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Old 02-18-2013, 01:30 AM   #4076
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

NickTheNit,

If over 108hrs of play you haven't picked up on tipping norms, look up the tipping containment thread in the brick and morder forum. Also, I suggest researching sample size as well, 108hrs+ is nothing. There are winning players on here that have gone on a ~300hr downswing and still cranked out 70 g's profit after the year was over. Good luck out there.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:30 AM   #4077
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Just bring what you're comfortable losing.
That doesn't help much.... I have seen people post downswings of 10-12k over the course of 3 months, but how bad can a swing be in only 5 days? I am a competent player so I think your response is a little brash maybe because the question led you to believe so.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:41 AM   #4078
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Question for all those bankroll experts....

Does having 5k to 20k credit card limits count as life roll money?

People who want to devote all their cold hard cash to poker bankroll should make sure to build a good credit profile for life emergencies if they need all cash devoted to the roll.

Also, I know a sports gambling degen, through paying his best friend via paypal for services via credit card, he turned all his credit card limits into straight cash.

You can max ccs out paying for services, you just do it via paypal then have your degen friend give you the funds once they hit his bank account.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:47 AM   #4079
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by NickTheNit View Post
Couple questions for live players At the end of 2012 I was winning quite often at my 1-2 100bbcap game that I bought the app pokerjournal to start 2013, since then I have played 58 hours over 9 sessions for an hourly rate of 31.15$ net, say I had won about 600$ over 50 hours in 2012, is it possible to develop a confidence interval or with what certainty can I assume I am a winning player?
No. 58 hours isn't enough to determine with any confidence you are a winning player. Imo, the absolute minimum time required to say, "yes I'm a winning player" is about 500 hours...

The test of whether you are a winning player isn't when you are a winning... Any rec-fish or donk can win.

No.

The test of whether or not you are a winning player is how you handle your downswing.

How does your game/play change when you've had 3 consecutive sessions of grinding for 8 hrs and working your $200 buy-in up to $900+ and then you flop trip Aces on a rainbow dry board against the biggest drooler on the table that has you covered. You get all the money in on the turn and the drooler hits his gut shot on the river and you lose everything.

And so, in 3 sessions you undergo a $3.5k negative swing losing two buy-ins per session PLUS the $900+ stack you built up.

It is how you play the 4th session that will determine if you are a winning player. Will you sit down at the table and immediately launch into your bad beat stories? Will you start over raising with AA because you don't want to get cracked anymore? Will you start seeing Monsters Under the Bed and stop value betting? Will you start tilting and overshoving weak draws feeling that since everyone else hits bs against you its your turn to get lucky????

Imo, you can't know for certain if you are a bonafide winning player until you face down a horrendous downswing. And it is coming, it will happen, it is inevitable.

Thus, you need more data. Within 500 hrs you will have that downswing and it is how you handle that downswing and your resulting game after the runbad that will determine your true winrate and if you are a winning player...
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:48 AM   #4080
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Lot grinder that is some bad degen logic. No form of debt is part of your life roll or bankroll. Your roll is your money which you can access without paying interest or without having to pay someone else back.

That entire post is ahow to guide for how to destroy your credit and your life roll so you end up permanently busto. Thats well beyond just losing your poker roll. Don't even think about it
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:52 AM   #4081
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LotGrinder View Post
Question for all those bankroll experts....

Does having 5k to 20k credit card limits count as life roll money?

People who want to devote all their cold hard cash to poker bankroll should make sure to build a good credit profile for life emergencies if they need all cash devoted to the roll.

Also, I know a sports gambling degen, through paying his best friend via paypal for services via credit card, he turned all his credit card limits into straight cash.

You can max ccs out paying for services, you just do it via paypal then have your degen friend give you the funds once they hit his bank account.
using a degen friend to launder your money is a great way to lose said money when your degen friend gambles it away...

"Dude, I know you sent me that $4k via paypal, and I was at the bank getting your money and I was at the window of a cashier named Candy. She was wearing a horse pendant and there is a horse racing today name Cashier Candy. So, its a lock right. So, I took the $4k and put it all on Cashier Candy and the horse was going to win but then the Jockey fell off right at the final turn..."

yeah, good luck with that...
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:59 AM   #4082
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That doesn't help much.... I have seen people post downswings of 10-12k over the course of 3 months, but how bad can a swing be in only 5 days? I am a competent player so I think your response is a little brash maybe because the question led you to believe so.
I wasn't trying to be brash. I apologize if it sounded that way. Was just saying if this is a "fun" trip, then don't bring an amount that will hurt when you go back home.

