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Old 11-30-2010, 11:33 AM   #351
Waylander11
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I've been playing about 175 hours a month for 6 months now at mostly 2-5nl and i've noticed that my winrate still jumps or falls $5-10 every month. At 500 hours it was $25 an hour higher than it is now that i have played 800 hours. I ran the worst i have ever run over the past 300 hours and expect it to climb back up over the next couple months. My point is that i don't expect the fluctuations in winrate to level out till about 2k hours and i think that is a reasonable amount of time before a true winrate can be predicted.

On a different note, im curious to find out the average number of times people rebuy when they play. It is very rare for me to only be in a game for 100bb but i auto rebuy when i fall below the max buy in. Im usually in the game for at least 150 bbs at a 100bb cap game
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Old 12-08-2010, 12:01 AM   #352
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BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS

What do you think the smallest bankroll you should allow yourself for live 2/5 No-Limit play, assuming you play for a living, and abide by the 5% buy-in rule per session? I think $25,000 minimum.
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Old 12-08-2010, 12:42 AM   #353
oscar1020
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Re: BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS

50 bi for live poker? nah man you dont need 50 bi for 2/5 live. 10k is plenty imo assuming your a good player
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Old 12-08-2010, 01:40 AM   #354
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Re: BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS

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What do you think the smallest bankroll you should allow yourself for live 2/5 No-Limit play, assuming you play for a living, and abide by the 5% buy-in rule per session? I think $25,000 minimum.
i was going to agree, but after some reflection i have decided it should definitely be at least tree fiddy
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Old 12-08-2010, 03:28 PM   #355
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Re: BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS

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What do you think the smallest bankroll you should allow yourself for live 2/5 No-Limit play, assuming you play for a living, and abide by the 5% buy-in rule per session? I think $25,000 minimum.
Not including living expenses, and assuming you're playing a game with a $500 capped buy-in, I'd be comfortable with $15,000. Obviously, more is better, but I think $15,000 is sufficient.

If the game is uncapped or has a higher buyin cap, then that amount would be higher.
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Old 12-08-2010, 03:50 PM   #356
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Re: BANKROLL REQUIREMENTS

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, assuming you play for a living, I think $25,000 minimum.
Pretty much, but I would want more. 6 months worth of living expenses (maybe even a year) plus a broll. If you were just playing casual though way less than that number would be fine.
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Old 12-13-2010, 08:38 PM   #357
Ca$chten
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a solid winrate for 1/2 is....?

wtsup...

my quetions, is basicly simple: I had a descussion with a friend about winrates, regarding 1/2 live... we estimated a time of 10-15h a week.

well, you guys, Id like you to help me out here...

what acctually is a modern winrate @ 1/2 live???

thanks C
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Old 12-13-2010, 08:46 PM   #358
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Re: a solid winrate for 1/2 is....?

Conventional wisdom is that decent players will be in the $8-12 range, while better players can get as high as $20ish/hr. I've run @ $23/hr in the past, though that was over a 180hr sample and included some deep stacked $1/3 with avg stacks around $600. Anything over $20 is tough to sustain with the rake and nitty play that you'll periodically run into. Soft home games/underground games can make $20+/hr possible though.

also, there are probably 20+ threads on this topic so feel free to search..
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Old 12-13-2010, 10:08 PM   #359
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Re: a solid winrate for 1/2 is....?

If you bounce around this site long enough, you will find that 2p2 apparently has several hundred players who average $25 hourly @ 1/2 NL Live, and each of those people knows someone else who averages $33 hourly.

Nobody on the internet has ever been a losing playing at 1/2 NL live, so you and your friend are essentially freerolling by making this post.
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Old 12-13-2010, 10:10 PM   #360
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Re: a solid winrate for 1/2 is....?

