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Old 12-17-2012, 11:55 PM   #3201
wWizardG
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

One could surely go on an 8 buy in downswing without making any strategical errors.

It's pretty simple, really.

Suppose you get your money in the middle in 8 'coin-flip' AI situations. The specifics don't really matter-- all that matters is that you're all in, it's a coinflip, and you haven't made an error (a -EV play).

So this situation happens 8 times. What are the odds of losing 8 times in a row? It's 2^8, or 1 in 256. Of course, 7 times in a row is just 1 in 128.

As we all know, these numbers are really not that inconceivable (don't be surprised when you lose those flips).
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Old 12-18-2012, 03:44 PM   #3202
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by WhoThat808 View Post
My local game is 300 max or 100% of big stack (yes 100%). My sample size is extremely small and I am running like God over my first 89 hours. $5,747 profit for an hourly of $64.57. 19 winning sessions and 4 losing sessions. I am aware this is completely meaningless but I wanted to brag anyway. My question: What kind of win rate is sustainable for a good and great player at these stakes? Assume that I buy in the max whenever I think I am considerably better than the players with more than $300 and that I always buy in at least $300.

Edit: Also, strong join date to post ratio.
Haha, I'm with you on that one.
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Old 12-18-2012, 07:23 PM   #3203
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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I find it impossible to go on an 800bb downswing in a 100bb cap game in live poker.

You would have to be mega-tilting if your winrate is around 10-15bb/hr
lol you're so naive

or you're somehow using a different definition of "impossible"
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Old 12-18-2012, 07:28 PM   #3204
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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or you're somehow using a different definition of "impossible"
this one
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Old 12-18-2012, 07:39 PM   #3205
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Change the cap a bit and 800bb is quite easy.

W cap: on my old 12+hr sessions:
I've been into a 1 3 nl, 100bb cap game for 1700 and left a winner...
I had back to back losing sessions of 400bb (was playing bad during those two for about 2/3 of that)... And this is during a life period when I had significant volume size for lollivepoker, and was a longterm winner.

At 2 5, 200bb, I had a week w wsop in town where I went up a g, went down that+3.5k more, then in 3 sessions made it all back + 4k (had I run like dog****, I wouldve just lost more... Somne of that was aa,kk,qq holding up against worse pps ai preflop for 300-400bb pots).... Vol can be extreme in this game.
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Old 12-18-2012, 07:47 PM   #3206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wWizardG View Post
One could surely go on an 8 buy in downswing without making any strategical errors.

It's pretty simple, really.

Suppose you get your money in the middle in 8 'coin-flip' AI situations. The specifics don't really matter-- all that matters is that you're all in, it's a coinflip, and you haven't made an error (a -EV play).

So this situation happens 8 times. What are the odds of losing 8 times in a row? It's 2^8, or 1 in 256. Of course, 7 times in a row is just 1 in 128.

As we all know, these numbers are really not that inconceivable (don't be surprised when you lose those flips).
The Carolina Panthers lost 12 coin flips in a row this season before winning one.

Get a large enough sample of anything and you are bound to see statistical improbabilities.
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Old 12-18-2012, 08:03 PM   #3207
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

If you are going on 4k down swings at 2/5 you are not a very good hand reader.

Llsnl is too passive to ever go on 800bbs. Unless you play like sabr or mask its no way you should hit those swings.

Live players are too easy to read if you really play poker. I almost never see the polarizing spots people see here. Why? Because I range extremely well.
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Old 12-19-2012, 12:20 AM   #3208
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Lol icld
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Old 12-19-2012, 12:33 AM   #3209
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Lol icld
and unfortunately now I know I'm wrong once ilcd agrees with me.

The point I will continue to stand by is that I think it's more likely that people who go on a downswing this big have made a few big mistakes they wouldn't normally make. Although it certainly possible to lose 8BI by no fault of your own.

My use of the word "impossible" is obviously incorrect and I still think 1k hours of live poker is a good, yet, obviously not variance-free sample size.
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Old 12-19-2012, 01:14 AM   #3210
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

the issue isn't that you need to lose 8 coinflips in a row, you just need to be running at like 40% over a significant sample size and you'll be down huge.
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Old 12-19-2012, 01:16 AM   #3211
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

800 bbs is nothing..................
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Old 12-19-2012, 01:29 AM   #3212
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

11t, I know, but I think the 8 coin-flips in a row is an easy way to understand the concept of 'running bad.'

I'm sure that anyone would grant that losing 8 coin-flips in a row is quite plausible.
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Old 12-19-2012, 01:31 AM   #3213
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Do you guys find yourself in a lot of 50/50 situations?

When I am playing I am looking to identify the fish and I am finding myself mostly 66%-100% situations against them and getting my money in.

I can't remember the last time I voluntarily took a coin flip.

I always feel I am the best player at a 1/2 game and one of the best at a 2/5 game and I'll be damned if I am going to give a fish or a hit n runner/double up guy a 50/50 chance at my chips.
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Old 12-19-2012, 02:03 AM   #3214
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Originally Posted by LotGrinder View Post
Do you guys find yourself in a lot of 50/50 situations?

When I am playing I am looking to identify the fish and I am finding myself mostly 66%-100% situations against them and getting my money in.

I can't remember the last time I voluntarily took a coin flip.

I always feel I am the best player at a 1/2 game and one of the best at a 2/5 game and I'll be damned if I am going to give a fish or a hit n runner/double up guy a 50/50 chance at my chips.

Coin flips happen when I was trying to gain FE and failed (big draws vs. someone hitting the TOP of their range).

I find myself coinflipping 30BB stacks a decent amount once I've gotten deep; good for image, and really invokes spew when a monkey gets 90-200 in pre w/ 68s after a failed 3bet bluff and felts AK or QQ or something...
Since I have a hard enough time winning 60/40 spots in my favor, I find that I either want to be betting to generate FE or betting when I'm 75%+ ahead.
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Old 12-19-2012, 02:28 AM   #3215
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

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Coin flips happen when I was trying to gain FE and failed (big draws vs. someone hitting the TOP of their range).

I find myself coinflipping 30BB stacks a decent amount once I've gotten deep; good for image, and really invokes spew when a monkey gets 90-200 in pre w/ 68s after a failed 3bet bluff and felts AK or QQ or something...
Since I have a hard enough time winning 60/40 spots in my favor, I find that I either want to be betting to generate FE or betting when I'm 75%+ ahead.
Yeah, most the flips I am getting myself into are when I play a flush/combo draw hard or OESFD hard against top of opponents range.

I have never had an eight buy in losing streak (knocks on wood), but I guess it's possible depending on the type of style you play.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:11 AM   #3216
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My run bads are usually full of running into top of donks range over and over again.

I am definitely way ahead of their range, but way behind their actual hands when I run bad.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:23 AM   #3217
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This debate has nothing to do with me or my own winrate.

We've had a few guys with even bigger samples (and likely a lesser wr) than my own come and say they haven't had that big of a downswing. Admittedly squidface has admitted that he has had a downswing that big and I'de imagine his sample is bigger than all of ours. I just think there has to be a couple a of big mistakes that people wouldn't normally make. When we run that terribly, we play worse than normal, we're all human.

My argument is not based on a "poker robot" that makes the perfect decision all the time. Obviously none of us make the best decision all the time. I also get that your saying standard spew plays are factored into winrate, I get that.

The point I'm making is that during the 8-10BI "downswing" you are likely running bad and playing worse than you normally play.

Which equals you losing 8 buyins. You lose 4 to variance and 4 to bad play that you don't normally do. Or 5 to variance and 3 to bad plays you don't normally do. The people who post these probably only remember the losses directly correlated to variance.
+1

All my significant downswuings have been at least 50% bad play that's resulted from run bad.
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Old 12-19-2012, 03:58 AM   #3218
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If you are going on 4k down swings at 2/5 you are not a very good hand reader.

Llsnl is too passive to ever go on 800bbs. Unless you play like sabr or mask its no way you should hit those swings.

Live players are too easy to read if you really play poker. I almost never see the polarizing spots people see here. Why? Because I range extremely well.
This statement is ridiculous. Either you play in a very small $2/5 game, or you've only logged a few hundred hours and just haven't run bad yet. I've played live poker for a living for over 3 years now. More then 2 of those years playing exclusively $2/5, and I've experience two 10k downswings within that time frame. The game I play in is an uncapped game which plays big, but an 800bb swing will happen with 100% certainty if you play long enough.

My winrate, through 2k hours, in the game I play in is $52/hour and I have a standard deviation of $626/hour.

I am a big bankroll nit so I keep 40 buy-ins in casino big denomination chips with at least 12 months living expenses in a savings account at all times.
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:33 AM   #3219
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Has there been any discussion of Session "exit strategy"? Given the ups and downs of intrasession variance, it would seem a boost to win rate could be gained by ending a session at the right time within a predetermined window.
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Old 12-19-2012, 08:38 AM   #3220
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Um, that doesn't make sense. Your chance of winning the next hand should be independent of whether you've been winning or losing, only on your edge/dynamic at that moment.
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:11 AM   #3221
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This statement is ridiculous. Either you play in a very small $2/5 game, or you've only logged a few hundred hours and just haven't run bad yet. I've played live poker for a living for over 3 years now. More then 2 of those years playing exclusively $2/5, and I've experience two 10k downswings within that time frame. The game I play in is an uncapped game which plays big, but an 800bb swing will happen with 100% certainty if you play long enough.

My winrate, through 2k hours, in the game I play in is $52/hour and I have a standard deviation of $626/hour.

I am a big bankroll nit so I keep 40 buy-ins in casino big denomination chips with at least 12 months living expenses in a savings account at all times.
10k downswings are ridiculous. I'm talking about good players. Someone who uses, math, ranges for different gears, psychology, midstream adjusting and able to control tilt.

10k is lolaughable.

Also I have over 3500 hours at 2/5. Never played uncapped games. So your analysis was very off base for this topic.
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Old 12-19-2012, 09:13 AM   #3222
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No it's not.

Those who have big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are good enough to have a big edge and get paid when running good to balance for bad runs.

Those who have no big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are running hot and haven't had a genuine bad run yet.
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Old 12-19-2012, 10:14 AM   #3223
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re: Winrates, bankrolls, and finances

Quote:
Originally Posted by LotGrinder View Post
Do you guys find yourself in a lot of 50/50 situations?

When I am playing I am looking to identify the fish and I am finding myself mostly 66%-100% situations against them and getting my money in.

I can't remember the last time I voluntarily took a coin flip.

I always feel I am the best player at a 1/2 game and one of the best at a 2/5 game and I'll be damned if I am going to give a fish or a hit n runner/double up guy a 50/50 chance at my chips.
coin flips with dead money in the pot = hugely +EV.
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Old 12-19-2012, 10:18 AM   #3224
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Those who have big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are good enough to have a big edge and get paid when running good to balance for bad runs.

Those who have no big swings and still have 50+ hourlies are running hot and haven't had a genuine bad run yet.
I like. my sample size is small but I have lost 6 buyins over 2 sessions at 25 and my win rate is over 50
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Old 12-19-2012, 10:23 AM   #3225
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it also totally depends on the game flow we are playing, in an aggro game we will be taking much larger swings
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