Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel
1. 124 hours is a small sample
2. It's extremely difficult to "grow a roll" at 1/2 or 1/3 without taking anything out of it. It's beatable, but unless you're crushing and playing perfectly, not for any significant amount. If you're paying expenses on top of that it probably is impossible to grow your roll.
I actually had a very similar winrate to you in my first 120 hours, and I was maybe a fifth of the player I am now. I then broke even or so in my next 200 hours of 1/2, while steadily improving.
To compare my skill then to now, back then I couldn't even comment on LLSNL threads. I'd read a thread, and I'd be like hmm, I don't know what to do! I was totally clueless. Now I feel I can pretty competently answer all but the trickiest hands posted here.
It's amazing just how lucky and unlucky it is possible to be in live poker, even for someone aware of variance and sample size it's easy to say "Wow I did GREAT, well I might have been a bit lucky but if my winrate is even half of this that's good!" And 400 hours later you discover you're a breakeven player.
This is sooooo true.
I ran like Jeebus my first 100 hours. And then the variance train began! Now have a much larger sample size and a very consistent wr, but man it hits you at first, when the run goot stops all of a sudden.
Phil Galfond had an interesting post (think its a "best of" somewhere) that most good poker players had to run good in the beginning, thats why we are here. We played (semi?) decent, ran like god, and got into the game. Then when variance hit we had the moxie to stick around bc of all of our previous run goot. It was a pretty interesting concept.
+1 to not milking your BR, it would be very challenging to grow it with just llsnl play if you are using it as the source funding for your life expenses.