Two Plus Two Publishing LLC Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash Discussion of no-limit hold’em live cash games of all stakes.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 02-25-2013, 10:06 PM   #4201
madlondoner
Pooh-Bah
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 5,538
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Also you want to have enough of a roll for a game so that if you run bad and lose say 2k, it will not affect you mentally. If you lose 2k and have only 3k behind it will be hard for you to make reasonable decisions as you will be too risk averse.
madlondoner is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-25-2013, 11:27 PM   #4202
cbayly12
banned
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 884
Quote:
Originally Posted by madlondoner View Post
Also you want to have enough of a roll for a game so that if you run bad and lose say 2k, it will not affect you mentally. If you lose 2k and have only 3k behind it will be hard for you to make reasonable decisions as you will be too risk averse.
Exactly. My 5k number was the minimum I'd feel comfortable with for 50 hours.
cbayly12 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 02:36 AM   #4203
Mischa9
old hand
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 1,799
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
Dropping 5k in 50 hours would be sooooo bad at 2/5.
lol wat

i've lost almost 5k in 1 session (8hrs) of 2/5 and i think I generally have a pretty big skill advantage over most of the players at that limit. If you never have big swings like this and losing 5k requires you to lose like 7-8 sessions in a row then yes i guess it could be less likely. Still nothing rediculously out of the ordinary though.
Mischa9 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 03:47 AM   #4204
Sol Reader
The Situation
 
Sol Reader's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: See PG&C Thread. @IsoAcq
Posts: 9,380
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've done more. =P
Sol Reader is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:03 AM   #4205
ibelieveyouoweme$80k
LLSNL FF Champ '13
 
ibelieveyouoweme$80k's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Wentzylvania baby
Posts: 12,851
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

i don't feel so bad about being -$1 for February and -$250 for the year now.
ibelieveyouoweme$80k is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:16 AM   #4206
TAOxEaglex
old hand
 
TAOxEaglex's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,584
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Obviously, your downswings are affected by your regional community. If your local casinos spread games where max BI is 100-150bb then, yeah, a 10 BI downswing (either in 50 hrs or 1 session) is horrific.

But if you're allowed to buy-in to match the chip leader (like in ike's new home, New Orleans) then 5k might really only be 2 or 3 BIs.
TAOxEaglex is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 02:34 PM   #4207
ScooTizzle
enthusiast
 
ScooTizzle's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 97
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I need help with a life changing decision whether to quit my job at UPS or not.

My stats are after 7 months:
1/2NL $18k over 730hrs $25/hr.
2/5NL $5k over 125hrs $39/hr.
Overall with drawing winnings $25k over 850hrs = $28/hr

I work at UPS part time 20hrs a week 4hrs a day Mon-Fri 1030pm-230am. It's ends up being only $11hr $180 a week $11k/year with the best insurance coverage you can get. I'm just turned 22 years old so the insurance is not important to me right now. I have only 2 years in. It takes about 15-20 years to get full time where I live but even that is no guarantee since the economy is bad and they take away and give out less full time jobs every year. I can currently however do double shifts about half the year when it is busy if I need to but since I have been making more money playing poker I have not done any double shifts since my first year when I was broke. It would take atleast 10 more years to make atleast $25/hr. which is what I'm making just from $1/2NL right now. The job is very taxing on every part of my body and it really drains my energy. I eat well and have always been in good shape so staying in shape is not a problem.

I play at the casino 3am-9am right after work most weekdays and whenever I feel like it on the weekends. There is an $100 drawing at 7am and 9am everyday and an average of 10 people in the drawing on weekdays so that is a $10 value each drawing and $100 week if I'm in every drawing. If I were to quit my job I would play 10hrs a day instead of 6 by going to the casino at 11pm instead of 3am and would just take a day off after each losing session. Motivating myself to play will not be a problem because I'm young and have a lot of goals. I dont mind playing just 1/2 even though i know i can beat 2/5 because 2/5 is a very small player pool.

So the question is should I quit my job since I'm making more money and it would take a while to make as much per hour as I do in poker and it feels like I'm going to quit eventually for poker. Another thing I am considering is letting the rest of the year play out and try to play as many hours as i would if I were a full time pro. That would be about 2000 hrs and at about $25hr it would add up to $50k. Right now I'm only on pace for about 1500 hrs. because of my job. I also love to travel and would be willing to move to where the action is if I need to.
ScooTizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 02:40 PM   #4208
ikestoys
banned
 
ikestoys's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: and don't vote trump/sanders
Posts: 94,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mischa9 View Post
lol wat

i've lost almost 5k in 1 session (8hrs) of 2/5 and i think I generally have a pretty big skill advantage over most of the players at that limit. If you never have big swings like this and losing 5k requires you to lose like 7-8 sessions in a row then yes i guess it could be less likely. Still nothing rediculously out of the ordinary though.
losing 10 buy ins in ~240 hands is beyond what's remotely possible through simple variance if you're buying in for 100-200bb.

It's really ****ing bad.
ikestoys is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 02:41 PM   #4209
ikestoys
banned
 
ikestoys's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: and don't vote trump/sanders
Posts: 94,444
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by TAOxEaglex View Post
Obviously, your downswings are affected by your regional community. If your local casinos spread games where max BI is 100-150bb then, yeah, a 10 BI downswing (either in 50 hrs or 1 session) is horrific.

But if you're allowed to buy-in to match the chip leader (like in ike's new home, New Orleans) then 5k might really only be 2 or 3 BIs.
Was not aware of this.

Think the obv play in this spot is to buy in for less than the chip leader until you see how good the table is, then adjust appropriately.
ikestoys is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 02:47 PM   #4210
mpethybridge
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
mpethybridge's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: 86.4% dead, most likely
Posts: 16,997
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I think that I maybe had one -10 BI downswing in 250 hands playing online. I actually think it took about 400 hands. That's once out of somewhere around 2 million hands online since '05. So, yeah, I would think it should ~never happen live.
mpethybridge is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 03:59 PM   #4211
llllllll
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just ****in' play and if you win you win. If it's enough to live on then its enough to live on, good for you. If it isn't, go back to work. Simple.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:04 PM   #4212
sao
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
Location: The Shed End
Posts: 566
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
I need help with a life changing decision whether to quit my job at UPS or not.
1. Do not make life-changing decisions based on advice you get in a chat forum.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
My stats are after 7 months:
1/2NL $18k over 730hrs $25/hr.
2/5NL $5k over 125hrs $39/hr.
Overall with drawing winnings $25k over 850hrs = $28/hr
2. Nice results. Good job.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
I work at UPS part time 20hrs a week 4hrs a day Mon-Fri 1030pm-230am. It's ends up being only $11hr $180 a week $11k/year with the best insurance coverage you can get. I'm just turned 22 years old so the insurance is not important to me right now.
3. Yes, the insurance is important to you. It is insurance against you having to pay way more in medical costs than you can afford. It covers the cost of staying healthy. Don't be short-sighted; have insurance and take advantage of the benefits included. One reason there is less in your paycheck is because you are getting much more in benefits.

And isn't insurance coverage going to be mandatory soon? So if you leave UPS, you will surely be paying more for insurance in the near future.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
So the question is should I quit my job since I'm making more money and it would take a while to make as much per hour as I do in poker and it feels like I'm going to quit eventually for poker.
4. The answer is no. What happens if you have a downswing? Are you going to be able to pay your bills? What is the long-term plan?

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
Another thing I am considering is letting the rest of the year play out and try to play as many hours as i would if I were a full time pro. That would be about 2000 hrs and at about $25hr it would add up to $50k. Right now I'm only on pace for about 1500 hrs. because of my job. I also love to travel and would be willing to move to where the action is if I need to.
5. This sounds reasonable. Just don't count that $50K until it is actually in your hands. You sound like a solid player but you never know.

P.S. Don't make life changing decisions based on advice you get on a chat forum.
sao is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:05 PM   #4213
llllllll
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

PS didnt read whole or recent thread, only page 3.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:08 PM   #4214
llllllll
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

And to the other guy up there ^ keep playing on the side of your job, build up savings/roll whilst keeping a job, retire in 10 years.

People are so scared of hard work.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:22 PM   #4215
bosoxfanatic7117
journeyman
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 247
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would strongly suggest against quitting your day job. I am not sure why you can't do both. If the travel between the 2 locations is not bad, you do not have a family to worry about, and you have no daytime responsibilities, I would play before work/after UPS work more often.

With a job 4 hours a day that does not start until 10pm, I think you could easily do both, ESPECIALLY with great health benefits. Stick to both, if for no other reason than your future (health, resume, retirement, etc)
bosoxfanatic7117 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:27 PM   #4216
ScooTizzle
enthusiast
 
ScooTizzle's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 97
Thanks soa. First I want to say that like you said I would never make a life changing decision based on a chat I'm just simply using it as advise. Secondly my girlfriend is willing to get a job just for the insurance. And finally I can take any downswing head on. My biggest downswing is $2k and since it is 1/2 i can't imagine it ever being more then that. I also have most of my bankroll since I'm a cheap guy and don't have many expenses. I don't see going bust a problem unless poker games change dramatically.
ScooTizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:30 PM   #4217
ScooTizzle
enthusiast
 
