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Old 06-25-2013, 05:26 PM   #5201
cbayly12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
15 buyins for $1/$2, $200 buyin.

Winrate is about $12/hr.
What's your standard deviation per hour?

I'd say you need more than 3k to comfortably play 1-2, unless you have another source of income.
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Old 06-25-2013, 05:39 PM   #5202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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What's your standard deviation per hour?

I'd say you need more than 3k to comfortably play 1-2, unless you have another source of income.
Yeah, I work full-time. Make enough to slightly replenish the roll once in a while. Been playing live for 3 years and have gone up and down.

Stand. dev is $415/hr
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Old 06-25-2013, 05:58 PM   #5203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The biggest stack that I ever had in a capped game was 16.5k in a 5/10 NL 1500 cap game. 1650bbs deep. But I was actually in the game for 5k.

Of course, I have had bigger stacks in uncapped games, but that's not really very impressive.
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Old 06-25-2013, 06:00 PM   #5204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by ATsai View Post
The biggest stack that I ever had in a capped game was 16.5k in a 5/10 NL 1500 cap game. 1650bbs deep. But I was actually in the game for 5k.

Of course, I have had bigger stacks in uncapped games, but that's not really very impressive.
Good lord.
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Old 06-25-2013, 06:24 PM   #5205
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

a couple of casinos near where we are moving to have different structure than the typical.

casino A: buyin 40-200. blinds 2/2 with a 1 on the btn. $5 drop (no rake)

casino B: buyin 50-300. blinds 2/3 with a 1 on the btn. $5 drop (no rake)

wondering how you think these structures would affect the profitability of the games.

thanks,
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Old 06-25-2013, 06:28 PM   #5206
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With rake being equal, you should choose casino B. Higher buyin cap = Larger average stacks = larger pots = lower percentage of profits paid to the drop
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Old 06-25-2013, 06:31 PM   #5207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Game B is much more profitable given the same rake and more dead money in the pot pf.
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:06 PM   #5208
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY View Post
Game B is much more profitable given the same rake and more dead money in the pot pf.
bolded is pretty absurd.

Structure is going to have an effect on the profitability of these games, but it is going to be pretty nominal.

If game quality is a dead heat, choose B. Otherwise, go where the quality is the best..

Noth though that both of these games have a very low BI relative to the blinds. 100BB is the low end of normal to begin with, but the atypically large SB in both games exacerbates it.
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:11 PM   #5209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

It's not absurd at all. Have you ever compared winrates in a 1/2 200 cap vs 1/3 300 cap?
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:19 PM   #5210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
do you think this is reasonable:

i have a bankroll of X

as long as the bankroll is at X+ i am going to take 25 percent of each winning session and use it for life. (hookers and blow)

if bankroll dips below X, i take 0 percent for life until i get roll back to X.

also, anyone have a link to Risk of ruin? i can't seem to find one that helps me.
u just need the forumla?

2.718281828^(-2xy/z2)

x=winrate y=bankroll z=SD

u can use any unit you want but they all have to be in the same unit and WR and SD hjave to be in the same period

personally, i don't like your idea. I think a system where you start with bankroll X, then take like 5 percent out every time you grow by 20 percent is better. At the very least, i would say take 25% of your weekly profits out, if they exist. doing it session by session seems a bit de trop.

Assuming 8 hour sessions and 40 hour weeks, youre talking about a SD thats like 13x your WR per session but only 5x your winrate per week.

Last edited by Turyia; 06-25-2013 at 07:30 PM.
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Old 06-25-2013, 07:30 PM   #5211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
u just need the forumla?

2.718281828^(-2xy/z2)

x=winrate y=bankroll z=SD

u can use any unit you want but they all have to be in the same unit and WR and SD hjave to be in the same period

personally, i don't like your idea. I think a system where you start with bankroll X, then take like 5 percent out every time you grow by 20 percent is better. At the very least, i would say take 25% of your weekly profits out, if they exist. doing it session by session seems a bit de trop
thanks. i might try to grow the bankroll more first.
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Old 06-26-2013, 05:02 PM   #5212
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Turyia View Post
u just need the forumla?

2.718281828^(-2xy/z2)

x=winrate y=bankroll z=SD

u can use any unit you want but they all have to be in the same unit and WR and SD hjave to be in the same period

personally, i don't like your idea. I think a system where you start with bankroll X, then take like 5 percent out every time you grow by 20 percent is better. At the very least, i would say take 25% of your weekly profits out, if they exist. doing it session by session seems a bit de trop.

Assuming 8 hour sessions and 40 hour weeks, youre talking about a SD thats like 13x your WR per session but only 5x your winrate per week.
$15/hr winrate, 3k bankroll, 420 SD. Your chance of going broke is 60%? Am I misunderstanding something or is this way too high?
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Old 06-26-2013, 05:04 PM   #5213
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

B should be a much better game.

$5 drop (vs 10% rake up to $5) is tough though.
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Old 06-26-2013, 07:11 PM   #5214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
Yeah, I work full-time. Make enough to slightly replenish the roll once in a while. Been playing live for 3 years and have gone up and down.

Stand. dev is $415/hr
Wow. Playing 1/2? That seems like an insane SD.
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Old 06-26-2013, 07:53 PM   #5215
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by BlaneH View Post
Wow. Playing 1/2? That seems like an insane SD.
I use SessionLogger. I have a feeling it calculates things incorrectly. Not sure. Other people have mentioned the same thing.

I do play shorter sessions (3-4 hours) when I get up big.
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:29 PM   #5216
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nope. I use session logger and it has be at a reasonable 100/hr SD. I some times play short sessions when I lose due to stop loss but I also continuously up date my stack size through the session. Try doing that and it may lead to you having a more accurate account. It's pretty close to the one I have on check your bets.
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:32 PM   #5217
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

This Aaron Hernandez thing is crazy. Did he really think he could get away with it?
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:37 PM   #5218
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly View Post
I use SessionLogger. I have a feeling it calculates things incorrectly. Not sure. Other people have mentioned the same thing.

I do play shorter sessions (3-4 hours) when I get up big.
it does if you dont update your stack size every hour. But it tends to underestimate SD, not overestimate it.

i havent tested, but it might have a tendency to overestimate SD if you play multiple stakes.
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:43 PM   #5219
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

getting a new phone tomorrow and can't transfer existing stuff over AFAIK, so i'll probably start with a new program if i start tracking again on my phone. i stopped around may 31.
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Old 06-26-2013, 08:45 PM   #5220
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by WinEvryRacex View Post
$15/hr winrate, 3k bankroll, 420 SD. Your chance of going broke is 60%? Am I misunderstanding something or is this way too high?
yes. youre missing this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by BlaneH View Post
Wow. Playing 1/2? That seems like an insane SD.
200/hr is a pretty typical SD... for which a 3K br would yield a 10% RoR.

remember... doubling SD quadruples variance.
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Old 06-27-2013, 12:54 AM   #5221
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I have two things to add....

1.) in poker journal app for iPhone, to calculate bankroll requirements I was trying to use this app to figure out standard deviation, do I use standard deviation hourly, or for the whole session.

And 2.) I have promptly run my 5k BR that I saved up over months of humping this crappy job into the ground in a matter of weeks and only have 2500 left and am moving down to 1-2 to try to recover and rebuild. I don't necessarily think any of you care about this, but I just complain and whine somewhere to someone, so you have drawn the short stick.
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Old 06-27-2013, 02:51 AM   #5222
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by Walter1 View Post
I have two things to add....

1.) in poker journal app for iPhone, to calculate bankroll requirements I was trying to use this app to figure out standard deviation, do I use standard deviation hourly, or for the whole session.
either will work as long as your winrate is expressed in the same period as your standard deviation.... so if you use your standard dev per session you also need to use your average winrate per session
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Old 06-28-2013, 11:03 PM   #5223
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This is the RoR calculator I use:

http://www.reviewpokerrooms.com/poke...uirements.html

And yes it is true that either numbers (hourly SD or session SD) will yield a result, those numbers are slightly different for me. Poker Journal weights all sessions the same whether they are 1 hour or 12 hours, so I believe that using hourly results are more accurate. But I'm not trained in the mathz. Personally I am happy using hourly SD with a 1% RoR, which results in a lot of work to realize can just use the 20 BIs rule and have almost the exact same number.
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Old 06-30-2013, 12:36 PM   #5224
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

In the first 100 hours of playing full-time live NL poker again, I am winning 22k already.

Too bad that I am going back into semi-retirement (20 hours/week) in a couple months. Would be nice to have a 100k run before I final my hours back down in mid-September.
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Old 06-30-2013, 01:03 PM   #5225
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Stakes? Location? Max buy-in?
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