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Old 02-03-2011, 07:54 PM   #476
Princess Azula
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AEPpoker View Post
just wondering where you got the number.
Ehhh, it's an estimation commonly thrown out there.
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Old 02-03-2011, 08:29 PM   #477
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It means play as if you can't buyin anymore.
Lol well I suggest you state.this and not say play like in a tournament...that's wrong for many reasons...along with saying this is actually how people play in tournaments..
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Old 02-03-2011, 08:58 PM   #478
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Lol well I suggest you state.this and not say play like in a tournament...that's wrong for many reasons...along with saying this is actually how people play in tournaments..
I did state that, and besides I'm not talking bout some icm push fest. I'm talking bout day 1 of the main event strategy. But yeah your take on poker is not as serious as mine. So I would expect you to talk about some online push fest.

Typical internet dude.
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Old 02-03-2011, 09:06 PM   #479
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^ lol

Easy grasshopper in any way or form in my comments did I say anything about push fest???? Btw now that you've somewhat.narrowed down what you are referring to we are getting somewhere...there are many types of tournanets structures payouts fields rebuys turbos bountys shootouts freezeouts etc that influence tournament play...that's why I say you can not.give a general standpoint on your proclamation. I suspect we are detouring from the subject at hand...

And I'm glad your taking poker seriously you get a star for the day sweetheart.

I should.probably block you like the rest of the forum.
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Old 02-03-2011, 09:09 PM   #480
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.
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Old 02-03-2011, 09:43 PM   #481
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.
losing 5 buyins weekly or total what do you mean by this? a bad run can eat 5 buyins fast,no?
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:10 PM   #482
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Its insanley hard to go through 5 buyins unless you tilt.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:22 PM   #483
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Its insanley hard to go through 5 buyins unless you tilt.
if you are playing 2/5 how much do you bring per session @ casino 1000$ or more?
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:28 PM   #484
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I bring about 6k with me..for one I.stay a few days And two if the 5/10 games are good ill jump in.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:32 PM   #485
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

at 2-5 it depends on how much you buyin for, obviously the more you buyin for the chances are less that you will lose that buyin, where im from the max is $1500. For 1-2 its usually $200.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:37 PM   #486
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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rule of thumb... sounds more like a rule or wrist. 1/2 what you quote is sufficient.

If youre talking a segregated bankroll, this is beyond absurd.

if you go down 10K playing 2/5 you either suck at game selection or you suck at poker. it isnt a bankroll issue.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bubonicplay
Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.

None of these three simulated winner players would agree with you.



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Old 02-03-2011, 10:51 PM   #487
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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None of these three simulated winner players would agree with you.



they agree with me.. For any of these three players, a 5Bi starting roll would be sufficient, provided it was segregated. also, i think your bb/100 is way low. so at 1/2 youre simulating a $3/hr-$5/hr expectation winner.
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Old 02-03-2011, 10:56 PM   #488
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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they agree with me.. also, i think your bb/100 is way low. so at 1/2 youre simulating a $3/hr-$5/hr expectation winner.

Mr. Red goes through a 25 buy-in downswing, but still meets his winning expectation.

Anyway, here is another simulation with 10bb/100...




Anyone who is interested can verify all of this at: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

I'm not gonna derail this anymore.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:01 PM   #489
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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Originally Posted by Princess Azula View Post
Mr. Red goes through a 25 buy-in downswing, but still meets his winning expectation.

Anyway, here is another simulation with 10bb/100...





All four expect Green hit a -10 buy-in downswing.

Anyone who is interested can verify all of this a: http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tool...nce_simulator/

I'm not gonna derail this anymore.
there is a difference between having a 25 BI downswing and passing through -25BI.

Id honestly like to see how many trials you would have to do to get a sample that passed through -10 BI (and thus would bust a 10BI bankroll)

also, i dont see how this is a derail -- if this isnt on the topic of the thread i dont see what is.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:11 PM   #490
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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Originally Posted by AEPpoker View Post
there is a difference between having a 25 BI downswing and passing through -25BI.