Bringing 10k is a safe amount, but if you'll regret losing more then 5k, then don't bring more than that.

If you're asking the biggest swing I've experienced over 50 hours, I'd say probably 8k or so.
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:14 AM   #4083
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by cbayly12 View Post
I wasn't trying to be brash. I apologize if it sounded that way. Was just saying if this is a "fun" trip, then don't bring an amount that will hurt when you go back home.

Bringing 10k is a safe amount, but if you'll regret losing more then 5k, then don't bring more than that.

If you're asking the biggest swing I've experienced over 50 hours, I'd say probably 8k or so.
Wow, 8k in 50 hours seems like a ton. But yes, that is more what I was asking. I usually go with about 3k but I haven't ever went bust in any 5 day trips so I must have just been lucky. But I was never sure if 3k is too short... 10k seems like too much because that is a career roll based on the 20 BI rule. Thanks for your input.
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:24 AM   #4084
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Hey,

This is a bankroll thread.

Just telling you how my two degen sports betting friends essentially ruined their life for a brief minute.

Both got bks and a divorce.

Just saying, if some of these guys are desperate to shot take and have good credit...

Max those credit cards, put eminem's "lose yourself" on and go for it if you want it that bad and are degen enough.

Last edited by LotGrinder; 02-18-2013 at 02:29 AM.
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:26 AM   #4085
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post

No.

Imo, you can't know for certain if you are a bonafide winning player until you face down a horrendous downswing. And it is coming, it will happen, it is inevitable.

Thus, you need more data. Within 500 hrs you will have that downswing and it is how you handle that downswing and your resulting game after the runbad that will determine your true winrate and if you are a winning player...
500hrs sounds reasonable, I just thought theyre could be a shortcut, as for the downswings it sounds horrible but I am really rational towards feeling (some people think im arrogant or just dont give a **** about them, but thats just how my personality is) I think that will help me during my downswing...
ty dgiharris for your extensive answer and know that I've been reading your posts a lot and value your comments/threads as much
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:31 AM   #4086
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Originally Posted by NickTheNit View Post
500hrs sounds reasonable, I just thought theyre could be a shortcut, as for the downswings it sounds horrible but I am really rational towards feeling (some people think im arrogant or just dont give a **** about them, but thats just how my personality is) I think that will help me during my downswing...
ty dgiharris for your extensive answer and know that I've been reading your posts a lot and value your comments/threads as much
Reading dgi threads and posts are massive +ev
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:31 AM   #4087
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Stop using wr for ego. Its main purpose is to come up with some hypothetical number, so you can figure how many hours each month you need to hit a certain quota.

Building the bankroll should be your only focus. After awhile you just know your a winning player.
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:35 AM   #4088
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Quote:
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Wow, 8k in 50 hours seems like a ton. But yes, that is more what I was asking. I usually go with about 3k but I haven't ever went bust in any 5 day trips so I must have just been lucky. But I was never sure if 3k is too short... 10k seems like too much because that is a career roll based on the 20 BI rule. Thanks for your input.
Well again, I play in uncapped games. The $2-5 I play is more like a $5-10.
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Old 02-18-2013, 07:04 AM   #4089
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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lol at my sample size, but i'm running at 51/hr over my last 300 hours at 2/5.

Got a question for the higher-rolled players. I'm sitting on a 16k bankroll at the moment. What would be a sufficient amount to take shots at 5/10? The games in my area play pretty deep. The 2/5 game I regularly play is a 20-200bb buyin, while the 5/10 games have a 500bb max. The dilemma I've been facing is that there are times when the 5/10 looks softer than the 2/5. What kind of BR should I be looking at to take shots when this circumstance arises?
I'm in your situation as well. Usually the 5/10 game starts a little bit later than the 2/5 game. All the players were asked to move to the higher games. To my surprise very often the biggest fish / whales are moving and the tight regs with small bankrolls (like me) are left at the 2/5 table.

