Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-04-2013, 02:08 PM   #4276
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,436
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sao View Post
The room I play in was very busy Saturday night, even by Saturday night standards. A player at the table asked one of the dealers what was going on and the dealer said "First weekend of the month. Also, tax season."

I have only been keeping a log since August so I can't go back to prior tax seasons, but I did a quick analysis of my data looking at the first weekend of each month. I found that my win rate is about 2.5 times greater the first weekend of the month than the rest of the month. It is only eight months of data and 52 hours on first weekends vs. 258 for all other weekends but it's a pretty stark difference.

What do other people with data find on (a) first weekends of the month vs. rest of month and (b) tax season (say, mid-Feb to mid-April) vs. rest of the year?
My guess is that this could just be statistical noise and unless you really put in huge sample size that it's probably meaningless to attempt to analyze.

As an example, my January of 2012 was the worst month I've ever booked. But my January of 2013 was the best month I've every booked. Obviously lol small amount of hours booked in each month due to only going out once a week. But still, a pretty good indication that I can't draw any worthwhile conclusions based on such small amount of hours, and I'm guessing that applies to your case as well.

GbutI'mnotastatsmajor,sodon'tquotemeonthatG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 02:15 PM   #4277
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
My guess is that this could just be statistical noise and unless you really put in huge sample size that it's probably meaningless to attempt to analyze.

As an example, my January of 2012 was the worst month I've ever booked. But my January of 2013 was the best month I've every booked. Obviously lol small amount of hours booked in each month due to only going out once a week. But still, a pretty good indication that I can't draw any worthwhile conclusions based on such small amount of hours, and I'm guessing that applies to your case as well.

GbutI'mnotastatsmajor,sodon'tquotemeonthatG
No, I think you raise a fair point.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 02:40 PM   #4278
sao
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: The Shed End
Posts: 566
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I am not looking for proof that first weekends are better but knowing that it be taken as gospel around casinos that the start of the month is better than the end of the month because "everybody just got their checks", I was hoping to crowd-source some data and see if others who track their play see similar patterns. But I promise not to publish the results in the Journal of Poker Statistics.

P.S. GG, you were obviously a fish in January 2012 and were a world class player in January 2013. That's what hanging around llsnl does for people.
sao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 02:54 PM   #4279
iLikeCaliDonks
banned
 
iLikeCaliDonks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: California
Posts: 15,163
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Standard info for a gambler. Missing sessions on the first threw third is losing money. Never miss the 15th, Never miss a friday, all those days are mandatory.
iLikeCaliDonks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 02:59 PM   #4280
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,436
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sao View Post
P.S. GG, you were obviously a fish in January 2012 and were a world class player in January 2013. That's what hanging around llsnl does for people.
What are you talking about, I'm still a fish!

The funny thing about the January 2012 horrible month is that I was coming off an 8 session win streak to end 2011 (which was my record session winning streak until just recently). Then I have that terrible January 2012 and start thinking all kinds of things. Did the fish stay away from the casino due to having Christmas bills to pay and being short on cash? Did they all make New Years resolutions, one of them not to gamble, and hadn't broken them yet? Etc., etc. The great January 2013 month leans more towards the real reason, which is it's just a bunch a random/variance **** that happens and there's no real rhyme/reason for it.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 04:52 PM   #4281
Hamirek
stranger
 
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 11
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi guys,
I got a question about rake.

I am playing 2$/4$ nl live cash. Rake is pretty awful, 10% capped at 13$.
Considering that there is no tip for dealers, I am strictly following BR management, and the casino is like 5 mins from my home place, which means zero expenses.
I've played like 10 sessions, I know it's tiny sample but anyway.
In these 10 sessions I made 2500$ in like 42hours.

This game is extremely juicy!! Especialy on saturday's nights it is not uncommon to meet ppl who don't even know basic rules(winning combinations).

Is this game beatable for long term? I really looking forward to play it regulary(30 hours per week).

Cheers guys!
Hamirek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 04:56 PM   #4282
bubonicplay
Pooh-Bah
 
bubonicplay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, $$
Posts: 3,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

def beatable.
bubonicplay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 05:41 PM   #4283
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t View Post
A good estimate is probably 28 hands/hr
I use 32/hr and often think it is too low. I really need to suck it up and count hands for a week.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 05:45 PM   #4284
iLikeCaliDonks
banned
 
iLikeCaliDonks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: California
Posts: 15,163
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

My general is 30/hr. Some dealers are faster. Sometimes the action is makes the game slower. I have always used that number. Counted hands for like a week to get accurate details.
iLikeCaliDonks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:07 PM   #4285
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,436
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
I use 32/hr and often think it is too low. I really need to suck it up and count hands for a week.
I have a jellybean counting method you can use.

My guess is the more hands you get in an hour the far worse the table is.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:19 PM   #4286
bip!
Slow Pony
 
bip!'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: not on urban dictionary...
Posts: 13,709
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
I have a jellybean counting method you can use.

My guess is the more hands you get in an hour the far worse the table is.
So much Yes to this... high hands per hour means less flops, less turns, less rivers... boo villains who fold.

Give me 15 hands per hour with 14 of them going to showdown vs 30 hands per hour with 20 done pre-flop.
bip! is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:28 PM   #4287
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
I use 32/hr and often think it is too low. I really need to suck it up and count hands for a week.
I imagine there is some strong variance in when/where you play in what the avg # of hands is that you see.