ScooTizzle's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Syracuse
Posts: 97
Thanks bosox. I'm not sure what side your pulling for you make great arguments for both. Travel between UPS and casino is about 25mins.
ScooTizzle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 04:35 PM   #4218
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,719
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by ScooTizzle View Post
Thanks soa. First I want to say that like you said I would never make a life changing decision based on a chat I'm just simply using it as advise. Secondly my girlfriend is willing to get a job just for the insurance. And finally I can take any downswing head on. My biggest downswing is $2k and since it is 1/2 i can't imagine it ever being more then that. I also have most of my bankroll since I'm a cheap guy and don't have many expenses. I don't see going bust a problem unless poker games change dramatically.
Your girlfriend can't add you as a dependent on her insurance since you aren't married, so that's not going to do anything....and what if you break up? I sell insurance, and would strongly suggest you make sure the health insurance issue is taken care of before you make this decision. COBRA is going to cost you $400+ per month and if you live in NY, health insurance on the individual market there is insanely expensive ($1k+ per month since everyone pays the same price regardless of age or health).
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 05:34 PM   #4219
RC3
centurion
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 130
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I would absolutely not quit the job that you have until you have over a six figure BR and then still it's a maybe. Decent jobs are hard to come by these days in areas outside of mine, but I would never quit my job until I had a huge no doubt about anything BR even where I live. If you have a steady job then you are guaranteed money EVERY month, yes you are making more playing poker, but haven't had the down month or months some of the guys on here talk about. The job income cushions those blows a lot I'm sure.
RC3 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 08:37 PM   #4220
llllllll
Guest
 
Posts: n/a
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

So many people brainwashed by the TV. Quitting a job to try and copy the people you see on HSP, PAD etc is ******ed. Use the job for a safety net, play more in your spare time. Best of both worlds, and job as insurance incase you hit some awful downswing.
  Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 08:58 PM   #4221
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
Your girlfriend can't add you as a dependent on her insurance since you aren't married, so that's not going to do anything....and what if you break up? I sell insurance, and would strongly suggest you make sure the health insurance issue is taken care of before you make this decision. COBRA is going to cost you $400+ per month and if you live in NY, health insurance on the individual market there is insanely expensive ($1k+ per month since everyone pays the same price regardless of age or health).
Depends on the employer, some have "domestic partnership" benefits covering two non-married people who live together.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 09:22 PM   #4222
pilamsolo
The Situation
 
pilamsolo's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: Yay Area
Posts: 274
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Re: ScooTizzle if you don't mind me asking, where do you live currently/what's your monthly nut? Any chance that UPS would transfer you to a city with a bigger poker economy than where you live currently?

As someone who has lived off of strictly poker income at certain times in his life, my advice would be to not give up your insurance and pay check unless you would literally bet your life that poker is the path for you. I tried the pro thing back in the internet days and the money was better than I could make elsewhere at the time, but I was mainly grinding 1/2 - 3/5 NL games and maintaining a bankroll eventually took a lot of the joy out of the game for me. I had other friends in similar situations that were solid winners at low stakes but like me they eventually got bored feeling like they weren't growing their game, so they ended up taking shots at higher stakes without being rolled properly and going broke. Only one of them actually made it (he runs goot though)

One last thing to consider: I'm not sure who said this (I think Matt Flynn maybe, or El Diablo), but I've come to really appreciate the wisdom in the phrase: poker is a terrible job, but a perfect hobby. When you have to play, and you have to grind low stakes, most people have more losing sessions than when they just feel like playing some cards. It's less challenging, there's less variety, and they can't do what most rec players can, which is take a break, do something else for a while, and then come back to poker with a replenished bankroll and get excited about it all over again. In the poker game of life, you're deep stacked right now and just saw the flop, you don't need to commit to the hand just yet. You've got a lot of life to live, and a lot of poker left to play. FWIW, my advice is to not rush it.
pilamsolo is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 09:34 PM   #4223
Richard Parker
banned
 
Richard Parker's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Right Side of Variance
Posts: 13,951
I think I may have only met one or two professional players that aren't miserable, and these guys are all at least 30 and are pretty grounded with their emotions.
Richard Parker is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 09:44 PM   #4224
wj94
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Location: Las Vegas
Posts: 7,719
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Rumor View Post
Depends on the employer, some have "domestic partnership" benefits covering two non-married people who live together.
This is not common and will be even less common in the future. Most large employers are auditing their employees just to verify they actually have a spouse and that their kids are who they say they are. Lots of people are trying to add relatives to their group health insurance and hoping nobody notices. My parents had to submit tax returns and birth certificates to verify they were actually married and that my brother (who's on the plan with them) was one of their kids.

See this article - http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013...alth-insurance
wj94 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 02-26-2013, 10:10 PM   #4225
The Rumor
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
The Rumor's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2011
Location: Wherever my loanshark isn't
Posts: 9,559
re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post
This is not common and will be even less common in the future. Most large employers are auditing their employees just to verify they actually have a spouse and that their kids are who they say they are. Lots of people are trying to add relatives to their group health insurance and hoping nobody notices. My parents had to submit tax returns and birth certificates to verify they were actually married and that my brother (who's on the plan with them) was one of their kids.

See this article - http://articles.marketwatch.com/2013...alth-insurance
I know this, too.
The Rumor is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:36 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright © 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive