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Old 03-21-2013, 08:25 PM   #4576
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

That's true, and perhaps that offsets the times villain folds on the turn.
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Old 03-21-2013, 08:33 PM   #4577
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you'll never have a chance to stack anyone if you don't bet turn.
yeah, I understand the POV and in game and afterwards, I thought about it. I'm not 100% I'm right at all but also don't think my play was 100% wrong.

Villain was an above average player at that level, I've played with him on 5/5 too and he isn't a spew monkey by any standards.

My thought basically was that given we were heads up, he will think I'm c betting 100% of my range, so by checking turn I think I get more value on river, either by him leading into me or as it turned out, my river bet range having more bluffs in it and him hero calling me.

We were pretty deep and I would have hated being check raised all in on turn - when he limp called, I think he has more pocket pairs than queens in his range so I was a little wary of a set.

For that reason, if he leads into me on river my plan was only to call vs a re-raise.
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Old 03-21-2013, 09:12 PM   #4578
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turn needs to bet there so you can win 120bb with tptk.
+1
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Old 03-21-2013, 09:22 PM   #4579
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Hey Mes, by optimal I thought that meant the statistically fastest way to grow your bankroll while minimizing risk of ruin. By definition how could you be better than optimal?
a late response, but what Kelly is designed to maximize is expected utility, given a logarithmic utility of money function. That is sometimes expressed as maximizing the "expected growth rate" which is a bit unintuitive.

Here's how to envision what logarithmic utility of money means.

Linear money is how we normally think about poker decisions. You are getting 2:1 money odds and we have 40% equity, therefore, good decision. And we moderate our risk by making sure we only ever put a fairly small fraction of our bankroll on the table.

Linear money utility decisions are how you would maximize your bankroll, period. But a consequence of linear utility is that you would be indifferent to flipping a coin for your entire bankroll with no overlay, and want to flip for your entire bankroll with any overlay whatsoever. So for example. Your entire net worth is 100k. I offer to flip a coin. You can be assured that the coin is absolutely and perfectly fair. If you win, I give you $100,001, if I win, you give me $100,000.

Linear utility says this is a good bet, you earn $1 on average.

Linear utility is obviously way, way, way out there into degen land on the gambool scale.

Logarithmic utility says that you are indifferent to bets where winning will in crease your bankroll by a factor of x, and losing will leave you with bankroll * 1/x. So you have a 100k bankroll, and I offer a flip for your whole bankroll where if you win, you get 100k, and if you lose, you pay me 50k. So you double your roll on a win, and halve it on a loss.

Or alternately, you win $10k, or lose $9091. You should be indifferent. Or alternately, you win $900k, or lose $90k. You should be indifferent.

If this sounds too gambooly for you, then kelly is too aggressive. If it sounds pretty close to accurate, then you are a fairly typical aggressive advantage gambler, which is why Kelly is popular.

When I say Kelly specifies the optimal amount to bet, what I mean is that betting the kelly% maximizes the expected logarithm of your total bankroll.

Betting more than this amount will increase your linear EV, but slightly decrease your log EV versus betting the kelly amount. But betting a bit more than the kelly amount is better than not betting at all.

That's why I mean it can be advantageous to flip for more than kelly would suggest -- if you don't have the optino to bet the kelly amount, but you can bet something like 1.5x the kelly amount, then it's probably still a good bet.

utility adjusted EV is my own formulation that I use to determine whether a bet is good/bad. It's worth playing with the formula I gave in the last post, until you understand what's going on.
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Old 03-22-2013, 02:01 AM   #4580
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Guys! I did it!

So I'm in for 150ish at 1/2. I pick up AsQd in mid position, make it 8, get three callers. Flop Qc8s2s. Pot 35. Checks around to me, I bet 17 (an error, I know). One fold, V1 who had limped (no previous experience and I just sat down) says: "Let's just see where you're at" and makes it 30 more. I'm thinking, this is just like the last time, where I ran AQ into bottom set. Only this isn't a rainbow board, and this guy only has 60 behind. I still think for quite a while about it, it takes a while for the math and Ed Miller's SPR advice (3-5 is ideal for tptk, and SPR of this guy's stack was 3 on the flop) to battle with my MUBSy fear of running into a set again. He has gone on to talk to people, but he doesn't give a speech. I shove all in, he instacalls, I say ****. turn 7, river K, he says "good play, you got it". I say "you missed the flush?" He had 5s6s. turn actually gave him oesd as well as the flush draw. I flip my AQ, he says "gutsy play".

