Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-01-2013, 12:45 PM   #4251
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,718
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Krakus View Post
I assume you are playing 1/3?

Do you play in Vegas?
1/2 $300 max. I play in LV, mostly at Red Rock and Venetian.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 01:17 PM   #4252
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Looks like the only day you took off was Valentines Day? Impressive nose-to-the-grindstone grinding ability; how long is your average session?
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 01:22 PM   #4253
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,718
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek View Post
Looks like the only day you took off was Valentines Day? Impressive nose-to-the-grindstone grinding ability; how long is your average session?
Yeah, I was pretty sick from 2/12-2/15 and 2/14 was the worst of it so I just stayed home. Average session is about 6 hours....weekend days are usually 6-10 hours and weekdays are usually 4-6 hours. Some weeknights if I'm up $300+ quickly I will just lock it in after a quick 2-4 hour session. Last night I played a little less than 3 hours but won a couple good pots so just decided to get dinner and go home instead of grinding another few hours.
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 02:31 PM   #4254
ohsnapzbrah
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,926
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

About how long before you guys know if you're a winning live player or your true skill range? I played online cash from 2009-2011, starting fairly breakeven but eventually getting it and moving up to the point where I was comfortably rolled for 25nl (including being more aggressive, playing a bit looser, and starting as many tables as I could). At BF, I was probably a 4bb/100 winner at 25nl FR.

I dabbled a bit in Everleaf (lol) before they shut down their doors to US players and turned out to be a shady ponzi scheme. I was crushing the super low stakes (euro 10nl and lower) and took some time off. My state built a casino about 10 minutes from my house, and it has a fairly large sized poker room (but awful rake structure). I hesitated going to it until mid-February, when I had enough money to take a couple of splashes at the 1/2 games.

So far I've played 5 sessions (lol), totalling 19 hours (I'm a busy man) and am averaging a winrate of -$14.21/hour. I keep track of all of my sessions in an excel spreadsheet, in case I ever do make enough money to have to claim taxes on it. I know I definitely need more hours and more sessions to get at a true winrate or something close to it (I refuse to accept I'm a -$14/hour player at 1/2, these guys are awful). About how long does it take before I get close to this?

Keep in mind I don't really have a bankroll as much as I have physical cash set aside to play poker with, and if I bust that then I don't take any money from my checking account or savings account until I get my tax refund back, which will help feed the BR. I have somewhere between a part-time and full-time job working ~30-40 hours a week, a busy social life, a girlfriend currently at college who becomes emotional if I don't call her every night to talk to her (even though half the time she falls asleep on the phone), and have absolutely no aspirations to quit my job to play poker full time. In fact, I'm back in college come fall semester. Any tips, any advice?
ohsnapzbrah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 02:45 PM   #4255
bubonicplay
Pooh-Bah
 
bubonicplay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: LV, $$
Posts: 3,934
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Sit down at the table and try to win, that's just about all you can do.
bubonicplay is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 03:07 PM   #4256
timmay28
veteran
 
timmay28's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 2,737
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

^^ what he said

to assign an arbitrary # of hours you need to deduce anything that resembles a true live winrate.... I'm gonna say 800-1000... surely someone will correct me.
timmay28 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-01-2013, 03:19 PM   #4257
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The higher your winrate (relative to size of game) the smaller the volume you need.

That said its moot; you should be able to estimate your edge by spotting leaks.
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 03:59 AM   #4258
gramps1128
The Situation
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 94
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

never posted in the br thread so here's a little background before i show numbers from the last 3 months.

got fired from my job last feb & decided to give da pokahs a try full-time. there were several reasons for this, not the least of which was the imminent opening of a new room in our area that promised to be a fish tank.

i played on my own for a couple of months making ~$20~/hr, then picked up a backing deal from one of the most respected players in our area. in my first 4 months playing on the stake i made $22/hr over almost 600 hrs. a combination of running bad & playing bad from aug.-oct. cost me the staking deal. i got my game turned around mid-sept. but the variance train kinda ran me over after i started playing good again.

i played a few hours in november but nothing to speak of. i spent most of the month reading as much llsnl as i could & took some time away from the game trying to get my head straight. i'd done a little reading on some sites & watched some videos, but had received most of my coaching via the staking deal. anyway, i found the llsnl forum here to be extremely helpful & started fresh in december playing 2/2nl w/a $1k br. i was buying in for $100-$150 initially as i sought to build up my br. at the start of dec. i had about a month's worth of expenses in the bank & a monthly nut of ~$1800~, so this was pretty much my last chance to stay in the game without finding a real job.

