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Old 01-24-2013, 04:23 PM   #3701
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That should be very profitable for you since you get the upside with no risk.
I won't have to ship anything either. Which is the main hassle of selling stuff on eBay.
Hopefully it pans out well. Will be a real sick deal of it does.
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:24 PM   #3702
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I won't have to ship anything either. Which is the main hassle of selling stuff on eBay.
Hopefully it pans out well. Will be a real sick deal of it does.
Wow that's even better than I imagined.
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:34 PM   #3703
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So last year I started playing 1/2 much more seriously (as there is a casino 2 miles from my house.)
I've put in 741 hours of 1/2.
My win rate doesn't matter.
How can I tell how likely my win rate is to be close to accurate? How can I estimate what my average win rate is likely to be?
I'm on my phone so searching is hard. Is there a thread that talks about this already?
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:38 PM   #3704
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

The thing about winrates is they take so long to accurate. By the time they are accurate the games have changed and hopefully you have gotten better as well. With all that being said after 500 hours you have a pretty good idea if you are indeed a winner in the game and the general idea of what your winrate is. Basically whatever your winrate is now is acciurate enough. You don't really need to know what it is down to the cent.
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:39 PM   #3705
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

You can probably just search thru this thread for some decent examples.

741 hours at live 1/2 is a decent sample size, imo. You should clearly be able to tell whether you are a winner vs breakeven vs losing player. As to exactly what your winrate is probably converging to, good luck with that.
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Old 01-24-2013, 04:47 PM   #3706
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

714 hours is a pretty good sample size. The higher your winrate, the likelier you are actually a true winner in the game. But like gg said, you should know if you are a winner, breakeven, or losing player at this point.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:35 PM   #3707
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714 hours is a pretty good sample size. The higher your winrate, the likelier you are actually a true winner in the game. But like gg said, you should know if you are a winner, breakeven, or losing player at this point.
Oh I know if I'm a winning, losing, or break even player.
I simply took out my win rate because it doesn't actually matter.
I just wondered if there was a thread detailing confidence intervals for offering numbers of hours or anything like that.
After 500 hours, if your win rate is 2BB, there is a 95% chance your true win rate is 2BB+/-3BB. Stuff like that.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:39 PM   #3708
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Your variance is going to change depending on your play style.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:40 PM   #3709
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Given that there are so many human factors unrelated to the math itself, such calculation would be rather unreliable.

Why is it important to figure out WR anyway?
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:45 PM   #3710
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Given that there are so many human factors unrelated to the math itself, such calculation would be rather unreliable.

Why is it important to figure out WR anyway?
I'm concerned as to why you think winrate is not important?

(over a sample size of 1k+ hours)
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:48 PM   #3711
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It is important, but without clear intent or purpose, such number has no meaning.

Do you intend to study harder if your win rate is 2bb rather than 6bb, or do you just stop trying to improve your game if you hit 8bb/hr?

Do you move up stake if you hit 8bb in your level?

I mean, what real purpose is there to determine confidence level of your WR?
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:49 PM   #3712
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by RobFarha View Post
I'm concerned as to why you think winrate is not important?

(over a sample size of 1k+ hours)
Winrate really isn't that important. Your game is always changing. Over 1k hours your game should have evolved. You are never really going to know your true winrate. You just have a good idea of how you are doing in the game.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:51 PM   #3713
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I would imagine a winrate around 700 hours would be accurate to within +/- 1bb

It can be important when used with standard deviation. One can project long-term winnings (or loses) with relative accuracy.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:55 PM   #3714
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

lol 700 hours is like 15,000 to 22,000 hands, thats enough to determine if you are a winner or a loser but not to even remotely know what your theoretical expected value is in the game.
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Old 01-24-2013, 05:55 PM   #3715
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I would imagine a winrate around 700 hours would be accurate to within +/- 1bb

It can be important when used with standard deviation. One can project long-term winnings (or loses) with relative accuracy.
I highly doubt that's the case. In the grand scheme of things 700 hours really is a short sample.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:00 PM   #3716
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

winrate is just a number that makes people feel warm and fuzzy or ****ing puke. It either makes them think they are good or bad. I remember when my winrate was sky high and I was like "LOL LIVE POKERZ" then as it has slowly decreased over this extended break even stretch (or huge ****ing downswing depending on how you measure it) it isn't such a nice and fuzzy feeling any more. Regardless, it isn't like a day job where you show up and get paid (x $/hr) and all you can do is play as good as you can and see what happens.

I mean I can probably find thousands upon thousands of dollars that were left on the table through missed value or bad calls or bad folds but there isn't much that can be done about that now. All you can do is play better. However optimal play, much like hindsight, is 20/20.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:02 PM   #3717
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Same general feeling to what 11t said.

If anything, I feel less inclined to work on my game when I am running like a god.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:09 PM   #3718
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Maybe this is just me, but I can take any chunk of 500 hours from my session logs and my winrate always falls between 12-14bb/hr, so I just go under the assumption that I'm going to make ~13bb/hr. Do you guys find similar patterns?

I've only been playing poker as my sole source of income for a year now, but using that 13bb/hr as a model has allowed me to accurately pay my bills in advance and project profits.

Obviously it's not completely accurate, but it is quite useful as long as you compensate for a reasonable margin of error.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:15 PM   #3719
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Using poker WR to calculate future earning is very optimistic thinking.

There are way too many factors involved, such as changes in poker room traffic, new sharks, dead whales, and so forth.

Plus higher your WR, lesser the likelihood of sustaining it.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:18 PM   #3720
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by DreamIsDestiny View Post
Maybe this is just me, but I can take any chunk of 500 hours from my session logs and my winrate always falls between 12-14bb/hr, so I just go under the assumption that I'm going to make ~13bb/hr. Do you guys find similar patterns?

I've only been playing poker as my sole source of income for a year now, but using that 13bb/hr as a model has allowed me to accurately pay my bills in advance and project profits.

Obviously it's not completely accurate, but it is quite useful as long as you compensate for a reasonable margin of error.
Eventually there will be a 500 hour stretch with different results. If all of your sessions had almost identical results, only then would it be possible to have that consistency forever. I don't doubt you 1 bit - so don't take it the wrong way. It is just probability and statistics that eventually the x% chance will happen where so many bad sessions (or good sessions) happen consecutively.
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Old 01-24-2013, 06:29 PM   #3721
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I would imagine a winrate around 700 hours would be accurate to within +/- 1bb
Kinda doubt it myself. My massive run good lately has destroyed any confidence I have in my winrate. At my lowest in 2012 my overall was running at about ~$21/hr and now my overall is running at almost ~$30/hr, just a mere few hundred hours later (a 3bb/hr swing).
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Old 01-24-2013, 10:52 PM   #3722
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I would imagine a winrate around 700 hours would be accurate to within +/- 1bb

Not even close. Go back in the thread, there was an estimator put out you can plug into excel to estimate your confidence. At normal SD 700 hours is enough to give you a rough idea of where you lie on the losing, breakeven, winning, crushing scale, but that's it. If your win rate is 12-14bb/hr, that's a crushing rate, it's about 98% that you are at least a solid winner (5-6bb/hr minimum) if you maintain that for 700 hours. The chance that you are doing at least 10bb/hr (a reasonable crush threshold) is more like 85%. The chance that you are doing at least 12bb/hr (your +/- 1bb/hr) is more like 60%.

Your 95% confidence interval is something like +/- 6 bb/hr at 700 hours.

And that all assumes a normal distribution and no prior information which are both suspect/bad assumptions.

For one thing, any winrate above 10bb/hr is pretty unlikely, it requires both excellent play *and* good game selection. So my prior is that any rate above 10bb/hr involves a much greater likelihood of run good than of run bad.
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Old 01-24-2013, 10:55 PM   #3723
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

no way your winrate is +/- 1bb after 700hrs... I've had my winrate go +/- 1bb after sessions
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Old 01-24-2013, 11:32 PM   #3724
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Boring question but i was wondering how many losing months you regs have had in 2012?

say guys that play 120+ hrs avg month

Im starting to put more hours in live games and trying to read as much as possible before i dive in again

Thanks
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Old 01-25-2013, 01:46 AM   #3725
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I highly doubt that's the case. In the grand scheme of things 700 hours really is a short sample.
Yep, LOL at 20k hands being a significant sample size.
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