Few hands later, I have 4c5c in the cutoff with a dead button (so basically on the button), and I overlimp after a few limpers. BB makes it 7, one caller, I call because I have position and am thinking about trying out a bluff if the situation is right (I don't put him on a really strong hand). Pot 22. Flop comes 8dTcJc, I'm deciding whether to semibluff when BB makes it 10. other guy folds, I decide to just call. Turn Kc. He bets 10 again, and I've seen him bet overly small on a draw or when he has a weak hand. I don't want to let him get a free club so I make it 40. He calls, river 9h, he goes all in for 43 more, and my MUBS saying he has a higher flush isn't even all that loud, it's just kind of in the background, saying, "well, he COULD..." I call, he flips over a queen, had JQ. I guess he put me on the king on the turn and was drawing to hit the straight or trips.

Anyway, woot! I'm fighting my nitty MUBS with the power of math and position. (Any and all criticisms welcome, I know I should've raised more with my flush, in retrospect)

[edit] In before

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs

Last edited by corlath; 03-22-2013 at 02:08 AM.
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Old 03-22-2013, 08:58 AM   #4581
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Hi all, cross-posting this from my PG&C thread because it seems like here's where I'm most likely to find people who know what they're talking about. Would be good to know if people could put a rough ballpark on my % chance of busting with a 5BI shot.

As background, I've been grinding a roll through the micros, started at 2NL with a $60 bankroll, and currently at 25NL with a bankroll of ~$850. My ultimate aim is to build a roll to play live games in London. I have a full-time job, and my poker roll and my life roll are totally disconnected.

---

I've been rethinking my BRM again, and I'm beginning to concoct a new plan. When I get to $1250, instead of moving up to NL50, I'm going to withdraw £500 ($750), and stay at NL25 with my $500 bankroll remaining.

Why? Well, I really want to start taking a shot at the 1/1 live games in London. Building up a live roll was my driving force behind starting playing online, ever since I turned €200 into €950 at the Gran Casino in Barcelona (the night I truly caught the poker bug). While i know 5BIs is a risky shot to take, I figure that I'm probably 20-25% at worst to busto (basing this partly on the fact that in this outstanding thread, gobbledygeek's only had two -450bb downswings over 1000 hours of live 1/3).

My wife's got an away job again at the end of May, I'd love to have the shot ready to fire by then so I could have a full week of live play while she's away. I could see $1250 being achievable in the next couple of months, if things go well.

Does this sound like madness? I mean, sure, I'll have to hope variance treats me kindly, but if it doesn't work then I've still got my $500 online, and I don't think it'd take me TOO much longer to turn that $500 into $1250 at 25NL to take another 5BI shot than it would to turn the $1250 into $2000 playing 50NL.

My only worry is my mental game - with a 5BI bankroll a standard 2BI blip represents 40% of my bankroll, and not playing scared money with the remainder might be a challenge. But then I think my mental game is pretty strong, and given that it's not my full bankroll, just a shot, I should be OK.
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Old 03-22-2013, 09:04 AM   #4582
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Originally Posted by spikeraw22 View Post
Worthless. F Ohio.





Spoiler:
Don't worry, I'd hate Ohio too.

http://espn.go.com/ncb/recap?gameId=320760130

Sorry, had to bring it up!

Last edited by ohsnapzbrah; 03-22-2013 at 09:05 AM. Reason: Eh
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:40 AM   #4583
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I'm still laughing that OSU has a class teaching people how to use excel. At michigan they just assume you aren't ******ed and make you use a freaking spreadsheet.
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:45 AM   #4584
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I'm still laughing that OSU has a class teaching people how to use excel. At michigan they just assume you aren't ******ed and make you use a freaking spreadsheet.
Without looking it up - will bet $10 that Michigan has a class that teaches excel.... bet on?

(all the time I get confused that this is the chat thread and post in here!... in before "you must be from Ohio State")
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:50 AM   #4585
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by corlath View Post
Guys! I did it!

So I'm in for 150ish at 1/2. I pick up AsQd in mid position, make it 8, get three callers. Flop Qc8s2s. Pot 35. Checks around to me, I bet 17 (an error, I know). One fold, V1 who had limped (no previous experience and I just sat down) says: "Let's just see where you're at" and makes it 30 more. I'm thinking, this is just like the last time, where I ran AQ into bottom set. Only this isn't a rainbow board, and this guy only has 60 behind. I still think for quite a while about it, it takes a while for the math and Ed Miller's SPR advice (3-5 is ideal for tptk, and SPR of this guy's stack was 3 on the flop) to battle with my MUBSy fear of running into a set again. He has gone on to talk to people, but he doesn't give a speech. I shove all in, he instacalls, I say ****. turn 7, river K, he says "good play, you got it". I say "you missed the flush?" He had 5s6s. turn actually gave him oesd as well as the flush draw. I flip my AQ, he says "gutsy play".

Few hands later, I have 4c5c in the cutoff with a dead button (so basically on the button), and I overlimp after a few limpers. BB makes it 7, one caller, I call because I have position and am thinking about trying out a bluff if the situation is right (I don't put him on a really strong hand). Pot 22. Flop comes 8dTcJc, I'm deciding whether to semibluff when BB makes it 10. other guy folds, I decide to just call. Turn Kc. He bets 10 again, and I've seen him bet overly small on a draw or when he has a weak hand. I don't want to let him get a free club so I make it 40. He calls, river 9h, he goes all in for 43 more, and my MUBS saying he has a higher flush isn't even all that loud, it's just kind of in the background, saying, "well, he COULD..." I call, he flips over a queen, had JQ. I guess he put me on the king on the turn and was drawing to hit the straight or trips.

Anyway, woot! I'm fighting my nitty MUBS with the power of math and position. (Any and all criticisms welcome, I know I should've raised more with my flush, in retrospect)

[edit] In before

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N0nyOyrprIs
a minraise OTF is like always a BS hand
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:50 AM   #4586
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I'm sure it does. Not one focused on engineers or accountants though
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:56 AM   #4587
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Everyone knows how to use excel, but few people really know how to use it well, in my findings. I feel like every month I show someone at work something in excel and their head explodes. Whoa, slow down professor, what did F4 just do?

I think every single college should have a mandatory excel class or two. It's probably one of the best tools for getting a good job out of school ime. Well, I should add, being able to solve problems in excel is what's really important.
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:58 AM   #4588
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The basic stuff was like week 1 and 2. The stuff past week one and two I'm sure one will never have to use. And Microsoft Access (whatever the orange one is called)....sigh.
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Old 03-22-2013, 11:01 AM   #4589
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Everyone knows how to use excel, but few people really know how to use it well, in my findings. I feel like every month I show someone at work something in excel and their head explodes. Whoa, slow down professor, what did F4 just do?

I think every single college should have a mandatory excel class or two. It's probably one of the best tools for getting a good job out of school ime. Well, I should add, being able to solve problems in excel is what's really important.
Is there anything that you can't google and learn for an average person?

If your job prospect hinges on your ability to use Excel, there's something majorly wrong.

Plus in this instance, we're talking about a few very simple formulas.
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Old 03-22-2013, 11:20 AM   #4590
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re my win rate, it seems to me that it is higher than people I would think from these forums are way better than me. I don't have delusions of grandeur, although I hope I get good value from my hands most of the time. More so, I think the reason for this could be that the games in Australia play bigger pre flop in terms of limpers and bet sizing and this increases win rate.

eg yesterday at 3/3, the standard raise was $15-18, so 5-6bb and I'm certain this increases my win rate.

I had a standard hand yesterday. 3 limpers to me in c/o with AQ. I raise to 24, two callers.
Flop $81 Qh 8d 4s.

Checked to me, I bet $50, one caller. (eff stacks 400)

Turn $181. 9c he checks, I check.

River ($181) 7d, he checks I bet $120, he tank calls with 1010.

Scoop pot of $421. Quite a standard played pot I'd think but, I won 74bb with TPTK. If standard raise had been 4 or 5 bb, I'd have only won 45-50.
Looks like our game plays similar (with regards to open raise sizes, as I never open for less than $15 in my 1/3 game and after limpers(s) it's easily $20+, although my raise size is typically larger than most at my table cuz I don't like going eleventeen ways to a flop with a TP hand), and yet your winrate is like 2x mine; nice.

FWIW, unlike others, I play the hand the exact same way as you. We're only likely to get 3 streets of value from a few Qx hands that we're ahead of (also having to hope that stronger hands like KQ, QJs, etc. limped preflop). Otherwise, the check back on the turn gets us river value from weak second pair type hands (of which there are a million more combos than Qx hands), plus enables bluffy players to float the flop to bluff the river, plus saves us money in the times we are crushed. Plus the board ain't even that drawy (and note one of the few draws did actually come in on the turn). Nice hand, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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Old 03-22-2013, 12:44 PM   #4591
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I bet they paid the students coming in who were really good at excel on top of excel scholarships. Did your prof have a sweater vest?
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:54 PM   #4592
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I'm sure it does. Not one focused on engineers or accountants though
Many business schools make you take a tech class that includes an Excel overview.
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Old 03-22-2013, 03:57 PM   #4593
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Everyone knows how to use excel, but few people really know how to use it well, in my findings. I feel like every month I show someone at work something in excel and their head explodes. Whoa, slow down professor, what did F4 just do?

I think every single college should have a mandatory excel class or two. It's probably one of the best tools for getting a good job out of school ime. Well, I should add, being able to solve problems in excel is what's really important.
wtf does F4 do?

fwiw in freshman level courses an excel intro or like "beginners guide" should be in the syllabus for people to catch up on. In my Intro to Engineering class I believe we went over Excel and other computer programming languages.

Basically a class just focused on excel is dumb, it should include computer programming and that should happen in HIGH SCHOOL, not in college
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Old 03-22-2013, 05:34 PM   #4594
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LOL@ all the excel talk
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Old 03-22-2013, 10:12 PM   #4595
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Looks like our game plays similar (with regards to open raise sizes, as I never open for less than $15 in my 1/3 game and after limpers(s) it's easily $20+, although my raise size is typically larger than most at my table cuz I don't like going eleventeen ways to a flop with a TP hand), and yet your winrate is like 2x mine; nice.

FWIW, unlike others, I play the hand the exact same way as you. We're only likely to get 3 streets of value from a few Qx hands that we're ahead of (also having to hope that stronger hands like KQ, QJs, etc. limped preflop). Otherwise, the check back on the turn gets us river value from weak second pair type hands (of which there are a million more combos than Qx hands), plus enables bluffy players to float the flop to bluff the river, plus saves us money in the times we are crushed. Plus the board ain't even that drawy (and note one of the few draws did actually come in on the turn). Nice hand, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
ty and yes, when I read your 1k post, I noticed about a million similarities between your game and mine.

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Old 03-22-2013, 10:21 PM   #4596
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11t you are so correct. You learn, excel, word and powerpoint in hs. Should be common knowledge for all college students to know excel.
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Old 03-22-2013, 11:25 PM   #4597
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If you use a mouse when you work in excel then you need to take a class because you suck at excel.
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Old 03-23-2013, 01:58 AM   #4598
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as an engineer I have no idea how people don't know how to use excel
If you have a slide rule, you don't need it.
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Old 03-23-2013, 03:39 AM   #4599
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Two hands today I ran it twice: AQ vs JT all in preflop, and AK vs 89 all in on 973K two-spade board.

Both "run it twice"s were determined before the hands were exposed, and both times, the second run saved my opponent.
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Old 03-23-2013, 04:27 AM   #4600
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you'll never have a chance to stack anyone if you don't bet turn.
truth
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