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Old 07-08-2013, 04:53 PM   #5276
thenextguy
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^ Nice work!

Rough stretch starting around session 50.
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Old 07-08-2013, 05:39 PM   #5277
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Hrs 50-90 must have been hell!

Nice work.
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Old 07-08-2013, 05:50 PM   #5278
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^Those are sessions.
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Old 07-08-2013, 05:51 PM   #5279
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Yea if I'm not mistaken looks like you had a -10k downswing from about 78-93. Care to discuss this. How did it affect you mentally? Playing bad, running bad or a combo? What did you do to clear your head, stay focused and break it? Take a break/ step back to reevaluate your game?

I'm in the midst of some terrible run bad mixed with some play bad, definitely the worst of my short career. Always looking for tips on keeping my head and getting through the situation. I know 1 day I might encounter another one that's worse.
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Old 07-08-2013, 06:01 PM   #5280
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It looks like 52-90 to me which is almost 40 sessions of breakeven/downswing(10k).
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Old 07-08-2013, 06:05 PM   #5281
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Holy crap.
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Old 07-08-2013, 06:08 PM   #5282
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by thenextguy View Post
^^ Nice work!

Rough stretch starting around session 50.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Randal_Graves View Post
Hrs 50-90 must have been hell!

Nice work.
Thanks! Yes they were absolutely brutal. Luckily I've got some experience in downswongs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by serio562 View Post
^Those are sessions.

Something seem off with them?

Quote:
Originally Posted by jsmo0th10 View Post
Yea if I'm not mistaken looks like you had a -10k downswing from about 78-93. Care to discuss this. How did it affect you mentally? Playing bad, running bad or a combo? What did you do to clear your head, stay focused and break it? Take a break/ step back to reevaluate your game?

I'm in the midst of some terrible run bad mixed with some play bad, definitely the worst of my short career. Always looking for tips on keeping my head and getting through the situation. I know 1 day I might encounter another one that's worse.

There is always a devastating run waiting for you around every dark corner. Many of my friends who don't have much of an online background tend to play pretty under rolled and massively underestimate the damage that a bad run of cards can do. (see my 2008 thread)


I did spew a few times and make some bad plays no doubt. I remember one specific hand where there was a 9 way strattle pot and I called out of the big blind with Jh5h. I was $800 deep with a guy and called off my stack after he shipped over my c/r on a J95r flop. It's a spot where I needed to make a tough laydown against this particular player but since I was in the middle of all this bad run I snapped him off. I could probably think of a few other examples.


My swings are somewhat bigger because I play a pretty high variance style for a live player and I try to find the most loose aggressive, deep stacked games. I think in hindsight I should have "nitted it up" a bit and found some lower variance games when I was in such a bad run. At least for a few sessions to get my head on straight.


My advice is that you take 5-7 days off and think nothing of poker during that time. Come back with a fresh attitude and look to play shorter sessions in lower variance games. After a handful of these sessions I think you should feel a LOT better.


Everyone is different though. I've gotten a lot better at handling downswings over the years but it still takes work.
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Old 07-08-2013, 06:13 PM   #5283
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It looks like 52-90 to me which is almost 40 sessions of breakeven/downswing(10k).
It was about 250 hours of breakeven if I remember right.
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Old 07-08-2013, 07:47 PM   #5284
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's hard to imagine that a downswing can like that can happen to a winning player. I can believe it, but having not experience one like it yet it's just crazy. But seeing you recover gives me hope in surviving one if (or when) I hit one.

You just gotta keep plugging along and play your game, I guess.
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Old 07-08-2013, 10:47 PM   #5285
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It's hard to imagine that a downswing can like that can happen to a winning player. I can believe it, but having not experience one like it yet it's just crazy. But seeing you recover gives me hope in surviving one if (or when) I hit one.

You just gotta keep plugging along and play your game, I guess.
Play with a big bankroll and it won't hit you nearly as hard. Seriously. I can't tell you how many players neglect this.
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:28 PM   #5286
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In my last 1,000 hours I had a 400 hour break even stretch at 2/5

Gross
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Old 07-08-2013, 11:59 PM   #5287
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In my last 1,000 hours I had a 400 hour break even stretch at 2/5

Gross
ewe. I've seen many of your strat posts so I know that's prolly variance given the quality of your play. Sample sizes are so ridiculously small in live poker so I sorta just chuckle to myself when I hear other regs around talk about how such runs should never happen to people crushing the game. They are in for a treat at some point in time if they stick around for long enough.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:07 AM   #5288
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
Play with a big bankroll and it won't hit you nearly as hard. Seriously. I can't tell you how many players neglect this.
It seems like it would hit you harder w/ a large bankroll. It just wouldnt hit your bankroll as hard.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:17 AM   #5289
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A clueless noob reaches 1200 hours of live 1/3 NL:

$34,964 over exactly 1200 hours = $29.14/hr

163 sessions = 119 wins (73%) vs 43 losses vs 1 tie

I sorta feel like I'm not playing so good right now, making too many big hand mistakes (which can really destroy a session). Also feel the tables aren't as good sometimes (especially table selection as it often seems there's only one, maybe two tables running); last week I even did something I can't ever recall doing, which was simply racking up and leaving the lone bad table with a couple of possible hours still left in my session. That said, the stats of my last 200 hours say things are going swimmingly ($30.15/hr over the last 198.3 hours), so whatever, I guess.

I will say I don't really have much confidence in my winrate, as I think a fairly recent crazy upswing has really skewed results. I also booked 6 $1000+ wins in 27 sessions within that upswing, but I haven't booked any that large in my last 27 sessions. Having said that, I still haven't gone on any downswing whatsoever in these first 1200 hours at live 1/3 NL, as I've yet to book a 5 BI (i.e. $1500) downswing.

Cliffs:

- doesn't feel I'm playing particularly well
- summer month tables don't quite seem as good
- not particularly confident in my game at the moment
- my stats all suggest otherwise and that everything is a-ok

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:30 AM   #5290
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

GG everyone knows you're just a fish on a heater
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:36 AM   #5291
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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It seems like it would hit you harder w/ a large bankroll. It just wouldnt hit your bankroll as hard.
he means emotionally and having a large cushion makes great falls all the softer.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:45 AM   #5292
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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GG everyone knows you're just a fish on a heater
My guess is that eventually my stats will converge to confirm that.
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Old 07-09-2013, 11:46 AM   #5293
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by sluggger5x View Post
Sample sizes are so ridiculously small in live poker so I sorta just chuckle to myself when I hear other regs around talk about how such runs should never happen to people crushing the game. They are in for a treat at some point in time if they stick around for long enough.
many of them won´t probably play long enough to experience these kind of swings though. tbh, i´m quite jealous if your biggest losing stretch is such a nice little breakeven time
1000 hours, how many hands are that? 30k? 50k?

judging from your holdem graph from 08 you have experience with downswings though, so i guess it didn´t bother you much.
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Old 07-09-2013, 12:12 PM   #5294
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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he means emotionally and having a large cushion makes great falls all the softer.
dont really get the emotional part.

as far as a cushion goes, i suppose it could provide that if youre living out of your bankroll. But if you segregate it, the larger cushion would come from the income you realized before the beginning of the downswing -- which would be more if youre playing a bigger game (and consequently playing a smaller bankroll)
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Old 07-09-2013, 12:15 PM   #5295
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
A clueless noob reaches 1200 hours of live 1/3 NL:

$34,964 over exactly 1200 hours = $29.14/hr

163 sessions = 119 wins (73%) vs 43 losses vs 1 tie

I sorta feel like I'm not playing so good right now, making too many big hand mistakes (which can really destroy a session). Also feel the tables aren't as good sometimes (especially table selection as it often seems there's only one, maybe two tables running); last week I even did something I can't ever recall doing, which was simply racking up and leaving the lone bad table with a couple of possible hours still left in my session. That said, the stats of my last 200 hours say things are going swimmingly ($30.15/hr over the last 198.3 hours), so whatever, I guess.

I will say I don't really have much confidence in my winrate, as I think a fairly recent crazy upswing has really skewed results. I also booked 6 $1000+ wins in 27 sessions within that upswing, but I haven't booked any that large in my last 27 sessions. Having said that, I still haven't gone on any downswing whatsoever in these first 1200 hours at live 1/3 NL, as I've yet to book a 5 BI (i.e. $1500) downswing.

Cliffs:

- doesn't feel I'm playing particularly well
- summer month tables don't quite seem as good
- not particularly confident in my game at the moment
- my stats all suggest otherwise and that everything is a-ok

GcluelessNLnoobG
IMO at least some of your concerns are winrate MUBS.

though, if youre in vegas, i agree that summer tables aren't as good, especially below 5-10.
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Old 07-09-2013, 01:55 PM   #5296
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The fish go to the lake, have cook-outs, go on vacations, etc during the summer.

And the $1/2 (3) games in Vegas during the series were awful at just about every casino I played at, but in particular at the Venetian. You would have to do a lot of table selecting to find a good game. Because even if they aren't grinders, they came to town with a grinder that taught them something about the game.
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:46 PM   #5297
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
The fish go to the lake, have cook-outs, go on vacations, etc during the summer.

And the $1/2 (3) games in Vegas during the series were awful at just about every casino I played at, but in particular at the Venetian. You would have to do a lot of table selecting to find a good game. Because even if they aren't grinders, they came to town with a grinder that taught them something about the game.
What...games at V are super soft.
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Old 07-09-2013, 02:52 PM   #5298
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Last time I was in Vegas during the WSOP, both Caesar's and Mandalay were super soft. Especially Mandalay...I was out there for a Cisco conference, and the tables were so juicy. Conference crowds are ++EV.
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Old 07-09-2013, 04:52 PM   #5299
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
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dont really get the emotional part.

as far as a cushion goes, i suppose it could provide that if youre living out of your bankroll. But if you segregate it, the larger cushion would come from the income you realized before the beginning of the downswing -- which would be more if youre playing a bigger game (and consequently playing a smaller bankroll)
Lol, losing 10% is much less of a mind **** than losing 45%. I don't see how you can't understand this.
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Old 07-09-2013, 04:52 PM   #5300
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Brice View Post
The fish go to the lake, have cook-outs, go on vacations, etc during the summer.

And the $1/2 (3) games in Vegas during the series were awful at just about every casino I played at, but in particular at the Venetian. You would have to do a lot of table selecting to find a good game. Because even if they aren't grinders, they came to town with a grinder that taught them something about the game.
No whey mon
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