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Old 01-03-2013, 01:21 AM   #3301
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Losing 2500 because of a full house vs quads cooler??? Absolutely no difference at all.

Losing 2500 because you played too long, got fatigued and made a stupid play. Big difference.

I have found that knowing when to quit is a +EV skill that many players lack. A meta game attribute that is extremely valuable yet almost impossible to quantify...

food for thought.
The thing with the skill of knowing when to quit; is that it can't be measured. Most people with that skill probably have mubs.
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Old 01-03-2013, 01:36 AM   #3302
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by iLikeCaliDonks View Post
The thing with the skill of knowing when to quit; is that it can't be measured. Most people with that skill probably have mubs.
Wow, this is actually gold from ILCD.

Once you start to look for reasons to quit, every single negative becomes an indicator even when it isn't.
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:04 AM   #3303
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Wow, this is actually gold from ILCD.

Once you start to look for reasons to quit, every single negative becomes an indicator even when it isn't.
Somehow you just pointed out a leak of mine that I've never even thought of.
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:32 AM   #3304
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Just play until too tilted to continue, till a time limit is reached, or until the only games left are ****ty

Your wins/losses should have nothing to do with it
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Old 01-03-2013, 02:38 AM   #3305
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by dhcg86 View Post
Just play until too tilted to continue, till a time limit is reached, or until the only games left are ****ty

Your wins/losses should have nothing to do with it
Or until you go busto
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Old 01-03-2013, 03:00 AM   #3306
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Why don't you mix in some 2/5 on the weekends or something instead of I am a "1/2 player" or "2/5 player"?
that's what I do. But right now I am not comfortable with playing 2/5 occasionally.
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:08 AM   #3307
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Everyone on this website has a winrate of 15bb+ apparently.
This. I barely read this thread anymore, because 98.2% of the winrates in here are full of ----
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Old 01-03-2013, 07:11 AM   #3308
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

my winrate has gone down the crapper since the middle of december. down more than $2500 since dec. 11.

finished the year playing 815 hours and having a profit of $10,094. it was over $13K at one point earlier in december.

$12.38 per hour. I was shooting for $15/hr. Mostly $1/$2 with some $2/$5 mixed in.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:01 AM   #3309
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My goal was to win $10k in a month, doesn't matter where it is. I've had a couple of $7k+ months before this but $10k was a good round number to strive for.

Having a goal to win $10k in a month playing $1/2 is like having a goal to win the lottery.
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Old 01-03-2013, 08:08 AM   #3310
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Having a goal to win $10k in a month playing $1/2 is like having a goal to win the lottery.
Had already gone over with him earlier.

https://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...postcount=3033

He records very biased and partial records, presumably to make himself feel good.
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Old 01-03-2013, 09:26 AM   #3311
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well, the point I was making was that nobody can reasonably expect to make $10k in a month at 1/2. Having it as a goal is exactly the same as having as a goal "have the heater of a lifetime." it's a "goal" that is essentially completely out of your hands.

I read the earlier discussion of his record keeping.

Now we see this partial record:

Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94 View Post

And I note 3 things that are odd:

1. It just stops at the magic $10k. I guess you could do that with filtering, but I don't know what software he used, and I don't see any filters in the image--if they appear in the search page, they were cropped.

2. He plays 12 days in a row in the last half of November, then no records at all for 7 days, then 13 days in a row in December. Again, not a smoking gun, but an odd pattern.

3. I noticed that two of his last 3 sessions --12/16 and 12/17-- are listed out of order.

A. A database program would not make that mistake; and
B. It shows that this record was not made contemporaneously with the sessions.

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. Here we have a claim of $10k in winnings that is backed by a record that has sessions listed out of order and shows an odd pattern of play.

So, yeah, I'm not convinced this heater actually happened.
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Old 01-03-2013, 10:41 AM   #3312
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I had an unexpectedly high winrate for 2012, winning $13,165 over 414 hours for a $31.19/hour clip. This is noticeably higher than 2011 winrate of $19.12/hour over 750 ish hours. I attribute the improvement to using those lesser hours to doing more poker studying, having a balanced life. Fwiw my winrate is actually slightly deflated for both 2011 and 2012, as I always round up to the nearest hour and subtract $10 after each session

I also think I had a lower winrate in 2011 due to putting myself in very marginal situations, like squeezing too often and raising trouble hands like kj, qt, etc in ep and mp instead of folding those preflop. This would cause me to have difficulty getting value on tpdk oop, along with getting value owned on occasion. I'm now much more positonallly conscious and I see a difference. Also I'm cbetting less with air multiway which has helped.

