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Old 01-25-2013, 02:15 AM   #3726
LolPony
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodgethat View Post
Boring question but i was wondering how many losing months you regs have had in 2012?

say guys that play 120+ hrs avg month

Im starting to put more hours in live games and trying to read as much as possible before i dive in again

Thanks
I had one losing month but that's because I went on a 2k+ downswing and took the rest of the month off. I probably don't average 120/hr month though.
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Old 01-25-2013, 02:19 AM   #3727
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rodgethat View Post
Boring question but i was wondering how many losing months you regs have had in 2012?

say guys that play 120+ hrs avg month

Im starting to put more hours in live games and trying to read as much as possible before i dive in again

Thanks
0

I had a brutal 8k downswing in 2/5 last year and still managed to have a winning month. Actually, I've never had a losing month.
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Old 01-25-2013, 02:36 AM   #3728
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Not even close. Go back in the thread, there was an estimator put out you can plug into excel to estimate your confidence. At normal SD 700 hours is enough to give you a rough idea of where you lie on the losing, breakeven, winning, crushing scale, but that's it. If your win rate is 12-14bb/hr, that's a crushing rate, it's about 98% that you are at least a solid winner (5-6bb/hr minimum) if you maintain that for 700 hours. The chance that you are doing at least 10bb/hr (a reasonable crush threshold) is more like 85%. The chance that you are doing at least 12bb/hr (your +/- 1bb/hr) is more like 60%.

Your 95% confidence interval is something like +/- 6 bb/hr at 700 hours.

And that all assumes a normal distribution and no prior information which are both suspect/bad assumptions.

For one thing, any winrate above 10bb/hr is pretty unlikely, it requires both excellent play *and* good game selection. So my prior is that any rate above 10bb/hr involves a much greater likelihood of run good than of run bad.
I'm curious how much this estimator was based on online vs live. I would imagine playing live would result in higher confidence because we don't have as large of downswings due to the vast disparity in talent. I want to go back and see it, but there's a ton of posts in here that I would have to wade through. Or is this a common equation in statistics that can be found online and is completely independent of poker?

I'll concede that I'm probably wrong in guessing that one has a 1bb margin of error at 700 hours, but in your opinion (and others), how many hours would it take to get a margin of error that low? Is it even possible? What would an average standard deviation look like? After just over 1500 logged hours, my SD is at about 80bb/hr and a 13bb/hr winrate. How does my SD relate to most other 10+bb/hr winners?
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Old 01-25-2013, 02:47 AM   #3729
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I hit some rough patches late last year, but there was a period of roughly 600 hours between March and August that was ~10bb, and my standard deviation was 51bb/hr, session was little over twice of that at 107bb/hr.

Given as consistent as my result was for what seems like an eternity live, there was no consistency when looking at the overall picture.

Because poker is a zero sum game, and I do not reside in one of the poker paradises, my competition is always improving by weeding out the weak and forcing the remaining to adapt.

So ya...there is no consistency in poker. We are humans after all.
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Old 01-25-2013, 03:30 AM   #3730
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Unless you're playing rake free poker, it's not zero-sum.
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Old 01-25-2013, 04:02 AM   #3731
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by GatorXP View Post
Yep, LOL at 20k hands being a significant sample size.
Well that's the hard thing to figure out about live poker. What exactly is an accurate sample size. The thing with 700 hours (21K) hands is that is it is much more accurate than 21k hands of online poker since winrates are bigger, but its not accurate enough to make any meaningful conclusions.
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Old 01-25-2013, 10:42 AM   #3732
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Unless you're playing rake free poker, it's not zero-sum.
Idea is the same. Many losers, few winners.
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:42 PM   #3733
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Zero sum does not mean anything about proportion of losers to winners... just simply means what it sounds like - the net of the competitors is the same before and after play.

Losses + Winnings = 0

Poker is not zero sum by definition because of rake, but some of the general strategies and concepts applied to zero sum games do fit with poker, hence the misuse of the term.
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:43 PM   #3734
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

*play money poker is zero sum
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Old 01-25-2013, 12:56 PM   #3735
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Never did say that zero sum correlates to proportion of winners and losers.

However, if you actually care about the point I was making, you would see that it was about the result of such structure.
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Old 01-25-2013, 03:04 PM   #3736
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Oh, I agree with your comments about the evolution of skill in the game and having to always adapt. I have hope we are actually at a peak in "player pool skill" right now though. Boom is over, online is dead in US, so you have the situation right now where there are fewer beginners entering the game (economic reasons, post-online and TV boom, etc) and an abundance of skill players still involved (all left from the boom - live and online). So it is like the old rabit-coyote ecosystem... boom of rabits leads to boom of coyotes, then a depletion of rabits, now starving coyotes... Only in poker the sharks are cannibalistic So I expect most to quit or decide the diminishing returns / margins are too small to be worth it. The beginner influx (and degen population) should stabilize, and poker will be greener in future years (although with a relatively smaller player population).

I do not expect the player pool skill to evolve to a point where the game is unbeatable versus the rake... not live. It will just find a balance of "profit players" that is appropriate to the beginner in-flow/degen "forever fish". Some will progress from beginner to profit player, but again, in stable system that will just be near the attrition rate of former profit players.

The main thing for people to realize is how this economy works. You have to make poker entertaining for the donators... or more appropriately, the more entertaining you make it, the more fish there will be. Of course, don't tap the fish tank!
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Old 01-25-2013, 03:14 PM   #3737
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Very nice post, bip. Good understanding of supply and demand.
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Old 01-25-2013, 04:04 PM   #3738
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Lol - thanks. Those 101 Econ classes in college were useful after all!
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Old 01-25-2013, 05:05 PM   #3739
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*play money poker is zero sum
They rake play money now lol. Unless you mean everyone gets back exactly what they put in meaning nothing.
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Old 01-25-2013, 05:21 PM   #3740
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Omaha HU play money rake is redic.
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Old 01-25-2013, 05:24 PM   #3741
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Play money rake in general is ridiculous. It is uncapped isn't it? Lol
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Old 01-25-2013, 07:47 PM   #3742
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1/3 30-40k
2/5 50-70k
5/10 80-120k

This is assuming you are a very good player and putting in decentish hours (1300-1500). Very few pros put in 2000 hours a year. A lot of time is wasted commuting, game selecting, studying or whatever. In addition to that most pros choose poker due to freedom and put in less hours due to that. This is all a general guideline though.
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Old 01-25-2013, 07:57 PM   #3743
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Originally Posted by D0UGHBOY View Post
1/3 30-40k
2/5 50-70k
5/10 80-120k
Your stats are for the top 1% in the country.

Not even talking about room dependent. If we are cut that in half.

1/3 15k-25k
2/5 25-35k
5/10 no comment.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:01 PM   #3744
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My projections were based upon
1/3 30k 1500 * 20
2/5 50k 1500 * 33
5/10 80k 1500 * 53

You need to be a really good player to achieve these, but I don't think I'm making any outlandish statements.

Edit - yah you can say most grinders don't put in 1500 hours, but once again I'm not really talking crazy
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:07 PM   #3745
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

30hr at 1/3 if youre good
40 to 50 an hr at 2/5 if youre good

Just multiply by how many hours you are going to play and go from there
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:09 PM   #3746
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30hr at 1/3 if youre good
40 to 50 an hr at 2/5 if youre good

Just multiply by how many hours you are going to play and go from there
Yeah that's pretty much what I was thinking. I just extrapolated it by assuming 1500 hours a year.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:10 PM   #3747
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
Your stats are for the top 1% in the country.

Not even talking about room dependent. If we are cut that in half.

1/3 15k-25k
2/5 25-35k
5/10 no comment.
That seems pretty low. I've made more than $15k in just the past 9-10 weeks playing 100% 1/2. $35-40k should be easily obtainable for a good 1/2 player. At 2000 hours that's only $17-20/hr.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:10 PM   #3748
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Let's all crush this weekend.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:32 PM   #3749
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Everyone comes in here and spews off the top winrates. Most if not all the players here are not good. So why spew garbage that makes no sense not to.

Most here are rec players. "I made 12k in 2 months, 40k is possible at 1/2". Sounds delusional if you ask me.
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Old 01-25-2013, 08:34 PM   #3750
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Whenever someone asks a question like that interpret it as what should I strive to achieve for not what could a brain dead player make.
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