Id honestly like to see how many trials you would have to do to get a sample that passed through -10 BI (and thus would bust a 10BI bankroll)

also, i dont see how this is a derail -- if this isnt on the topic of the thread i dont see what is.
Okay, here is a trial of 50 players each with a 10bb win-rate. Of the 50 players only one would have busted a 10-buy-in starting roll. Actually that player would have come close to busting a 15 buy-in starting roll.

A few players came very close to busting a 5-buy-in starting roll. It looks like 6 players, or about 12%.

So if 50 players started with the roll you selected (10 buy-ins), and all of them were winning players, all of them except about 1 would never go bust.

At 2% chance of failure.

To the other poster who suggested 5-buy-ins, about 12% of winning players will go bust with that.


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Old 02-03-2011, 11:14 PM   #491
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

As an example, i plotted 1000 graphs at 10bb/100 and 80/100 sd

i got this



the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.

Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:16 PM   #492
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Re: live bankroll requirement for 1/2 and 2/5 live?

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Originally Posted by Princess Azula View Post
Okay, here is a trial of 50 players each with a 10bb win-rate. Of the 50 players only one would have busted a 10-buy-in starting roll. Actually that player would have come close to busting a 15 buy-in starting roll.
it looks like we had the same idea at the same time.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:20 PM   #493
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by AEPpoker View Post
As an example, i plotted 1000 graphs at 10bb/100 and 80/100 sd

i got this



only two out of the thousand (mr red and mr teal) come even close to passing through the two absolute worst runs pass through about -2Kbbs or about 20 100bb BIs. That is to say, .2 percent of the sample.

Including those, it looks like about 5 or 6 reach -1000 BBs, or about half a percent.
It does look like between 2 and 4 or, about ~0.3% will bust a 20-buy-in starting roll.

The graph is way to compressed to view the number of 10-buy-in bustos. I'd still estimate it to be about 2%.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:25 PM   #494
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Nice graphs and everything but theres not a lot of variance with live play... Especially if you nut peddle and rareley bluff (only in +++EV spots). I aggree with myself but i would like to hear what seasoned pros say.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:36 PM   #495
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Nice graphs and everything but theres not a lot of variance with live play... Especially if you nut peddle and rareley bluff (only in +++EV spots). I aggree with myself but i would like to hear what seasoned pros say.
personally, i think the numbers in the graphs way underestimate winrate (you have to think, 10bbs/100 at 1-2 is like what 7 bucks an hour) and overestimate variance (because the SD/100 is typical of online games)

as an example, look what happens when we put the winrate at 15bb/100


that said, even if we use those numbers and the idea that 2% will bust a 10bi roll, I think the statement

"You need a 10BI roll or more to play" is very different from the statement "If you have less than a 10BI roll, there is a 2% chance you will bust it even if you have a positive expectation"

Last edited by AEPpoker; 02-03-2011 at 11:41 PM.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:55 PM   #496
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by bubonicplay View Post
Anyone losing more than 5 buyins at 2-5 or 1-2 should quit, the edges are so high that even if you are constantly running bad you should still be making profit.
lol

You haven't run bad yet.
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Old 02-03-2011, 11:56 PM   #497
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

yes i have actually, ive never lost more than 3 buys in a row... and the third was actually a tilt loss.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:00 AM   #498
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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yes i have actually, ive never lost more than 3 buys in a row... and the third was actually a tilt loss.
The odds playing of 1,000,000 hands and doing both of the following:
  1. being a 10bb/100 winner, and
  2. not going on a 3.5 buy-in downswing.
must be astronomical.


How many hands do you think you have played over this time?
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:01 AM   #499
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've burnt through 10 in a night, live. I survived a 120bi downswing live and online combined.

Now its not like I'm good or anything, and that's definitely atypical, but with all due respect if your largest downswing is 3bi, no, you have not run bad yet.
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Old 02-04-2011, 12:03 AM   #500
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Of course im talking about if you play near perfect poker... Of course if you have leaks then i can see more than 5 buyins.
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