december
total sessions: 26
wins: 13
losses: 13
hours: 99
biggest win: $610
biggest loss: $485
profit: $1450
profit/hr: $14.65
profit/session: $55.77

january
total sessions: 23
wins: 15
losses: 8
hours: 99.25
biggest win: $815
biggest loss: $700
profit: $2380
profit/hr: $23.98
profit/session: $103.48

february
total sessions: 24
wins: 18
losses: 6
hours: 132.25
biggest win: $845
biggest loss: $1200
profit: $2240
profit/hr: 16.94
profit/session: $93.33

i started taking some shots @ 2/5 in late january buying in @ $300. the 2/5 games are often better than 2/2 but obv the variance is way higher. i was crushing the last 2 weeks of feb winning 9/10 sessions & lost $600 in 3 hrs on thursday.

i'm hanging in there for now & hoping i can keep playing 2/5 but am prepared to drop down if i take too big of a hit to the br. feel free to blast away at me for playing too big on too short of a roll.
gramps1128 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 11:36 AM   #4259
ohsnapzbrah
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 3,926
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I'm a live poker noob and definitely don't know as much about the game as others in this forum, but shouldn't you play more hours in order for it to be a job? Obviously February was over 40 hr/wk.
ohsnapzbrah is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-02-2013, 11:57 AM   #4260
squid face
ChatThreadPrez
 
squid face's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: grabbin c-notes from the money tree
Posts: 10,246
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ohsnapzbrah View Post
I'm a live poker noob and definitely don't know as much about the game as others in this forum, but shouldn't you play more hours in order for it to be a job? Obviously February was over 40 hr/wk.
possible math noob as well (4 weeks in feb * 40hrs =160 hrs)

that being said and all snarkiness aside he should really be pounding pounding out the hours in order to grow his roll
squid face is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2013, 07:38 AM   #4261
gramps1128
The Situation
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 94
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i agree that i should pound out the hours. my goal is to increase the number/length of my sessions as the br grows. when staked last year i was playing 150-190 hrs/month.
gramps1128 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2013, 11:31 PM   #4262
Elan Vital
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 58
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quick BRM question. I just started playing 1/2 semi-regularly with a BR of $2k. I have a full-time job besides poker, 2 kids and a mortgage, etc., so "semi-regularly" here means once a week so far, with hopes of getting that up to 2-3 times a week at some point. That $2k is completely separate from our family finances, so there is no "real-world pressure" on it, but there's no refunding that BR for a long time if I go bust with it. My short-term goals are to learn the game, play a lot of hands, and ya know, hopefully not bust my BR, since the wife has made clear that there's no more where that came from. My long-term goal (talking about 3 years down the road) is to have enough of a BR and enough confidence in my game to be playing at least as a serious-paying avocation, if not my main job, say at 2/5 or higher.

I thought the cap on the 1/2 at the casino I had been playing at was 200, so that would've made 10 BIs, which I realize is probably the absolute bare minimum of what I need to begin a venture like this. I found out the 1/2 cap is actually 500, which means I just pretty much can't buy in full there at this point. Should I find some place that does cap the 1/2 at 200, or should I just buy in 200 at this 1/2 500 cap game?
Elan Vital is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2013, 11:39 PM   #4263
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

$500 cap at $1/2! Nice, where is this?

Since you didn't notice the cap right away ... does that mean that most players are still buying in for $100-300? If that's the case then I wouldn't worry about it and just buy in with $200.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-03-2013, 11:47 PM   #4264
Elan Vital
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 58
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Angrist View Post
$500 cap at $1/2! Nice, where is this?

Since you didn't notice the cap right away ... does that mean that most players are still buying in for $100-300? If that's the case then I wouldn't worry about it and just buy in with $200.
Yes. I didn't even think to look until I saw a few people buying in with $300.

I've got two other options in reasonable driving distance from my house. One is capped at 200 and was super soft when I played there this Friday night, but they've gone from having a room of 11 tables to having just three tables out on the casino floor (think slot machines going off all around, very loud), only one of which is 1/2 NLHE, with the other two PLO. I waited an hour to get a seat Friday night after driving 35 min. to get there. The third option is a total unknown to me, as I've never played there. But it's in driving distance. I've heard from others that it has a reputation for having a lot of people who like to gambool.
Elan Vital is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:08 AM   #4265
Angrist
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 3,883
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Having people occasionally buying in for $300 shouldn't change your table dynamic an awful lot from the more common $200.

The second room sounds like a disaster. I hate burning 1.5 hrs before even seeing a hand, so unless you can call ahead and get on the list to cut down the wait I'd skip that room.

Go try the third room and see how it is.