I'm.now rolled to start 2013 with shots at $2/5, wish me luck as I mix my usual 1/2 with $2/5, hopefully never looking back!

Last edited by Pay4Myschool; 01-03-2013 at 10:55 AM.
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Old 01-03-2013, 10:48 AM   #3313
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$31 sounds like a super solid WR for a mix of 1/2 and 2/5--congrats! Crush 2/5 this year!
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Old 01-03-2013, 10:49 AM   #3314
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Oh wait--did you do $31 at 1/2? I think I misread your post.
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Old 01-03-2013, 10:52 AM   #3315
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
Oh wait--did you do $31 at 1/2? I think I misread your post.
1/2 95+% of the time, and thanks! Played 2/5 3 times last year
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:46 AM   #3316
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I pulled that section from my full list of wins/losses which is why it goes to the $10k mark. There are no records from 11/29-12/5 because I was out of town visiting family for the week and did not play. There are no records from 12/29 to now because I've been sick and have not played all week. The spreadsheet is just basic Excel, no fancy poker-tracking programs. I don't see how having a program that tracks hours but otherwise uses the same concepts makes anything more "official". The data is only going to be as good as the user entering it and since this is all self-reporting, anyone can manipulate the data if they want to regardless of the software being used. Mpethy is right, the 12/16 and 12/17 are backwards, but both numbers are still accurate. The copy/paste had to go in two columns to fit in the screen cap which is where dates got transposed.

Winning $10k in a month was not that difficult. Playing every day would need an average win of $333 per session to do it, and I'm pretty sure that's not nearly as tough as winning the lottery. Below is an expanded version that tracks all of my wins/losses back to when I started keeping track in June, except for about 6 weeks between August-October when I was only playing 2-3 days a week and stopped keeping track for a while (not due to a downswing as SeaULater would love to believe). I know what I won between February (when I moved to LV) and June from my bank records with cash deposits, which I never make other than from poker. As the cash added up I realized I need to keep better records for tax purposes. My plan for 2013 is to keep track of every session, but can't go back in time to do that for 2012.

A sample size of 95 sessions is a pretty decent size, showing a total profit of $20,428 over about 5 months of play (6.5 months minus the 1.5 months not keeping records). This does include $1300 that I won from the Station Casinos freeroll in July, but does not include the other ~$3k in jackpot money that I've won from Station this year. That averages to $215.03 win per session, playing 4-5 days/week. An average session being 6 hours would equate to $35.84 per hour. Call it an average of 8 hours per session if you want, that would still be an average of $26.88 per hour. There is no way I have averaged 8 hours per session over 95 sessions. The rolling average win per session in my records assumes an average of 6 hours per session. 72% winning sessions, 28% losing sessions. Haters gonna hate no matter what I say, but here's my full record and some interesting (to me) graphs to go with it. FWIW, I had never played live poker before moving to LV this year, other than playing at Flamingo for a couple days on my buddy's bachelor party trip last year:









Total profit by session:



Profit/loss per session:



Rolling average hourly (assuming 6 hours/day):



Rolling average per session:


Last edited by wj94; 01-03-2013 at 11:51 AM.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:48 AM   #3317
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Interesting hourly section, considering that you don't keep track of hours.

You think we're questioning your claim because we're motivated by envy; we're not.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:52 AM   #3318
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Interesting hourly section, considering that you don't keep track of hours.

You think we're questioning your claim because we're motivated by envy; we're not.
I put the hourly on there just for you. As stated, even at 8 hours/session it is still $26/hr which is pretty solid IMO, and there is no way I could have possibly averaged 8 hours/session.
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:53 AM   #3319
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Why would you fabricate a section when you don't keep track of hours of each session?
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Old 01-03-2013, 11:56 AM   #3320
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Why would you fabricate a section when you don't keep track of hours of each session?
So that you could keep coming back to this thread and whining about how I don't keep track of hours played.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:13 PM   #3321
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It's no big deal to me whether you're accurately reporting your results. If you made 10k in a 30 day period, good for you. It means you had the heater of your life. I just think "have the heater of my life" is a silly goal, because you can't control whether you reach it, because reaching it is just a matter of getting obscenely lucky.

The more you try to claim things like "making 10k in a month wasn't that difficult," the less inclined I am to believe it. If you had posted "ZOMG, I made 10k in a month, you guys would not believe how hot I ran," I'd be way more inclined to believe that than you saying it was a goal you reached and it wasn't that difficult.

And, yeah, trying to blow off doubts about an incredible result by saying "haters gonna hate," is just lol. Nobody knew you from Adam, nor had any reason to hate you. If you have haters ITT, it's only because they don't believe you.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:17 PM   #3322
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So that you could keep coming back to this thread and whining about how I don't keep track of hours played.
So you made up "hourly" to satisfy my doubts of you. What else are you making up?
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:21 PM   #3323
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
It's no big deal to me whether you're accurately reporting your results. If you made 10k in a 30 day period, good for you. It means you had the heater of your life. I just think "have the heater of my life" is a silly goal, because you can't control whether you reach it, because reaching it is just a matter of getting obscenely lucky.

The more you try to claim things like "making 10k in a month wasn't that difficult," the less inclined I am to believe it. If you had posted "ZOMG, I made 10k in a month, you guys would not believe how hot I ran," I'd be way more inclined to believe that than you saying it was a goal you reached and it wasn't that difficult.

And, yeah, trying to blow off doubts about an incredible result by saying "haters gonna hate," is just lol. Nobody knew you from Adam, nor had any reason to hate you. If you have haters ITT, it's only because they don't believe you.
+1. A lot nicer than how I would put it =).

I am merely curious of incredible results. If you are indeed incredible, I respect it.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:35 PM   #3324
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Originally Posted by mpethybridge View Post
The more you try to claim things like "making 10k in a month wasn't that difficult," the less inclined I am to believe it. If you had posted "ZOMG, I made 10k in a month, you guys would not believe how hot I ran," I'd be way more inclined to believe that than you saying it was a goal you reached and it wasn't that difficult.

And, yeah, trying to blow off doubts about an incredible result by saying "haters gonna hate," is just lol. Nobody knew you from Adam, nor had any reason to hate you. If you have haters ITT, it's only because they don't believe you.
Has nobody here ever won $10k in a month playing 1/2 before? I've cleared $7k 3 times in 11 months without playing every day, so $10k doesn't seem that far of a stretch. Is it possible to do it every month? Of course not, but I would have to think a good player could do it at least once every couple of years. Yes, it does require running good to win that much and getting sucked out on in a few big pots will kill the totals, but it's not a ridiculous goal like $50k where you would have to be flopping a set or flush every other hand and coolering people left and right. A solid player definitely has the ability to have runs of winning $50+ per hour or $300+ per session over the course of a month or longer. It will even out eventually, but for someone winning $25-35/hr regularly it is certainly doable.

My largest winning sessions/months are mostly a function of my JJ+ hands holding up postflop since I play them very aggressively and will almost always get JJ+ overpairs all in for anything under ~150bb, as I have advocated in many of my responses to threads in this forum. It seems that a lot of people get a bit MUBSy with their big pairs and tend to bet/fold them on scary boards or when played back at when so many of those times they will hold up. Just read through a bunch of the "JJ+ on wet board" posts and see how much value people are losing by playing scared money. Yeah, many of the hands should have been bet/folded because the OP got coolered (often why they post the hand in the first place), but in general getting AI with overpairs is insanely profitable. Other than the awesomeness of flopping sets to stack someone with, anyone who plays with me regularly knows that a good majority of the big pots that I win are from one-pair hands. That is not to toot my own horn, it just pains me to see how many people, even players that I consider solid, fold overpairs and TPGK/TPTK (often face up to show their awesome folding skills) just because they got raised and they assume nobody raises without at least two pair.

Also, this is the internet, everyone is a hater.
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Old 01-03-2013, 12:51 PM   #3325
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

must be nice to run like god

at ~$30/hr you'd have to play >80 hours per week to get 10k in a month. sorry bro.
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