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Old 03-14-2013, 06:20 PM   #4476
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
I would rather buyin something comfortable. What if the biggest stack is 500bbs+.

I wonder what pros do in that situation, cover the big stack or buy in like 200-300bbs.
you cover the fish but like there isn't much if any difference between 300xbb and 1,000xbb because people aren't sticking in 300xbb that often
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Old 03-14-2013, 06:45 PM   #4477
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With how underolled I am since I pulled back my cash from an attempted pooled bankroll with a good friend, I have had to keep my starting stack at 100bb.

Matching the biggest fish at the table is definitely optimal with deepstacked fish at the table. They don't understand deep stacked play and consistently pay off with 500 bb deep stacks with their ****ty rag two pairs, and oversets.

Good thing that I am currently CRUSHING the local 1-2 cash games. I started with 2 BI two weeks ago solo lol - up to 12 BIs now. (Luckily I am running really hot). Not sure if anyone has ever started a roll with nothing like this before.
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Old 03-14-2013, 06:49 PM   #4478
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not to sound like a prick but set over set you are winning a big pot no matter what really so that is a bad example

rag flushes or sets on wet boards when you have the nuts is a better example
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:02 PM   #4479
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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you cover the fish but like there isn't much if any difference between 300xbb and 1,000xbb because people aren't sticking in 300xbb that often
there's a huge difference because fish don't know the difference between 300bb and 1000bb

He might only be sticking in 300bb 1 in 300 hands but when he does that's an extra 700bb of mistakes he can make.

The 2/5 game here is $300-$1500, a lot of people buy in for the max and then chip up to 400-500bb and I have seen a lot of lolbad play when deep. People just go "**** it I have a set I'm never folding", no planning ahead or thinking at all.
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:10 PM   #4480
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I see fish drop 4-500BB in a hand about once a week. It's +EV to be super deep with a fish for more than just stack purposes though. They don't understand the threat of the deep stack either. I'm not saying bluffing huge should be a big part of your game, but when a fish with top pair sees a $200 turn bet knowing you've got $600 behind, they often urinate audibly.

Quote:
Good thing that I am currently CRUSHING the local 1-2 cash games. I started with 2 BI two weeks ago solo lol - up to 12 BIs now. (Luckily I am running really hot). Not sure if anyone has ever started a roll with nothing like this before.
Wait for it.
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:17 PM   #4481
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People who don't second guess bottom sets 400 bb deep when facing aggression from an aggro regular are my bread and butter lately.

I hate playing so nitty, but so far it's been rewarding singling out people with a faceup PF calling range of 22-66 and simply playing 77+ and consistantly oversetting them night after night with range domination.

I'm not saying that I'm not going to value bet low sets like that deep stacked, it's just the reverse implied odds of setting up with them get worse as play gets deeper and I tend to err on the side of caution when a passive fish goes aggro on me on raggy boards.

I guess I am just trying to point out that oversetting someone shouldn't always result in a huge pot. If players were more aware of the reverse implied odds at hand (luckily they aren't) I could see it not being as profitable.
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:18 PM   #4482
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I'm not sure if counting on set over set as your main source of profit is a sustainable strategy.
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:20 PM   #4483
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I'm not sure if counting on set over set as your main source of profit is a sustainable strategy.
This, you're running really ****ing hot.
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Old 03-14-2013, 07:54 PM   #4484
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I'm not sure if counting on set over set as your main source of profit is a sustainable strategy.
Uh-oh.

Spoiler:
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Old 03-14-2013, 08:58 PM   #4485
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I'm not sure if counting on set over set as your main source of profit is a sustainable strategy.
Especially when the guy with the flush wipes you both out...
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Old 03-14-2013, 09:38 PM   #4486
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11t,

Thanks for the analysis. Seems very accurate.

I guess that I have been overly degenerate in these prop bets then because I have been giving even money coin flip bets to fish in order to keep them entertained. Basically, I adhere to the DGAF school of giving gamble action to fish to keep the game atmosphere light and gambly. My past experience also indicates that certain fish and regs will start tilting if they get stuck on coin flips, so there is often +EV metagame benefits for me to do coin flip prop bets because I don't tilt when I get stuck.

FWIW, I have done coin flip prop bets for significantly more than than 1k in the past.

Recently, however, certain regs have been offering me odds on my prop bets, so I was curious about the bankroll implications.
One thing to keep in mind is that the kelly criterion gives you the *optimal* amount to bet to maximize your expected bankroll growth. It is not intended to be an upper bound. If you have a logarithmic utility of money (kelly criterion), it is probably still worth taking bets with an edge that are for more than kelly would suggest for your bankroll, as long as they aren't a *lot* larger than the kelly amount. A quick log utility estimator in Excel shows that with a bankroll of 20k, the 1000 bet with a 51.25%edge is ok, just not as good for you as a 500 bet (which is close to your optimal bet size).