I've got 3 casinos 35 mins from my house, 3 more an hour away (each in a different direction), two charity rooms 5 mins away, and another dozen or so charity rooms within an hour. The best advice that I could give on room selection is to go and try as many rooms as you can, at least twice each, and see which ones you like the best.
Angrist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 01:58 AM   #4266
madlondoner
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 5,538
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Are you good at playing deep? At the deep place do people play aggressively?

If you are ok at playing deep then go there, buy in for 200 and see how it goes. The great thing about deep games is that a lot of players are quite capable of playing with 100bb but make huge mistakes when deep. If you have aces and are playing 100bb there isnt much you can do that is that wrong. Getting it in post is never that bad. Now if stacks are 200effective then that is no longer the case and if you can flop a set vs someone who cant fold big pairs 200bb deep it is a goldmine.
madlondoner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 02:29 AM   #4267
drcappuc
journeyman
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 221
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Okay, I'm looking for anyone who has played a decent sample size at the 400 NL at commerce. 5-10 blinds. What do we think is sustainable at this game for an hourly?

I venture to say the best players in this game can beat it for 70-80 per hour, possibly more depending on the crowd.
drcappuc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 10:53 AM   #4268
ATsai
veteran
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: Orange County/LA, CA
Posts: 2,409
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Probably 60/hour for the best players at the 400 cap 5/10 NL.
ATsai is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:00 PM   #4269
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Never played at commerce but I would think it would have to be quite soft to get 60 $/hr
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:12 PM   #4270
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hey fellas. Is there any merit to thinking of your winrate in terms of BB/100? I was figuring it out last night to try to compare it to online play, but I'm not sure if it makes much sense since I'm estimating hands/hr. It was a ridiculous figure BTW.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:15 PM   #4271
11t
Bo Pelini's #1 Fan
 
11t's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Spewville
Posts: 31,421
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

A good estimate is probably 28 hands/hr
11t is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:16 PM   #4272
spikeraw22
The Situation
 
spikeraw22's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: SB is the new BTN
Posts: 8,731
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I went with 25 since my room tends to be slow, but i'll recalculate using the 28 number. It's kind of comical. Live pokers. ha.
spikeraw22 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:35 PM   #4273
sao
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: The Shed End
Posts: 566
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The room I play in was very busy Saturday night, even by Saturday night standards. A player at the table asked one of the dealers what was going on and the dealer said "First weekend of the month. Also, tax season."

I have only been keeping a log since August so I can't go back to prior tax seasons, but I did a quick analysis of my data looking at the first weekend of each month. I found that my win rate is about 2.5 times greater the first weekend of the month than the rest of the month. It is only eight months of data and 52 hours on first weekends vs. 258 for all other weekends but it's a pretty stark difference.

What do other people with data find on (a) first weekends of the month vs. rest of month and (b) tax season (say, mid-Feb to mid-April) vs. rest of the year?
sao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 12:50 PM   #4274
gobbledygeek
Poet Laureate of LLSNL
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 33,366
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Set two personal records on my Saturday session.

Record#1: Longest NL session, booking 13 hours 40 minutes. I've only ever booked one other longer poker session, a 14 hour 20 minute 2/4 Limit session (where I booked a sweet profit of $11, oh. yeah.)

Record#2: Biggest fall from grace within a single 1/3 NL session and yet still booking a win. Halfway thru my session, I was sailing along at $1210 profit, playing at great tables, and eyeing the real possibility of booking my all time biggest win. In the end, I only booked a $222 win, so a $988 drop within the session (which, had the loss part been a separate session, would have been my second biggest losing session ever). Dropping 3.3 BIs within a single session is quite something considering the biggest overall downswing I've ever booked in my 1000+ hours is only 4.57 BIs.

Cliffs: Booked a $222 win and it felt like the biggest loss of my poker life.

Gthat'sright,I'mcomplainingwhenIwin,cuzthat'showgo odIrunG
gobbledygeek is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-04-2013, 01:56 PM   #4275
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by sao View Post
The room I play in was very busy Saturday night, even by Saturday night standards. A player at the table asked one of the dealers what was going on and the dealer said "First weekend of the month. Also, tax season."

I have only been keeping a log since August so I can't go back to prior tax seasons, but I did a quick analysis of my data looking at the first weekend of each month. I found that my win rate is about 2.5 times greater the first weekend of the month than the rest of the month. It is only eight months of data and 52 hours on first weekends vs. 258 for all other weekends but it's a pretty stark difference.

What do other people with data find on (a) first weekends of the month vs. rest of month and (b) tax season (say, mid-Feb to mid-April) vs. rest of the year?
Anecdotally February was a busier month locally.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:51 AM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive