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Old 07-05-2013, 03:30 PM   #5251
Avaritia
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
If you're shot taking you shouldn't be blowing 15% of your roll in one shot, IMO. If your roll is 10-12k you shouldn't be shot taking with 1800 of it

Also, Chip, can you log it in Excel on your work computer for free?
Seriously everything in this.

Also I'm not familiar with shot taking theory but I would assume that 2/5 tables described as "juicy" are actually not appropriate for shot taking unless you are totally fine with blowing your entire shot with one hand and going back to the 1/2 grind.
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Old 07-05-2013, 03:41 PM   #5252
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Unless you are a pro then you should definitely be taking shots earlier then that imo

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Old 07-05-2013, 05:00 PM   #5253
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Seriously everything in this.

Also I'm not familiar with shot taking theory but I would assume that 2/5 tables described as "juicy" are actually not appropriate for shot taking unless you are totally fine with blowing your entire shot with one hand and going back to the 1/2 grind.
Here is the theory with shot taking. If you play 1/2 and take a shot at 2/5 in a game that's above average and your winrate is $40 an hr. At the end of an 8 hr session on average you will be up $320. If you take a shot at a juicy game your winrate could be upwards of $100 an hr. Instead of being up $320 you are now up $800. That is much more valuable in moving up permanently.

This was all based upon assumptions, but the idea is you want to be playing in a much fishier game to maximize your winrate when taking a shot.
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Old 07-05-2013, 06:12 PM   #5254
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

There isn't a formula for shot taking, presuming you don't rely on poker for income.

Even the concept of a "bankroll" is kind of vague if you aren't a pro. I built my "bankroll" from basically 0 to a five figure number while in college. I had very low life expenses, so my liferoll equalled my bankroll. I was playing $2/5 and even some 5/T comfortably.

Now I'm out of college looking for a job, trying to pay my own rent, etc.

As my life has changed, so has my "bankroll". My networth is still strong... But you won't find me sitting at any 5/T tables.
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Old 07-05-2013, 07:21 PM   #5255
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lol ok I guess I will be less vague.

I finished "shot taking" for 2/5 a few months ago. I avoided high variance tables because my "shot" variance was a major concern. I specifically chose vanilla tables and steadily increased my bankroll with no downswing, in part to luck and in part to low variance table selection.

Now I intentionally sit with drunk reg Asian 5/10 players, because I can afford the variance. When I was shot taking I (in theory) could not.

I believe either route is viable and in theory yes we want to be sitting at the tables that offer the highest wr over time, but in terms of bankroll building and variance it was more valuable to me to build at a steadier pace with less risk.
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Old 07-05-2013, 07:49 PM   #5256
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I make a full 2/5 buy in at my job every week. I'm going to take a 2 bullet shot at 2/5 for the first time. I have no poker bankroll set aside right now as I can only play on the weekends.
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Old 07-06-2013, 10:58 AM   #5257
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post
Lol ok I guess I will be less vague.

I finished "shot taking" for 2/5 a few months ago. I avoided high variance tables because my "shot" variance was a major concern. I specifically chose vanilla tables and steadily increased my bankroll with no downswing, in part to luck and in part to low variance table selection.

Now I intentionally sit with drunk reg Asian 5/10 players, because I can afford the variance. When I was shot taking I (in theory) could not.

I believe either route is viable and in theory yes we want to be sitting at the tables that offer the highest wr over time, but in terms of bankroll building and variance it was more valuable to me to build at a steadier pace with less risk.
Great post. I need to take this into consideration when I start taking shots at 2/5.
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Old 07-06-2013, 01:54 PM   #5258
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my 2/5 shots have pretty much consisted of taking a 1 bullet (500) attempt at 2/5 when I'm already up ~300 from 1/2, so I feel like I'm pretty much just risking a 1/2 bi and am pretty much free rollin, which definitely helps psychologically. not sure if this is the most efficient way to shot take, def also see the merit of building up a 2 bi shot and just going for it.

also only do this when the br is over 8k. if its under, then I wont even consider sitting at 2/5
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Old 07-06-2013, 04:56 PM   #5259
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I bought poker journal and love it fwiw
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:41 PM   #5260
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With what amount of certainty can a win rate be after only 260 hours of tracking? My SD/hr is a little more than 8 times my win rate according to poker journal. But my SD/session is only about 3.5 times my win rate. I'm fairly certain that this means my playing style that of low variance. Which in turn makes me think that my win rate is more likely sustainable. Furthermore, I'd love comments from players and pros about the fluctuations they've seen in there win rate over hundreds of hours.
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Old 07-07-2013, 12:07 AM   #5261
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Google "confidence intervals". Shows your expected mean of a population using a sample and standard deviation. So like "I am 80% confident I am earning between -1bb and +15bb an hour"

Also fwiw plenty of solid llsnl grinders have 100 hour b/e stretches.

Personally I think llsnl villains have such major leaks that it is obvious a decent w/r can be maintained over time.
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Old 07-07-2013, 10:02 AM   #5262
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I couldn't pass up that great opportunity/seat at the 2/5. That's why I bought in for so much. Going to wait till later on this week when my bankroll is over 10K again to choose another juicy spot. Sucks when you get it in being a 3/1 favorite for a $2000 pot and lose, but I'll take those odds every day when my bankroll is 10K+

11 hours yesterday at 1/2 200 capped for 885 profit. Makes up for the burn from 2/5 last week and the b/e from Tuesday and Friday night. Bankroll is back to 9300.

Is it weird that I average 19bb's an hour playing 1/2 200 CAPPED, and only make 14bb's an hour in 1/2 un-capped and 6bb's an hour 2/5? I mean, 6 bb's an hour for 2/5, no one is really going to complain about that, but 19 bb's an hour on a 1/2 200 capped game is ridiculous. Is anyone else's WR like this and in the same boat as I am in terms of bankroll? I guess it's just because 90%+ of 1/2 200 capped opponents are ridonkulous fish, and 2/5 opponents are more solid, even though every 2/5 game I've played in this year has been like a shootout with 3b's and massive pots and there seems to be soooo much more profit to be made if you play premiums the right way.
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Old 07-07-2013, 12:06 PM   #5263
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Avaritia View Post

Also fwiw plenty of solid llsnl grinders have 100 hour b/e stretches.

Personally I think llsnl villains have such major leaks that it is obvious a decent w/r can be maintained over time.
I know a whole bunch 'o pros here in vegas - and every one whose game I respect that I have had detailed discussions with about w/r etc. has had 100hr break even stretches (these are dudes with top shelf win rates and a decent sample size)

There is a reason y we have bankrolls...and its not just for show. At some point in time we will all run worse than we thought was possible. Lack of bankroll, overestimation of skill level, and inability to handle serious runbad are the reasons that most who set out to do this professionally fail.
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Old 07-07-2013, 01:35 PM   #5264
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Larry Lido View Post
With what amount of certainty can a win rate be after only 260 hours of tracking? My SD/hr is a little more than 8 times my win rate according to poker journal. But my SD/session is only about 3.5 times my win rate. I'm fairly certain that this means my playing style that of low variance. Which in turn makes me think that my win rate is more likely sustainable. Furthermore, I'd love comments from players and pros about the fluctuations they've seen in there win rate over hundreds of hours.
I'm not sure why you think the bolded is significant. Unless youre playing especially long sessions (12 hours plus), the sd/session is higher in relation to the SD/hr than it ought to be.

If the relationship between these two numbers signifies anything, it should lead to the opposite conculsion from the one you draw... but i dont it signifies much of anything.
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Old 07-07-2013, 02:54 PM   #5265
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SD/hr data is averaged from my poker journal app. It is not actual.
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Old 07-07-2013, 03:01 PM   #5266
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Given the sample size of live, SD means very little.
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Old 07-07-2013, 05:33 PM   #5267
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My STD over a 1000 hour sample of 1/2 NL is 213
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Old 07-07-2013, 08:25 PM   #5268
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I'm certain this has been covered before, so my apologies in advance but, how do we calculate alternate winnings into session results? Alternate winnings being jackpots, high hands, bad beat, etc.
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Old 07-07-2013, 08:49 PM   #5269
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Malucci View Post
I'm certain this has been covered before, so my apologies in advance but, how do we calculate alternate winnings into session results? Alternate winnings being jackpots, high hands, bad beat, etc.
I enter them as separate entries, listed as a custom game type "jackpot".
This way when I look at my overall graph they show up in my month by month, year-to-year totals, but when I look to $1/2 NLHE stats it doesn't skew my results.
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Old 07-08-2013, 02:57 AM   #5270
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I enter them as part of the session. You are paying money to the jackpot constantly out of your stack, which subtly appears on your result tracking from session to session. So winnings might as well count too.
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Old 07-08-2013, 01:58 PM   #5271
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would keep records with and w/o the jackpots. They're so infrequent that they could distort how you're running, but you are paying for them so they should count in some way.
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Old 07-08-2013, 02:00 PM   #5272
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Larry Lido View Post
With what amount of certainty can a win rate be after only 260 hours of tracking? My SD/hr is a little more than 8 times my win rate according to poker journal. But my SD/session is only about 3.5 times my win rate. I'm fairly certain that this means my playing style that of low variance. Which in turn makes me think that my win rate is more likely sustainable. Furthermore, I'd love comments from players and pros about the fluctuations they've seen in there win rate over hundreds of hours.
Use this: http://www.castrovalva.com/~la/win.htm
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Old 07-08-2013, 02:59 PM   #5273
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone know of a bankroll / session tracker app, such as poker journal, that works in icloud?
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Old 07-08-2013, 03:01 PM   #5274
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
I enter them as separate entries, listed as a custom game type "jackpot".
This way when I look at my overall graph they show up in my month by month, year-to-year totals, but when I look to $1/2 NLHE stats it doesn't skew my results.
+1
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Old 07-08-2013, 04:49 PM   #5275
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just hit 1,000 hours @ 2/5 so I thought I'd post the results here...


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