If you are an aggressive gambler, the Kelly criterion represents the bullseye of amount to bet, and there's a reasonably wide range that offers similar expected utility. For instance, with a 20k bankroll, your 2.5% edge bet has a utility adjusted gain of $6.25 at $500 which is right around the kelly criterion bet. Betting $300 has a utility adjusted gain of $5.25 which is nearly as much. Betting $700 also has a utility adjusted gain of $5.25. Betting $1000 starts getting dicey, cutting your adjusted gain to roughly zero.

Generally the utility adjusted amount rises gradually with your bet, until it plateaus near the kelly amount, then comes down slightly at first, and starts going over a cliff usually somewhere around double the kelly amount.

This all assumes you have roughly logarithmic utility of money which should be relatively close to accurate for a very aggressive investor or an advantage gambler, but will be much too risk-loving for the typical person.

It's worth putting together a spreadsheet to analyze props like this. It isn't hard. Here's the formula I used:

Start by converting your bet to an EV equivalent bet of win X n% of the time, and lose X 1-n% of the time.

ln is the natural logarithm function in excel etc.

pwin is the probability (between 0 and 1) of winning the bet
bet is the bet amount
bankroll is your bankroll

util-adjusted-EV == exp( pwin*ln(bankroll+bet) + (1-pwin)*ln(bankroll-bet) ) - bankroll

Utility adjusted EV is basically logarithmic utils converted back into dollar units. For very small bets relative to your bankroll, this will be very close to linear EV (what we're normally talking about when we say EV).

The primary function of good bankroll management is to keep your bets at sizes where your utility of money function is close enough to linear that standard EV calcs are close enough. If you put too much money on the table your utility of money function starts to become important, and you become exploitable by people whose utility at those stakes is still close to linear (scared money).

For crazy prop-land, it's a good idea to have a sense of your real utility of money function, and what kinds of bets/edges will maximize it, or at least be in range of maximizing it.

Short answer: your 1k bets are not terrible and probably don't hurt you much unless you have a hard bankroll or are more risk-averse than a typical poker player.
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Old 03-14-2013, 10:05 PM   #4487
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by OopsImBroke View Post
Good thing that I am currently CRUSHING the local 1-2 cash games. I started with 2 BI two weeks ago solo lol - up to 12 BIs now. (Luckily I am running really hot). Not sure if anyone has ever started a roll with nothing like this before.
Only bring 5bi with me when I'm away at school bc I don't like bringing my entire roll when I can't play consistently. Just a mental thing, and playing under rolled is not fun. Some semesters I only get to play 10-20 hrs bc I lose a few bi and just call it off for the semester. Luckily this semester I'm on a 15bi upswing and it helps pad my roll when I get home. Just always make sure I'm in a situation to make more than I can lose, but starting from scratch is going to be extremely difficult.
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Old 03-14-2013, 10:42 PM   #4488
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Originally Posted by OopsImBroke View Post
Good thing that I am currently CRUSHING the local 1-2 cash games. I started with 2 BI two weeks ago solo lol - up to 12 BIs now. (Luckily I am running really hot). Not sure if anyone has ever started a roll with nothing like this before.
I hate to break it to you, but it's pretty much a degen cliche. I think they've even made some movies. Every gambler's dream is to run 1 buyin into a fortune.

And since it's not crazy to start with 1-2 buyins as a rec gambler with a day job, I am quite sure that a fair number of poker pros have done exactly that. Since I started playing live after a 5 year poker break, I'm currently +1040 off an original buyin of $80. I've yet to have a single down session. I've had plenty of down sessions at *play money* online, but so far my worst live sessions this year have been about break even.

Sometimes you run good.
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Old 03-14-2013, 10:55 PM   #4489
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Hey Mes, by optimal I thought that meant the statistically fastest way to grow your bankroll while minimizing risk of ruin. By definition how could you be better than optimal?

Haven't grinded thru teh maths yet since its late and I'm about to eat some steak
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Old 03-14-2013, 10:56 PM   #4490
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This, you're running really ****ing hot.
yeah no ****, like getting a 200xbb stack in is easy in a 3bet pot, 300xbb plus is a bit more difficult. some people can't ****ing read between the lines.
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Old 03-15-2013, 10:09 AM   #4491
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Hey Mes, by optimal I thought that meant the statistically fastest way to grow your bankroll while minimizing risk of ruin. By definition how could you be better than optimal?

Haven't grinded thru teh maths yet since its late and I'm about to eat some steak
11T, Kelly is NOT the fastest way to grow your bankroll, that's a common misconception. Kelly is not even the fraction of your bankroll to wager (rather, it is equal to the fraction of your bankroll to wager in special circumstances -- and in most gambling situations those circumstances are satisfied, but in things like trading markets, Kelly is no longer a fraction in most casees).

Regardless, The Kelly Criterion maximizes the leverage factor to apply to a stake asymptotically -- as the number of plays apprach infinity. For example, if you have a positive expectation play, that's maximized by wagering 100% of your stake. AIf you were to quit at two plays, the expected optimal fraction is somewhere between 1.0 and the asymptotic "fraction" (and again, one needs to be careful using he Kelly Criterion here because that only equals the fraction in special cases, and never results ina value less than the asymptotic fraction, which we all know can be trouble). So the fastest way to reach a specific goal is either have a target in terms of number of plays you will encounter, and find what is the optimal fraction with regard to that, OR, to have a specific upper goal on the stake, iterate to that value of number of plays and corresponding optimal fraction for that number of plays which results in the least number of plays.

Lastly, and this may be a value, a fraction of your stake that is more germane to what you are trying to do than the growth optimal fraction. Rather than wager the growth optimal fraction (or Kelly Leverage Factor, the two are likely equal in this instance on this thread) is to wager that point to the left, that point which is less than the grwoth optimal fraction where the function of growth with respect to percent of stake wagered flips from being concave up to concave down -- the inflection point left of growth optimal which represents that amount of your stake to risk where marginal increase in gain is maximized with respect to marginal increase in risk. The math behind this for those who are interested is at http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.c...act_id=2230874

-Ralph Vince
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Old 03-15-2013, 10:41 AM   #4492
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Thank you for your reply and I just saved your paper in my drop box for later, it looks interesting.

On the Kelly wiki it seems clear that the Kelly betting strategy is iterative and not for infinite runs. Is this correct or am I thinking about it wrong? I do understand that it is best to bet to the left of the inflection point and not to the right with respect to gambling but how can it be correct to wager 100% of your stake (as in bankroll?) for a positive expectation play or is this with respect to investing where the risk of losing all of your money is much less and not a 1k flip with a 50 dollar overlay.

With investing etc. you aren't likely to lose all of the money you risk (unlike gambling) which is where I am guessing a lot of the mathemagical differences come in?
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Old 03-15-2013, 10:54 AM   #4493
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I can think of two distinctions:

There is a difference in modeling an event with only two outcomes (win all or lose all) vs. an event where you may have a range of outcomes from a risk of ruin perspective.

The other thing is, in gambling, presumably, you're making the same bet over and over again (at least for Kelly criterion purposes). You're running it 20 times with the same deck for instance. That really isn't exactly replicable in the investment world. You can theoretically do it but it's basically impossible from a real-world perspective, since you won't find 20 investments that are exactly the same. You have to fit them to a distribution.

The Kelly criterion is more accurate for the discrete gambling problem than for investing, IMO.
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Old 03-15-2013, 12:51 PM   #4494
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Wow, a lot of great replies to my prop bet question. Thanks so far.

And on a side note, a reg with whom I play sometimes was doing 500 coin flips the other day. And he ended up getting another reg to give him 5% overlay on a 2500 coin flip.

Assuming that this reg happens to have a 50k poker bankroll separate from his life bankroll, and also probably has a 50/hour win rate, is the 2500 coin flip bet with 5% overlay +EV or -EV?
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Old 03-15-2013, 12:57 PM   #4495
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I'm ball parking that it is quite +EV to do it like once and quite -EV to do it twice

that kind of sounds ridiculous but it makes sense to me, like as a one time risk it isn't too "risky" but if you would run the event over and over again without having a large enough bankroll the short term variance could easily be too great and you don't hit the long run quick enough to realize your edge.
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Old 03-18-2013, 02:47 PM   #4496
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I'm up like 7k in the last 100 hours

COME AT ME BROS
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Old 03-18-2013, 03:01 PM   #4497
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^nh 11t. I'm up just over $2,400 in my last 4 session totalling 13hrs.

[x] sustainable. ;-)
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Old 03-18-2013, 03:03 PM   #4498
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FFFFUUUUUUUUU

in all seriousness, I had a pretty long stretch of running like trash combined with playing poorly here and there and confidence is rising.

However, I know I can play much much better than I am.
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Old 03-18-2013, 03:15 PM   #4499
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11t, not to one-up you here or anything, but I just played my 100th hour at my local casino this weekend and I'm now up $11,880, all at 2/5. I'm playing better now than I was when I started but am still making plenty of mistakes. I shipped 500 last night on a horribly played hand when it should have been obvious my opp had a set. Ugh. Still ended up 550 in 5 hours.

[ ] sustainable


55 hours played at my other casino and I'm up $170 total.

[ ] sustainable
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Old 03-18-2013, 03:20 PM   #4500
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must be nice to run like god
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