The games are very soft and my skill advantage is high. The problem is my small bankroll (~10k). How would you approach those situations as a recreational player with a good job and no dependancies on my poker moneys?
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Old 02-18-2013, 07:30 AM   #4090
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Allow me to post a "reality check" graph in the happy thread. All at 1/2.



Total Hours 356.87
Total Winnings $2,809.00
Winrate $7.87
Standard Dev $162.63

whatever, winning is winning, even when it's not for 250 hours
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Old 02-18-2013, 12:22 PM   #4091
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by dgiharris View Post
using a degen friend to launder your money is a great way to lose said money when your degen friend gambles it away...

"Dude, I know you sent me that $4k via paypal, and I was at the bank getting your money and I was at the window of a cashier named Candy. She was wearing a horse pendant and there is a horse racing today name Cashier Candy. So, its a lock right. So, I took the $4k and put it all on Cashier Candy and the horse was going to win but then the Jockey fell off right at the final turn..."

yeah, good luck with that...
this is known as a mistake you only make once
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Old 02-18-2013, 12:26 PM   #4092
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
Stop using wr for ego. Its main purpose is to come up with some hypothetical number, so you can figure how many hours each month you need to hit a certain quota.

Building the bankroll should be your only focus. After awhile you just know your a winning player.
Cali,

Too often you post without any filter but every once in a while you hit the nail on the head. This post is one of those times. Perfectly said.

sao
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:05 PM   #4093
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

winrate does matter in the "is this worth my time" sense
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:08 PM   #4094
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Isn't 16k kinda small BR for 2/5? Not trolling you just curious because I have similar roll was going to give a 6k shot at it and drop to 1/2 if I hit 10k.
16k is fiiiine. Taking a 2 buy in shot at 5/10 is fine too, just have to be willing to move back down if it doesn't go well.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:09 PM   #4095
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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winrate does matter in the "is this worth my time" sense
also in a 'am i playing well' sense.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:15 PM   #4096
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It's a point system as well.

I scored 8bb/hr last month, and I am going to beat that next month.
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Old 02-18-2013, 01:16 PM   #4097
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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also in a 'am i playing well' sense.
well yeah over an extended period of time

hard to tell with my graph and my 7.5k fiscal cliff I went over
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:14 PM   #4098
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Lotgrinder: i think it all goes back to the idea " never loan money or borrow money for gambling" and yes poker is gambling
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Old 02-18-2013, 02:49 PM   #4099
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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winrate does matter in the "is this worth my time" sense
If you are (a) thinking about going pro and (b) have an alternative (i.e., a job) that you are weighing the opportunity cost of. For 99% of posters here, I don't think that is the case. But, yes, it does serve that purpose.

My other answer is "find me another hobby where I typically leave with more money than I start with and I will consider doing something else with my free time."

Quote:
Originally Posted by ikestoys View Post
also in a 'am i playing well' sense.
I am not as on board with this for two reasons.

1. "Playing well" is a short term concept. We play well some (most?) days, we play poorly other days. Win rate is a long term measure.

2. Playing well is qualitative; win rate is quantitative. How many bb/hr indicates "playing well"?

Quote:
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It's a point system as well.

I scored 8bb/hr last month, and I am going to beat that next month.
WARNING! WARNING! WARNING! Short term application of long term measure! (P.S. Strong month. May the sun shine upon you even more brightly this month. And may you not get sucked out on even one more time than last month and therefore "conclude" that you played less well.)

I think a huge issue that does not get anywhere near enough attention here is that winrate is very situation dependent. The same player will often have a different winrate in room X and room Y, in the morning and at night, during the week and on the weekend, even if that player somehow magically always plays the same. Which is all the more reason why universal guidelines about winrate are problematic.

Every time someone comes in here and asks if XX/hr

is a good win rate
means that they are a winning player
is sustainable
etc.

s/he should have to fill out a form that asks where they played, what they played, when they played, how they ran against AIEV (aka the mpethy formula), and who they played against.

And THEN we can tell him/her that they haven't played enough hours for their winrate to be valid.

P.S. I am running at $119/hr in my first four sessions of $2/$5. Is that sustainable?
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Old 02-18-2013, 03:21 PM   #4100
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Heh, wasn't expecting someone to be all serious about it.

Yes, it could simply be variance, but my point system was nothing more than exactly what it is, to track for the sake of tracking. In fact, the point of it is that it has no value.
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