhappyasaclamwhereIamG
Well, very good I mistook the connotation of an earlier post I guess

Driving any more than the shortest distance to a poker game is rarely +EV.
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Old 07-12-2013, 03:34 AM   #5312
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Looking for evaluation of my live stats ($1/2-$5/10 live) please.

I checked the Win rate thread, but no one has posted in it since 2007, if this post belongs somewhere else I apologize. Any insight as to how well my stats are compared to average and any insight would be appreciated.

These statistics range from March 2011 - Present. The main Casinos I played at are Venetian, Wynn, Bellagio, and WSOP cash games. I set my Excel file to 30 hands/hr.

Overall Statistics:
Net Win ($) $20,975
Win Rate ($/hr) $28.95
Hours Played 724
Hands Played 21,734
Net Win (BB) 2,733
Win Rate (BB/hr) 3.8
Win Rate (BB/100) 12.6
St. Dev. (BB per session) 48.8
Max Downswing ($) $3,581
Max Downswing (BB) 484
Average Session Length (hr) 2.8

$1/2 Stats:
Net Win ($) $2,205
Win Rate ($/hr) $16.69
Hours Played 132
Hands Played 3,965
Net Win (BB) 551
Win Rate (BB/hr) 4.2
Win Rate (BB/100) 13.9
St. Dev. (BB per session) 50.6
Max Downswing ($) $524
Max Downswing (BB) 131
Average Session Length (hr) 3.1

$1/3 Stats:
Net Win ($) $6,392
Win Rate ($/hr) $20.47
Hours Played 312
Hands Played 9,368
Net Win (BB) 1,065
Win Rate (BB/hr) 3.4
Win Rate (BB/100) 11.4
St. Dev. (BB per session) 47.6
Max Downswing ($) $1,700
Max Downswing (BB) 283
Average Session Length (hr) 2.8

$2/5 Stats:
Net Win ($) $9,956
Win Rate ($/hr) $37.94
Hours Played 262
Hands Played 7,873
Net Win (BB) 996
Win Rate (BB/hr) 3.8
Win Rate (BB/100) 12.6
St. Dev. (BB per session) 51.4
Max Downswing ($) $2,724
Max Downswing (BB) 272
Average Session Length (hr) 2.7

$5/10 Stats:
Net Win ($) $2,422
Win Rate ($/hr) $137.48
Hours Played 18
Hands Played 529
Net Win (BB) 121
Win Rate (BB/hr) 6.9
Win Rate (BB/100) 22.9
St. Dev. (BB per session) 31.0
Max Downswing ($) $1,304
Max Downswing (BB) 65
Average Session Length (hr) 1.8
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Old 07-12-2013, 06:11 AM   #5313
NCSU07
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Re: Looking for evaluation of my live stats ($1/2-$5/10 live) please.

Play higher
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Old 07-12-2013, 08:02 AM   #5314
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Re: Looking for evaluation of my live stats ($1/2-$5/10 live) please.

I make more money as a district manager at jack in the box
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Old 07-12-2013, 01:41 PM   #5315
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Solid hourly IMO
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Old 07-12-2013, 07:46 PM   #5316
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

How is your overall bankroll? I would assume you're properly rolled for 2/5, given the time spent.

Your 5/10 is skewing your hourly, since it's 10% of your profit but only 2.5% of your table time. You have no meaningful sample there to justify including it in your overall. Be glad you booked a profit. Your other stats look ok, but show room for improvement. You can squeeze out another 1-2bb/hour, but it actually looks pretty solid as is.

Are you rolled for 5/10 already, or did you just sit a couple of juicy games?
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Old 07-12-2013, 08:38 PM   #5317
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Google "confidence intervals". Shows your expected mean of a population using a sample and standard deviation. So like "I am 80% confident I am earning between -1bb and +15bb an hour"

Also fwiw plenty of solid llsnl grinders have 100 hour b/e stretches.

Personally I think llsnl villains have such major leaks that it is obvious a decent w/r can be maintained over time.
100 hour break even stretch? Lol I just about spit out my redbull!

100 hour b/e is so common it shouldn't even be a question, it's only about 3000 hands - anyone that plays full time could tell you that they have experienced even longer b/e stretches. Yes, it is possible to get all in against some donk as a 10:1 favorite, and get sucked out on, over and over - say, 8-10 times in a short number of sessions - If it happens when you are deep, well, there you are with a long b/e stretch.

I'd post my march graph as an example, but it still makes me puke.
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Old 07-12-2013, 08:39 PM   #5318
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Play higher for real!!
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Old 07-14-2013, 10:30 PM   #5319
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Started playing 2/5 NL last Sunday (was always just 1/2 NL).

Anyway, after 3 sessions and about 12 hours, I'm averaging $85/hr. This should be sustainable, right?

: )
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Old 07-15-2013, 08:34 AM   #5320
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Mother Mucker View Post
Started playing 2/5 NL last Sunday (was always just 1/2 NL).

Anyway, after 3 sessions and about 12 hours, I'm averaging $85/hr. This should be sustainable, right?

: )
Top level 2-5 players make $40-50 and hour. So no. That's high level 5-10 live hourly.
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Old 07-15-2013, 09:56 AM   #5321
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Having a hard time posting my graph.
For live 1-2 and 1-3 buying in for $200 I've netted $35,000 over 1,700 hours.
$24 at my main 1-2 game for 650+ hours and $28 for my main 1-3 game 550+ hours.. Worst in random games.
Brings my average down to roughly $20 an hour.
My first hand in that 1,700 hours was my first hand of nlh cash ever. So maybe my winrate is slightly higher now.
Began 2-5 this week. Seems similar.
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Old 07-15-2013, 05:04 PM   #5322
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
Driving any more than the shortest distance to a poker game is rarely +EV.
Depends on where you live...
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Old 07-19-2013, 01:11 PM   #5323
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Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

Hey,

so I play $1/2. Generally buying in for the min which is $100 (50 bbs), if I have extra money outside my bankroll I try and play as deep as I can.

Anyways. This might sound like a mega donk question but I"m wondering whether it's better to check/call (preflop) with AK/AQ and smaller pairs when you have a small bankroll to avoid variance while you're building it.

Like as a preflop rule, should my raising range be down to 99+ or is that just too tight?

Brutal criticism is welcome. Thanks
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Old 07-19-2013, 01:18 PM   #5324
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

I would think that you should play your good hands aggressively just as if you were deep.

AK is always a raising hand PF, especially if you're short. Some advocate just pushing with premium hands when short stacked but that's up to you.

Of course your only move after the flop is going to be a shove if you should hit the board with AK.
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Old 07-19-2013, 01:19 PM   #5325
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Re: Short stack bankroll building question $1/2

I assume you mean limp call... with AK/AQ you should be opening: they are hands that play well heads up and not multiway - can be costly on many boards... 88-22 I mean seems fine at games that people are not folding and you are basically set mining... this works well here because when you dont hit a set it should be a simple fold vs a bet and when you do hit a set you stand to have the best hand extremely often. Tough depending on raise sizing limp/calling pocket pairs to set mine is going to lose you $- if thats the case you should not have any hand at all you limp call... raising or limping to reraise.
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