Seriously though, I'd say generally $20 would be excellent and $12-$15 would be solid. I'd imagine a very small percentage of people, the ones who fit into the top caliber of player category, with a handful of juicy games at their disposal that aren't overraked, can bang out $24-$25 hourly.
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Old 12-16-2010, 01:31 AM   #361
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Hi guys, just got done reading all 360 posts over the course of a few days. I've done this because I'm really giving thought to playing a lot more live come 2011. Not only that but just this past summer a new casino opened up near me, literally 10 minutes away, and I'm in the parking lot. The games have seemed flamboyant (bad description?) since I've started checking in for a casual live session a handful of times a month on average. I've considered myself an online player for quite sometime now, but I'm not sure if that will be the case overall in 2011 for me. With the declining win rates online across the board, declining processors, and tougher legal restrictions starting to arise, I don't see why it would be a bad thought to start playing more live in the coming months. Comparatively, playing live to me, is still like playing online pre UIGEA (pre 2006). There's no question about it. It seems like at least once every 5 sessions of playing, I hear at least one person talk at the table about how they believe online is rigged still and there's no chance they're going to be depositing anytime soon (they often end up being some of the worst players too coincidentally). But it's these types of players that we need to further educate to play more online once again, although it will take some convincing, to expand their horizons to online, just as much as I'd advocate some of my online friends to play more live because of how easy/frugal it is at times.

I'm not sure where my opening paragraph is going lol, but I meant to suggest that my plan is to play live a minimum of 200 hours in January and approach 300 if I have to in order to reach some monetary goals I have. I know it sounds crazy but I do have a lot of time on my hands. I plan to play 1/2 NL provided I can play/run good over said time period to reach my goal, however, I still have to set aside sometime next month to maintain my Supernova status.

Over the 21 times I've gone since the poker tables became legal in PA, I've played 107 hours averaging $16/hr thus far. This includes the 60 hours I went in September in which I netted -$126 overall. I realize now I played bad at times and ran bad at times as well, a few times in which I could've folded to a few open river shoves after being the aggressor up until the turn/rivers (now an instant live red flag to me). However, I think I can improve on this, and will try my best to prove it to myself next month, so we'll see. I was originally a bit shocked to see such low estimates, but I guess over the long run of things, $15-$25/hr at 1/2 and $35-$50/hr at 2/5 seem fairly reasonable over a large sample that includes running bad as well.

I do have to agree with a couple posters who previously said that depending on where you're playing that rates can tend to vary to some degree. For instance the place I've been going to, I haven't met a player yet that I could picture beating anything higher than $25 NL online, and this is 1/2 live we're talking about. Perhaps it's because of the casino's cardroom newness is a reason play seems absurd, but I would also argue that players can be just as bad in Atlantic city at the same stakes.

Oh well, that's enough for now, I usually post in the microbrew thread, but I'd be happy to add to this discussion over the coming weeks/months down the road. Perhaps give a weekly update on my January live poker binge that I plan on driving through 2 feet of snow to make it happen. Cheers everyone!
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Old 12-17-2010, 08:14 PM   #362
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So is $20/hr good for live 1/2?

I've heard from a few sources that $20/hr for 200 full ring (live) is the standard for someone playing a good TAG game. Confirm or deny?

Also, how big of a sample do you guys think, in terms of hours, is necessary before a players win rate is a good indicator of his win rate in the long run?
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Old 12-17-2010, 08:25 PM   #363
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Re: So is $20/hr good for live 1/2?

$20/hr is probably the higher limit of what you can sustain long term in 1/2. Probably need 2000 hrs, i think.
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Old 12-17-2010, 10:34 PM   #364
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

just deposited $100 online, and **** i run sooooo bad.

sit at 25nl heads up, i v bet 2 pair the whole way and shove river, he calls has AK.

-25

2-4 fixed 6 max, flop 2 over + NFD, $35 pot gone.
flop diamond flush+ gutshot NFD, cap flop, i checkraise Ace turn, river diamond. ****

-50

50nl 6max, build up to 32, get KK utg, raise, 3 bet, i 4 bet, he shoves, i have to call. he FLIPS AA.


im going to try to play live more, casinos 2 hours away i need to get over there.
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Old 12-18-2010, 12:03 AM   #365
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Re: So is $20/hr good for live 1/2?

Quote:
Originally Posted by yodachoda View Post
I've heard from a few sources that $20/hr for 200 full ring (live) is the standard for someone playing a good TAG game. Confirm or deny?

Also, how big of a sample do you guys think, in terms of hours, is necessary before a players win rate is a good indicator of his win rate in the long run?
i track my results on a spreadsheet. $21/hour. this is over a few year sample playing a few hours a week on average. most of the time i play a very tight nitty game. this is generally optimal in vegas 1/2 room. i mostly play in a rich oil city in canada where the play is a bit better. able to make a few more moves and more 3 betting.
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Old 12-18-2010, 02:57 AM   #366
SamueMX
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

I was so lazy on december. I've already finished my month and just played 34 hours and had a winrate of $108/h at 5/10.

Std.

Happy Holidays everybody!
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Old 12-20-2010, 01:58 PM   #367
Jubei Kibagami
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Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

I was wondering what you guys think a top grinder makes per/hr playing 2/5NL Live. I read that 10/20 NL at the commerce the best players average 180-200 per hour. If thats transferable too 2-5NL were looking at $40-50/ hour over the long term, while not taking into account for a larger field of weak and rec players. Any experiences from people with large sample sizes.
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Old 12-20-2010, 02:33 PM   #368
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

here we go again
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Old 12-20-2010, 03:34 PM   #369
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

I don't know, but you'll probably have to come up w/ about 10k a year just to beat the rake if you play full time.
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Old 12-20-2010, 03:41 PM   #370
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

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I don't know, but you'll probably have to come up w/ about 10k a year just to beat the rake if you play full time.
I don't understand what value you're trying to add with your post. I'm sure OP understands that the game is raked (unless it's the rare unraked self-dealt home game)

Rake obviously is factored into winrate. Nobody says "Well, I made $25/hr without rake, but only $22/hr with rake." I'm not even sure how you'd come up with an unraked winrate.

Unless there's some other point/level you're trying to make that I'm missing...

To OP: $35-50/hr is considered at the high end for very good pros at $2/5. Most make considerably less.
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Old 12-20-2010, 04:41 PM   #371
Jubei Kibagami
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

At my sino, there is a 6 dollar session fee every 30 mins, no rake. I thought it was a legitimate question. Why am I wrong?
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Old 12-20-2010, 04:54 PM   #372
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

The reason I am asking is a friend of mine plays 2-5NL strictly at the casino, taking a few shots at 5-10 only when he's really feeling it, but 95% he plays 2-5nl. He quit his job about 6 months ago and has been playing 3 days a week (usually thursday, friday and sunday) for sessions between 6-10 hours. He has built a roll up too $42,000 in 6 months. Supposing we clock him at 8 hours a session @ 3 days a week, for 6 months, we are looking at 576 hours, about $73 per hour. He's had downswings at 5-10, 6k over a weekend, he doesn't tilt, just takes a week off if he has a terrible run of cards and rebuilds, crushing 2-5NL. Is this simply an epic run, or is this sustainable over the LT. I know 6 months is not that long but any insight would be nice. He is a thinking player and he seems too be very consistent, with minimal tilt.

Thoughts?

Last edited by Jubei Kibagami; 12-20-2010 at 05:01 PM.
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Old 12-20-2010, 05:03 PM   #373
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

Not sustainable. Not close. That's a heater and probably includes a lot of soft tables.

Realistic sustainable long term win rate for that level is gonna run $20-35/hr for a very good player.

Its not unusual for a run like that and of course the standard story is that guys like this either move up and run bad or stay on level but spend all their money. Mostly you see people struggle down the road.

Correct approach is to budget your nut at $20/hr and bank you excess. If you need more income, play more hours. This is how you last long term. Its not called a grind because its a lark.
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Old 12-20-2010, 05:44 PM   #374
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

.

Last edited by Rambler1; 12-20-2010 at 05:48 PM. Reason: double post
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Old 12-20-2010, 05:46 PM   #375
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Re: Realistic $/hr @ 2/5 NL Live

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jubei Kibagami View Post
At my sino, there is a 6 dollar session fee every 30 mins, no rake. I thought it was a legitimate question. Why am I wrong?
When did you ask about rake?



Am I being leveled?
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