Given your range of available games (by room) and times, I suspect you are better positioned than most to comment on this.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:30 PM   #4288
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by bip! View Post
So much Yes to this... high hands per hour means less flops, less turns, less rivers... boo villains who fold.

Give me 15 hands per hour with 14 of them going to showdown vs 30 hands per hour with 20 done pre-flop.
Maybe if you're running hot...

It would be much more beneficial to see more hands for me than my opponents.

Btw, I am not talking about the polar extreme of 15 hands or 35 hands, but rather something in between. I don't think I would ever sit at a table that's playing 15 hands/hr, unless of course I am the one hitting all of the hands and going to SD.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:30 PM   #4289
iLikeCaliDonks
banned
 
iLikeCaliDonks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: California
Posts: 15,163
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Your not going to be involved in all the hands, ldo. It takes 221 hands to get AA(always play 6+ hour sessions). So you should plan your sessions according to that. If your getting 15 hands an hour in holdem. Get up quick fast in a hurry. That's live plo or limit holdem numbers.
iLikeCaliDonks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 06:31 PM   #4290
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
I use 32/hr and often think it is too low. I really need to suck it up and count hands for a week.
Write down number of orbits and just count number of missed hands, which is probably easier to track.

If not, even counting orbits should give you a general idea.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 10:14 PM   #4291
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author
 
DK Barrel's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sao View Post
The room I play in was very busy Saturday night, even by Saturday night standards. A player at the table asked one of the dealers what was going on and the dealer said "First weekend of the month. Also, tax season."

I have only been keeping a log since August so I can't go back to prior tax seasons, but I did a quick analysis of my data looking at the first weekend of each month. I found that my win rate is about 2.5 times greater the first weekend of the month than the rest of the month. It is only eight months of data and 52 hours on first weekends vs. 258 for all other weekends but it's a pretty stark difference.

What do other people with data find on (a) first weekends of the month vs. rest of month and (b) tax season (say, mid-Feb to mid-April) vs. rest of the year?
Many people with salaried jobs get paid semi-monthly, with one cheque coming around the middle of the month and one at the end. So there's more disposable income going around on the first weekend of a month.

$1,761 in 35.25 hours on the first weekends of the months in my records at 1/2

25.69bb/hr in 44.25 hours including both 1/2 and 2/5

lol sample size though, would be interesting to see others' data

Last edited by DK Barrel; 03-04-2013 at 10:22 PM.
DK Barrel is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 11:22 PM   #4292
PoppaTMan
veteran
 
PoppaTMan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,864
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Can't speak to tax season, but it's pretty much universal that the first weekend of the month, barring holidays, is going to be the liveliest.
PoppaTMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2013, 12:31 AM   #4293
wWizardG
banned
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: The other side of the world
Posts: 1,126
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you had to approximate the difference in EV between playing a Monday afternoon and a Saturday night, what would you put the number at?

ie. If you're earning $x/hr on a Saturday, and you're earning $y/hr on a Monday afternoon...

$x - $y = $?

I know this is all speculation, and the answer depends on each player. Just curious to see some approximations.
wWizardG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2013, 03:48 AM   #4294
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Write down number of orbits and just count number of missed hands, which is probably easier to track.

If not, even counting orbits should give you a general idea.
Yeah, I'll do something like this for a week or so and see what I come up with.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-05-2013, 10:01 AM   #4295
sao
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: The Shed End
Posts: 566
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
Standard info for a gambler. Missing sessions on the first threw third is losing money. Never miss the 15th, Never miss a friday, all those days are mandatory.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DK Barrel View Post
Many people with salaried jobs get paid semi-monthly, with one cheque coming around the middle of the month and one at the end. So there's more disposable income going around on the first weekend of a month.
Quote:
Originally Posted by PoppaTMan View Post
Can't speak to tax season, but it's pretty much universal that the first weekend of the month, barring holidays, is going to be the liveliest.
I am clear about the theory as to why the first weekend (and maybe also after the 15th) would be more profitable but what I am trying to do is get data from all of the people in this thread who keep records of their play to test the theory. So DK, you are at $49.95/hr at 1/2 in first weekends; what about the rest of the month?

And how about everyone else? I know that many of you have the data. It doesn't even have to be win rates that you post; just the ratio of first weekend win rate to rest of the month win rate.

Remember, understanding the math(s) is what separates us from the fish.
sao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-06-2013, 03:49 AM   #4296
Krakus
banned
 
Krakus's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: CHICAGO
Posts: 153
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I finally moved up to 2/5 from 1/2 and after my first 100 hours of play at 2/5 I am +$8,972 and I'm averaging $90/hr.

Running Good
Krakus is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2013, 03:03 PM   #4297
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker View Post
Write down number of orbits and just count number of missed hands, which is probably easier to track.

If not, even counting orbits should give you a general idea.
Counting hands has turned out to be super easy. I knew I should have done it a long time ago.

I just open the notes app on my phone, and type an "x" into the note immediately after acting on my hand.

39.8/hr so far this week. I expect the weekend to be significantly slower.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2013, 03:17 PM   #4298
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
There are counter apps out there that's even easier, FYI.

There's one called Tally Counter.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2013, 03:38 PM   #4299
iLikeCaliDonks
banned
 
iLikeCaliDonks's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2011
Location: California
Posts: 15,163
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

39/hr vegas games are tight as hell.
iLikeCaliDonks is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-07-2013, 04:31 PM   #4300
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,436
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
39.8/hr so far this week.
Omg your game sounds horrible.
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:44 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive